Prime Minister Viktor Orban says Budapest wants to isolate the conflict, while the rest of the West wants to globalize it

The Ukraine conflict is a face-off between two Slavic nations in which the rest of the world should not get involved, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said. He added that most other Western countries are doing everything they can to spread the hostilities.

In an interview with Kossuth Radio on Friday, Orban said the conflict between Kiev and Moscow “is not our war,” but rather a “Slavic fraternal war between two countries.” For this reason, he said other nations should strive to “isolate it, separate it, prevent it from spreading further.”

He acknowledged, however, that Budapest and the rest of the Western world have markedly different views on the situation, with the latter intent on globalizing the conflict and seeing it as their war.

According to Orban, this approach is mistaken as Western nations are risking severe consequences without having a clear goal.

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He attributed this difference in positions to the fact that Hungary directly borders Ukraine, while most of Kiev’s backers are quite far away from the country.

The Hungarian prime minister noted that, while “tens of thousands die,” the front lines remain stationary, and there is a “constant danger” of other nations being affected by the conflict.

Orban also suggested that it would be a mistake to admit Ukraine into the European Union before the conflict is over. He noted that Kiev and Moscow have territorial disputes, and it is therefore difficult to predict how big or small Ukraine will end up being, and how much of the population will remain when hostilities end. He said these are key parameters for distributing responsibilities and resources within the EU.

The prime minister concluded by claiming that the bloc is short of funds, and currently has to decide between supporting Ukraine or its own less-developed member states, such as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Croatia.

Earlier this month, Orban predicted that the “deterioration of the economic situation in the West will force countries to stand up for peace,” and they will urge Kiev to negotiate with Moscow.

Since the conflict broke out in February 2022, Hungary has been highly critical of Western economic sanctions on Russia, as well as the shipment of increasingly more advanced weaponry to Ukraine.

“We are one people, and together we can overcome anything,” he told residents of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson

Millions of people made a conscious choice to unite with their Fatherland a year ago, President Vladimir Putin has said in an address marking the first anniversary of Russia’s reunification with the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

The signing of agreements on September 30, 2022 incorporating the four territories into the Russian state was a “defining and truly historic event,” Putin stated in a video message, which was published early on Saturday.

“Millions of residents of Donbass and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions made their choice to be with their Fatherland,” he said.

Their reunification with Russia was a “conscious, long-awaited, hard-won and genuinely popular decision ... made collectively through referendums in full compliance with international norms,” the president added.

By going to the polls, “the people showed courage and integrity in the face of attempts to intimidate and deprive them of their right to determine their own future, their destiny, and to take away something every person values. Namely, culture, traditions, and mother tongue,” he said.

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According to Putin, all those things had been “loathed by nationalists and their Western patrons who orchestrated a coup in Kiev in 2014 and then unleashed a full-scale civil war and terror against dissenters and organized blockades, constant shelling, and punitive actions in Donbass.”

He was referring to the so-called Euromaidan uprising, which led to the overthrow of the democratically elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich in February 2014, and the conflict between the new government in Kiev and the Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk that started shortly after the coup.

Speaking about Russia’s ongoing military operation in Ukraine, the president said that “by defending our compatriots in Donbass and Novorossiya, we are defending Russia itself. Together, we are fighting for the Motherland, for our sovereignty, spiritual values, unity, and victory.”

The people of Russia fully backed the decision of the new territories, and now all regions of the country are involved in “rebuilding and building schools and hospitals, housing and roads, museums and memorial sites” in the People’s Republics of Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR), and Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, Putin said.

“We are one people, and together we can overcome anything and meet any challenge,” he continued, addressing the residents of the newly incorporated regions.

READ MORE: Moscow reveals new regions’ economic roadmaps

The results of the referendums, which took place between September 23 and 27 last year, have not been recognized by the Ukrainian authorities and their Western backers. During the votes, the number of those who supported reunification with Russia stood at 99.23% in the DPR, at 98.42% in the LPR, at 87% in Kherson Region, and at 93.11% in Zaporozhye Region.

A local blackout in Bryansk Region comes a day after a similar incident in Kursk

An electrical substation in Russia’s Bryansk Region came under attack on Saturday morning, causing a blackout in a village some 20 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border, according to local governor Aleksandr Bogomaz.

“As a result of the attack of Ukrainian terrorists in the village of Pogar, the power supply was disrupted,” Bogomaz wrote on Telegram at 1:00am local time, adding that there were no casualties and that emergency services were already working at the scene.

The official shared no further details of the incident or whether it was caused by a drone, as reported by several Russian telegram news channels which published footage purportedly showing the power facility on fire.

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On Friday, the Russian military intercepted ten drones over the neighboring Kursk Region, but according to the regional governor one of the UAVs managed to hit an electrical substation, causing a local blackout. The Defense Ministry has yet to comment on the alleged new terrorist attack against civilian infrastructure.

The Russian border regions of Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod, as well as Crimea and Moscow, have been frequently targeted by drones since Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. Russian officials have also accused Kiev of plotting acts of sabotage targeting the country’s major infrastructure sites, including nuclear power plants.

Kiev's operations in the region have become more powerful, but they have failed to lead to any real gains

The dangers in the Black Sea region escalated to new heights last week after the Ukrainian Air Force attacked the Russian city of Sevastopol on September 20 and 22. The last attack damaged our country's Black Sea Fleet headquarters.

The strikes were carried out by Ukrainian Su-24 aircraft using Franco-British Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles. Kiev said the attacks were part of "Operation Crab Trap," carried out jointly by its Air Force and Special Operations Forces. 

