The war with Iran appears headed for some form of negotiated settlement. The main uncertainties are timing and details. But the longer the conflict lasts—and the longer the Iranian regime survives—the outlook, as interpreted by The Capital Spectator, is that a decisive US victory, defined as capitulation by Tehran, becomes less likely. The implication of this forecast: a mess...

The US stock market closed at a record high on Friday (Apr. 17), but a few days ago is ancient history when the firehose of war news can reshape investor sentiment by the hour. Right on cue, the trading week ahead has plenty of fresh shape-shifting headlines to process and decide if last week’s optimism revival still resonates.

Among the highlights over the...

● Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III
Shyam Sankar and Madeline Hart

Markets are pricing in higher odds that the war with Iran has ended, but even if that proves true, the economic effects of the conflict will linger for months, if not years.

Most of the world’s attention is focused on the immediate drama of conflict—military attacks, closures, and sanctions. But the most destabilizing effects of war in the Persian Gulf don’t un...

In another display of resilience, the stock market rebounded to a record high on Thursday following the recent correction. The drawdown wasn’t particularly unusual, or unexpected, given the geopolitical risk lurking in the background. But the recovery from the low was notable for its speed.

The latest cycle of peaking and recovery cut the S&P 500 Index by 9...