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Discussion: Some much needed New Jersey rainfall is looking promising for the next few days, especially Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. For the last few months, most rainfall has occurred from frontal systems and training thunderstorms. This opportunity is more of a synoptic-scale opportunity, what you sometimes hear referred to as a synoptic rainstorm.

Discussion: I apologize in advance how this post might contribute towards summer shore traffic, but it looks like one of the best mid-summer weekends I’ve ever seen. The cold front came through yesterday (Wednesday) and cleared a lot of humidity out. Cold fronts, this time of year, have greater impacts on reducing humidity rather than temperatures. But dry 80...

Discussion: The image above illustrates my best approximation of the warm front (red), cold front (blue) and today’s main cluster of thunderstorms (black).

The warm front is almost through NJ (moving SW to NE). It just sparked a cell for NENJ that is currently moving out. Notice how soupy is feels on the other side of the warm front. Dew point tempe...

Discussion: Before we continue, I want to say that life-threatening/damaging winds from severe weather (straight-line or tornado) are a bad thing. I take my discussions very seriously when including such in my forecast, even if just a small, isolated threat of occurring within a larger less-severe stormy air mass. If there’s a possibility of severe winds and ...

Discussion: I want to touch on yesterday (Thursday) before looking at tomorrow. As someone who spent almost 40 years of my life growing up in the Manahawkin area, I can only remember a few times where that much water fell out of the sky in only a few hours of thunderstorm training. One of them is September of 2006 which dropped 10 inches+ in ...