The big picture remains unchanged: I still expect a bear market, with a buyable 3.5-year Hurst cycle low in Q3 2026. The 20-week cycle low arrived on schedule—just one day after the ideal March 27 (Fri) window outlined in my 2026 forecast. Chart 1: The new 20-week cycle could run higher into late May. The current 40-day cycle is now about halfway through.I di...

The latest developments indicate that the US war on Iran has entered a temporary pause, with no major events reported in the days following the Islamabad negotiations. This lull, occurring approximately four to five days after the talks, suggests the ceasefire functions as a strategic reset rather than a permanent resolution. » On the home front in the US, Trump has asked f...

The daily chart of the SPY has broken above the all-time high. While this is positive for the bulls, the rally is becoming increasingly climactic, raising the likelihood of near-term profit-taking. Today is forming a climactic bull bar following yesterday's doji bull bar. That doji increases the probability of a pullback to yesterday's high within the next one to three trading d...

The truest words were from Nietzsche when he said that any man who knows too much he can't fit in anywhere. And that's the curse of awareness. Once you start looking beneath the surface, you realize the whole world isn’t so simple. You begin to see people for who they really are—and their games they play, their fake confidence, their ulterior motives. And you realize this ...

Historical S&P 500 data shows that sharp 10% rallies over a 10-day span tend to exhibit strong follow-through. On average, returns have been approximately +0.6% after one week, +2.5% after one month, and +17% over the following year.Rapid 10%+ bounces in the S&P 500 (weekly candles), 1980 to 2026.A review of the weekly S&P 500 chart from 1980 to 2026 highlights multi...