Jim Ratcliffe is in the process of modifying his offer to take over Manchester United Plc (NYSE: MANU) in an effort to resolve the ongoing stalemate, according to reports.

The British billionaire, alongside his advisers, is addressing concerns raised by minority investors of the English Premier League football club regarding the terms of his bid, Bloomberg reports, with sources requesting anonymity as the details are confidential.

Recent days have seen a resurgence of speculation that a new series of bids may be initiated. Earlier this year, Ratcliffe proposed to buy a 69% stake in Manchester United, which is owned by the US-based Glazer family, leaving minimal advantage for the owners of the club’s remaining shares, such as Lindsell Train, Ariel Investments LLC, and Eminence Capital.

This development comes on the heels of UK media speculations over the weekend, suggesting the possibility of a higher bid from Qatari businessman Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani, another contender for the Red Devils.

Earlier in the month, it was believed that the majority owners of United, the Glazer family from Florida, had decided to withdraw Manchester United from the market, resulting in a US$700 million devaluation of the shares.

Despite this news, there was a negligible boost in the share price today, with shares falling by 0.9% to $19.51 in New York.

Customers are anticipated to receive a rebate below £7 each from Thames Water next year, amidst the company’s escalating issues with sewage management.

Thames Water faced the steepest financial penalties issued by the regulatory body, Ofwat, on Monday. The regulator mandated that the largest supplier in the UK return £100m to its customers due to a noted “deterioration” in river pollution levels.

This penalty was the highest individual fine, with Ofwat stating that underperforming suppliers are required to give back £114m in total, owing to inadequacies related to sewage, leaks, and customer satisfaction. The reimbursed amount will reflect on customer bills.

The most recent annual performance report from Ofwat disclosed a 22% rise in pollution incidents last year for Thames Water, positioning it among the lowest ranks for customer satisfaction.

Nevertheless, the £100m rebate from Thames Water will provide minimal relief to customers. Based on calculations by The Telegraph, customers are set to see an average deduction of £6.70 on their yearly bills starting in April. Thames Water has opted not to comment on this figure.

The rebate follows two months after the UK’s principal supplier received a £750 million support from shareholders, aiding its fight against nationalisation. The company’s executives acknowledged a need for an additional £2.5 billion by 2030.

A spokesperson from Thames Water remarked, “We are committed to providing excellent service to our customers, and we apologise for any instances where we fail to meet this standard at the first instance.”

They noted the effectiveness of the company’s turnaround plan, stating, “We’ve observed a 28% decrease in complaints, marking the second substantial year-on-year reduction. Additionally, there have been advancements in various essential performance commitments, including decreases in sewage discharges, internal sewer flooding, and sewer blockages.”

According to the report released on Monday by Ofwat, none of the UK’s water companies achieved the top “leading” status. Instead, 10 companies were rated as “average”, while seven were categorized as “lagging”.

The companies at the bottom of the performance list included Anglian Water, Dŵr Cymru, Southern Water, Thames Water, Yorkshire Water, Bristol Water, and South East Water. Southern Water, the second-lowest performer, was mandated to refund £43 million.

The total industry rebate of £114 million was balanced by financial rewards to some companies, such as Severn Trent, which received £88 million, and United Utilities, which obtained £25 million.

Annually, Ofwat evaluates the performance of water companies in England and Wales against the targets established in 2019 for a period extending until 2025.

David Black, Ofwat’s chief executive, commented, “The goals we established for the companies were intended to be challenging – aiming to foster enhancements for both customers and the environment. However, our most recent report indicates a shortfall, resulting in £114 million being reverted to customers through reductions in bills.

While this may be favourable for those paying bills, it’s a letdown for everyone anticipating progress in the sector.”

Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most followed small caps on the London stock market. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, Dax, Dow, Bitcoin, Pound / Dollar, Aura, Chill, eEnergy, Fusion, Falcon, Global Connectivity, Kavango, Oxford Biodynamics, Optibiotix, Prospex, Pelatro, Supreme, Symphony Environmental, Trellus, Tern.

Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engaging in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.

Metals prices slide as China construction woes persist and dollar pushes higher

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Amur Minerals* (AMC LN)  – Management has reviewed multiple opportunities following divestiture of Kun Manie

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – Interim Results as Micon review enters finalisation period

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Interim results and project updates

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Roadmap for graphite anode materials plant targets 2024 DFS process for first production in 2027

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – Earnings pull back reflecting lower realised vanadium prices

CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) – Francisco Basin scoping study

VOX:    https://audioboom.com/posts/8372001-john-meyer-discusses-heat-pumps-the-energy-transition-plus-bluejay-jay-kodal-kod-savannah-sav

https://audioboom.com/posts/8368469-john-meyer-on-chinese-stimulus-plus-arc-bushveld-cornish-metals-empire-metals-tertiary-min

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

Gold prices slide as Treasuries and dollar push higher

• Gold prices cooled to $1,911/oz, giving up close to $20/oz in gains made over last week.
• The move followed another sell-off in US Treasuries, with the 10-year yield touching 4.56%.
• The dollar index pressed to 10-month highs, as the Yen sold off to intervention territory and sterling and euro weakness persists.
• Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, has been banging the higher-for longer drum, adding to concerns persistently elevated rates triggered at last week’s FOMC meeting.
• Gold ETFs continue to sell down holdings.
• PCE data due later this week will be of primary concern to bond and gold investors.
• However, China has been shopping, with net gold imports via Hong Kong up 51% to 39t vs 25.8t in July.

Economic

Ghana holds rates steady on lower inflation and economic growth

• Ghana has held its key interest rate at 30%.
• The Bank of Ghana expects GDP growth of 3% this year vs IMF forecasts of 1.6%.
• The Central Bank expects further disinflation and notes that ‘economic activity is rebounding strongly.’

Global trade volumes dropped at the fastest annual pace in nearly three years in July, according to the latest World Monitor figures released by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

• Volumes were down 3.2%yoy marking the steepest decline since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in August 2020.
• The decline was registered in all major economies including China (-1.5%), the Eurozone (-2.5%) and the US (-0.6%)
• Along with higher borrowing costs and inflation weighing on economic growth, geopolitical tensions are also hitting trade, FT writes.

Evergrande subsidiary defaults on 4bn CNY ($547m) loan with payment missed yesterday.

• Separately, reports have been released that Evergrande ex CEO and former CFO were both detained by Chinese authorities.

Currencies

US$1.0584/eur vs 1.0649/eur previous. Yen 149.04/$ vs 148.36/$. SAr 18.890/$ vs 18.800/$. $1.217/gbp vs $1.224/gbp. 0.640/aud vs         0.642/aud. CNY 7.312/$ vs 7.309/$.

Dollar Index 106.12 vs 105.61 previous.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,912/oz vs US$1,923/oz previous

Gold ETFs 88.7moz vs 89moz previous

Platinum US$908/oz vs US$927/oz previous

Palladium US$1,221/oz vs US$1,245/oz previous

Silver US$22.93/oz vs US$23/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,100/oz vs US$4,100/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$ 8,085/t vs US$8,189/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,226/t vs US$2,231/t previous

Nickel US$ 18,960/t vs US$19,425/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,546/t vs US$2,537/t previous

Lead US$ 2,185/t vs US$2,194/t previous

Tin US$ 25,785/t vs US$26,140/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$92.0/bbl vs US$93.8/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices pulled back from their recent highs ostensibly as markets reacted to a stronger dollar and concerns that central banks would hold interest rates higher for longer.
• European gas prices continue to be elevated due to Norwegian outages that have reduced its production volumes to the lowest level since 2015.

Natural Gas €42.450/MWh vs €40.050/MWh previous

Uranium UXC US$65.50/lb vs US$65.50/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$115.5/t vs US$118.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$538.6/t vs US$538.1/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$130.0/t vs US$130.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$160.8/t vs US$158.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$324.0/t vs US$324.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,420/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,256/t vs US$71,280/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$20,994/t vs US$21,001/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,350/t vs US$2,370/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,027/t vs US$1,033/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/mtu vs US$305/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$645/t vs US$645/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.6/lb vs US$6.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 29.25/kg vs US$29.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$315/t vs US$315/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$86.7/t vs US$87.2/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Battery News

Nissan confirms all European models will be electric by 2030

• The Japanese automaker has announced all its new European models will be fully electric and it plans to sell only EVs on the continent by 2030.
• One of two new EV models it has confirmed for Europe will be manufactured at its Sunderland plant in northeast England.
• Despite recent the recent announcement by Rishi Sunak that the 2030 ban on ICE vehicles would be pushed back 5 years, automakers are still pushing on with plans to go electric.
  • “There is no turning back now,” Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida said in a statement.
• Ford and Stellantis also plan to be fully electric in Europe by 2030. Volvo plans to sell only EVs globally by 2030.
• We suspect plans for fully-electric production might be delayed in the normal course of business.
• Consumers are likely to increasingly buy for EVs now that electricity prices have dropped from around 44p/Kwh to 28p/Kwh
• New models with increased safety and entertainment features will attract buyers as will ongoing incentive schemes.
• The challenge is now for the UK government to generate sufficient power for millions of new EVs while installing millions of electric heat pumps
• We are told many older houses are supplied with three-phase power cables but where only a single phase is connected making it easier to install heat pumps and fast car chargers than we had previously thought. Having said that the UK grid will still need substantial upgrade to meet government ambitions.

Carmakers call on EU to delay tariffs on EV exports

• The likes of Renault, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have called for the EU to delay plans for the 10% export tariff on EVs.
• The tariff is due to be enforced from January 2024, but carmakers in the UK and Europe are pushing to delay its introduction by at least three years.
• It was agreed in 2020 Brexit trade and cooperation discussions when it was believed that car giants across the UK and the EU would quickly make significant progress in EV manufacture.
• The rule of origin clause imposes a 10% tariff on any EV that was less than 45% made in the UK or the EU and it has quickly become apparent that automakers will not meet that target before the tariff is imposed.
• EU manufacturers are concerned that the tariff will further open the door to Chinese automakers who are already growing their share of the European market.
• Carmakers in the EU still account for 70% of vehicle sales in Europe, China now accounts for 8% of the market, with manufacturers offering entry-level EVs at under €30,000.
• The formal request to cut the tariff has been made by the European Automobile Manufacturer’s Association (ACEA)

Company News

Amur Minerals* (AMC LN) Suspended – Management has reviewed multiple opportunities following divestiture of Kun Manie

• In its interim results for the six-months to 30^th June, released yesterday, Amur Minerals confirms the completion of its US$35m sale of the Kun Manie project in the Russian Federation.
• Amur Minerals explains that the “divesture price represented a premium of 119% to the Group’s market capitalisation of 3 August 2022 (GBP13.2 million) and 44% to the current Kun-Manie book value of US$24.3 million as at 31 December 2021 in Amur’s latest annual report”.
• The company reports a loss of US$1.97m from its continuing operations and recognises a US$7m loss on the sale of Kun Manie comprising US$24.6m fair value of assets and US$17.4m of cumulative losses offsetting the US$35m consideration.
• The company also confirms that it has “paid a one-time special dividend from the US$35 million payment for the sale of AO Kun-Manie. Paid at 1.8p per ordinary share, a total of GBP25.1 million (US$31.7 million at an exchange rate of 1.26 US$ to the UK Pound Sterling) was allocated”.
• Cash resources at 30^th June are reported at US$6.3m and Amur Minerals “remains debt free”.
• As the divestiture of Kun Manie turned Amur Minerals into a “cash shell” its shares “will remain suspended until the completion of a reverse takeover”.
• Yesterday’s announcement confirms that it has reviewed a “total of 17 opportunities … [including potential projects] … located in Canada, the US, Scandinavia, Spain, Brazil, Peru, Chile, Ghana, Mali, Kenya and Australia. Commodities have included potash, silica, alumina, copper, nickel, gold, silver, metallurgical coking coal, energy fuels substitutes, lime and lithium”.