The Ukrainian side claimed that 34 Russian soldiers were killed during the attack, including Black Sea Fleet Commander Viktor Sokolov. However, on September 26, Sokolov appeared at a board meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defense, refuting the Ukrainian version of events. According to the official Russian report, one serviceman went missing during the strikes.

Ukraine prepared and planned the attacks well in advance, utilizing reconnaissance missions and drones against Russian air defense systems. Both official spokespeople and unofficial "sources" said that the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet or its expulsion from Crimea was the strategic goal of the strike. 

Although such goals sound overly ambitious – especially considering Ukraine’s failure to cut off the land corridor between the peninsula and mainland Russia – they feed into a further escalation of the conflict.

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The context of the conflict in the Black Sea

After Crimea rejoined Russia in 2014, Ukraine lost control of important infrastructure in the Black Sea region, which it inherited from the USSR. The Ukrainian Black Sea Fleet, Coast Guard units, and the marines were downgraded since most of their colleagues who served on the peninsula joined the Russian side. Those who remained loyal to Kiev were  generallytransferred to Nikolaev and Odessa.

Despite statements about getting Crimea back, the Ukrainian Armed Forces focused on Donbass, where an armed uprising against Kiev broke out in the spring of 2014. Having a relatively low military budget, Ukraine prioritized funding its ground forces.

Nevertheless, Kiev felt the need to compensate for the influence it lost in the crucial Black Sea and Azov Sea regions. In 2014 – utilizing what was left of Soviet military production facilities (the Artem Plant in the capital, the Motor Sich Engine Plant in Zaporozhye, and the Kharkov Aviation Factory) – it developed and produced the Neptune cruise missile. Eight years later, these rockets came to play an important role in Ukraine’s assault on the Black Sea region.

A few weeks before the start of Russia’s military campaign, Ukraine mined its section of the waters to prevent the Russian Black Sea Fleet from carrying out landing operations. The Ukrainians did a poor job, however. Many mines drifted towards other countries, and there were also incidents of civilian deaths.

Starting on February 24, 2022, the Black Sea region became one of the main directions of the Russian offensive. Moscow took control of the strategically important Snake Island located near the Danube Delta and the Kinburn Spit (which completely blocks the Southern Bug river and the city of Nikolaev). However, the Russian Army could not take full control of all infrastructure in the Black Sea region, including the Nikolaev port and shipyard, the Ochakov Naval Base, the ports of the Odessa agglomeration, and the Danube.

As a result, Ukraine retained its influence in the region and gradually gathered enough forces to retaliate. On April 14, last year, Ukraine sank the Black Sea Fleet flagship cruiser Moskva, hitting it with a Neptune. Soon afterwards, the Russian garrison left Snake Island.

Subsequently, there was a period of de-escalation in the region as a result of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was meant to prevent a global food crisis by ensuring exports of both Ukrainian and Russian grain, as well as Russian fertilizers. As part of the deal, Kiev was required not to use the Black Sea corridor and port infrastructure for military purposes, and the UN had to ensure that Russian goods would have access to international markets.

In July it came to a head. After Ukraine carried out several attacks on Crimea and Russia faced problems with exports, Moscow announced that it would no longer participate in the grain deal. Guarantees of safe navigation in the Black Sea were withdrawn and the sea’s northwestern waters declared a dangerous area. Both sides issued a warning to ships entering the other's Black Sea ports. After that, the situation in the region began escalating. 

The region’s geostrategic value 

The ports of the Odessa agglomeration became Kiev’s last suitable option, especially after it lost control over Mariupol. A significant share of imports and exports, particularly of agricultural products, goes through them. 

They could also be used for the faster and cheaper delivery of weapons by sea, as well as for the hypothetical deployment of a foreign military contingent in Ukraine. The same goes for the port infrastructure on the Ukrainian part of the Danube, which connects the country with Central Europe. 

Hydrocarbon deposits are also located between Crimea and Odessa. The infrastructure for their extraction belonged to Ukraine’s Chernomorneftegaz oil and gas company until March 2014, when Russia established control over it. After the war broke out, the drilling rigs known as the ‘Boyko Towers’ have been used for positioning electronic equipment. On September 13, 2023, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence announced that Ukraine captured the towers. 

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For Russia, control over Crimea and Sevastopol is crucial for maintaining its influence in the Black Sea. This is where the main infrastructure of the Black Sea Fleet and its command are located. Moreover, after the start of hostilities in February 2022, Crimea became an important logistics hub and ‘operational rear’ for Russian troops deployed in Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions. The importance of Crimea for the Russian Army is also evident from the fact that in 2023, the 18th Combined Arms Army was deployed from the 22nd Army Corps based in Crimea.

The buildup of Ukrainian forces in the region

Ukraine began attacking Crimea in the summer of 2022. On July 31, its forces dropped an explosive device on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The strikes, which were rare at first and intended to spark conflict in the information domain, gradually became more frequent. The range of weapons used for the attacks also grew. On October 29, Kiev launched an air and naval drone raid on Sevastopol.

After receiving cruise missiles from NATO countries, Ukraine used them in its operations. Employing tactics similar to those used by Moscow, the Ukrainians overloaded Russian air defense systems with the combined launch of cheap drones and more expensive and sophisticated cruise missiles. Kiev claimed to have destroyed several S-400 missile system complexes, but never provided evidence of damaging this particular model. 

Ukraine’s most recent ‘achievement’ was the strike on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet on September 22. This demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to hit strategically important objects in Crimea. Of course, the command of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was not so reckless as to operate inside this building, since the location was well known, but the incident was still perceived in a highly negative way by Russian society. 

