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The outlook is gloomy.
The Treasury economic forecasts for May budgets are usually settled in April to feed into the fiscal forecasts and, critically, the borrowing program. They can be changed in the interim six weeks if anything happens. (Not too difficult with a fully balanced forecast; I was once involved in a morning rejig following Muldoon’s imposition o...
We are facing difficult challenges from the likely rise in import prices.
Many readers may find this week’s column difficult compared to the discussions they are familiar with. That is because it tries to get the analysis right rather than skipping over the difficult bits and leaving the reader with misunderstandings. So apologies for the difficulties. It’s...
In too many areas we are avoiding thinking about or preparing for oncoming changes.
About a decade ago I had a ‘Lambton Quay’ conversation with an environment policy advisor. For those who do not live in Wellington, LQ is the main shopping street which starts at Parliament buildings; it also has cafes and government offices. Wandering along it, one often bumps...