Prairie Weather (Rural Roots Canada) – Thunderstorms! Just a bit late, the storm season begins on the prairies. And…we may see 30 degree temperatures this week.

RRC soundbites · Prairie Weather This Week – May 11

A fast-moving upper trough swings across Saskatchewan and into southwestern Manitoba on Monday, with the potential to produce thunderstorms in an area already impacted by localized flooding. A second system could move through later in the week. In addition to rain and lightning, the storms will produce gusty winds and perhaps small hail. Eastern Saskatchewan is already dealing with flooding. There have been road closures due to flood waters in recent days, and as of this writing, there are still three closures in the area:

Courtesy: Highway Hotline

The map will change, possibly daily, through the week, so if you’re concerned about road closures and flooding as the storms roll through, consult Highway Hotline before heading out.

While no major organized storms are forecast for the prairies this week, the atmosphere becomes unstable again on Wednesday and Thursday, leading to the possibility of more isolated thunderstorms with strong winds and possible hail. The risk of severe storms is minimal, but not zero.

Here’s how it plays out:

Below is a map of surface weather conditions early in the morning on Sunday, May 10:

Courtesy: ECCC

The dashed blue line bisecting Alberta from north to south is a trough of low pressure. The high over western Manitoba will get out of the way, allowing that trough to move eastward, and it will be in Saskatchewan by Monday morning. There, it will do its dirty work, producing the aforementioned thunderstorms. Look for the greatest precipitation in the northern grainbelt, as a Low forms just northwest of Saskatoon. A weak trough out of that low could produce some isolated thunderstorms to the south, between the Yellowhead Highway and the US border. This is the first of multiple chances for thunderstorms across the prairies this week.

Seeding is well underway now across all three provinces, and all three have begun issuing crop reports. Alberta is starting the season well, with 50.6 percent of surface soil moisture rated as good, 17 percent as excellent. The Saskatchewan crop report dates back to May 4 and shows significant delays in planting due to flooding. As of May 4, 3 percent of seeding has been completed, compared to the long-term average of 12 percent. The most recent Manitoba crop report was issued May 5 and was reported in the May 7 midweek update.

Monday

Peace Region

Sunshine, a west wind, and temperatures in the high teens – above average. The wind will gust toward 50 km/h during the day, which may impact seeding operations. Dry, exposed soil may be blown around by the brisk wind. The windy conditions are caused in part by a pressure gradient between a central Saskatchewan low and a west coast high.

Alberta

Vort Max, or vorticity maximum, is a term used all the time among meteorologists. It describes an area of maximum spin in the atmosphere, measured at 500 millibars, or about 18,000 feet off the ground. The energy caused by the rotation frequently leads to rain and thunderstorms. And, that’s what’s expected to happen Monday in a localized area in southern Alberta:

Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

Green on the map above shows where rain or thunderstorms are possible, but they will be isolated and won’t cover the entire shaded area. Blue on the map indicates that at higher elevations, the precipitation will fall in the form of snow. All across Alberta, it will be a seasonably cool day, with highs in the 16 to 19 degree range.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a low-pressure system as it moves through central Saskatchewan and into Manitoba during the day. The animated map below shows the most likely location of the showers and storms. The loop starts at midnight Monday morning, and continues for 24 hours:

Courtesy: Pivotal Weather

With this system, expect thunderstorms, localized heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Pay close attention to weather warnings, as a severe event, while unlikely, cannot be ruled out. Areas that get the rainfall can expect anywhere from 3 to 10 mm, depending on how close they are to the storm cores. Saskatchewan, with highs between 17 and 20, will be warmer than Manitoba, where temperatures in the south will be in the lower double digits. Manitoba remains much cooler than average.

Tuesday

Peace Region

It’s another uneventful weather day in an uneventful week for the Peace. As high pressure takes over Western Canada, expect plenty of sunshine, with highs near 20 from Fort St. John to Grande Prairie. It will be four or five degrees cooler toward Tumbler Ridge. The wind will be light, and there will be no weather barriers to seeding and other field work.

Alberta

Across Alberta, it will be a quiet weather day, with perhaps some cloud near Waterton. Otherwise, expect a mainly sunny sky across the province with highs in the low to mid 20s. The wind will be light, and there are no weather concerns for seeding operations.

Saskatchewan

After Monday’s active weather, Tuesday will be a calm day across Saskatchewan, with plenty of sunshine across the entire province. Due to Monday’s rain, some fields may be muddy in the morning, but should dry out by afternoon due to the abundant supply of sunshine on Tuesday. South of the Yellowhead highway, high temperatures will...

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