Conclusion: Seeking new project opportunities following the disposal of Kun Manie.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Amur Minerals

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 39p, Mkt Cap £50m – Interim results as Micon review enters finalisation period

BUY – TP under review

• Anglo Asian reports its six-month interim results for the period to 30^th June 2023.
• Revenues fell to $30.8m vs $31.5m for the same period last year.
• Total production for the period was 23.4koz GEOs vs 28.7koz same period last year.
• Copper production climbed to 1.9kt and gold production was 14.6koz.
• Gold bullion sales fell to 10.5koz vs 11.3koz for the same period last year, although the reduction in sales was somewhat offset by higher gold prices.
• Realised gold prices averaged $1,939/oz vs $1,901/oz for same period last year.
• Copper concentrate sales rose to $10.4m vs $9.8m same period last year.
• The rising costs, visible in an AISC of $1,357/oz ($983/oz last year), is a factor of inflationary pressures and a drop in processed grades.
• PAT totalled $1.4m vs $5.7m same period last year.
• No interim dividend was declared for 2023 as Gedabek flotation and agitation leaching operations remain suspended.
• The Company continued to invest over the period in long-term growth, with $6.6m spent on CAPEX and mine development and $3.8m spent on exploration and evaluation activities.
• FY23 updated production guidance is for 30.0-34.0koz GEOs including 22.0-23.0koz gold and 2.1-2.2kt copper.
• The reduction in output is a result of the curtailment of agitation leaching and flotation processing, however heap leaching continues.
• Updated guidance assumes restart of agitation leaching and flotation processing in Q1/24.
• In the meantime, extensive maintenance works are being carried out at Gedabek including relining of all its mills.
• Blasting has been temporarily suspended at Gilar and Zafar over August and September with development works expected to be resumed in October.
• As regards to the curtailment of agitation leaching and flotation processing, Micon is currently conducting a health, safety and environmental management review of the Gedabek tailings dam.
• Commenting on the status of environmental review, the Company reports “the curtailment of our agitation leaching and flotation processing whilst an environmental inspection was carried out, whilst regrettable, was understandable… the Company has fully cooperated with all Government requests to ensure the environmental inspection was carried out properly and to expedite other related matters… the report by Micon of the environmental inspection is currently being finalised”.
• Anglo Asian had a $9.6m cash balance at the end of the reporting period and no bank debt, alongside $4.9m worth of gold and $4.2m worth of copper concentrate.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Anglo Asian Mining

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) 0.35p, Mkt Cap £1.4m – Interim results and project updates

• Arkle provides their interim statement for the period to 30^th June 2023.
• The Company reports that their partner, Group Eleven, has decided to drill a deep hole at Stonepark.
• A short drilling programme is set to get underway imminently at Donegal, where the focus is on gold, which the team believes bears similarities to the Dalradian discovery at Tyrone.
• Arkle is looking to attract a ‘farm-out partner’ to support a more expansive drilling campaign at the Donegal asset.
• The Company has applied for additional licences in Wicklow for spodumene pegmatite exploration.
• Work in Zimbabwe has been paused owing to title difficulties, whilst two additional licence blocks in ‘another jurisdiction,’ targeting lithium exploration, have been acquired.
• Arkle had €63k in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the reporting period

*SP Angel are Nomad and Broker to Arkle Resources

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 1.5p, Mkt Cap £17m – Roadmap for graphite anode materials plant targets 2024 DFS process for first production in 2027

• Beowulf provides an update on its graphite anode materials plant in the GigaVaasa Area in Finland.
• The Company reported a successful PFS for the project in July showing an NPV8 of $242m and a post-tax IRR of 39%.
• The team is currently executing an Environmental Impact Assessment, which it expects to complete in 1Q24.
• Following the completion of the EIA, the process for an Environmental Permit approval will begin.
• Alongside environmental assessments, Beowulf and Grafintec will start to conduct bench-scale test work from October.
• Upon successful bench-scale test work, pilot-scale test work will be conducted.
• This should enable Beowulf to begin the DFS work from mid-2024.
• If the roadmap listed above proves the operation is feasible, the GAMP project will see first production targets of 2027.

Conclusion: It is reassuring and exciting to see the Beowulf and Grafintec teams present a clear and concise roadmap of targets and deadlines for the graphite anode materials plant in Finland. The EU is focused on securing a sustainable supply chain of critical minerals, as evinced by the Critical Raw Materials Act. In line with this, Beowulf has moved quickly to position itself to benefit from the EU’s ambitious targets for graphite extraction and processing and we expect emphasis on domestic supply chains to continue to amplify as geopolitical concerns persist with China. The environmental impact assessment is a key milestone, and we look forward to its completion early next year before the Company can accelerate the DFS process.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 1.8p, Mkt Cap £23m – Earnings pull back reflecting lower realised vanadium prices

BUY – TP under review

• Revenue totalled to $78.4m (H1/22: $76.2m) as higher sales compensated for a drop in realised vanadium prices.
• Sales were 2.1ktV (H1/22: 1.6ktV) reflecting higher production of 1.8ktV (H1/22: 1.6ktV) as well as some destocking.
• Sales into premium markets were prioritised during the period to optimise revenues with sales into sectors like aerospace and specialty chemicals.
• Sales into the US and Europe accounted for 49% and 29% (H1/22: 45% and 27%).
• Realised vanadium prices averaged $37.4/kgV (H1/22: $46.4/kgV)
• AISC are reported at $33.4/kgV (H1/22: $37.8/kgV) on the back of stronger production as well as a fall in South African rand to an average of 18.2 (H1/22: 15.4).
• EBITDA amounted to $10.3m (H1/22: $15.6m) reflecting lower realised prices and higher costs associated with increased sales.
• Operating profit came in at $2.1m (H1/22: $6.1m).
• CFO (post tax) and FCF totalled -$0.9m and -$5.3m (H1/22: $8.7m and $0.0m)
• PAT and EPS came in at -$12.5m and -1.09USc, respectively (H1/22: -$0.3m and -0.27USc).
• Net Debt closed at $89.6m (H2/22: $76.5m) including $4.8m in cash and investments as well as $94.4m in gross debt (H1/22: $13.9m and $90.4m, respectively) including $35.1m in Orion PFA.
• FY23 guidance reiterated at 3.7-3.9ktV and $26.6-26.9kgV (R481-487) production cash cost (C1) using ~18ZAR exchange rate.
• Orion convertible refinancing (~$45m) discussions are ongoing and the team expecting to finalise the deal before the 21 December deadline.
• In the meantime, in line with earlier announced SPR transaction, the Company secured the $8.1 working capital facility.
• Operationally, the Company is reporting improvements in monthly production rates with Vanchem hitting 160mtV and 175mtV output in months of July and August, up on an average of ~120mtV recorded in Q2/23.
• Vanchem plant completed an eight-day maintenance with production expected at 130mtV in September bringing Q3/23 production to ~465mtV.
• The team is aiming for reaching ~180mtV run rates by YE23.
• Vametco recorded higher output through August with production ramping up to 215mtV, up from an average of ~160mtV in Q2/23.
• Although, leach plant reliability challenges encountered recently are expected to see output coming in to 180mtV in September taking Q3/23 production to ~530mtV
• The team is expecting output to recover to 200mtV per month run rates from October.
• On BELCO, construction of the electrolyte manufacturing facilities was completed with first batches of product sent to international customers to qualify BELCO as an approved supplier of electrolyte.

Conclusion: Earnings pull back reflecting nearly a 20% drop in realised prices in H1/23 from the previous year with some of the decline compensated for a rand depreciation and higher sales volumes. With vanadium prices continuing to pull back as general growth momentum concerns remain and Chinese property market continues to struggle, H2/23 is expected to underperform first six months of the year. With high operational and financial leverage, Company’s fortunes are highly geared to vanadium prices which we expect to start recovering on potential stimulus measures in China and VRFB related demand growth.

New management team is focused on two immediate goals including reaching design production rates at Vametco and Vanchem and completing Orion convertible loan facility refinancing ahead of the December due date.

At Vanchem, 9M23 production estimated at ~1.1ktV implying Q4/23 target for 300-400mtV (100-130mtV per month) to reach guided 1.4-1.5ktV for FY23 should be comfortably within reach. The team is expecting to hit ~180mtV run rates by YE23. At Vametco, the team is also expecting production rates to ramp up to 200mtV per month from October allowing the Company to reach its 2.3-2.4ktV FY23 target. 9M23 production at Vametco is estimated at ~1.7ktV suggesting the Q4/23 should come in at 600-700mtV (200-230mtV per month). The Company reiterated its FY23 production and cost guidance.

Regarding refinancing, the team remains in discussions with Orion ahead of the targeted completion later in the year while also having separately agreed a deal with SPR to address its previously flagged near term liquidity challenges.

*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to Bushveld Minerals

CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) 52p, Mkt Cap £59m – Francisco Basin scoping study

• CleanTech Lithium reports the results of a recently completed scoping study on its Francisco Basin lithium project located in the northern Atacama Region of Chile approximately 200km east of the regional capital, Copiapo and south west of the company’s Laguna Verde lithium project.
• Based on annual production of 20ktpa of battery grade lithium carbonate by direct lithium extraction technology over a 12 years mine life, the company estimates that capital expenditure of US$450m generates an after tax NPV_8% of US$1.1bn and IRR of 43.5% at a ”long-term lithium carbonate price of US$22,500 per tonne”.
• The Francisco Basin salar deposit is located at an elevation of more than 4,000m with a JORC compliant ,mineral “resource estimate for the Francisco Basin project of 919,346 tonnes of LCE … [lithium carbonate equivalent] … was published on 24 August 2023”.
• The company “plans to undertake another resource drill programme at Francisco Basin, commencing Q4 2023, aiming to further upgrade the current resource estimate” before starting a pre-feasibility study.
• The scoping study envisages utilising 236,000t of the contained LCE resource of which 68% (160,500t) is derived from ‘Indicated’ Resources with the balance from the ‘Inferred’ resource.
• Based on a 1.5-year construction period, the scoping study “assumes production commences in 2027” one year later than “the more advanced Laguna Verde project, where production is targeted for 2026”.

