The Outthinking Investor

AI has the potential to bring a host of benefits to society and the global economy. It has fueled optimism around productivity, disinflation, and debt sustainability. But like many innovations that came before it, AI also brings a new set of challenges. The same technology that might boost economic growth and lift people out of poverty could also serve as a tool for cyberwarf...

Adam Smith introduced his concept of the "invisible hand" in the 18th century, offering a metaphor for how self-interest and competition guide a free-market economy. The case could be made that government policy is an increasingly crucial force in shaping markets today, particularly amid heightened geoeconomic competition and a resurgence in industrial policy. In this way, in...

The AI-driven capex cycle might be the biggest investment story of the past century. The five largest hyperscalers were on track to spend around $800 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, and as a share of U.S. GDP, AI capex has already eclipsed the dot-com boom of the 1990s. Chips are at the center of the AI frenzy – the same chips that also guide precision munitions and pow...