Bid Landscaping series - Part 1: Learning the Win Curve from the Auctions We Lost · Part 2 (this post): From Win Curve to Bidding, Pacing, and Its Limits Part 1 built the object: for a given context, the win curve $W(b)=\Pr(\text{win}\mid \text{bid } b)=1-S(b)$, estimated with Kaplan-Meier from wins (which reveal the clearing price exactly) and losses (right-censored at our bid)...
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