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Virginia Storm Chasing

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Title of Virginia Storm Chasing: "Virginia Storm Chasing | Yes, there are severe storms in the Old Dominion!"

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Ponderings of an older storm chaser

Following yesterday’s (3/16) lack of success I’ve had time to process what happened along with what I might have done differently. Yes, it was an SPC Moderate Risk, and yes, I’ve had little luck under that regime in previous chases. But, given that yesterday was the first chase of the 2026 season for me, I suppose I was too eager to go out and observe some convective wonders....


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#vawx The ol’ White Family Moderate Risk curse raises its ugly head again

Today’s (Monday, 3/16) setup was characterized by just about every weather outlet known to man as a volatile one. The Storm Prediction Center issued an almost unheard of Day 2(!) Moderate Risk across the Virginia Piedmont:

But when I saw a Moderate Risk was going to be posted I cringed. Almost all my experiences with Moderates have been very frustrating and not ...


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#vawx A dynamic setup on Monday

Monday, March 16th, looks to be a very interesting – and potentially dangerous – convective setup across the Piedmonts of Virginia and the Carolinas. All the severe weather ingredients will be in place: Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture (the SLIM acronym). At this point the chasing potential boils down to timing and storm motions. As of this morning model solutions vary ...


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More fuel to the potential "fire” on Monday

The model solutions for Monday March 16th are garnering lots of attention from the weather world. First of all, SPC has actually updated their Day 4 outlook, which is unheard of. The severe risk, which will likely become an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5), has expanded considerably in areal coverage:

Next, the NAM is shouting and waving its hands like it did for Fe...


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#vawx Next up, Monday?

Yesterday – Wednesday March 11th – the only severe storms in Virginia occurred well north of the I-64 corridor, with damage reports in the northern Shenandoah Valley. With no obvious convective trigger I’d been scratching my head about the Marginal and Slight Risks posted across areas further south. And apparently I wasn’t the only local weather weenie doing so. SPC forecaste...


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