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The Capital Spectator

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Message History

The relatively weak performance of shares in the homebuilder industry for the past two calendar years is, on first glance, surprising. A long-running under-investment in home building has created a housing shortage at a time of a demographic-drive rise in demand. But holding an ETF that tracks shares in the homebuilding industry has only matched the return of the broad equity...


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The ledger of stock market’s winners and losers is highlighting a substantially different race so far in 2026, based on a review equity sectors. The year is still young and so it’s unclear if a durable change in leadership is unfolding relative to last year’s bull run. But for now, it’s obvious that sentiment has shifted in favor of shares in the materials and energy sectors,...


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The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade near a fair value estimate, based on the average estimate of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com. Today’s update shows an ongoing extension of the near-neut...


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It’s still too early to draw conclusions about how or if the new year will differ from 2025 from a US equity market perspective. But a possible early clue that a shift is underway can be gleaned from reviewing performances for US equity factors so far in 2026.

We’re still less than two trading weeks into the year and so a boatload of caveats accompanies any...


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