Ukraine has demonstrated its willingness to use even terrorist methods to destroy Crimean infrastructure. This summer, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine admitted that his agency was involved in the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, which was carried out by placing cargo with disguised explosives in a truck. As a result of the attack, five civilians were killed, including the driver. Traffic on the bridge was restored the next day. 

The goal of the Ukrainian attacks

The goal of these attacks was most clearly expressed by former presidential aide Aleksey Arestovich: “We will keep striking until we finish [them] off, until we finish this task. Crimea is a rear base [with] five military airfields, huge ammunition and fuel warehouses, and control points. All of this should be destroyed, and the entire Black Sea Fleet should no longer be based in Crimea. Novorossiysk is an option, but we’ll get to Novorossiysk as well, when they move to Novorossiysk, we’ll get them there too.”

The Ukrainians have repeatedly stated that their goal is to occupy the Crimean Peninsula. However, their ground operation in Zaporozhye, designed to cut off the land corridor to Crimea, failed without any tactical success – the Ukrainian Army has so far only been able to capture the ruined village of Rabotino.

As a result, the huge and well-planned attacks of August and September were independent from the actions of the Ukrainian ground forces. This made them less effective, since the strikes on the fleet’s headquarters and infrastructure did not coincide with the ‘Battle for Crimea’ announced by senior Ukrainian officials. Instead of sowing panic in the Russian rear and straining the military command, the attacks came at a moment when the Ukrainian counteroffensive was about to get stuck in rain-soaked mud. 

Russia’s actions

It goes without saying that Ukraine’s strikes have not significantly reduced Russia’s potential in the region. Firstly, they have had little impact on logistics, and Russian forces continue to use Crimea as a rear for their groupings deployed along the Dnieper and in Zaporozhye Region.

Also, in order to decrease the risk of another terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, a railway route is being designed along the northern shore of the Sea of Azov (the project is not only advantageous from a military point of view, but also has significant economic potential after the end of hostilities).

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Secondly, Russia is able to inflict heavier damage on Ukrainian infrastructure in the Black Sea region. Regular raids on military facilities in Odessa and its surrounds are difficult to assess due to Ukrainian military censorship, which legally prohibits shooting and publishing videos of Russian attacks. Nevertheless, footage of exploding Ukrainian warehouses in the area may be found online. 

Thirdly, Moscow  continues to destroy Ukrainian aircraft, including Su-24s capable of launching Western cruise missiles. Russians are also on the lookout for warehouses where these missiles are stored, and still strikes Ukrainian airports.

What can we expect in the future?

Over the year and a half of the military operation, Ukraine has become more capable of acting in the Black Sea region and has gradually moved from exclusively defensive to offensive tactics. This has been possible because of foreign assistance and the transfer of weapons capable of striking the rear positions of the Russian military. 

As a result, both sides attack each other’s military infrastructure without being able to completely destroy the enemy’s forces. However, while Ukraine is concentrated only in this region, Russia’s scope of action is broader – it continues to destroy military facilities along the entire length of the front line and can exert pressure on Ukraine’s strategic rear.

Meanwhile, the victory of either side can only be ensured by means of a land operation – eventually, either the Russian flag will return to Odessa or the Ukrainian flag will fly over Sevastopol. Otherwise, the region will only face further escalation and constant threats, including terrorist attacks. 

Countries in the region will play an important role in the emerging multipolar world, the president believes

Moscow wants Latin America to be “strong, independent and successful,” and wishes to maintain and develop ties with every country in the region, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said.

He made the remarks on Friday, when he spoke during the opening ceremony of the first-ever International Parliamentary Conference ‘Russia – Latin America’ in Moscow. Russia has long shared a similar view on international affairs with many countries of the region, Putin stated.

“Latin Americans have always strived for independence, and the history of your continent is full of the most striking examples of this,” he said.

The nations of the region have already become important players in the emerging multipolar world, and are influencing the formation of a new “system of international relations based on equality, justice, respect for international law and each other’s legitimate interests,” Putin added.

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“In this new, polycentric architecture, the states of Latin America, with their enormous economic potential and human resources, and their desire to pursue a sovereign, independent foreign policy, will play one of the leading roles in the world. There is no doubt about it,” he said.

Russia is seeking to maintain and develop ties with all Latin American countries and remains committed to the region staying “strong, independent and successful” in all of its “unity and diversity,” the Russian president added.

The conference, organized by Russia’s lower chamber of parliament, the State Duma, brings together more than 200 participants, including lawmakers from Latin American and Caribbean countries. It’s set to run until Monday and will feature multiple panel and roundtable discussions on a range of international issues, including the emergence of multiple worlds and maintaining international security for all.

Aleksey Danilov says it is unclear how long the US and its allies will support Kiev

The West does not have a clear picture of what a Ukraine victory would entail, Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Aleksey Danilov lamented in a TV interview on Friday.

Danilov noted that the US and its allies have repeatedly stated that they will stand with Kiev “for as long as it takes.” However, the security chief said that the country’s Western backers have never specified that this would be until Ukraine is victorious.

“No one can clearly answer us what our victory means. They tell us: We will support you until… and then I have never heard them say the word ‘victory.’ They say, ‘Until you choose to make decisions yourself.’”

Danilov stressed that Kiev needs to know whether the West will stand by Ukraine until it wins the conflict or if its support will expire after a certain amount of time.

The security chief’s comments come after Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergey Marchenko admitted that the number of those willing to give Kiev money “is growing smaller and smaller” and that “there are many questions about how much taxpayers in those countries are willing to finance us.” 

Previously, Marchenko reported that the government’s monthly deficit is about $5 billion, with the budget receiving two-thirds of its funds from foreign loans and grants. 

