Democratic control of both chambers of the US Congress could complicate Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts to secure sanctions relief and advanced American fighter jets, former Turkish diplomats said, testing Ankara’s reliance on its relationship with US President Donald Trump.

Democrats secured control of the House of Representatives and Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to the United Press International (UPI) news agency.

The new Congress takes office in January, giving Democrats control of committees that scrutinize arms sales, foreign policy and government spending.

Ankara is seeking to return to the US-led F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, from which it was removed in 2019 after buying Russia’s S-400 air defense system. Washington says the Russian system could compromise the aircraft’s sensitive technology. The purchase also triggered US sanctions on Turkey’s defense procurement agency in 2020, and US law bars F-35 transfers unless conditions concerning the S-400 are met.

For Ankara, the result raises questions about whether Trump can deliver on his stated willingness to lift defense sanctions and consider F-35 sales. The election itself does not cancel existing deals or alter those legal restrictions.

Former Turkish diplomat Haşim Tekineş, a researcher at the Brussels-based Institute for Diplomacy and Economy, argued in a YouTube analysis of the results that Erdoğan’s personal relationship with Trump had shaped Ankara’s expectations of US defense cooperation. A politically weakened president, he said, would face greater difficulty delivering those benefits.

Trump has frequently praised Erdoğan and emphasized their personal rapport. Hosting him at the White House in September 2025, Trump said they had remained friends during his years out of office and described the Turkish leader as a “tough man” who did “an amazing job in his country.”

During his visit to Ankara for the NATO summit in July, Trump again praised Erdoğan, saying they had “chemistry,” and pledged to lift sanctions while expressing openness to F-35 sales.

“We don’t want to sanction friends,” he said, linking the prospect of sanctions relief to the close relationship.

Selim Kuneralp, Turkey’s former permanent representative to the European Union, offered a starker assessment. Writing on X, he argued that the government would have to abandon any remaining hope of securing congressional backing for military sales, particularly for F-35s.

“The Trump card can no longer be played,” he wrote.

F-35 hopes face political and legal obstacles

Ankara has continued to pursue a breakthrough. Turkey’s Defense Ministry said on October 15 that talks were continuing over six F-35s built for Turkey and called for the removal of sanctions and other restrictions on its defense industry.

In December 2020 Trump’s first administration imposed sanctions on the Presidency of the Defense Industry (SSB), Turkey’s defense procurement agency, and four officials under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The measures included a ban on US export licenses and authorizations to the SSB.

The F-35 restrictions are separate. The Congressional Research Service (CRS), Congress’s nonpartisan research arm, explains that the fiscal 2020 defense authorization law permits the administration to waive the transfer ban 90 days after certifying that Turkey no longer possesses the S-400 or associated equipment, materials or personnel.

Turkey must also provide credible assurances against reacquiring the system and must not have acquired additional Russian defense equipment that could compromise the F-35.

Lifting CAATSA sanctions would therefore not automatically clear the way for F-35 deliveries.

Democratic control also does not mean unanimous opposition to a deal. An August CRS report noted that Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Sen. Mike Rounds had welcomed Turkish access to F-35s if concerns over the S-400 were resolved. Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, however, questioned whether moving the Russian system elsewhere would resolve the security concerns.

The practical issue for Ankara is whether it can reach an arrangement that satisfies US law and reassures skeptical lawmakers while retaining White House support.

KAAN and F-16s are different cases

Kuneralp also warned that the election result could hurt KAAN, the fighter being developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries. The project’s early aircraft use US-made General Electric F110 engines, leaving it dependent on American export approvals while a Turkish engine is developed.

However, the project has already cleared an important hurdle. Turkish Aerospace chief executive Mehmet Demiroğlu told Breaking Defense in July that the company had secured an export license for engines intended for production aircraft. That followed congressional scrutiny, including criticism from Gregory Meeks, the senior Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

That approval predates the election.

The F-16 purchase is also distinct from Turkey’s bid for F-35s. The Biden administration notified Congress in January 2024 of a proposed package covering 40 new F-16s and upgrades for 79 existing aircraft, initially valued at $23 billion, as recorded in the Congressional Record.

The election result does not itself reverse that process.

More scrutiny, with limits on Congress’s power

Democrats will be able to use hearings, requests for information and legislation to press the administration over its dealings with Ankara. Congress can also seek to block arms sales or challenge certain sanctions-relief decisions, although the available procedures depend on the legal authority used.

Trump retains substantial executive authority and the power to veto legislation. Overriding a veto requires two-thirds support among members present and voting in each chamber, meaning a Democratic majority alone does not guarantee that Congress can stop a deal the president supports.

The disagreements extend beyond Russian weapons.

The CRS has identified Turkey’s ties with Russia, tensions with Greece and Israel and its domestic political record as issues affecting debate over closer cooperation. The incoming majority’s specific approach to Turkey, however, remains to be established.

Iran policy carries security and economic stakes

The new Congress could also challenge Trump’s handling of the Iran war, a conflict with direct implications for Turkey’s neighborhood and economy.

Speaking at the Middle East Institute on October 28, Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy warned that Trump appeared to be preparing another military campaign after the election.

He urged Democrats to use Congress’s spending powers to deny funding for continued war if they won control, while acknowledging that some members of his party might resist that approach.

An effort to limit renewed fighting could benefit Ankara by reducing regional security risks and pressure on energy costs. Turkey remains heavily dependent on imported fuel, making disruption to regional supplies an economic concern as well as a foreign policy issue.

But the election does not immediately change military operations, and Murphy’s comments underline the potential divisions over using funding legislation to constrain the president.

For Ankara, stronger congressional checks would not necessarily eliminate the risks of renewed conflict. Özgür Özdamar, a professor at Bilkent University, told BBC Turkish that a renewed Trump focus on Iran could bring additional demands on Turkey and that another war could harm the country.

Ankara would still retain leverage, according to Riccardo Gasco, foreign policy coordinator at the Istanbul Political Research Institute. Speaking to BBC Turkish, he said Turkey’s role in Syria, Black Sea security and regional diplomacy would give it bargaining power in its dealings with Washington.

The post Democratic sweep puts Erdoğan’s reliance on Trump to the test appeared first on Turkish Minute.

Turkish Minute

Message History

Delivery option(s)