MID-WEEK RECAP

Illinois has lost two consecutive OT games, with the latest example bewildering HC Brad Underwood:

Brad Underwood had some thoughts on the officiating in Illinois game against Wisconsin.

"I'm very frustrated, because it changes SO MUCH game to game. We had a guy tonight we haven't had in two years."#Illini | #CollegeBasketball pic.twitter.com/yRywwFLbEn
— Jake Bedell (@JakeBedellTV) February 11, 2026

Iowa State lost to its second team that was on the outside looking in, by falling to TCU on the road. The Cyclones have a massive win from non-conference at Purdue in a beatdown, so that helps if ISU gets into a H2H with Purdue, but the problem is Purdue has the clear body of work edge now. Thanks to the win at Nebraska, the Boilers have seven Q1 wins, four in Q1A, and all seven of those opponents are projected to be in the field. ISU has five Q1 wins, two in Q1A, and four total against the forecasted field. Pretty clear that Purdue is in a higher category at this very moment.
That leaves the cluster of Illinois, Iowa State, and Nebraska now. Illinois and Nebraska split the season series, with the latest version convincingly going to the Illini in Lincoln. If I were a voter, I’d support the Illini to take the final 2-seed despite owning five losses. Keep in mind, the tough loss to Wisconsin came without Andrej Stojakovic, and of course, they’ve played for weeks without Kylan Boswell (who may be back soon, per reports). The Cornhuskers have a worthy resume, but recent play has knocked their power numbers down to around 14th in the country and quite clearly not at the Iowa State/Illinois threat of dominance.
Vanderbilt went to Auburn and controlled the game, winning 84-76. The Commodores are a clear protected seed, but for Auburn its beginning to get worrisome. They’ve played a crazy 15 games against NCAA-level opponents (leads the nation), but they are sitting at 5-10 in those games. In addition, they have won at Ole Miss, beat South Carolina, and Oregon in Quad 3. Every other game (six of them) falls into Quad 4. It’s a concerning body of work based on the record. Tigers play both Mississippi schools, Oklahoma, and LSU down the stretch. They’ll need not to slip up there, one would think. Before any of that, a trip to Arkansas comes tomorrow.
Miami’s win over North Carolina has the Canes safe for now. On the other end, UNC’s short-lived rise following the Duke win has come crashing back to sea level. The Tar Heels now need to figure out how to navigate life for a bit without Caleb Wilson.

Iowa took a surprising loss at Maryland. The Hawkeyes had been rolling for a bit, but the jury remains out after a loss like this. It’s a resume that will ultimately be beefed or drained by its closing stretch of games: two vs. Nebraska, hosting Purdue (tomorrow) and Michigan, and a trip to Wisconsin will tell the committee a lot.
Particular bubble teams really stepped up. Virginia Tech’s 10-point win at Clemson was massive. Perhaps capitalizing on the Tigers’ return from West Coast travel, but it will look just the same at the end of the season. Missouri’s narrow win at Texas A&M is a potential shapeshifter for the Tigers’ fate - they are clearly in for now. With the Aggies dropping three in a row, they are going from SEC contenders to the danger bubble zone. Texas A&M fell into the 40’s of WAB and SOR this week, and now has to go to Vanderbilt tomorrow. New Mexico’s win at Grand Canyon really impressed me, and it falls in Quad 1. Really would like to include the Lobos, but out of room right now. Let’s see who falls this weekend. TCU (mentioned above) is creeping closer, but there is a lot of bad on that resume; more wins are needed to convince the committee they belong.
League title races were fluid once again this week. South Florida gaining full control of the American certainly spices the bracket up. The Bulls have high major talent and are a realistic threat as a 12-seed. UNC Wilmington currently has command of a very complex CAA. A league that could ultimately produce a representative from any variety of schools - it is that deep this season, with 10 teams still alive for the four double-bye slots. Austin Peay picked up another key win at Queens on Wednesday for their ASUN title hopes. Troy fell at Texas State, which allows us to welcome Appalachian State to the projected field today for the first time in 2025-26. Thursday alone had a good chunk of movement:

Bracket Notes- Thursday games:

-Tennessee State new OVC rep. Now tied w/UTM and own H2H
-Cal Poly beats UCI. Hawai'i alone in 1st of BW
-Merrimack pounds Marist, moves up to 15-seed for 1st time
-Cal Baptist now ruling the WAC
-Belmont, UNCW, Port St, UMBC, Winthrop, hold serve
— Rocco Miller (@RoccoMiller8) February 13, 2026

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

Rocco Miller, The Bracketeer

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