MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - JANUARY 19: Fernando Mendoza #15 of the Indiana Hoosiers celebrates after defeating Miami Hurricanes 27-21 in the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium on January 19, 2026 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) | Getty Images

NFL Draft week is here, and so is my lone full first-round mock draft of the cycle. With the Chicago Bears not selecting until 25, it’s been a different process this year, figuring out how a muddied crop of first-round talent stacks up against each team’s needs. Due to the ever-evolving NIL landscape in college football, the number of early-round talent declaring for the draft continues to shrink.

With that said, I’ll do my best to project how the first round will go and some thoughts behind each pick. Without further delay, let’s jump into it!

1. Las Vegas Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)

Picks two through 32 might have questions, but thanks to Mendoza’s breakout season for the Hoosiers, one pick is set in stone. For a second straight cycle, the quarterback talent is lacking, but that won’t stop the team with the No. 1 pick from taking who they view as the best of the bunch. Mendoza is an interesting player: He doesn’t possess any elite traits, but he’s very good in multiple areas. Following the signing of veteran Kirk Cousins, the hope is that they’ll be able to insulate him enough that even if he’s forced into action early, he’ll be set up better than the last two No. 1 overall picks were in their situations. Next up: Fixing the offensive line and adding skill position talent.

2. New York Jets DE David Bailey (Texas Tech)

Thanks to Oregon’s Dante Moore going back to school for another season, the Jets might be able to avoid putting another highly drafted quarterback in a bad situation. With head coach Aaron Glenn’s future up in the air, New York would be best served taking the additional capital they’ve collected from trades and putting that into the rest of the roster. Heading into draft night, the debate between Bailey and Arvel Reese is an interesting one. Bailey is the more proven pass rusher, but Reese possesses Micah Parsons-like upside. I’m not sure they can go wrong with either player, but Bailey makes the most sense to me.

3. Dallas Cowboys *Via Arizona Cardinals LB/Edge Arvel Reese (Ohio State)

Trade: Cowboys send picks Nos. 12, 112, and a 2027 1st Rounder to Arizona for No. 3

Although I’m not expecting many trades in the early part of the draft (thanks to the lack of top-end talent, it has been rumored that Jerry Jones is looking to make a splash early on Thursday night. Less than a year after trading away Parsons and trading for Quinnen Williams, Jerry’s inability to stay calm will strike again. This time, they’ll be looking to recreate the magic found when they took Parsons at No. 12 overall five classes ago. Reese doesn’t possess the same bend as most pass rushers in this class, but first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker will get his hands on the most versatile defensive piece in this draft class. While there’s some risk involved, this is the type of swing required to get the Cowboys back into contention in the NFC East for 2026 and beyond.

4. Tennessee Titans RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)

If by some chance one of Bailey or Reese falls to the Titans at 4, it’s an easy choice to run to the podium and make the pick. Assuming that doesn’t happen, first-year head coach Robert Saleh’s defensive-minded influence might need to take a back seat for at least the first round. By all accounts, Love is one of the most talented players in this class, and one of the best ways to help out a young quarterback is to have a do-it-all running back out of the backfield. There are multiple ways that Tennessee could go here, but with the lack of value at the top-end of this class, Love makes the most sense, lack of positional value and all.

5. New York Giants LB Sonny Styles (Ohio State)

There are multiple ways the Giants could go, especially with the added capital they received at No. 10 overall after trading Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals. That said, there’s long been a rumor that John Harbaugh loves both Styles and Caleb Downs. Both players should be in play here, but linebacker is the bigger need, so that’s where they go with their first pick in five selections.

6. Cleveland Browns WR Carnell Tate (Ohio State)

Find you an NFL team that loves drafting local products as much as the Browns do with Ohio State. At No. 6, the Browns go back to that well and grab the best receiver in the draft. The reality is, Cleveland needs help all over the roster, but they’ll be aided by having another pick coming up in 18 spots. For now, they continue to build around a future quarterback, even if 2026 could be another tough season on the eyes.

7. Washington Commanders WR Jordan Tyson (Arizona State)

In an ideal world, the Browns would take someone like Spencer Fano, leaving Tate to fall right into the Commanders’ laps. This isn’t a perfect world, and I have no idea what I’m doing in this mock, which means we have our first “surprise” pick of the night with Tyson going slightly higher than expected. There’s been plenty of smoke around both the Giants and Rams for Tyson, which makes this pick have a bit of a trickle-down effect, but I’m here for it.

8. New Orleans Saints DE Ruben Bain (Miami)

Despite a report surfacing about Bain’s role in a car accident that left a 22-year-old woman dead, early reports suggest that Bain’s draft stock will be much more related to his length concerns, rather than a tragic accident that happened two years prior. That said, this pass-rushing group is a “pick your flavor” type of class, and with Cameron Jordan’s future in New Orleans in doubt, Bain might offer the best value. Receiver could be another option here, but the pass rush needs more help than any other spot on the roster.

9. Kansas City Chiefs CB Mansoor Delane (LSU)

Between edge rusher, cornerback, and receiver, the Chiefs should have some options at No. 9. While it’s weird to see the Chiefs with such a high first-round pick, it’s also worth remembering they hold another selection later in the round. For now, they address cornerback with Delane, who could quickly become one of the better young cornerbacks in the league—next on the list- Receiver.

10. New York Giants (Via Cincinnati Bengals) S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

Originally, I had the Giants taking a receiver here, but with the Commanders surprising and taking Tyson, New York will go back to the Ohio State well and complete the duo with Downs at 10. This is a great value pick and one that should take the Giants’ defense to a new level. The rest of the draft can focus more on the offensive side of the ball and on getting second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart some more help.

11. Miami Dolphins OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)

The Dolphins are in the early stages of a rebuild with a brand-new regime, but they also invested quite a bit in newly signed quarterback Malik Willis. They’d be smart to rebuild the offensive line around him, and that starts with the best tackle in the draft. Even with some back concerns, this is a great value pick at No. 11.

12. Arizona Cardinals *Via Dallas Cowboys OT Spencer Fano (Utah)

Similar to the Dolphins, the Cardinals are in the early stages of a needed rebuild, and with no future quarterback on the roster, they should take the smart route and build around one. There are multiple ways they could go with this pick, but Fano gives them the opportunity to find their bookend to Paris Johnson Jr., which will be a great setup for...

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