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Dan Luu writes:
Here in Vancouver, the expert consensus is that the probability of a magnitude 9 earthquake is something like 0.1% to 0.4% per year. . . .
When we looked at automotive safety in 2020, we saw that almost every car manufacturer does the minimum necessary to score w...
Here’s the ever-credulous New York Times:
A Big Night Light in the Sky? Start-Up Wants to Launch a Space Mirror.
The company is seeking F.C.C. approval to test an idea to reflect sunlight to Earth at night, possibly powering sola...
An international correspondent who would like to remain anonymous writes:
I just read your blog post on autism junk science. I am a researcher focusing on autism. The post reminded me of two studies published, not in MDPI journals, but in JAMA series, claiming extraordinarily high diagnostic accuracy for autism.
This post is from Bob
Nutpie laps NUTS
The short story is that the Nutpie sampler is usually twice as fast as Stan’s sampler for Stan models and twice as fast as PyMC’s samplers ...
This blog post is by Aki with some excerpts in the end from the forthcoming Bayesian Workflow book Section 5.4 A data model is not just a “likelihood”.
It seems to be increasingly common that people say likelihood when they talk about the data model.
A Bayesian model is defined by the joint distribution of the data and parameters p(y, theta). This is us...