Politicalsciencenowfeed

Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Forecasting Gubernatorial Elections in an Era of Polarized and Nationalized Politics

By Gregory J. Love, University of Mississippi, Ryan E. Carlin, Georgia State University, and Matthew M. Singer, University of Connecticut

Gubernatorial electi...

Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Forecasting the US Midterm Congressional Elections Without Poll Data

By Paul F. Whiteley, University of Essex

This article develops a long-term forecasting model for the US midterm elections which does not require polling data. It uses Congressional House and Senate seats captured by t...

Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Forecasting a Democratic Resurgence? Partisan Accountability in the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

By Carlos Algara, Claremont Graduate University, Isaac Hale, Occidental College, Byengseon Bae, Independent Scholar, and Edward Headington, C...

Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Forecasting a President-Centered Midterm: Leader-Centered Personalization in the 2026 US House Elections

By Mohammad Hamza Iftikhar, Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), Pakistan

Forecasting models of US midterm elections rely on indicators such as presidential approval, economic co...

Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Forecasting 2026 Congressional Control: A Comparison of IEM and Kalshi Prediction Markets

By Thomas Gruca and Thomas A. Rietz, University of Iowa

We report Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) and Kalshi prediction market forecasts for the congressional control configuration resulting...