Meanwhile, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby claimed this week that the Pentagon could only support Kiev for “a few weeks” if Congress failed to pass a new funding bill.

This comment came after some Republican lawmakers opposed President Joe Biden’s request for an additional $24 billion for Ukraine and have threatened a government shutdown unless funds for Kiev are dropped from the latest government funding bill.

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“If leadership insists on funding another country’s government at the expense of our own government, all blame rests with their intransigence,” said Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, one of the Republican leaders opposing the bill.

Nevertheless, the US House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress, managed to approve $300 million in new aid to Ukraine on Thursday despite over half of GOP members opposing the move.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky told The Economist that he was “sensing” weakening support from Western leaders. He warned that failing to support Ukraine was equivalent to siding with Russia.

The Ukrainian leader cautioned Western governments that they could lose elections and face trouble from outraged Ukrainian refugees that they have housed if they do not maintain their assistance to Kiev.

The decree signed by the Russian president allows Ukrainians to come into the country on the basis of expired national passports

Ukrainian citizens will now be able to enter Russia even if their national passports have expired, a new decree signed by President Vladimir Putin stipulates. Moscow and Kiev ratified a visa free travel agreement back in 1997, with Ukraine refusing to renew it and allowing it to lapse on January 1, 2023.

Moscow, however, chose to unilaterally let Ukrainian nationals cross the border without a visa.

The decree, which was approved by the Russian head of state and published on Friday, also lists other alternative forms of ID that will be treated as sufficient for entry. These include an external passport (intended for international travel), a diplomatic passport, and a special sailor or pilot ID. Children under 16 can cross into Russia with only a birth certificate.

Additionally, according to the document, “Ukrainian citizens can enter the Russian Federation from Ukrainian territory on the basis of documents … whose validity has expired.”

Last week, EU Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton told the media that the bloc had “welcomed … almost 10 million Ukrainian refugees” since last February, when Russia launched its military operation in the neighboring country.

READ MORE: Female pharmacists fleeing Ukraine – media

According to a recent report by Statista, 1.09 million people have arrived in Germany and 968,000 in Poland, making them the top destinations in the EU.

The same source, however, estimates that Russia has received the largest number of Ukrainians so far – around 1.27 million.

Meanwhile, last January, TASS, citing Russian officials, reported that more than 5.2 million Ukrainians had crossed over into the country by that time.

Ukrainian authorities along with their Czech colleagues uncovered several ‘call centers’ specializing in bank card data theft

Ukrainian police along with their Czech counterparts have apprehended several suspected scammers in a large-scale operation across Ukraine. The criminal group is believed to have set up a number of phishing ‘call centers,’ which they allegedly used to defraud dozens of Czech citizens.

According to the Ukrainian authorities, a total of 29 searches were conducted in Kiev as well as Dnepropetrovsk (the city now known as Dnepr), Kirovograd, Ternopol, Poltava, and Chernigov regions. Three ringleaders and five members of the group were detained as a result, with officials looking into the roles of more than 40 other individuals.

The suspects are believed to have sought potential victims in Czech online marketplaces, with ‘call center’ operators contacting them and luring into opening phishing links. The customers were asked to share their bank-card details to buy goods. Having gained access to the victims’ money, the suspected scammers would then allegedly withdraw it and convert it into cryptocurrency.

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The group is believed to have conned nearly 2 million Czech korunas ($87,000) out of citizens in the Central European nation, a police statement revealed.

If found guilty, the suspects could face up to 12 years behind bars in Ukraine.

In a separate case, Ukrainian authorities handed over five suspected members of a transnational criminal group to the Czech Republic on Monday, with one more individual awaiting extradition.
According to the Ukrainian police, the criminal group was dismantled in April as a result of a joint operation by Ukrainian and Czech officers. The suspected ringleader is a Ukrainian national, who had a number of Czech and at least one Belarusian citizen allegedly working for him.

The suspects are understood to have operated several ‘call centers’ in the Ukrainian city of Dnepr between March 2021 and November 2022. The alleged scam involved call center operators contacting clients of Czech banks and posing as security officers from those financial institutions. The suspected con artists would then strongly recommend that their victim transfer their money to a safe account to prevent it from being stolen. Shortly thereafter, another call center operator would call the victim, this time posing as a police officer and advising the person to follow the instructions of the “bank security officer.”

Czech and Ukrainian authorities believe that at least 665 Czech citizens have fallen victim to the scam, parting with more than 186 million Czech korunas ($8.1 million).

Prime Minister Denis Shmygal has claimed his country is uniquely deserving to join the bloc and won’t bring problems with it

Ukraine deserves complete accession to the EU and will not accept any substitute proposed by incumbent member states who envision a tiered system of candidates. Prime Minister Denis Shmygal reiterated Kiev’s position in an interview published by Politico on Thursday.

“We want to be a fully-fledged member because Ukraine today is the unique country across the world that has paid such a huge price for its will to become a European Union member,” the senior official told the outlet.

Earlier this month, a report commissioned by France and Germany recommended breaking down the EU’s expansion process into more phases to “ensure a merit-based approach and to manage potential conflicts.” A four-tiered system ranking nations from “inner circle” down to a “European Political Community” was proposed.

Eight nations and the breakaway Serbian province of Kosovo currently have active talks with the EU about possible accession. National leaders will discuss enlargement and reform plans during a summit in Granada, Spain next week.

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Shmygal emphasized that Ukraine is not aiming for a lower-tier status and anticipates full membership within two years. In explaining what sets Ukraine apart, he pointed to the significant and widespread public support for EU accession among its population.