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite	Asian Metal

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A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%

Regulators have directed water companies to refund customers a sum of £114m in the coming year, owing to their underperformance. Thames Water faced the most severe impact, receiving a penalty exceeding £100m for the recent financial year from Ofwat.

The authority has mandated companies to provide rebates on customer bills following their failure to meet the established targets. According to Ofwat’s inaugural annual Water Company Performance Report, none of the UK’s water utility companies achieved a rank in the topmost “leading” category.

Ten firms fall under the “average” category, while seven, including Anglian Water, Dŵr Cymru, Southern Water, Thames Water, Yorkshire Water, Bristol Water, and South East Water, are classified in the lowest “lagging” group.

David Black, the Chief Executive of Ofwat, remarked:

The objectives assigned to companies were intended to be challenging – to foster enhancements for both customers and the environment.

However, our recent report indicates a shortfall, resulting in £114m being reverted to customers through reduced bills. While this might be beneficial for billpayers, it represents disappointing news for those aspiring to witness improvement in the sector.

CleanTech Lithium (CTL), an exploration and development company, advancing sustainable lithium projects in Chile, announced the results of a recently completed Scoping Study for the Francisco Basin Project, which confirmed the project’s outstanding economics, potential for future resource expansion and strong ESG credentials.

Author @ZaksTradersCafe

The company said the Scoping Study provides added confidence in the robust economics of our second project, Francisco Basin, based on low operating and capital costs, with a post-tax NPV of $1.1 billion and IRR of 43.5%, and a payback period of 2 years and 7 months. The study further advances the process and technical design concept for the project, with strong ESG principles incorporated at each stage.

Comment: It rather beggars belief that shares of CTL remain anywhere below their February 90p peak given the progress the company has made on proving up the economics of Francisco Basin today, and proved that fears over Chilean mining sector legislation are misplaced.

LifeSafe (LIFS), a fire safety technology business, reported its unaudited Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2023. The company said it was pleased to announce another positive set of financial results that reflect the continued growth and development of its business. It said that it was delighted that it announced its first major partnership in the development of its industrial strategy with Wormald in Australia.  This milestone is a long way ahead of its expectations even though it has been working and testing with Wormald for over 18 months.

Comment: It was always the case that LIFS was going to lay the foundation of its business via the consumer area, and then turbo charge it via an industrial strategy. The merit of this plan has clearly panned out as the company looks set to be EBITDA positive at the full year, given the strength at the interim stage. This state of affairs should finally be appreciated in terms of the stock market and the share price.

Newmark Security (NWT) reported finals to April 2023 showing a 6.1% increase in Revenue to £20.3m with a satisfying  jump in Gross Profits Margins to 37.6%. NWT, provide electronic and physical security systems and have invested in significantly in product innovation launching its cloud platform GT Connect which increases the scalability of its services. The success is evidenced by reporting EBITDA of £1.5m compared to loss and PBT of £0.4m against a £0.8m loss. The quality of earnings is also improving with the Human Capital Management (MCM) division SaaS model’s recurring revenue increasing 133% to £2.1m. There are strong performances in Access Control and the guarding divisions, Safetell.  A cost-effective retail attack-resistant screen has been relaunched for convenience stores with over £1m worth of installations to major UK retailers and a pipeline of over £2m. Cash flow is positive and working capital tightly manged so an equity funding for organic growth is not required.

Comment: As NWT move further up the tech chain its scalability and profits should improve which does not seem reflected in the £5.1m mkt cap at 54.5p.

Symphony Environmental Technologies (SYM), the global specialists in technologies that make plastic and rubber products smarter, safer and more sustainable, announced that the Republic of Yemen has commenced the enforcement of legislation that was passed in 2010 but delayed due to the civil war. The company said this is a very positive step forward for its d2w biodegradable plastic technology in one of the largest plastic producing and consuming areas in the Middle East. It builds on a continual process of change throughout the region towards plastic products that are scientifically proven to be better for the environment than ordinary plastics or other alternative materials. Plastic products made with d2w have the lowest Co2 emissions and environmental impact of all the current alternatives and we believe that the adoption of its type of low cost, non-disruptive technology will continue to build globally.

Comment: It would appear that everything comes to they who wait, and for SYM we have the kind of announcement which could be the platform for a better appreciation of the company, and the contribution it can make to the plastic waste crisis via its biodegradable plastic technology.

Boku (BOKU), a provider of global mobile payment solutions, announced unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2023. Revenues were up 26% to $38.2m in H1 (H1 2022: $30.3m) and up 32% on a constant currency basis driven by increasing transaction volumes from its major global merchants. The company said all parts of the business are performing well, and ahead of its internal budget at the time of the capital markets day earlier this year. The triple digit growth from wallets and account to account payments now means that these newer payment methods have come from next to nothing this time last year to account for nearly 20% of its revenue.

Comment: Boku is one of the rare standout performers at the smaller market cap part of the market, with the demand for its payments from global merchants an obvious driver, and underlining the way the company is in the right area at the right time.

Bushveld Minerals (BMN), the integrated primary vanadium producer and energy storage solutions provider, announced its interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2023. The company said the improved production at Vanchem, thanks to measures described in the Q2 operational update, tells it that it has a plant that is capable of reaching its full potential. It must now consolidate the improved efficiencies and achieve sustained target growth of 180mtV per month for Vanchem by the end of 2023. With incremental month-to-month improvements, it should be in a position of attaining this by the end of 2023.

Comment: It can be seen from the latest RNS from BMN that the company is seeing a positive turnaround from an operational / fundamental perspective. This makes it all the more puzzling that the recent temporary recovery in the share price has fizzled out for now.

Oxford BioDynamics, (OBD), a biotechnology company, announced that validation of its EpiSwitch Prostate Screening (PSE) test in its US clinical (CLIA-certified) laboratory is now complete, ahead of schedule. The company said there is a clear need in everyday clinical practice for a much more accurate blood test that can screen men for prostate cancer and accurately identify those at risk, while sparing those who up to now would be subject to unnecessary, expensive, and invasive procedures. It feels wholly appropriate that the early launch of the test coincides with Prostate Cancer Awareness month.

Comment: It is perhaps in the nature of those who are most vulnerable to prostate cancer that they are the least likely to get tested, or even be bothered about it. Nevertheless, OBD’s work in this area is obviously a key breakthrough.

eEnergy (EAAS), the net zero energy services provider, announced that is has secured a contract to provide onsite solar energy generation to its existing customer, Tudor Grange Academies Trust. The Total Contract Value is £3.0 million, resulting in £1.9 million revenues to eEnergy which will be recognised across FY23 and FY24. The company said eEnergy’s relationship with TGAT started with the provision of Energy Management services, including the use of eEnergy’s eAuction platform to facilitate an online marketplace with 25 energy suppliers, for their gas and electricity supply, including zero-carbon options. It was pleased to be awarded the mandate in October 2022 for the provision of LED lighting across the Trust. This latest project illustrates eEnergy’s ability to provide end to end solutions for management and provision of low carbon energy to organisations.

Comment: The Sunak U-turn on net zero notwithstanding, it is still the case that any company involved in the green gravy train is totally on the up currently and for the foreseeable future. The solid contract win for EAAS underlines this reality.

Yü Group (YU.), the independent supplier of gas and electricity, meter asset owner, and installer of smart meters to the UK corporate sector, announces its unaudited half-year results for the six months to 30 June 2023.  Revenue growth of 51% to £194.9m (H1 2022: £129.2m), through continued execution of growth strategy. Adjusted EBITDA increased to £13.7m (H1 2022: £2.7m) as the Group benefits from increased net customer contribution through differentiated market offering.

Comment: Given that it is difficult to find a good headline involving smart meters, it is of course interesting to see Yu Group clean up in the corporate sector, versus the moans and groan of households. Perhaps the message for those facing the prospect of being forced to have smart meters is to buy shares in YU. on a “don’t get mad, get even” basis?

Allergy Therapeutics (AGY), the fully integrated commercial biotechnology, announced the completion of dosing of healthy volunteers in the first two cohorts in the Phase I PROTECT trial of its novel virus-like particle (VLP)-based peanut allergy vaccine candidate. Dosing of the subsequent cohorts will begin now that the approval from the external safety review committee (SRC) has been received. The company said peanut allergy is one of the most common types of food allergies. For some people, even the smallest amounts of peanuts can cause a potentially life-threatening reaction. A safe and effective short-course vaccine that provides long-term protection and a long-lasting protective immune response can bring a paradigm shift in treating peanut allergy, changing the lives of those living with the allergy.

Comment: Given the increasing prevalence of allergies of all kinds, the good work being carried out by AGY is all the more appreciated.  It is perhaps amazing that even though we are well into the 21^st century, a cure for peanut allergy has not been delivered. That said, one could probably say the same for baldness, obesity and wrinkles. At least we cracked Covid 19

Author @ZaksTradersCafe

Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.

CleanTech Lithium has announced that a scoping study for its Francisco Basin project indicates the commercial viability of producing 20,000 tonnes per annum of battery-grade lithium carbonate for 12 years.

The projected output, based on an average lithium price of US$22,500 per tonne, would result in post-tax net cash flows of US$2.5 billion throughout the project’s lifetime, with costs estimated at US$3,641 per tonne of lithium carbonate.

Taking into account the construction and initial costs of US$450 million, the project’s net present value (NPV) is estimated at US$1.1 billion, with a payback period (IRR) of two years and seven months, as per the company statement.

Highlights:

·    Supports the potential for Francisco Basin to become a major supplier of battery grade lithium to European and US markets based on sustainable direct lithium extraction (“DLE”) technology

Scoping Study Highlights:

·    Based on annual production of 20,000 tonnes of battery grade lithium carbonate for a production period of 12 years based largely on Indicated resources

·    Calculates accumulated net cashflows (post-tax and royalties) of US$2.5 billion to be generated over the production period with low operating cost of US$3,641 per tonne of lithium carbonate

·    Estimated capital expenditure of US$450.0m, based on DLE plant using Sunresin Materials existing DLE technology, including 20% contingency

·    Attractive economics with post-tax NPV of US$1.1 billion using a discount rate of 8%, post-tax IRR of 43.5% and a payback period of 2 years and 7 months – based on a long-term lithium carbonate price of US$22,500 per tonne from 2028

·    The study assumes production commences in 2027 as the Company aims to progress project development stages with a one-year lag to the more advanced Laguna Verde project, where production is targeted for 2026

·    Industry leading ESG credentials, a critical advantage for the EU market, based on utilising DLE which returns spent brine to the basin aquifers, and renewable energy for processing power by connecting with the Chilean grid and its abundant renewable energy supply

·    The Company plans to undertake another resource drill programme at Francisco Basin, commencing Q4 2023, aiming to further upgrade the current resource estimate, which is 0.92 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) at a grade of 207mg/L Lithium

·    This could extend the 12-year production period and would enhance projected economic returns

·    A Pre-Feasibility Study (“PFS”) on the project is planned to commence on the completion of the resource drill programme, which is expected to be in 2H 2024

Production at Francisco Basin is slated to commence in 2027, a year later than the more advanced Laguna Verde project, which has a targeted commissioning date set for 2026.

