I hope you are enjoying the pleasant morning and early afternoon. But change is a coming! A strong cold front will push down the eastern Sierra in a slider like system. These systems are very hard to predict when it comes to precipitation, but we are thinking less than 6 inches for the Carson Range. Here is the forecast for late to tomorrow night:

The good news: high pressure is going to take over and our temps will quickly recover. We could even see some above average temperatures by next weekend. Here is the forecast for late Friday night (4/7):

This winter has been one for the ages. Ironically, this is the 2nd snowiest winter for the Sierra behind the winter of 1958. It has also been much colder than average, which means the snowpack is sticking around much later than usual. As my friend Sven mentioned in his last post , Mammoth has announced they will be open through July! Here are some charts that really illustrate the type of winter we have had. Remember, most California reservoirs are now completely full!

Do not look for a quick warmup, here is the temp outlook for the next couple of weeks, which is almost laughable ... almost:

Mother Nature is just toying with us, obviously!

Stay Tuned ...

Winters tight grip on the Tahoe area will continue into the foreseeable future. We have a series of storms and reenforcing cold fronts that are stacked up and waiting to continue the onslaught on the Sierra and Tahoe especially.

This is a cooler storm, will likely produce snow above 6,000 feet but those levels could drop as well. For now looks like rain for the valley. This storm will send waves at us following the main front for a few days.

Monday 4/3

Finally, here is the precip forecast for the next couple of weeks. Amazingly, the Central Sierra around Mammoth is looking at another 10-12 feet of snow. The western crest should see 6-8 feet while the Carson range is in the 3-5 foot range.

After several years of mostly below average precipitation and above average temperatures, Ma Nature is doing her very typical catch up act. Averages exist for a reason and really have not changed since we started keeping records. So we were due for above average precip and below average temps. Ma Nature has us covered.

Some of the snow pictures are truly unbelievable.

Ok, back to current weather. After a few days where our temperatures finally got to average, another cold front moved in last night and is reenforcing as we speak. We have several storms in the next 10 days, but these storms are nothing like what we have been seeing.

Here is what we are seeing:

Monday 3/27

Again, this is not a huge storm but does have a moisture tap. Rain for the valleys and snow levels will be variable between 6,000 and at time 7,500 feet.

I want to emphasize that we will be receiving constant waves of precip and cold air through the middle of next week (12 days).

Then .... well I don't want to jinx anything, but we are seeing a chance for a warm up around the 30th of March. If this holds true, we could see significantly above average temperatures.

Finally, over the next 10 days or so, here is the forecasted, liquid precip:

The western Sierra will see 6-10 additional feet at the crest. For Mt. Rose, somewhere between 18 and 36 inches. The Sierra around Yosemite and Mammoth could be in for another 10 feet. They have been absolutely pummeled this year.

Stay Tuned ...

A very powerful jet stream is pulling tropical moisture from the South Pacific and sending it up into a trough of low pressure and dumping it all over California and the Lake Tahoe area.

We will continue to see heavy rain for the valleys and heavy snow for the mountains in the 6,500 to 8,000 foot elevation. Snow levels will continue to fluctuate through the weekend as we will receive several waves of additional precipitation. Snow levels during these warmer events will fluctuate and are very difficult to predict. Mt. Rose will receive all snow and should pick up an addition 1-3 feet over the weekend to go with the 2 feet they have already received. This powerful jet, which goes right through the Tahoe area will continue bring strong winds. 

But that is not all. Another large, warm and moist storm is on tap for Tuesday:

Following the storm on Monday, it looks like more cold air is headed our way, so if you are looking for spring, you will have to be more patient.

Here is the liquid precipitation forecast for the next couple of weeks:

We are anticipating a significant pattern change starting around Friday, March 10th. We will transition from a cold, stormy pattern to a very warm, stormy pattern. The winter of 22/23 continues. 

The storm train starting on Friday is born in the south and will knock this Arctic air out of our area and pack significant tropical moisture. Snow levels will start very high with several of these storms.

Currently, we have a snowpack as low as the foothills and a very significant snowpack in the mountains. This winter has been much colder than average so our typical snow melt has simply not occurred. Which is a good thing. Unless of course we start to experience heavy rain at high elevations. This series of storms could bring some flooding concerns.

Here is a look at the forecasted storms along with dates and times:

Wednesday March 15th - Beginning of another warm storm

Finally here is the total, liqid precip forecast for the next couple of weeks. Some areas of the Sierra are forecast to receive upwards of 16 inches of liquid precip. Those are the highest elevations along the western Sierra crest. Mt. Rose is in the 10-12 inch range, some of that will be rain but we think most will be snow, probably very wet snow. The leeward valleys will be receiving all rain and could pick up as much as 5 inches.

