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Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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This is an unfortunately all-too-appropriate story for Martin Luther King holiday.

Following up on this news item:

Economist Colin Camerer writes:

I suspected this. Sad case of poor incentive design (ICErs create expensive externalities bc ...


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Gary Smith is an economist with a sideline in AI debunking. We’ve pointed to some of these on the blog:

Jun 2021: “ai-promised-to-revolutionize-radiology-but-so-far-its-failing”

Jan 2022:


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Bob Carpenter pointed me to this wonderful presentation by Jeff Soules.

Or if you just want to read the slides, they’...


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This is Jessica. In “A Glass-Bottomed Cadillac”, David Hickey describes the advice Hank Williams Sr. received from his father and passes on to his son: “Don’t get any on you, pipsqueak.” By which he meant, don’t let the moral fallout of the road permeate your sense of self. Will Oldham describes the same struggle to retain yourself while the world presses in:

I am...


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This is Erik: A few days ago, I wrote about my concerns about the z-curve method. I demonstrated that under certain circumstances, the coverage of the confidence interval of the expected discovery rate (EDR) is far below nominal.

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