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The leveraged finance market is facing an “AI inflection point,” where the early promise of greater efficiency is giving way to concerns about pressures on revenues and margins. Our outlook remains relatively constructive but split between potential winners and losers, with hardware and power providers likely to benefit from datacenter buildouts while software and business se...


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Commodity markets are reemerging as a central driver of the global macro outlook after more than a decade at the periphery of asset allocation. What appears at first glance to be a cyclical rebound increasingly looks structural. Demand is strengthening across energy, industrial metals, and precious metals alike while supply remains slow to respond, creating conditions more consi...

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The post-strike scenario is thus far playing out largely as might be expected, including Iran’s retaliation, which has hit Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as it attempts to inflict a cost on the campaign while generating credible deterrence.

Markets have generally responded in an orderly manner, with most moves in line with expectations. Oil as well as gold ha...


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Big shifts are beginning to take place beneath the surface of a familiar IG credit market, with a surge in AI-related capex, a pickup in merger and acquisition activity, and a likely rise in long-duration issuance all reshaping the supply-demand balance.

Given rich valuations and asymmetric risk-return dynamics, we favor a selective, defensive, and opportunistic approa...


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