Stay Tuned ...

The models are changing their minds about as often as the average person changes their underwear. One thing they have consolidated on is the storm this weekend and the aftereffects for next week.

Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow evening:

Another cold storm and should be all snow for all Tahoe resorts. 1-3 feet depending on the amount of shadowing. This storm will stick around through the middle of next week with weak waves of hit and miss precipitation.

After that, it looks like high pressure will settle in. The big southern storm we talked about looks like it is going to get split with one half moving north of us the other half moving south. However, the models appear to change their minds on this daily.

For now, however, it looks like we will have a pretty clear sailing, next weekend.

Stay Tuned ...

I feel like this is a retraction. In our last post we talked about and showed a forecast from both the GFS and EC weather models that showed the possibility that spring may actually arrive in the form of a big warmup. Those models and all others have done a complete about face. Instead we are looking at more storms that could last into the foreseeable future.

Let's start with next weekend's storm. Right now a weak area of low pressure is going to camp right off the west coast and bring multiple waves of precipitation to the area:

Then, right on its heels things get really interesting. We have 3 areas of low pressure that should connect and form an AR event on Saturday 3/11:

As if that is not enough, the forecast for March 14th shows another huge storm that will slam Tahoe with even more precip:

Granted this is a long way out and a lot can change but the winter of 2022/2023 could be one for the record books.

Here is the precip forecast for the next 2 weeks:

These storms are warmer than what we have been getting, but not by much so expect most of this moisture to fall in the way of snow above 6,500 feet.

March Miracle or March Disaster? You make the call!

Stay Tuned ...

The current storm cycle will continue on and off  (mostly on), through next Saturday (3/4), then it appears our pattern will change to dry and possibly warm. Both our favorite models are predicting a huge warm up starting around the 8th of March. We could actually go from lows in the single digits to highs in the 70's.

First, we have a series of storms that are going to continue for the next week. Here is a look at what we are seeing:

Sunday 2/26 @ 4:00pm

That is some very warm air all the way up into BC. That trough of Low Pressure is going to bring up some sub-tropical air. Of course with the huge snowpack, that could cause a very quick melt off, so we will have to keep an eye on that.

Looks like an additional 2-4 feet of snow for Mt. Rose, while Mammoth is looking at an additional 4-6 feet to go along with the 4 feet they picked up already and the nearly 40 feet they have received this winter.

Yesterday's cold front was just the beginning of a series of storms poised to hit the Tahoe Area for around the next week. We are seeing a rather significant Rain Shadow associated with these storms. Put another way, the Western Sierra will receive much more snow than the Eastern Sierra around Tahoe. The Central Sierra will be picking up a ton of moisture which will be all snow.

For Tahoe, the best chance for significant snows come early Friday (2/24) and the following Monday (2/27). Again we are seeing a Sierra Shadowing effect for the eastern Sierra.

Here is a look at late Monday:

By the time this storm cycle ends, this will still be a significant precip event, just more so for the Central Sierra. Obviously, this brings very beneficial rains for most of California as their reservoirs continue to fill up. 

The current pattern which is marked by weak cold fronts dropping down and leaving us with a few inches of snow and very cold weather is going to change back to a very stormy pattern in about a week. 

The first step is a storm to our north (2/21) that will knock our ridge of high pressure considerably further west. That will open the storm door.

Wednesday (2/22)

Friday (2/24)

Monday (2/27)

Wednesday (3/1)

This pattern looks similar to late December and if it holds, March comes in like a lion. Here is the forecast total liquid precip for the week starting February 21st:

If you are wondering if you are reading that correctly, yes it says 10-12 inches of liquid precip which could translate into 8-15 feet of snow for most of Tahoe.

As has been the case this winter, these will be cold storms and as of now it looks like this will be all snow for all Tahoe Resorts and quite a bit of snow for the leeward foothills and a rain/snow mix for the leeward valleys.

Stay Tuned ...

If it seems like our temperatures have been below average since October, that is because for the most part they have, with few exceptions.

That is not going to change anytime soon and we are tracking what could be another major snow event in about 12 days.

First, we have several weak, cold systems heading our way, starting tonight (2/10):

Temperatures will remain quite cool until about the 21st. Then it appears we have what could be a major pattern change, as a very large and wet storm will shove our ridge of high pressure out in the Pacific and could bring a series of precipitation events to Tahoe. Here is the forecast for late on the 22nd:

Stay Tuned ...

Another storm is spinning up as I write this. That storm will deliver moderate snowfall to the mountains and a decent amount of rain to the valleys. 

