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The post Protected: NFTRH+; the inevitable band-aid brigade appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

A deflationary yield curve steepener is hinted at but not yet activated How do we know that the recent spike is a would-be deflationary yield curve steepener? We know because the two elements that the 10yr-2yr yield curve is a product of are declining. Those would be the 10 year and 2 year Treasury bond […]

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Fear, greed and bias reinforcement sell. Reality, at any given time? Not so much… As I continue to get more comfortable with Keynote software, here is the latest presentation covering some contrary ground you may be well acquainted with. But the herds are not, because well, they are herds. So… resist herding! For “best of […]

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The post Protected: NFTRH 749 appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

The inflation trades are fading and gold is ascending to its rightful place in the disinflationary macro The favored NFTRH plan is working out well as we planned the Q4 (2022) – Q1 (2023) rally back in November and as lumpy as it has been, it is intact to this day. Amid the fade in […]

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Arista Networks stock (ANET) is flying in blue sky It was an opportunity taken (by me, and any subscribers following the Trade Log who might have had interest) and opportunity missed (by any public viewers who might have had an interest). Though a bottom feeder by nature, I had noted in NFTRH that Arista Networks […]

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The post Protected: NFTRH+; another one of our stress indicators is starting to move appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

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The post Protected: NFTRH+; important macro update appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

The Empire State Manufacturing survey is bad Here is the report (PDF) from the New York Fed. Let’s just take a visual journey down the road to disinflation/deflation and economic contraction. The Empire State Manufacturing survey is in contraction. Here are the pictures showing new orders and inventories sagging. That is a bad combination. Prices […]

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The post Protected: NFTRH+; Gold and Silver (and the SGR), daily charts and macro analysis appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

The NFTRH view has been for a macro transition from inflation (past) to ‘Goldilocks’ (present) to deflation (later) Since projecting the Q4-Q1 broad market rally back in November, we have been managing a macro transition within this rally. Based on the leadership of the Semiconductor sector and Tech, it has been dubbed a “Goldilocks” (inflationary […]

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Agricultural commodities are in decline while Livestock are ramping Here on CPI day, I thought it would be interesting to look at agricultural commodities along with the livestock that consume some of them. Whatever the February CPI report has to say today, know that it is lagging, sticky stuff that are the effects of the […]

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The post Protected: NFTRH+; updating important macro indicators for the gold mining sector appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

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The post Protected: NFTRH+; USD, Gold/’Inflation’ & Goldilocks appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

The inflation cycle comes to an ignominious end with the banking sector’s theatrics Or I should say that the inflation cycle is coming to what certainly appears to be its end to a majority of casino patrons, even though we’ve been anticipating its end since Q4, 2022 and advising people not listen to the perma-touts […]

The post About that inflation cycle? Banks say “ah no, we don’t think so” appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

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The post Protected: NFTRH 748 appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.

Fed Funds Rate projections from CME Group adjusted from +.5% yesterday to +.25% today Silicon Valley Bank implodes and voila, the Fed Funds Rate projection dropped on cue. I will tell you one thing, the moderating wage reading in the February Payrolls report is okay for our main disinflationary view, but a bank imploding under […]

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The banking sector is breaking down in relation to the S&P 500 What do we have for a macro backdrop? Well, there are different interpretations. But mine is Goldilocks (comfortably and slightly disinflationary), which will transition at some point to uncomfortably disinflationary. So it makes sense that the banking sector, which normally favors inflationary spirits […]

The post Banking sector relative strength: there is none appeared first on Notes From the Rabbit Hole.