Previously, other senior Ukrainian officials asserted that their nation should be granted membership due to their perceived role in defending the EU from potential Russian invasion. It’s worth noting, however, that Moscow has not indicated any intention to engage in armed conflict with any EU member state.

In a recent Politico interview, Shmygal provided insights ahead of a formal assessment by Brussels regarding Ukraine’s progress in implementing the required reforms as a candidate state last year. The European Commission is anticipated to make a recommendation next month regarding the commencement of formal accession talks.

The prime minister vowed that his country “would not be bringing problems” to the EU and, on the contrary, would help it tackle energy dependence, security, defense, and broader economic issues. Currently, Kiev relies on foreign aid to conduct its military campaign against Russia and pay government expenditures.

READ MORE: Top EU diplomat warns immigration could ‘dissolve’ bloc

Joseph Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, noted in an interview with The Guardian last week that Ukraine “would be the only country that would be a net beneficiary” should it be granted membership. He added, however, that Kiev’s inclusion in the bloc would also end a “sleeping siesta” period for enlargement.

People from Ukraine should not be subjected to integration programs, the head of the country’s migration service says

Ukrainians who have fled to Western countries amid the conflict with Russia shouldn’t be viewed as refugees, according to Natalia Naumenko, the head of Ukraine’s State Migration Service.

The Ukrainian authorities “don’t consider them refugees. We consider them people, who were forced to leave Ukraine,” she said on Thursday.

“Fortunately, my colleagues from migration services of other countries also support me when I ask them not to consider our citizens refugees and not to create programs for their integration in the host country,” Naumenko added.

She claimed that UN figures, which suggest that some 8 million Ukrainians have left the country since fighting began between Moscow and Kiev in February 2022, were “a bit exaggerated.”

Ukrainian NGO, the Center for Economic Strategy, estimated earlier this month that between 1.3 million and 3.3 million Ukrainian refugees may not return to their home country after the end of the conflict.

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“The non-return of Ukrainians will significantly impact the Ukrainian economy, which could lose between 2.7% and 6.9% of GDP annually,” it warned.

Most Ukrainian refugees are women and children, as men aged between 18 and 60 are barred from leaving the country due to the mobilization announced by the Ukrainian authorities after the launch of Russia’s military operation.

A demographer at the Kiev-based Ptoukha Institute for Demographic Studies, Aleksandr Gladun, told the Wall Street Journal earlier this week that it wasn’t clear whether “the women [will] come back,” or the men will “go and join their wives abroad.”

Low birth rates, aggravated by the ongoing fighting, could see Ukraine’s population dip below 30 million within the next two decades, having reached around 43 million in 2021, he said.

The UN has estimated that around 5.8 million Ukrainian refugees have been recorded in Europe, with Poland and Germany accepting the highest numbers. Citing security sources, TASS reported earlier this year that Russia had taken in more than 5.2 million Ukrainian citizens fleeing the fighting, including some 730,000 children.

READ MORE: Germany has reached immigration limit – president

German paper Die Welt reported earlier this month that the integration of Ukrainians into the German labor market has been “sluggish” compared to Poland and some other EU nations. Out of over 1 million Ukrainian refugees in the country, only 20% currently have jobs, according to the outlet.

Tony Radakin said Western expectations for Kiev’s counteroffensive should be “adjusted”

Russia’s defensive lines have proven to be more resilient than the West had initially anticipated, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the British Defense Staff has admitted, noting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could drag on for some time.

Speaking on ‘War on the Rocks,’ an American podcast, the military official stressed that the West must be “very careful of rushing to easy judgments” about Kiev’s counteroffensive and stated that expectations about what Ukraine’s forces can achieve in the near future should be “adjusted.”

Radakin pointed out that at the start of Kiev’s summer counteroffensive, it was still looking for more equipment and ammunition, the lack of which had impacted the operation. There was also the issue of incorrect assessments of Russia’s strengths. “In actuality, some of those Russian defenses have been stronger than first anticipated,” the admiral said.

Nevertheless, Radakin claimed that Kiev was “grinding through and making progress.” To that end, he insisted that Kiev’s Western backers must continue supporting Ukraine, as its ability to prevail in the conflict depended on it being able to outlast Russia.

“It’s the military that wins battles, but it's the economics and that sustainability that tends to win wars,” he said.

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When addressing the challenges surrounding the counteroffensive’s limited success, the admiral cited the current hindrances faced by Ukrainian generals. These challenges primarily included managing a diverse range of military vehicles within their forces and addressing concerns related to the insufficient training of their soldiers.

“[Kiev’s] force is not a professional soldiers’ force; it’s a citizen army,” Radakin said, noting that there's a “humility and sobering element” to the fact that it is yet unclear how to get a citizen army to fight in a way that could overcome Russian defenses.

Ukraine launched its offensive in early June but has so far failed to gain significant ground, losing many Western-supplied tanks and armored vehicles. 

This week, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that Kiev’s forces had lost over 17,000 service members and more than 2,700 pieces of military equipment in September. Earlier this month, the ministry also claimed that Kiev’s forces had suffered 66,000 casualties and lost over 7,600 pieces of heavy equipment since the start of the counteroffensive operation.

Volunteer service members are enough to fill in ranks in the Ukraine campaign, a senior military official said

The Russian military leadership has no plans to conduct mobilization as its current needs are fulfilled by career military service members, including those who volunteered to fight against Ukraine, according to a senior official.

The pledge not to draft additional troops was reiterated on Friday by Vladimir Tsimlyansky, the deputy chief of the mobilization directorate of the General Staff. He was briefing the public about a scheduled conscription campaign that kicks off next week.