Additional drilling is scheduled to take place at Francisco Basin later this year to refine the current resource estimate of 0.92 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Furthermore, a more comprehensive pre-feasibility study is planned for the latter half of 2024.

CEO Aldo Boitano remarked, “The scoping study presents a strategy for generating battery-grade lithium with a minimal environmental impact, optimally positioning the company to cater to both EU and US markets.” He added, “Francisco Basin is our second project and is set to develop on a timeline one year subsequent to our more advanced Laguna Verde project.

When considering both scoping studies, we estimate a total NPV of nearly $3 billion and an IRR exceeding 43% for each project.”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that an annual investment of $4.5 trillion (£3.7 trillion) will be necessary starting from the beginning of the next decade for the world to attain net zero by 2050.

This Paris-based agency highlighted that limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C is still achievable due to record growth in clean energy technology, such as solar panels and electric vehicles. Nonetheless, this goal necessitates a substantial increase in expenditure.

In 2023, it is anticipated that global governments and organizations will allocate $1.8 trillion (£1.5 trillion) towards transitioning to cleaner energy.

This year has seen temperatures reach unprecedented levels, with global averages approximately 1.1C higher than those in the pre-industrial era.

This situation is measured against the objective of the 2015 UN Paris Agreement, which aims to restrict global temperature increases to well below 2C and endeavours to limit them to 1.5C to avoid more severe outcomes like droughts, floods, and intensified wildfires.

According to the IEA’s updated Net Zero Roadmap, tripling global renewable capacity, doubling energy-efficient infrastructure, boosting heat pump sales, and augmenting EV usage are essential steps to be taken by 2030.

Preliminary Roadmap for the development of the Graphite Anode Materials Plant in the GigaVaasa area

Beowulf (AIM: BEM; Spotlight: BEO), and its wholly owned Finnish subsidiary Grafintec Oy (“Grafintec”), are pleased to provide an update on the development plans for the Graphite Anode Materials Plant (“GAMP”) in the GigaVaasa area.

Highlights

·    Following the positive preliminary economics with a post-tax NPV₈ of US$242 million and a post-tax IRR of 39%, the Company is advancing parallel environmental and technical workstreams for the development of the GAMP.

·    The Environmental Impact Assessment (“EIA”) is underway and is expected to be completed in Q1 2024.

·    Following completion and submission of the EIA, the Company will initiate work on the Environmental Permit process.

·    Following the conclusion of the Pre-Feasibility Study (“PFS”) technical work, bench-scale test work is scheduled to begin in October. This will be followed by pilot-scale test work that will be critical for optimising the process design and producing material that can be tested by future battery manufacturers.

·    It is currently anticipated that the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) will begin in mid-2024.

·    The development of the GAMP is further supported by the recently approved European Union Critical Raw Materials Act (“CRM Act”). The CRM Act, which includes graphite as a Critical Raw Material, sets the target of at least 10% of the EU’s annual consumption to be obtained from EU extraction and at least 40% of the EU’s annual consumption to be obtained from processing within the EU.

Rasmus Blomqvist, Managing Director of Grafintec, commented:

“I am very pleased to be able to set out the development plan for the GAMP project. The next critical phases are the completion of the EIA and further test work, initially at bench-scale but subsequently at pilot-scale. These phases will be followed by the Environmental Permitting process and the launch of the DFS later in 2024.”

Ed Bowie, Chief Executive Officer of Beowulf, commented:

“With the backdrop of the EU’s CRM Act, the timing could not be better to be developing our graphite business in Finland. We have some very clear deadlines and deliverables that the team and I will be working hard to meet.

“We look forward updating the market on our progress over the coming months.”

Preliminary Roadmap

The development plan for the GAMP is focused on two primary workstreams, Environmental and Technical. These workstreams require synchronisation, with outcomes from each needing to be incorporated in the other.

The Environmental workstream comprises the following:

·    Grafintec has appointed Finnish Engineering Consultancy AFRY Finland Oy (“AFRY”) to undertake the EIA, which is aimed to be completed in Q1 2024.

·    Following its submission, the local authority, the Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment (“ELY”), will review the EIA before making a statement of their findings. The review process by ELY is anticipated to take approximately three months.

·    Following completion and submission of the EIA, work will commence towards the Environmental Permit. The Environmental Permit application, which will take approximately six months to compile, is then submitted to the Regional State Administrative Agency (“AVI”).

·    The processing of the Environmental Permit is expected to take approximately one year, with the final decision anticipated towards the end of 2025.

The Technical workstream comprises the following:

·    With the PFS technical work complete and the preliminary economics released, the project is advancing with bench-scale test work commencing in October, which is to be followed by pilot-scale test work.

·    On the conclusion of the first phase of pilot-scale test work in the first half of 2024, the Definitive Feasibility Study (“DFS”) will be launched.

·    The DFS is expected to take six to nine months to complete and, during this period, pilot-scale test work will continue, generating sufficient product for battery manufacturers to complete pre-qualification testing.

With the successful conclusion of the Environmental and Technical workstreams listed above, the GAMP project will enter Front-End Engineering Design (“FEED”), financing and ultimately construction phases with first production targeted for 2027.

CRM Act

The European Parliament voted on 7 September 2023, in favour of the Critical Raw Materials Act (“CRM Act”). The CRM Act aims to ensure that the EU has access to a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, enabling Europe to meet its 2030 climate and digital objectives. 

The CRM Act sets benchmarks along the strategic raw-materials value-chain (including natural graphite) and for the diversification of the EU supplies which is currently heavily controlled by only few countries, including, for example, China in the graphite anode materials supply chain.

The CRM Act set targets to be met by 2030 for:

·    at least 10% of the EU’s annual consumption to be derived from EU extraction;

·    at least 40% of the EU’s annual consumption to be derived from EU processing;

·    at least 15% of the EU’s annual consumption to be derived from EU recycling; and

·    no more than 65% of the EU’s annual consumption from a single third country

The CRM Act aims to reduce the administrative burden and streamlining permitting procedures for critical raw materials projects while ensuring a high social and environmental protection standard. The selected strategic projects will benefit from support for access to finance and shorter permitting procedures. See https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sectors/raw-materials/areas-specific-interest/critical-raw-materials/critical-raw-materials-act_en for further information.

With the current lack of commercial scale graphite anode materials production within the EU, Grafintec’s GAMP development in the GigaVaasa area is believed to fulfil the requirements for classification as a strategic project. Grafintec is assessing the procedure for the GAMP to be selected as a strategic project. Classification as a strategic project would enable the GAMP to take advantage of access to support for financing and streamlined permitting procedures which will enable the company to meet its goals to be in production by 2027.

Appointment of J.T Starzecki to Board of Directors

Golden Metal Resources plc (LON: GMET), an AIM-listed mineral exploration company focused on tungsten, gold, copper and silver within Nevada, USA, announces the appointment of Mr. J.T Starzecki as a Non-Executive Director.

Biography:

Mr. Jason Thomas (“J.T”) Starzecki is a Minneapolis, Minnesota, based global business executive, with extensive experience in the junior mining and minerals space focussed on market development, capital raising, project finance, U.S. government affairs, business strategy, and product placement.

He is currently the Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) of 5E Advanced Materials (“5E”) a Nasdaq listed development and near-term mining company that is positioned to become a vertically integrated leader in Boron⁺ advanced materials with their boron resource located in Southern California. At 5E he is responsible for leading various capital markets activities for the company, developing and leading the business strategy relating to the near-term production of boric acid, lithium and Boron⁺ materials, as well as managing government relations including non-dilutive U.S. government funding.

Mr Starzecki has been a board advisor/member to various junior mining companies focused on various minerals including, gold, silver, magnesite, kaolin, and nickel.

He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Accounting from St. John’s University located in Collegeville, Minnesota, U.S.

Management Changes

Mr. Starzecki is replacing Scott Richardson Brown. Mr. Richardson Brown has helped guide the Company through the admission process and provided valuable assistance over the past several months as Golden Metal has started its life as a public company.

The appointment of Mr. Starzecki reflects Golden Metal’s growing presence within the U.S. which also includes the planned listing of the Company on the OTCQB market, expected to be completed within the coming weeks.

Oliver Friesen, CEO of Golden Metal, commented: 

“I am delighted to welcome J.T to Golden Metal’s board of directors. As our commercial and corporate presence in the U.S. continues to grow, it is very important that this is reflected in our board composition.”

“Mr Starzecki has a rare skillset that we believe blends well with the current Golden Metal team and most importantly his board appointment reflects the current direction of the Company as we continue to advance our 100% owned Pilot Mountain Project, which hosts what is believed to be the largest undeveloped tungsten resource on U.S. soil.”

“I would also like to thank Scott on behalf of the board and all the shareholders for his valuable advice during his time with the Company.”

J.T Starzecki, Non-executive Director of Golden Metal, commented: 

“I am delighted to be joining Golden Metal Resources’ board of directors. With a background in capital markets, commercial, and overall business strategy I’ve spent almost two decades advancing and building various global mining projects. I welcome the opportunity to bring my 17 years’ experience to the Company as we look to advance our flagship Pilot Mountain Project in Nevada.”

Regulatory Disclosures:

The following information is disclosed pursuant to Rule 17 and Schedule Two paragraph (g) of the AIM Rules for Companies in relation to Mr. Starzecki, aged 49:

 Mr. Starzecki does not hold any shares in Golden Metal.

There is no further information to be disclosed pursuant to paragraph (g) of Schedule 2 of the AIM rules.

For further information visit www.goldenmetalresources.com

The FTSE AIM market has fallen in value by a third over the past five years, and 12% in 2023 alone.

By Charles Archer

Of course, small caps are all about picking the winners — but in an environment where the market as a whole continues to slide, it can become disheartening — especially when otherwise excellent companies are dragged down by negative market sentiment.

However, the key thing to understand is this: the AIM market peak in September 2021 came just three months before the Bank of England started to increase the base rate — all the way from 0.1% to 5.25% at present. As rates rise, low-risk bonds, certain blue chip stocks, and savings accounts all become more attractive, while riskier small caps become unattractive.

To understand this in practice, consider that between 2009 and 2021, there were virtually no risk-free investing choices worth looking at. But now, you can get a 100% guaranteed 6.2% annual return on an NS&I growth bond.

This means that if you plan to invest £1,000 in an FTSE AIM company over the course of a year, the true cost of the investment is actually £1,062 — because you are also forgoing that guaranteed return. Or in other words, your investment has to rise to cover the cost of stamp duty, and then an additional 6.2%, to cover the risk premium.

