This story appears in the September 2026 issue of Utah Business. Subscribe.

Throughout Utah’s history, large families have helped power one of the nation’s strongest economies. Now, Utah is having fewer children than it needs to replace its population. In 2024, the state’s total fertility rate fell to 1.8 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 — a demographic shift that could have significant consequences for Utah’s economy.

Fertility rates in flux: County fertility rates decline but remain high

Utah’s decline has been particularly stark, with the state’s general fertility rate falling from 92.8 births per 1,000 women ages 15-44 in 2005 to 80 in 2014 and 59.9 in 2024, according to the National Center for Health Statistics at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And there are few signs that the rate will increase.

“That’s really caught a lot of people’s attention,” says Emily Harris, senior demographer at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

For an economy that has long benefited from a growing, young population, fewer births today eventually means fewer Utah-born workers, consumers and families driving growth tomorrow. Migration can help fill that gap, but it also means Utah’s future growth will increasingly depend on attracting people rather than simply producing them.

Consequences measured in decades

Utah’s shifting demographics have implications for everything from workforce availability to housing, but some of those consequences will take decades to play out.

“Fertility and mortality are really slow-moving processes, so it’s not something that just happens in the blink of an eye,” Harris says.

Ten years into a fertility decline often looks like schools closing, while workforce impacts don’t begin to manifest until about 20 years in. Housing impacts can show up even later.

In Utah, the canary in the coal mine of school closures is already here. A combination of falling birth rates and families being priced out of downtown caused the Salt Lake City School District to close four elementary schools in 2024 and prepare to close more as early as 2027. A report commissioned by the district found that overall, district enrollment has dropped 24% since 2016. The report predicts elementary enrollment will drop by another 14% over the next 10 years.

Ben Crabb, chief economist for the Utah Department of Workforce Services, says this smaller cohort of children is the reverse of the baby boom of 1946-1964. Eight decades after it began, that shift in fertility rates is still felt in the workforce as baby boomers retire in waves, putting a strain on pension systems and leaving knowledge gaps behind.

“In Utah, it’s a little bit more mitigated. Subsequent generations after the boomers have still been pretty sizable,” Crabb says.

As the state’s fertility advantage wanes, however, there will be fewer young workers to soften the blow if the state can’t entice young people to move in from other states.

Economic expectations when you’re not expecting

Crabb says one of the places the current demographic imbalance shows up is in healthcare, through shortages in positions such as home aides and nurses.

“We have this older population that is living longer than any generation has lived before … so our community needs are shifting,” he says. “We used to be much more centered and focused on the K-12 population, and now we’re seeing a lot more community needs in healthcare services and different kinds of housing geared toward smaller households and less independent living.”

Those needs are expected to increase as birth rates continue to decline.

Crabb predicts advances in productivity through automation and AI will insulate some industries from struggling with workforce shortages caused by lower birth rates across the country. Industries that will be hit harder include jobs that are difficult to outsource to a machine, such as plumbing or electrical work.

Joey Gilbert, president and CEO of the Associated General Contractors of Utah (AGC), says the construction industry is already seeing labor challenges that impact construction timelines as older workers retire from the skilled trades at a faster rate than new workers are becoming licensed.

“Construction is a little different than some industries because it takes time to develop experienced craft workers, superintendents, estimators and project managers. We cannot replace that experience overnight,” he says.

While migration into the state or into the country can be part of the solution, Gilbert says one thing AGC is focused on is helping introduce young people to construction careers earlier through stronger career and technical education programs, apprenticeships, work-based learning, and helping parents and students understand the benefits of a career in the trades.

A 2025 survey by AGC found that workforce shortages are the leading cause of delays in construction projects, creating a ripple effect to other crucial industries such as housing.

“This is not just a construction industry issue,” Gilbert says. “It will have a broader impact on Utah’s economy and quality of life.”

The migration factor

New babies aren’t the only way to grow a state’s population. As Utah’s birth rate declines, the state has still been growing through migration, particularly as the rise of remote work has given people the freedom to move to states that better fit their lifestyle or budget.

This is where Utah’s other strengths come into play, as its strong economy and business-friendly reputation, good schools, outdoor recreation and other assets attract people from other states.

Department of Workforce Services data shows that as of 2023, 60.7% of Utah’s population was born in Utah. More people continue to move into Utah than out of it each year, with a net migration of 19,233 from July 2024 to July 2025, contributing to a total population growth of 44,351. Utah County accounted for about 36% of the state’s population growth.

Harris, from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, says migration could be one contributing factor to Utah’s fertility rate decrease in recent years. Research shows that big life changes, such as a cross-country move, can cause people to delay having children, and moving away from the support of extended family can also make people less likely to have children.

Other cultural and economic factors also appear to be driving the change, Harris says. Much of the decline in fertility in Utah and the rest of the United States has been driven by the drop in teen births and births to women ages 20-24 as it becomes commonplace for women to put off childbearing until their late twenties and beyond. Rising costs of living, daycare shortages and other economic issues can also discourage large families.

“We know that businesses can’t thrive in the state of Utah unless their employees can be employed.”
Emily Bell McCormick

What can be done?

Birth rates that have decreased can go back up, and there are those working to boost family affordability, which could encourage Utahns to have more children.

The Policy Project, a Utah-based nonprofit, focuses on “upstream” solutions that prevent problems through thoughtful policy changes. Founder Emily Bell McCormick says supporting families is one area of focus. They have worked with legislative partners on family-friendly bills in recent years that have included the Child Tax Credit and expanded maternity leave for state employees.

“This problem does not solve itself,” she says. “We have to put in investment, and it can’t be these tiny little token things. We’ll invest hundreds of millions of dollars in freeways. … We need to shift that investment toward helping our families.”

Some couples simply don’t want children, she says, but The Policy Project’s interviews with people across the state have also found couples who are open to ha...

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