“The number of people wishing to enrol in Russian military service under a contract, as well as volunteers who have decided to take part in the special military operation, is sufficient for fulfilling our tasks,” he said.

President Vladimir Putin ordered mobilization of an additional 300,000 troops in September last year. The enrolment was announced seven months into the Ukraine conflict, after Kiev rejected a peaceful resolution and pledged to continue fighting against Russia with Western help.

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Ukrainian officials have been predicting a new round of mobilization in Russia for months. Kiev’s military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov claimed in late August that Moscow was planning to enrol an additional 450,000 troops in autumn.

He added that Ukrainians “should not be afraid of it too much” because Russia supposedly has been secretly mobilizing tens of thousands each month and “nothing bad happened.”

The Russian president reported earlier this month that some 300,000 people had enrolled in the Russian army this year alone, explaining why, unlike Kiev, Moscow had no particular need for foreign fighters. The remark was in response to claims that Moscow had asked assistance from North Korea to replenish manpower, an idea that he branded “total nonsense.”

Mobilization in Ukraine has been ongoing since the start of the conflict and had some bumps recently. The country has been hit by scandals involving conscription chiefs, prompting President Vladimir Zelensky to announce in August that he was firing all regional draft heads in the country.

READ MORE: Female pharmacists fleeing Ukraine – media

The Ukrainian government has relaxed eligibility standards for recruits, declaring people with certain mental and physical conditions fit for duty. Its Defense Ministry has also ordered female medics and pharmacists to register for possible enrolment, reportedly causing an exodus of women in those professions.

Kiev has reportedly lost one-fifth of the ten Stridsvagn 122s it had received from the Nordic nation

A point-of-view online video purportedly shows Russian drone strikes on a Swedish variant of the German Leopard 2A5 main battle tank, the Stridsvagn 122. Ukraine was given ten of them and has reportedly lost at least two.

The footage shows two separate attacks on a stranded tank in the same location, both using a quadcopter kamikaze drone called the VT-40. The video was published on Thursday by a Telegram channel promoting the UAV.

Swedish media reported last week that its government had delivered ten Stridsvagn 122 tanks to the Ukrainian military, delivering on a commitment announced in February. The batch accounts for roughly 10% of the country’s tank fleet.

The “best tank in the world, according to Discovery Channel,” as Swedes like to point out, has heavier armor than the original German model, along with other features. Ukrainian crews were trained to operate them.

Russian FPV drone apparently destroying Ukraine Stridsvagn 122 tank. pic.twitter.com/XZn8T8dCCn

— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@aldin_aba) September 28, 2023

Two other videos that emerged online last Friday indicated that Ukrainian troops had abandoned at least two of the Swedish armored vehicles, exposing them to Russian drone attacks.

One of the short clips depicted the same location as the video circulating online now. The poster misidentified the tanks as Leopard 2s and reported they were hit by Lancet kamikaze drones somewhere near Svatovo, a frontline city in the Lugansk People’s Republic that has seen heavy fighting during Kiev’s summer counteroffensive.

Another abandoned 🇺🇦Leopard 2 (Strv 122) tank being hit with Lancet loitering munitions near Stelmakhivka on the Svatove direction. pic.twitter.com/qFGahSmk87

— Military Advisor (@miladvisor) September 22, 2023

Neither video showed troops near the Swedish tanks nor offered any clue as to how they were disabled. In both cases, the tanks’ reinforced hatches can be seen open, implying that the crew had evacuated.

The US and its allies provided hundreds of heavy weapons to Ukraine to bolster its push against Russia, but Kiev has largely failed to seize territory in the past four months.

Moscow has accused the West of waging a proxy war against Russia and using Ukrainians as “cannon fodder.” Kiev has lost an estimated 2,700 pieces of heavy weaponry and over 17,000 troops this month alone, the Russian Defense Ministry reported earlier this week.

Five settlements and a local hospital were left without power, authorities in the Kursk region said

Russian air defense systems engaged several hostile targets over the Kursk region on Friday morning, but one of the incoming drones managed to hit an electrical substation causing a blackout, according to governor Roman Starovoyt.

“A Ukrainian drone dropped two explosive devices on a substation,” Starovoyt wrote on Telegram at 5:00am local time, shortly after warning about “air defense systems activity in the Kursk region.”

One of the transformers caught fire as a result of the attack, causing a blackout that affected five settlements and a hospital, according to the official. There were no reports of any injuries.

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The governor asked residents to “remain calm,” adding that firefighters were sent to tackle the blaze and that power would be restored “as soon as it becomes safe.”

The Russian border regions of Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod, as well as Crimea and Moscow, have been frequently targeted by drones since Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. Russian officials have also accused Kiev of plotting acts of sabotage targeting the country’s major infrastructure sites, including nuclear power plants.

Kiev’s forces opened fire on Russian troops despite having previously agreed to a temporary ceasefire, an RT correspondent has reported

Russian and Ukrainian forces near the city of Kremennaya in Russia’s Lugansk People’s Republic managed to establish a temporary humanitarian truce, only to see it broken by the Ukrainian side, RT correspondent Murad Gazdiev reported on Wednesday.

Writing on Telegram, Gazdiev said that brigade leaders from both sides agreed to a ceasefire that would last from 9am to 7pm to allow both forces to collect the bodies of the dead that had been left in neutral ground.

Gazdiev reported that hostilities did in fact cease initially. However, Ukrainian troops then began dragging trees and logs to their trenches and fortifying their positions. Approximately 40 minutes later, as soon as Russian evacuation groups moved out, the Ukrainian forces, sitting in their fortified trenches, opened fire using howitzers and mortars.