Obviously, this has made investing in small caps unattractive on an individual basis, though this is only half of the equation as it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. With investment deserting the sector, share placements have to be done at deep discounts to attract investors — and investors know this, so stop investing, further worsening the cycle.

The alternative is taking on debt at unsustainable terms — many companies have done this, and many will sink as a result.

But despondency is where the best value can be found. Most analysts consider that rates have either peaked or come close to their peak. This means that the macroeconomic downward pressure on small caps is ending because they have now corrected to a fair risk premium.

And when the rate cuts come, AIM shares should in theory start to rise as the risk premium falls and financing becomes easier. Therefore, the market bottom may not be in, but it will be soon. And when you add in a catalyst or two, sparks can fly.

Small caps to watch

• Amaroq

I continually try to highlight AMRQ as an excellent opportunity. The gold miner has serious interests in Greenland gold mining, as well as a strong portfolio of critical minerals. The company is backed by serious players and recently upgraded its Icelandic listing to the Nasdaq Main Market.

At flagship Nalunaq, the plan is to deliver ore from a mining trial in Q1, before the first gold production no later than the end of H2 2024. Shares have risen by 40% year-to-date, and substantially since the company was first highlighted by ShareTalk.

• ECR Minerals

ECR has had a fairly unpleasant few years, but oversold companies are often where value can be found. It’s recently raised £580,000 through a direct subscription at 0.175p per share via a cocktail of high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors.

Managing Director Nick Tulloch and Chief Operations Officer Mike Whitlow have recently joined the board, and it has an ongoing strategic review of assets — such as core gold opportunities in Australia — today announcing extended Gold Prospectivity and a Niobium Bullseye Discovery at the Lolworth Project.

• Golden Metal Resources

GMET recently announced a significant 10km2 conductive zone at its recently acquired Kibby Basin lithium project in Nevada, USA. However, the focus is on the 100%-owned Pilot Mountain project, a 5,908-acre project located just 20km from Mina in Nevada, part of the world-famous Walker Lane Mineral Belt.

It’s the largest undeveloped Tungsten deposit on US soil — and the US Department of Defense is banning the import of the metal from China from 2026, even though the country represents 86% of global tungsten exports. CEO Oliver Friesen has a signed offtake letter of intent and is pursuing non-dilutive US government grant funding.

• Abingdon Health

ABDX released its saliva-based pregnancy test in June, and the product is now available inside 400 Superdrug shops, Superdrug.com, 298 Tesco shops and Tesco.com. The company estimates that 12.5 million pregnancy tests were performed in the UK in 2022, while the global pregnancy test kits market was valued at $1.7 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $2.28 billion by 2028.

This is a product that could truly disrupt the pregnancy testing market, and shares are trading at a fair value.

• LifeSafe

At 35p, LifeSafe shares may be appealing to value investors, after the company got a much-needed placing out of the way, raising £1.2 million in August. Its StaySafe All-in-1 fire extinguisher can extinguish virtually any fire, including lithium-ion battery fires — and the product is popular, with revenue in the first four months to 30 April rising by 200% to £2.1 million.

Interim results are due tomorrow, which should make for good reading after the company launches the flagship in 850 Screwfix shops and online.

• Tekcapital

Tekcapital holds shares in four portfolio companies, but the crown jewel remains its 97% ownership of MicroSalt, which has developed a patented process to produce salt crystals with the same flavour and half the sodium content of normal table salt.

The portfolio company already has many partnerships in place and looks to launch an IPO in the near future — with ongoing conversations to develop further partnerships with major snack food players.

• OptiBiotix

Perhaps viewed as the other half of the same coin, OPTI has developed SweetBiotix — a patented sugar substitute which is classed as a dietary fibre and is attached to several health benefits.

The company signed a significant manufacturing agreement with a US partner in September 2020, guaranteeing annual milestones and royalties on sales with blue chip companies including Kellogg’s, Nestle, and Coca-Cola.

Most recently, OPTI has agreed to launch several of its products with Boots in Q1 2024, with a shop launch potentially happening in May 2024.

• Premier African Minerals

PREM investors have seen highs of 1p+ and lows below 0.3p per share over the past few months. Tough negotiations between the company and offtake partner Canmax have resulted in a tight, though achievable, timeline to deliver spodumene concentrate — and the necessary upgrades to get the plant producing are well underway.

With the first delivery due in Q4, investors are hoping that the days of volatility are over — though any lithium investor who has followed the ASX companies know that first sales are just the start.

• Kodal Minerals

KOD investors may be starting to feel like Fry’s dog Seymour out of Futurama. The >$100 million agreement with Hainan to finance the development of Bougouni in Mali was initially agreed in January — and nine months later, despite a goodwill of $3.5 million — the deal is yet to be finalised.

However, ongoing positive communications, confirmation that new Malian laws will not affect the project, positive on-the-ground developments over the year, and a DMS plant design close to completion mean that this deal will almost certainly go through eventually.

KOD has until Friday to finalise the deal or agree a new extension has to be agreed — investors will wait.

• Blencowe

BRES has finally completed its 100T bulk sample testing, underlining a high-quality graphite product from flagship Orom-Cross. The company has accordingly been awarded a $5 million grant from the US Development Finance Corporation — the first pre-production graphite project to receive this support.

With the DFC set to co-fund the DFS and be a lead partner to take the project into production, BRES is now looking significantly de-risked. The share price is up by 18% year-to-date, and yet, this is a small increase when you consider the improved fundamentals.

• Tertiary Minerals

TYM and Arc Minerals are perhaps best to be treated as an investment pair. Though very different in size and prospects, both are hunting for copper in Zambia.

ARCM’s JV with Anglo-American may soon yield investor fruit. Meanwhile, TYM today announced a detailed, non-binding term sheet for an earn-in and JV with a ‘well-resourced mineral exploration and mining company’ third party, worth up to $6 million. Given TYM’s geographical closeness to the ARCM claims, a betting man would name Anglo as the partner.

• Avacta

Avacta’s flagship AVA6000 continues to go from strength to strength, though the real turning point could well be hard data from the Phase 1A clinical trials. The treatment is designed to deliver higher doses of chemotherapy, but without side effects — and where many others have failed, early results look extremely promising.

Having said this, short-term financing needs to be looked at, with CEO Alastair Smith favouring non-dilutive terms.

The bottom line

Long-term investing in the small-cap market — and particularly in AIM shares — is about timing the bottom. These 12 companies would be valued much higher in a looser monetary environment, and all 12 could see decent share price rises into Q4 as sentiment improves, or as a catalyst gets lit.

Time to buy the dip?

By Charles Archer

This article has been prepared for information purposes only by Charles Archer. It does not constitute advice, and no party accepts any liability for either accuracy or for investment decisions made using the information provided. Further, it is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

Late last year, the digital chatbot ChatGPT made quite an impression globally, and now, it’s back with additional capabilities. OpenAI has enhanced its bot to speak, listen, and “see” the environment it operates in, intensifying the competition with other tech giants like Amazon’s Alexa and Apple’s Siri.

Now, OpenAI has incorporated a “push to talk” feature that enables users to have interactive dialogues with the AI bot by asking spoken questions.

Furthermore, users can snap a photograph and pose questions to ChatGPT about the captured image.

Here’s how OpenAI illustrates these innovative features:

These new tools in voice and image provide additional avenues to integrate ChatGPT into daily activities. Capture an image of a landmark during your travels and engage in a live dialogue about its significance.

At home, photograph the contents of your fridge and pantry to decide on dinner, and ask follow-up questions to get a detailed recipe. Post dinner, assist your child with math homework by snapping a picture, highlighting the problem, and letting it provide hints for both of you.

Nevertheless, anticipating possible criticism or inappropriate remarks from the chatbot, OpenAI has imposed restrictions on the bot’s ability to observe and comment on individuals.

OpenAI has also implemented technical precautions to substantially curb ChatGPT’s capacity to assess and comment directly on individuals, acknowledging that ChatGPT may not always be accurate and that the system should uphold individuals’ privacy.

Screenings of “Dumb Money,” a film released the previous week depicting the GameStop short squeeze, will be accompanied by a warning from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regarding investment risks.

The FCA intends to demonstrate through this measure how public enthusiasm can influence investment decisions and encourages the audience to undertake comprehensive research before yielding to tempting online propositions.

Positioned in the prestigious ‘Gold Spot’—the last advertisement showcased before the commencement of the film—the message utilizes the cinema’s dimming lights and vacant screen to deliver a voiceover about a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make some serious money.”

The revelation that such advice is sourced from an unidentified online forum user concludes the message, subsequently emphasizing the FCA’s cautionary slogan, ‘Don’t Get Played.’ The advertisement also directs viewers to online resources where they can seek advice on secure investment practices.

By employing digital displays in cinema lobbies, geo-targeted ads aimed at cinema attendees, and online advertisements in places frequented by investment researchers, the strategy aims to inform viewers of the perils associated with heeding online investment advice—perhaps even endeavouring to prevent a sequel to “Dumb Money” from materializing.

“Dumb Money” narrates the tale of the 2021 GameStop short squeeze, a financial episode causing significant losses for numerous hedge funds and investment firms. These entities had extensively shorted the faltering video game retailer’s stock, which unexpectedly became a viral meme stock for individual investors.

Groups of retail investors, congregating on social platforms like Reddit, played a crucial role in escalating the value of GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME), consequently compelling those who had shorted the stock to either sell or face escalating losses.

Several retail investors, some of whom had realized substantial profits from investing in the meme-stock, have since witnessed a considerable erosion of the value accrued during that period. Presently, GameStop’s stock is trading nearly 70% below its peak values in 2021.

The uranium mining industry faced significant challenges after the Fukushima nuclear incident in Japan in 2011, and it has yet to fully recover.

However, the world is grappling with other urgent issues, including climate change and lifting billions out of poverty globally. Nuclear energy can provide solutions for both, and after a reasonable interval post-Fukushima, it is regaining popularity.

All the leading candidates for the US Presidential election next year support nuclear energy, with Robert Kennedy Junior as the exception. Donald Trump supports it, and incumbent Joe Biden cannot compromise his environmental stance by transitioning from nuclear to more carbon-intensive energy sources like oil. Ron De Santis asserted in February that nuclear is the cleanest power source “of all.”

In China, the construction of nuclear power stations is underway on a large scale. The French have notably avoided many challenges of the recent European energy crisis due to their substantial investment in nuclear, and plans for additional plants are in progress globally.

Subsequently, the spot price of uranium recently surpassed US$65 per pound, reaching its highest since Fukushima. Consequently, the demand for uranium, along with uranium miners, is making a comeback.

It is estimated that by 2030, the world’s nuclear reactors will need 79,400 tonnes of uranium, an increase from 62,500 tonnes in 2021. By 2040, this figure is expected to rise to 112,300 tonnes.

