Quantus Insights

Four months ago we had the Texas Senate race at Paxton 45, Talarico 43, with 11 percent of likely voters either...

Hispanic voters moved 20 to 25 points toward the GOP between 2020 and 2024, from roughly D +30 to the single digits nationally, with larger shifts in Texas, Florida and the Southwest. That is the largest one-cycle move by any major group in modern polling. Whether it holds, reverses or splits the difference is the biggest open question in the 2026 electorate.

Our October run has Democrats at 47%, Republicans at 50%, and 3% of simulations ending in a 50–49–1 chamber that Dan Osborn alone would organize. The median outcome is 50 Democratic seats, one short, with Republicans holding the gavel through the Vice President. That is a coin flip. I’m not going to dress it up as anything else.

We released our Michigan Senate poll this morning. El-Sayed 47.6, Rogers 46.5, 744 likely voters, fielded Monday...

We updated the Quantus Insights House forecast today. Democrats are at 85 percent to take the chamber, Republicans at 13, with a couple of points reserved for the possibility that the majority comes down to recounts and lawyers. Our median outcome is a Democratic majority of 229 seats to 206, a net gain of 14.

In September I wrote that the enviro...