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The results of the incident have not been disclosed, but other reports from the area on Wednesday suggested that a group of Ukrainian troops had later surrendered to Russian forces. 

War reporter Mikhail Andronik shared videos purporting to show a Ukrainian soldier coming out onto a road bearing a light cloth. That was after he contacted the Russian side using an open radio channel. Soon after, two other fighters also came out and surrendered their weapons, as well as several crates of ammunition. One of the weapons, according to the correspondent, was a Western machine gun.

Another report by retired LPR lieutenant colonel Andrey Marochko also claimed the Ukrainian military near Svatovo-Kremennaya had requested an emergency evacuation using air ambulances from the area. The military expert suggested that the actions of the Ukrainian forces indicated they were trying to evacuate a wounded high-ranking supervisor or a senior commanding officer.

The Russian Defense Ministry has yet to confirm or deny the reports. However, in its daily update on Wednesday, it stated that Kiev’s forces had lost a total of up to 55 servicemen, two armored fighting vehicles, two cars, as well as two howitzers in the Krasnoliman direction.

The State Duma could give ‘volunteers’ the same privileges as service members next month, Izvestiya newspaper reported

The lower house of the Russian parliament could pass legislation next month that would exempt ‘volunteers’ fighting in Ukraine from income tax, Izvestiya newspaper has reported. Members of the Russian military serving in the conflict zone already enjoy similar privileges.

In an article on Thursday, Izvestiya noted that the bill put forward by the ruling United Russia party aims to equalize the legal status of service members and those who have signed contracts with the Rosgvardia paramilitary units. According to the media outlet, the Russian government has already signaled its readiness to support the initiative.

If the legislation is passed, such individuals will also not be charged the fees collected for issuing passports and driver’s licenses.

One of the co-authors of the bill, Anatoly Vyborny, told the newspaper that the measure would help “strengthen the fighting spirit of the defenders of the motherland.”

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All three other parties present in the Duma confirmed to reporters that they are in favor of the legislation. Oleg Nilov from the Spravedlivaya Rossiya (Just Russia) noted, however, that he would like to see more substantial assistance provided to veterans. He said that his party had suggested equalizing their status with that of WWII veterans.

Sergey Leonov from the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) said his party would back any legislation aimed at supporting those fighting in Ukraine, while Communist Party representative Nikolay Arefiev said the tax exemption would be an effective measure to support volunteers’ families. 

Autumn rains may prevent Ukraine from using Western-supplied heavy tanks, the outlet has warned

Ukraine’s faltering counteroffensive spells serious danger for Kiev, as lack of progress on the battlefield could lead to dwindling Western support, the New York Times reported on Thursday.

The article points out that while recent months have been marked by intense fighting across the entire region, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces conducting attacks, the frontline has remained largely unchanged.

The situation has proven relatively stable despite Ukraine’s much-hyped offensive that has been underway for more than three months. Kiev’s officials have blamed well-fortified Russian defenses, extensive minefields, and delays in Western arms deliveries for the lack of progress.

A slowdown in the counteroffensive, according to the NYT, “comes with huge risks for Ukraine.”

“If it looks unlikely to recapture large areas of the country, Western support could wane, either through lack of political will or unwillingness to donate more weapons,” the report warns.

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Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in war studies at King’s College London, suggested that Russia’s strategy in Ukraine was “to let the Ukrainians run against those defenses, kill as many as possible, and destroy as much Western equipment as possible.”

On September 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Kiev had lost more than 71,000 troops since the start of the push, while Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed earlier this week that Ukraine’s casualties had amounted to more than 17,000 service members this month alone.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive may also be jeopardized by weather factors, the NYT continued, adding that heavy autumn rains could make the ground almost impassable for heavy Western-supplied tanks such as US-made M1 Abrams that started arriving in Ukraine earlier this week.

Fears of dwindling Western support for Kiev come as Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergey Marchenko admitted that while his country has secured about $42 billion in funding to help offset the budget deficit, “there are fewer and fewer of those willing to give money.”

READ MORE: Ukraine knows US tanks won’t make much difference – WSJ

Meanwhile, on Monday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the US – Kiev’s main backer – would be able to provide Ukraine with military assistance only for another “few weeks” unless US Congress approves a new funding bill.

He was referring to a request by US President Joe Biden to send another $24 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which, however, met pushback from Republicans, who have repeatedly voiced accountability concerns while rebuking the US leader for a lack of strategic vision.

Kirill Budanov says the use of armored vehicles by Ukrainian forces is minimal

Most of Kiev’s counteroffensive operation is being conducted without the use of vehicles, Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov revealed in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Thursday. 

“Unfortunately, most of our offensive is now on foot,” Budanov said, noting that the use of heavy armor is “minimal.” Budanov drew parallels to the battle for the city of Artyomovsk, also known as Bakhmut, where he said Russian forces also primarily waged war on foot. 

As noted by the WSJ, the Ukrainian military appears to no longer believe that tactics being taught by the West can work on the modern battlefield.  

Washington and its allies have been pushing Ukrainian commanders to use combined-arms maneuvers, which entail using large groups of armored vehicles and tanks to make rapid breakthroughs. However, the prevalence of modern combat drones, which can detect and destroy a target within a matter of minutes, may have made such tactics obsolete, according to military experts.  

“The days of massed armored assaults, taking many kilometers of ground at a time, like we did in 2003 in Iraq – that stuff is gone because the drones have become so effective now,” retired US Army Sergeant First Class Bradley Crawford told the outlet. 