However, the situation is nuanced. Much like the oil industry, major producers in Kazakhstan and Canada typically reduce production to establish a price floor when prices fall. When prices increase, production resumes. Thus, while the long-term trend seems positive, predicting any dramatic developments may be premature.

What appears more plausible is a steady, gradual growth. Given this, it’s understandable that many mining companies invested in uranium also diversify their portfolios with other assets.

This diversification is evident across the market spectrum, from major players like Rio Tinto and BHP, both having substantial uranium operations, to smaller entities. For instance, Power Metal Resources (AIM: POW), one of the more promising London-listed uranium juniors, holds extensive land in Canada for uranium prospecting and maintains diverse global assets in gold, nickel, and other base metals.

For Power Metals, which has recently undergone a management change, the emphasis has largely shifted towards uranium in the fertile Athabasca Basin in Canada. Prominent investors in Canadian uranium, such as Rick Rule, have shown interest, and the narrative appears to be gaining momentum.

However, for those solely seeking exposure to uranium, two additional options are available to UK investors. One is Geiger Counter Ltd, a long-established uranium-centric fund managed by New City Investment Managers.

Another is Yellow Cake PLC (AIM: YCA), which directly purchases and retains uranium stocks, alongside making various investments in the uranium mining sector.

For those in pursuit of investing specifically in uranium miners, the search will need to extend further.

Cameco, based in Canada, stands as the largest and most reputable, succeeded by Denison, with numerous emerging juniors dispersed throughout the Athabasca and globally, notably in Australia. Namibia is also a key player, and significant deposits are found in the southwestern US.

Making uranium ventures successful isn’t always straightforward, but the past two decades have witnessed billion-dollar transactions in London, and there is no indication that such occurrences won’t reemerge.

Synergia Energy Limited (“Synergia” or the “Company”), is pleased to announce the following update on the Cambay C-77H workover operation.

The jet pump installation into the C-77H well has been successfully completed and the artificial lift system is operational. The fluids in the wellbore, both condensate and brine, are currently being lifted (brine was used to kill the well prior to the pump installation).

Further announcements concerning production rates will be made once the well has been cleared of fluids and flow rates have stabilised.

For and on behalf of Synergia Energy Limited

Roland Wessel

CEO

Zak Mir takes a charting look at some of the most followed small caps on the London stock market. Today’s charts are FTSE 100, Dax, Dow, Bitcoin, Arkle, Arrow, Cornerstone, Chill, ECR, Gulf Keystone, Jersey, OPG, Orcadian, Prospex, Shield, Tertiary Minerals, Tribal, Tekcapital, Transense.

Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engaging in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.

Metal prices pull back as Evergrande struggles with refinancing plans

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Equity placing raises £3m for expansion of Pitfield drilling programme

Kavango Resources (KAV LN) – Expansion of exploration area in the KCB

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – BUY– Term Sheet signed with mining company for earn-in agreement at Konkola West

VOX:    https://audioboom.com/posts/8372001-john-meyer-discusses-heat-pumps-the-energy-transition-plus-bluejay-jay-kodal-kod-savannah-sav

https://audioboom.com/posts/8368469-john-meyer-on-chinese-stimulus-plus-arc-bushveld-cornish-metals-empire-metals-tertiary-min

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

Copper slides as China smelters hold fees higher on abundant concentrate supply

• Copper prices slid to $8,140/t over the weekend following a meeting among Chinese smelters.
• The group met to set guidance for Q4 on treatment and refining charges, deciding to hold TCs at $95/t.
• The rate was last this high in 2017.
• Higher charges usually point to higher supply of mined ore.
• The inflows from Tenke Fungurume and Peru alongside the ramp up of Teck’s QB2 in Chile are some of the reasons for the increase in concentrate supply.
• A copper surplus is expected by analysts next year before shifting into deficit from 2025.
• Chinese smelters have also been boosting capacity, despite a reduction in downstream demand following the slowdown in the property sector.
• Shanghai premiums are bouncing from a discount ten days ago, although remain far depressed from the 640CNY/t levels seen earlier this year.
• LME stockpiles climbed again over the weekend, to their highest level since May 2022.

Iron ore sells off on concerns over weak steel sales and production cuts

• Dalian iron ore fell 2% to $115/t.
• Singapore iron ore down 4% to $116/t.
• Analysts expect demand to have overstretched for the steelmaking ingredient as pre-holiday stockpiling comes to an end.
• Coking coal and coke both sold off too.
• China is set to go on a week-long holiday for the Mid-Autumn festival from September 29^th.
• Developers struggling with liabilities add to concerns, with Evergrande warning it is unable to issue new debt as authorities investigate a subsidiary.

Gold slides as higher treasury yields push ETF holdings to multi-year lows

• Gold prices are struggling to climb above $1,930/oz in the spot market.
• US Treasury yields climbed again following last week’s bond rout, with the 10-year rising to 4.49%.
• The dollar is also weighing on gold prices, with the DXY index sitting at 6-month highs.
• ETFs have sold off physical holdings to January 2020 lows.
• COMEX data suggests hedge funds are ramping up bullish gold bets, although analysts suggest this is likely short covering.
• PCE inflation data due on Friday will likely be this week’s key data point for gold traders.

UK – The real reasons why the UK is not able to ban the sale of ICE engine cars in favour of Zero-emission cars by 2030

• Rishi Sunak has delayed the ban on the sale of petrol, diesel and hybrid vehicles till 2035.
• In fact we wonder if the UK will even be able to meet the 2035 deadline given the slow progress in developing the required infrastructure.
• As Sukak says, the rate of adoption by consumers is good enough for now, but we suspect the nation is barely keeping up with the infrastructure required.
• Long delays are already being reported on grid connections for new charging infrastructure and this could get worse as the nation moves towards heat pumps for offices and housing.
• Yes, heat pumps are energy efficient but they still used electricity, lots of electricity.
• Yes, you can install a 12Kw or 16Kw heat pump suitable for 3-4 bedroom houses and run a trickle charger for an Electric Vehicle on a Single-Phase grid connection.
• Fortunately, heat pump manufacturers say they can make heat pumps that run at up to 80C though regular heat pumps run at 45-55C meaning the average household should not have to replace all its radiators. The downside is that heat pumps that run at 80C cost ~20% more to run with an efficiency rating of ~250% vs 300%.
• But if you want a fast charger you are going to need to install a 3-phase power line which is going to require new cabling into your property.
• The complexity of installing heat pumps alongside fast car chargers alongside current lead times for three-phase grid connections suggest to us the that the nation could struggle to meet its 2035 targets when all new gas and oil boilers will need to be replaced by heat pumps.

Economics

US – Composite preliminary PMI numbers came in slightly below estimates hitting a seven month low reflecting muted demand conditions in September.

• A pullback in the services sector growth led a general slowdown.
• New business orders fell at the strongest pace since Dec/22 on the back of high borrowing costs and inflationary pressures.
• Total export orders were also down reflecting general weakening growth momentum overseas and recession concerns in key export markets like Europe.
• Oddly, employment climbed at the fastest rate since May with stronger labour market reported in both manufacturing and services sectors.
• Higher wages and fuel costs added to input cost inflation, although, subdued end demand conditions limited firms’ ability to pass through additional costs onto final consumers.
• Manufacturing PMI: 48.9 v 47.9 August and 48.2 est.
• Services PMI: 50.2 v 50.5 August and 50.7 est.
• Composite PMI: 50.1 v 50.2 August and 50.4 est.

China – Bloomberg gauge of Chinese property developers dropped more than 6% Monday on the back of negative newsflow from troubled real estate companies.

• Evergrande shares plunged as much as 25% this morning after the developer announced of its inability to meet regulator conditions to issue new bonds as part of its planned restructuring of at least $30bn of offshore debt, Bloomberg writes.
• Separately, China Oceanwide Holdings, a Chinese property investor, reported that it faces court ordered liquidation as lenders seek to recover $175m in unrepaid loans

Germany – Business sentiment continued to slide in September, albeit, at a slightly slower rate than expected.

• “Once again, companies were less satisfied with their current business situation… however, pessimism regarding the coming months dissipated slightly… the German economy appears to have bottomed out,” Ifo president commented on the data.
• Faced with waning export demand, higher interest rates and stronger energy prices the economy has been struggling to regain growth momentum with estimates for a 0.3%yoy drop in GDP in 2023 (2022: +1.8%).
• Ifo Business Climate: 85.7 v 85.8 August (revised from 85.7) and 85.2 est.
• Ifo Current Assessment: 88.7 v 89.0 August and 88.0 est.
• Ifo Business Expectations: 82.9 v 82.7 August (revised from 82.6) and 83.0 est.

Currencies

US$1.0649/eur vs 1.0665/eur previous. Yen 148.36/$ vs 148.38/$. SAr 18.800/$ vs 18.887/$. $1.224/gbp vs $1.228/gbp. 0.642/aud vs 0.643/aud. CNY 7.309/$ vs 7.300/$.

Dollar Index 105.61 vs 105.50 previous.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,923/oz vs US$1,926/oz previous

Gold ETFs 88.8moz vs 89moz previous

Platinum US$927/oz vs US$931/oz previous

Palladium US$1,245/oz vs US$1,277/oz previous

Silver US$23.50/oz vs US$24/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,100/oz vs US$4,100/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$ 8,189/t vs US$8,232/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,231/t vs US$2,229/t previous

Nickel US$ 19,425/t vs US$19,230/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,537/t vs US$2,541/t previous

Lead US$ 2,194/t vs US$2,189/t previous

Tin US$ 26,140/t vs US$25,515/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$93.8/bbl vs US$93.7/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were stable over the weekend as OPEC+ supply cuts continue to outweigh demand uncertainty in the markets.
• European gas prices moved higher despite union workers suspending industrial action after accepting a proposed settlement on pay and conditions put forward by Australia’s labour regulator.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 11 units to 630 rigs last week (-134 or 17% y/y), with oil rigs falling by 8 to 507 units (-95 y/y) and gas rigs down 3 to 118 units (-42 y/y), including a 5-rig drop in Texas (312).
• Media reports that TotalEnergies is looking to sell its 40% stake in the gas field development of the Greater Laggan Area of the UK North Sea, which is expected to produce 25kboe/d this year.

Natural Gas €40.050/MWh vs €38.700/MWh previous

Uranium UXC US$65.50/lb vs US$65.50/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$118.1/t vs US$118.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$538.1/t vs US$538.4/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$130.0/t vs US$128.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$158.0/t vs US$159.8/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$324.0/t vs US$324.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,420/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,280/t vs US$71,370/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,001/t vs US$21,301/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,370/t vs US$2,370/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,033/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/mtu vs US$305/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$645/t vs US$645/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.6/lb vs US$6.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 29.25/kg vs US$29.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$315/t vs US$316/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$87.2/t vs US$87.3/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$355.0/tBattery News

Company News

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 4.13p, Mkt Cap £20m – Equity placing raises £3m for expansion of Pitfield drilling programme

CLICK FOR PDF

(Empire holds a 70% interest in the Pitfield prospect 313km north of Perth, WA)

• Empire Metals reports an oversubscribed placing of 75m new ordinary shares at 4p/share, raising £3m before expenses.
• Empire is currently executing a 1,500m diamond core programme.
• The placing will precede an RC drilling campaign to confirm the size and scale of the titanium-enriched mineral system.
• A second programme has now been scheduled for early 2024, following the Phase 1 RC programme due before the end of this year.
• Mineralogical and metallurgical studies will also be enabled by the additional funds.
• An updated presentation on the Company website highlights the potential for the sediment-hosted hydrothermally altered titanium-mineralised system at Pitfield.