Here is the forecast for Sunday morning. This storm should last through the day and into the evening hours. The heaviest snow will be on the West side of Lake Tahoe:

We are looking at 1-2 feet for Mt. Rose and 2+ feet West of Lake Tahoe above 7,500 feet. The snow level for this system looks to be right at Lake Level.

Looking past this storm we will warm up to near average temperatures. There may be a small disturbance around the 11th of February.

We have a cold slider system coming in for Sunday. This system will usher in some arctic air and bring low temperatures near zero in the Sierra and low teens for the valleys. 

It will be warm up until Sunday, finally! Then it will take a few days to recover but we may start to see some average temperatures for this time year later in the week.

We see no other systems in sight, but we all know that can change.

Stay Tuned ...

We have one weak storm left in what has been an amazing storm cycle, even by Tahoe standards. This cycle lasted over 3 weeks and produced close to 20 feet of snow for Mt. Rose. Oops, I am not supposed to forecast what has already happened, but I could not resist. 

Late tomorrow night our last storm in this cycle will arrive. Notice the blocking ridge of high pressure to the west. That will cut off any significant moisture tap. 

We are looking at 4-8 inches for Slide Mountain and a few flurries for the valley. This is a cold storm and will bring with it some very cold air.

That cold air will stick with us until the end of the month when it looks like our next storm cycle will begin:

Stay Tuned ...

In about a week (1/17), the metaphorical caboose will pass by the station and high pressure will setup off the California coast which will push the storms north.

Between now and then, we still have a series of storms that will wreak even more havoc in California. Having said all that, the reservoirs should be filled and all the gloomy predictions of the world coming to a quick end because you drive a mini-van, will go away for another year or so. 

The largest of the remaining storms is poised to slam the Tahoe Area late Friday (1/13 - Yes, Friday the 13th) or early Saturday.

We have not seen precipitation forecasts like this one since 2017. We talked about that transition from La Nina to neutral and felt as though our weather could be effected back in October. Here is what is forecast for the next 2 weeks in the way of precipitation:

These are mostly warm storms that will start out at very high elevations and come down as the the front passes and pulls in the cooler air. We believe this will be mostly snow for Mt. Rose, but other Tahoe resorts could be looking at major flooding. In addition, all that rain will melt snow and that water will go downhill which will definitely challenge the drainage systems around Reno, Carson City and other valley locations. 

This will fill up the California reservoirs and dams along the rivers will be challenged again.

Here are the storm dates:

1/4, 1/7, 1/9, 1/12, 1/14, 1/16

These storms are all coming from the south as La Nina releases her grip.

Stay Tuned ...

Another large, wet and warm storm is on tap starting Wednesday. This storm will be reenforced by smaller waves and will last, on and off, for nearly a week. The above graphic shows when the storm really gets cranking, Wednesday (1/4) evening.

This storm will come in very warm, but snow levels will drop rapidly as a cold front comes through. Then, for the next several days, until the 9th of January, we will see all snow for all Tahoe resorts. However, by then most of the heavy moisture will have come through. 

Mt. Rose will again have the best conditions with its high base as this storm will challenge the base of Rose and will probably deliver at least some rain. Although most of the precip will fall in the way of snow.

Here is the forecast for January 10th:

We see no indication of this pattern ending before the middle of January as another storm comes in around the 15th:

As we transition from La Nina to a more neutral ENSO, Mother Nature is again flexing her muscles. If you read our season outlook, however, this should come as no surprise.

Stay Tuned ...

Merry Christmas to all! I hope you are having a wonderful holiday season. 

If you caught our last post, we have a huge pattern change and it is knocking on the door. Before we get to the timing and snow levels I thought it prudent to show the precip forecast for the next 10 days:

We are looking at 12-16 inches of liquid for all the mountains around Lake Tahoe. Just South of the lake, they are going to get buried in the upper elevations. Add this to our already healthy snowpack and you see why averages do matter! Meanwhile, many valley locations will see 5+ inches of rain over the next 10 days.

Storm 1 (Tuesday 12/27 @ 4am)

This storm is packing a subtropical moisture tap and will be the warmest of the storms with snow levels starting out at 10,000 and dropping through the event. The event will last 20-24 hours and by the end, it will be all snow down to 7,000 feet. 

Storm 2 (Thursday 12/29 @ 6am)

Storm 3 (Monday 1/2/2023@ 10am)

Folks there are several storms but we expect this event to last through Friday (1/6/2023). Snow levels will vary, but this should be slightly cooler with snow levels below 8,000 feet.

Toward midday on the 6th of January, we expect high pressure to move in and clear things out. In all likelihood this should end the event, but not until almost all of Tahoe see's 12 inches of liquid precipitation. 

As is not atypical, the Sierra can spin up some very warm, wet storms. That is what we are looking at for the next few weeks. 

Stay Tuned...