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By Tyler Frawley, CFA

The consumer remains central to the U.S. economy, accounting for nearly 70 percent of GDP, but forward indicators have deteriorated. University of Michigan sentiment readings have fallen to historic lows, inflation expectations have reaccelerated, and lower-to-middle-income households face pressure from higher energy cost...


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Key points The sitting president’s party has almost always lost House seats in midterm elections, and those losses have often been large. Presidential popularity has played a role. U.S. equity returns in midterm election years have been the most muted, although gains in the following year have been robust. The market has often welcomed political party gridloc...

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Change is afoot

Before we dive into the forthcoming change in leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve, there were some notable – and possibly even surprising – developments as it pertains to the monetary policy outlook.

Given that AI is all the rage, what does it have to say about the Fed’s current stance? The first chart shows a natural language model from ...


Read full story
Change is afoot

Before we dive into the forthcoming change in leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve, there were some notable—and possibly even surprising—developments as it pertains to the monetary policy outlook.

Given that AI is all the rage, what does it have to say about the Fed’s current stance? The first chart shows a natural language model from Bloo...


Read full story