Conclusion: Today’s equity raise supports Empire’s ambitions of conduction a large-scale drilling programme across much of the 40km x 8km magnetic anomaly at Pitfield. Drilling results so far have shown extensive mineralised widths of titanium-hematite alteration. TIO2 accounts for 90% of pigment production and the current supply outlook from diminishing beach sand projects presents an interesting opportunity for ‘soft rock’ sedimentary-hosted deposit development. Metallurgical studies will provide additional clarification as to the extent of the opportunity at Pitfield for future economic development.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Kavango Resources (KAV LN) 0.65p, Mkt cap £5.1m – Expansion of exploration area in the KCB

• Kavango Resources reports that it is to acquire additional Prospecting Licences in the Kalahari Copper Belt (KCB) of Botswana consolidating its land position around its existing licences in the South Ghanzi Block.
• The company will acquire a 90% interest in licences between its existing Karakubis Block and the South Ghanzi licences for a total of A$2.5m, to be paid in stages “giving Kavango a single, contiguous project area to explore”.
• Under the agreement with two subsidiaries of Global Exploration Technologies (Icon Trading and Ashmead Holdings) Kavango will pay an initial A$1.5m in cash upon completion of the acquisition followed by two further cash payments, each of A$500,000, after 90 days and 180 days.
• The Ashmead licences are due for renewal in June 2024 and those currently held by Icon are renewable in September 2025.
• The additional licences are believed to host the contact zone between the D’Kar and Ngwako Pan Formations which hosts economic mineralisation elsewhere within the Kalahari Copper Belt, including at the T3 deposit of Sandfire Resources and at Khoemacau Mining’s Zone 5 deposit where, in February, mining reached the targeted 300,000tpm rate.
• The new licences also give Kavango Resources coverage of “a single regional system that incorporates notable domal structures, which are key exploration targets in the search for large-scale copper/silver mineralisation”.
• Chief Executive, Ben Turney, expressed confidence that “uninterrupted control of the single system in this portion of the Kalahari Copper Belt … significantly increases our chances of making a discovery here”.
• He said that the company will now review “exploration data for the new licence areas and the results of our recently completed IP surveys at the Karakubis project area. Our goal is to identify high-confidence drill targets to pursue in Q1 next year”.

Conclusion: The additional licences consolidate Kavango Resources’ position over a stratigraphically and structurally promising part of the Kalahari Copper Belt in Botswana.  We await news from the continuing exploration with interest.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.14p, Mkt cap £3.25m – BUY– Term Sheet signed with mining company for earn in agreement at Konkola West

CLICK FOR PDF

• Tertiary and its JV partner Mwashia Resources have signed a non-binding term sheet with a Third Party at the Konkola West project in Zambia.
• The Company reports that the Third Party is a ‘well-resourced mineral exploration and mining company.’
• The Term Sheet suggests the Third party commits to an initial drill programme at Konkola which offers it the right to earn an initial 51% interest in the licence.
• The Third Party would old the option to then acquire up to 70% of the licence through the sole funding of a cumulative $6m on exploration within 48 months of the initial signing.
• The initial earn in agreement would reduce Tertiary’s holding to 39% and Mwashia’s to 10%, with Stage 2 to reduce this to 20% and 10% respectively.

Conclusion: The non-binding agreement presents an exciting opportunity for Tertiary to progress Konkola West alongside a deeper-pocketed and experienced operating the partner. Given the expected scale and depth of Konkola West – Stage 1 holes expected to extend further than 1km deep – the cooperation via an earn-in agreement is a wise approach by the Tertiary team to generate value from the asset. Konkola West lies down strike from the Konkola-Lubambe mining area, with the team’s geologists hoping to target a deep extension of these deposits.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite	Asian Metal

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%

Zak Mir talks to Cedric Simonet, CEO of Altona Rare Earths, as the resource exploration and development company focused on Rare Earths in Africa, announces its maiden JORC compliant Mineral Resource Estimate for its Monte Muambe rare earths project in Mozambique.

Altona Mineral Resource announced its maiden JORC-compliant Mineral Resource Estimate for its Monte Muambe rare earths project in Mozambique. 13.6 million tons at 2.42% TREO(1) using a cut-off grade of 1.5% TREO; Including 0.31% NdPrO(2) representing 42,500 contained tons NdPrO. The company said Monte Muambe’s maiden MRE is an important milestone.

This is the first-ever official measure of the size and grade of the project and it is delighted with the results, which confirm the presence of a potentially open-pit mineable REE resource. The Company is now finalising its Scoping Study, which will give a first-pass economic viability overview of the project, to the highest standard.

Key highlights: 

·    13.6 million tons at 2.42% TREO⁽¹⁾ using a cut-off grade of 1.5% TREO;

·    Including 0.31% NdPrO⁽²⁾ representing 42,500 contained tons NdPrO;

·    58% of the reported tonnage in the Indicated category;

·    Mineralisation open at depth at both Target 1 and Target 4; and

·    The Scoping Study is expected to be finalised for publication no later than the third week of October.

Comment: REE is the new rock and roll in mining, and for this to be open-pit mineable is even more pleasing for ANR. It would appear the company is delivering on the promise of its backers and management.

The complete Competent Person Statement is available on the Company’s website investor section: https://www.altonare.com/investors/reports/

ECR Minerals plc (LON: ECR), the exploration and development company focused on gold in Australia, is pleased to announce the latest exploration developments for the Lolworth Project, North Queensland, Australia.

The Lolworth Project is located approximately 120km west of the historic gold mining centre of Charters Towers, North Queensland, Australia. The project consists of three exploration tenements (EPM27901, EPM27902 and EPM27903) and are operated under the 100% owned LUX Exploration Pty Ltd. The Company has identified numerous Gold, Niobium and REE anomalous within the project.

HIGHLIGHTS

• 81 follow-up pan concentrate stream samples results have been returned. Best results include 128 ppm Au, 23.7 ppm Au, 42.3 ppm Au and 60.9 ppm Au. These results have further extended the gold prospectivity of the Reedy Creek area to the west.
• Results (pXRF) from a tighter spaced soil sampling campaign in the Oaky Creek area have identified an interesting Niobium target.
• Field work, including rock chipping, mapping and tighter spaced pan concentrate stream sampling at both Woolshed Creek and Gorge Creek prospects continue to reveal visible gold, indicating potential for increased prospectivity across the project area.

ECR Managing Director Nick Tulloch commented: “In the midst of significant structural changes at ECR and our ongoing work to evaluate the Company’s asset base, Adam Jones and the field team are to be commended for their tireless work in bringing these exciting developments at our Lolworth Range project to life.”

ECR Chief Operations Officer Mike Whitlow added: “Echoing Nick’s words, our team have been particularly pleased with the latest results as this gives confirmation to our exploration thesis at Lolworth, 128 ppm Gold being our best result has been supported by a number of additional very high-grade samples taken within the surrounding area. Whilst we recognise the early stage nature of this work, the confidence in today’s announcement leaves us naturally inspired to continue our efforts at Lolworth towards the end of the year, at which point we will have the perfect opportunity to plan our accelerated future work programme. We are understandably very excited by this latest development.”

Figure One: Oaky Creek Niobium soil anomaly:

https://www.ecrminerals.com/images/2023/Fig1_Niobium-230924.png

Figure Two: Reedy Creek gold result:

https://www.ecrminerals.com/images/2023/Fig2_Reedy-Ck-230924.png

Figure Three: Woolshed Creek gold anomalism:

https://www.ecrminerals.com/images/2023/Fig3_Woolshed-Ck-230924.png

Figure Four: Visible gold extent from sampling in Upper Gorge Creek:

https://www.ecrminerals.com/images/2023/Fig4_Gorge-Ck-West.png

NIOBIUM SOIL SAMPLING RESULTS (Oaky Creek)

Since commencing work at Oaky Creek, ECR has logged a series of highly anomalous Niobium (Nb) and Tantalum (Ta) stream sampling results from the upper reaches of the creek.

The Company reported up to 146 ppm Nb in the first pass soil sampling grid on the 19^th July 2023 (see July 19 2023 RNS here). Whilst still early stage, the high priority zones identified from the first pass grid and tested in-house using a pXRF have been followed up, and 17 samples reporting greater than 80 ppm Nb have been identified, with a best result of 497 ppm Nb. It is important to note the results from pXRF data are qualitative not quantitative and should only be used for identifying the pathfinder anomaly.

These new results combined with the first pass soil sampling show strongly elevated levels of Nb within the centre of the sampled area. Previous high-grade Nb and Ta results from sampling the drainage systems that originate from this elevated centre support the new soil sampling results within the anomalous area and bullseye identified (shown in Figure One above).

The field team and the Board have agreed that the next logical next step will be to undertake a traverse ‘ridge and spur’ rock chip sampling program over the anomalous area. This work is expected to be completed before the 2023 field season ends.

PAN CONCENTRATE SAMPLING PROGRAMME UPDATE

Results from a further 81 samples have been received from the ongoing pan concentrate stream sampling program from streams tested in the northern part of the tenement area. Although these results returned no gold, a small group of samples were taken from streams located approximately 2km to the west of the Reedy Creek area which returned high concentrations of gold with results up to 128 ppm Au. Visible coarse gold particles were often seen during the sampling process and for the majority, correlate well with the best laboratory gold results. More significantly, these results extend the gold footprint further west from Reedy Creek, and a follow-up soil sample grid programme has been scheduled for completion in the near future (see Reedy Creek map images in Figure Two above). All gold results greater than 0.1 ppm Au have been tabled in Appendix One to this announcement.

The majority of these stream results have been taken from outside of the Niobium-Tantalum and REE prospective area. Results have returned 14 stream samples reporting greater than 80 ppm Nb with one best result of 2380 ppm Nb. This best result also correlates to other REE elements including Lanthanum (La), Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), Ta and Yttrium (Y). The best Nb results have been identified within isolated creeks in the eastern part of the project area and are encouraging signs for the regional prospectivity for critical minerals and REE in other unexplored areas of the tenement area. All received Nb results greater than 80 ppm are tabulated in Appendix One to this announcement.

RECENT FIELD WORK

ECR Technical Director Adam Jones visited the Lolworth Project in September. He and his field team collected some 180 rock chips from prospective outcrops at Woolshed Creek area and the upper reaches of Gorge Creek and were greatly encouraged by the general prospectivity of the region. The lab results for this work are due in October 2023.