Nevertheless, Kiev’s Western backers have repeatedly expressed frustration over the slow pace of Ukraine’s much-touted counteroffensive that was launched in early June and was expected to turn the tide of the conflict.  

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Throughout the summer, Kiev’s forces have ultimately failed to make any notable territorial gains and have suffered heavy casualties as they tried to break through Russia’s defenses consisting of vast minefields, as well as heavy artillery and swarms of drones. 

According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, the number of Ukrainian servicemen killed since the start of the counteroffensive has surpassed 83,000. It also reported that Kiev’s forces had lost more than 10,300 pieces of military equipment since June, including a number of US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, German-made Leopard tanks, and British-made Challenger tanks.  

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that such heavy casualties were the result of Kiev throwing untrained soldiers into “senseless assaults and slaughter.” He added that these “cynical actions by the West and their henchmen in Kiev are only pushing Ukraine towards self-destruction.”

Makeshift infantry fighting vehicles are reportedly so slow that one was hit with a Russian aerial bomb

Ukraine’s attempt to create a cheap-and-quick infantry fighting vehicle to compensate for losses in the fight against Russia has so far produced an unreliable, slow product that has reportedly cost some Ukrainian soldiers their lives.

The vehicle, which is called BMP-1LB, was first unveiled in June. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi reported details about the platform and its performance, obtained from a source involved in the manufacturing process. The account prompted Forbes to say on Wednesday that “the ersatz IFV has some big problems.”

According to the account, BMP-1LB is a modified MT-LB, a Soviet-designed armored tractor nicknamed Motolyga, which is normally used to tow heavy pieces of equipment and as a transporter outside of combat.

Ukrainian designers have added additional armor plating and a remote-controlled turret and modified the interior to accommodate seven to eight troops in addition to three crew members.

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The idea was to design as swiftly as possible a vehicle that can be rolled out en masse at a minimal cost, using resources available to Ukraine. The country had produced MT-LBs up until the early 2000s and presumably has hundreds in store.

The project was undermined by the poor quality of the refurbishment of the old tractors, according to the source. Workers didn’t bother to clean rust out before repainting the interior, while one vehicle had a track one segment that was too long, necessitating repair in the field.

The design flaws have also proven to be significant. The platform was never designed for the extra weight, so the overhauled engines and transmissions of BMP-1LBs often break within a run distance of 100km (62 miles), the report said.

Maneuverability suffered too. On an even road, the BMP-1LB can drive up to 50 km/h (31 mph). Difficult forest terrain reduced the speed so much that on some occasions soldiers could keep up on foot.

The sluggishness may have resulted in the destruction of one such vehicle, which was hit by a Russian aerial bomb in early June, the outlet reported, sharing a video of the piece.

The turret is problematic too. Produced somewhere outside of Ukraine, it has a single 14.5mm machine gun that is prone to jamming in a dirty environment. The module accounts for roughly half of the BMP-1LBs estimated cost of $380,000.

READ MORE: US pushing Ukraine towards ‘self-destruction’ – Moscow

Forbes suggested that the vehicle “might be better than nothing” when supplies are running low. Kiev has blamed a shortage of Western weapons for the underwhelming results of its summer counteroffensive, claiming that it had to slow down to save soldiers’ lives.

The Ukrainian army has lost more than 2,700 pieces of heavy weaponry and over 17,000 troops this month alone in its push, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reported earlier this week.

Armenia is progressing with a plan to empower the ICC on its soil, the court that seeks the arrest of Vladimir Putin

An Armenian parliamentary commission deliberated on Thursday a proposal to ratify the Rome Statute, the document which underlies the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has described the proposed move as “extremely hostile” towards Russia.

In March, the ICC issued arrest warrants for two Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, for alleged kidnappings of Ukrainian children, which Moscow rejected as ludicrous and evidence of the court’s political bias.

Moscow does not recognize the court’s authority and deems Armenia’s intention to do so problematic, Dmitry Peskov told the media.

“Armenia is a sovereign state. We certainly hope that decisions like this will not negatively impact our bilateral relations,” he said. “But these decisions are extremely hostile for us.”

Vladimir Vardanyan, the chair of the Armenian parliamentary commission, which needs to approve the proposal before it can be voted on, claimed during the Thursday session that it would not “impact in any way” Russian-Armenian relations.

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Yeghishe Kirakosyan, the government’s representative for international legal affairs, told lawmakers that making the commitment to the ICC would improve Armenian security.

“There may be nations that, for example, would take this into account when deciding on providing various defensive systems, weapons,” he told the commission.

Armenia signed the statute in 1999, but suspended its ratification in 2004, when the document was deemed incompatible with the nation’s constitution. The accession process resumed in late 2022. Yerevan intends to give the ICC retroactive power starting May 10, 2021.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan cites the failure of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a regional mutual defense bloc that includes Russia and Armenia in its ranks, to defend his country against rival Azerbaijan as a reason to ratify the Rome Statute. Yerevan maintains that its goal is to use ICC mechanisms to hold Baku and associated “war criminals” accountable.

There were deadly border clashes between the two nations in August 2022, marking a major escalation in a decades-old conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. That conflict concluded this month with Baku retaking its territory, prompting the ethnic Armenian authorities to dissolve their self-proclaimed republic.

READ MORE: ‘CIA cutouts’, big money grants and biolabs: The depth of US interference in Armenia explained

Yerevan took issue with the CSTO’s decision to pursue de-escalation, sending a monitoring mission to Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan during the 2022 crisis, as opposed to deploying troops.

Azerbaijan is one of 41 UN members who did not sign the Rome Statute before the deadline for doing so expired at the end of 2000.