Virginia Storm Chasing

I wasn’t positive that today’s setup would bring a chasing potential. The morning convective allowing model runs were all over the map and clock, with uncertainties regarding timing, placement, and even whether there would be storms. With a strong cold forecast to cross the Appalachians and plow into humid air the Storm Prediction had issued this Day 1 convective outlook:

Under the current northwest flow regime many storm complexes have formed, dumped lots of rain and wind over the Appalachians, and then dissipated west of the Blue Ridge crest. I was wary of today’s setup repeating those results, even with the SPC’s Day 1 outlook:

A slow moving front was hanging over I-64, with areas south of that corridor remaining hot and steam...

Today was supposed to be mostly sunny, hot, sticky, and dry, with perhaps scattered afternoon and evening storms. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) thwarted that forecast, rampaging across the Appalachians and then into the Old Dominion. When I noticed the convection not dissipating as it approached Botetourt County I motored north to a vantage point just off U.S. Route 11....

This time of year popup storms (“whack-a-moles”) can be very frustrating to chase. However, after some decent convection on Saturday I decided to pull the string and give chase to today’s setup. There was plenty of instability and moisture, but upper level winds were pretty weak so shear wasn’t a player. I kept an eye on radar trends and finally headed down the driveway short...

After allowing the frustration settle from Tuesday’s bust it’s time to look back to see what else I could have done. This graphic shows the low level rotation track from two supercells:

I chased supercell #1. It had garnered a tornado warning further northwest over the West Virginia mountains, and it maintained dec...