Within the upper reaches of the Gorge Creek catchment area, the creek system divides into western and eastern tributaries. While undertaking sampling work in the western tributary, the field team noted visible gold up to the dividing range spur and acquired a number of small gold nuggets up to 11 grams in weight. A targeted soil sampling program is now underway across the spur to identify the source of this gold (see Figure Four above).

The Company has also undertaken detailed outcrop mapping and rock chip sampling within the Woolshed Creek area which is located north west of Reedy Creek (see Figure Three above). A series of parallel creeks showing gold values backed up by visible gold were identified previously, and a rock chip located in a narrow-mineralised vein returned 4.73 g/t Au. The field team returned to this vein during the September 2023 work programme to map out and rock chip sample other similar small veins running in parallel. Results from this work are expected in October 2023. Although it is unlikely that all veins will be gold-bearing, the Board and field team are of the opinion that the trend of previous stream results in the area along the strike of outcrop provides sufficient evidence to mark out the zone as an area of high prospectivity. A follow-up soil sampling grid over this strike area is planned shortly.

NEXT STEPS

The exploration season in North Queensland typically ends by December 2023 with the onset of the tropical wet season and with flooding preventing access. Before this, our exploration work plan is shown below with the objective being to gather sufficient data to be analysed whilst the team are off-site during the wet season to identify the broader exploration potential of the region.

1. Soil sampling programme across the creeks at the head of Gorge Creek West.
2. Ridge and spur sampling across the best Niobium soil anomalies at the Oaky Creek prospect.
3. Soil Sampling over the Woolshed Creek headwaters.

REVIEW OF ANNOUNCEMENT BY QUALIFIED PERSON

This announcement has been reviewed by Adam Jones, Technical Director of Exploration at ECR Minerals plc. Adam Jones is a professional geologist and is a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists (MAIG). He is a qualified person as that term is defined by the AIM Note for Mining, Oil and Gas Companies

Invinity Energy Systems (IES), a manufacturer of utility-grade energy storage, announced its unaudited consolidated results for the six months ended 30 June 2023 and an update on current trading.

£14.8m total income including sales revenue and project-related grant income, a 10x increase YoY (H1 2022: £1.5m). £3.3m gross loss reflecting previously disclosed and accounted for contract losses on Canadian and Australian projects (H1 2022: loss £2.1m). The company also announced that the United States Department of Energy plans to fund projects that will use 84 MWh of Invinity’s next-generation product, code-named “Mistral,” in six sites across the U.S.  IES said that when it released its final results for 2022, it said that 2023 would be an inflection point. It saw record income first half, up by ten times year over year. It made significant progress on Mistral, its joint product development with Gamesa Electric and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy.

Comment: It would appear that the U.S. Government is splashing out the cash at the moment, with it being an obvious validation for the company and its flagship Mistral product. If the shares are not back at year highs through 60p in a heartbeat one would want to know the reason why.

There was a TR1 for Mirriad Advertising (MIRI), with new entrants to the shareholder register in at 12%. The RNS stated that the increase in shareholding outlined in this form has been driven by the all-share combination of Rathbones Group Plc with Investec Wealth & Investment Limited which completed on 21st September 2023.

Comment: We have a very posh sounding TR1, based in the Channel Islands for Mirriad, so the stakebuilding sounds serious for what has been a rollercoaster for shareholders.

Oracle Power (ORCP), the international natural resources project developer, announced its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2023. The company said that during the first half of 2022, it actively pivoted towards a more environmentally responsible project development strategy, by selecting green energy development to be a part of its portfolio.  This has continued into 2023. It remains determined to generate value from the investments that it has made. It has launched another significant renewable power project to create further development opportunities on its coal block in Thar.

Comment: It has been a long journey for shareholders, but it would appear that as we head for the home stretch of 2023, ORCP has delivered enough of a strategic turnaround to signal that it will deliver on its project developer handle. This is especially given the new ESG / green angles.

Altona (REE), a resource exploration and development company focused on Rare Earths in Africa, is pleased to announce its maiden JORC compliant Mineral Resource Estimate for its Monte Muambe rare earths project in Mozambique. 13.6 million tons at 2.42% TREO(1) using a cut-off grade of 1.5% TREO; Including 0.31% NdPrO(2) representing 42,500 contained tons NdPrO. The company said Monte Muambe’s maiden MRE is an important milestone. This is the first ever official measure of the size and grade of the project and it is delighted with the results, which confirm the presence of a potentially open-pit mineable REE resource. The Company is now finalising its Scoping Study, which will give a first-pass economic viability overview of the project, to the highest standard.

Comment: REE is the new rock and roll in mining, and for this to be open-pit mineable is even more pleasing for ANR. It would appear the company is delivering on the promise of its backers and management.

Coro Energy (CORO), the South East Asian energy company with a natural gas and clean energy portfolio, announced its unaudited interim results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2023. Reduced loss after tax from continuing operations of $2.5m (restated H1 2022: $3.8m) mainly due to the contribution of gross profit from Vietnam operations and a reduction in net finance expense. The Company said it has a strong funding position from a combination of its cash position of approximately $0.7m (as at 30 June 2023), and more recently supported by the post balance sheet events of the sale of shares in ion Ventures Holding Ltd and a further advance of Italy sale proceeds.

Comment: It is to be hoped that today’s RNS is taken well enough for the recent spike in the shares to continue, something which is deserved given the wat that the company has moved on its timelines.

Tertiary Minerals (TYM) announced that it and its local partner, Mwashia Resources Ltd have signed a detailed, largely non-binding, term sheet for an earn-in and joint venture agreement with a third party providing for the Third Party to earn into Exploration Licence 27067-HQ-LEL, the Konkola West Project in Zambia. The Company said it was delighted to announce the signing of this term sheet and a re-alignment of its existing agreement with Mwashia. It is envisaged that the Stage 1 drill holes will extend beyond 1km depth. Tertiary will now seek to enter into a binding EIJV Agreement with the Third party and Mwashia as soon as possible.

Comment: Shares of TYM have had a decent summer, and the latest RNS could be the one to push sentiment and the share price further in a positive direction.

Cora Gold (CORA), the West African focused gold company, announced its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2023. Following the recent promulgation of a new Mining Code in Mali, it looks forward to the government’s lifting of its moratorium on issuing new mining permits. In addition, it looks forward to providing progress updates on the funding of the Sanankoro Gold Project following the appointment of Atlantique Finance to act as sole adviser in the structuring and mobilisation of a medium-term loan of $70 million to support funding the development of the project.

Comment: Given how much positive work and effort Bert Monro and his team have done at Cora, the mining code issue seems very unfair. We look forward to the end of the moratorium.

Baron Oil (BOIL), the AIM-quoted oil and gas exploration and appraisal company focused on assets in SE Asia and the UK, announced its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2023. The company said all of its efforts are currently focused on the Chuditch PSC drilling decision to be made late in 2023 for a Chuditch-1 appraisal well. It is making good progress and are in advanced discussions with a number of potential funding partners.

Comment: It will be interesting to see whether “late 2023” is soon enough for BOIL holders, given that the main sizzle in the share price in February has rather diminished in intervening months.

Venture Life Group (VLG) Interims to September reported a 24% increase in revenue to £23.5m which include the synergistic HL Healthcare acquisition made in November 2022. The total consideration was £13m of which the £8m cash consideration is being paid through internal sources. The like-for-like sales, would have been 10.4% ahead with Gross margins improving to 18.9% but the loss before tax was £1.3m due to high financing cost etc. VLG develop, manufacture and most importantly commercialise its own brand and branded products for the international self-care market. The wide products range include Balance Activ (woman’s product) and are typically recommended by pharmacists or healthcare practitioners, available primarily through pharmacies and grocery multiples with 17 new listing with major retailers.  The order book has increased 30% suggesting a better balance of product benefits and price. There is increasing effort being made with online sales which are 69% ahead to just£1.6m suggesting plenty of further growth. The full year forecast is for profits and there is a Revolving Credit facility for up £30m of which around £15m is drawn down.

Comment: The biggest fly in the ointment for the shares at 32p with a £40m Mkt Cap is the debt burden, although self care does seem hard work.

Oxford Cannabinoid Technologies (OCTP), the pharmaceutical company developing prescription cannabinoid medicines, announced that the final dose of its lead pharmaceutical drug compound, OCT461201, has been successfully administered, as part of its Phase I clinical trial, with no drug adverse effects observed. The company said it expects to report results by 16 October 2023.

Comment: It would appear that OCTP is moving along its timelines in a very satisfactory manner, with investors currently having just a three weeks window on the latest trial results. This could provide an opportunity for a squeeze higher in the shares.

Shuka Minerals (SKA), an African focused mine operator and developer, announced the Company’s unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2023. SKA said the period was a transformative one, particularly from a corporate perspective with a strategic investment of £1.47 million secured from two African focused mining investment groups, an intended significant restructuring of the Board of Directors, a change of name to Shuka Minerals.

Comment: A new name and a chunky strategic investment for SKA suggests that we could be right in expecting a MARU type re-rate here, an idea which has already shown its hand in terms of the share price.

Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (FOG) announced the spudding of the Amungee NW-3H horizontal well in exploration permit 98 with a H&P super-spec FlexRig® Flex 3 Rig in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, Northern Territory, Australia with Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited’s joint venture partner, Tamboran (B2) Pty Limited. The company said the spudding of the A3H horizontal well, just a week after drilling the SS1H well , is an exciting acceleration in the appraisal of the Beetaloo Sub-basin. It is confident that learnings and results from the previous two Amungee wells drilled in EP 98, together with the drilling of the SS1H well will have a positive impact on the outcome of the results from this A3H well.

Comment: With the shares bumping along the bottom for much of the summer, it will be interesting to see whether there is a decent bounce off the back of current spudding news.

Panther Metals (PALM) released its Half-year Report. The company said with a significant pipeline of high-quality exploration targets, focussed on critical minerals, in a Tier 1 mining jurisdiction, as well as material holdings in two other well respected explorers, the Board consider Panther will enjoy a significant rerating when the market turns to the positive. Having actively maintained it strategy to protect its capital structure to maintain shareholder value, it sees the prospect of delivering significant shareholder returns.

Comment: It would appear it is all about the pipeline, and given a solid funding backdrop one would expect the shares to continue their recent recovery.

Author @ZaksTradersCafe

Disclaimer & Declaration of Interest:
The information, investment views, and recommendations in this Zaks Traders Cafe interview are provided for general information purposes only. Nothing in this interview should be construed as a promotion or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product relating to any companies under discussion or referred to or to engage in or refrain from doing so or engage in any other transaction. Any opinions or comments are made to the best of the knowledge and belief of the commentator but no responsibility is accepted for actions based on such opinions or comments. The commentators may or may not hold investments in the companies under discussion.