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Title of Virginia Storm Chasing: "Virginia Storm Chasing | Yes, there are severe storms in the Old Dominion!"
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Barring tropical remnants (not likely given a strong El Nino) Saturday September 5th may well be the final chase of this year given climatology plus a busy personal schedule this month. Therefore I decided to go all out for today’s setup, which was given a broad brush Slight Risk by the Storm Prediction Center:
Two mesoscale convective systems (MCS) were crossin...
I wasn’t positive that today’s setup would bring a chasing potential. The morning convective allowing model runs were all over the map and clock, with uncertainties regarding timing, placement, and even whether there would be storms. With a strong cold forecast to cross the Appalachians and plow into humid air the Storm Prediction had issued this Day 1 convective outlook:
...Under the current northwest flow regime many storm complexes have formed, dumped lots of rain and wind over the Appalachians, and then dissipated west of the Blue Ridge crest. I was wary of today’s setup repeating those results, even with the SPC’s Day 1 outlook:
A slow moving front was hanging over I-64, with areas south of that corridor remaining hot and steam...
Today was supposed to be mostly sunny, hot, sticky, and dry, with perhaps scattered afternoon and evening storms. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) thwarted that forecast, rampaging across the Appalachians and then into the Old Dominion. When I noticed the convection not dissipating as it approached Botetourt County I motored north to a vantage point just off U.S. Route 11....
This time of year popup storms (“whack-a-moles”) can be very frustrating to chase. However, after some decent convection on Saturday I decided to pull the string and give chase to today’s setup. There was plenty of instability and moisture, but upper level winds were pretty weak so shear wasn’t a player. I kept an eye on radar trends and finally headed down the driveway short...