The Capital Spectator

The Iran conflict continues to unsettle the outlook for the US economy, but the effects of the Middle East crisis may be hard to spot in this week’s second‑quarter GDP report. The government’s initial estimate is expected to roughly match Q1’s moderate 2.1% real annualized gain, based on the median of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator, with the Bureau of Eco...

The CAPE that Cried Wolf
Dino Palazzo (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
May 2026

The Capital Spectator’s Takeaway
The paper reports that traditional

The war with Iran is bad news for the global economy, but it’s lifting the fortunes of most energy stocks, led by oil refiners, according to a set of ETFs. The world has had a painful reminder that fossil fuels from the Middle East can’t be ignored. At the same time, some corners of energy have taken a hit — the nuclear power industry is the major downside outlier since the c...

In late February, the US 10-year Treasury yield was trending lower, dipping below 4.0% on the final trading day of the month. The macro outlook at the time suggested the benchmark yield would dip even lower in the coming weeks, a view supported by the downside trending behavior that month. But on Feb. 28, the bombs started falling on Iran, an event that reversed the 10-year y...

The momentum risk factor has been leading the field in recent history, but there are signs that a rotation may be underway, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (July 20).

As a new phase of the Iran conflict heats up—reigniting concerns about macro effects—there are hints that the leadership profile in the factor space is shifting. The analysis ...