2025 was a historically disappointing year for Searchlight Pictures, without a single Best Picture nomination or even an Oscar nomination in any category at all. It was their first year without a Best Picture nominee since 2016 – and yet the year after that brought perhaps the best awards season in Searchlight history, when “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” were neck-and-neck for Best Picture in 2017.

Now nearly a decade later, Searchlight once again hopes the year after a total Best Picture shutout will bring two nominees, if not frontrunners, the very next year. Their vision was further confirmed when Searchlight’s presumed top 2026 contender, “Wild Horse Nine,” was confirmed to premiere at the Venice Film Festival before a potential Telluride stopover, and when potential second contender “Behemoth!” was confirmed as the New York Film Festival’s Centerpiece selection world premiere on October 2nd.

Back in 2017, “The Shape of Water” won the Venice Golden Lion to start a run that would end with an Oscar Best Picture win. At the same time, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” settled for Best Screenplay at Venice, to start a run that would end with Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell’s Oscar wins and near-misses for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. Now nine years later, can “Wild Horse Nine” and “Behemoth!” give Searchlight the same 1-2 punch this fall and beyond?

It’s obvious to compare “Wild Horse Nine” to “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” since they are both by Martin McDonagh. Unlike other McDonagh films like “In Bruges” and “The Banshees of Inisherin,” they both headline Americans instead of Irish actors, although “Wild Horse Nine” doesn’t center its story in America. They also each feature Rockwell in the main supporting role – though there are still questions on whether “Wild Horse Nine” has him as supporting or a co-lead – with John Malkovich, Steve Buscemi and Parker Posey in place of McDormand and Woody Harrelson as the other headliners.

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” was the first film where McDonagh became an awards season contender and frontrunner, so “Wild Horse Nine” can’t be a breakout for him in that way. But since McDonagh is still looking for his first above-the-line Oscar win, maybe “Wild Horse Nine” can be his big next step in that way, if it becomes a Best Picture, Best Director and/or Best Original Screenplay leader after Venice.

Back in the day, Searchlight turned Venice Film Festival entries into Oscar frontrunners all the time, such as “Birdman,” “The Favourite,” “Nomadland,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Poor Things” and its two 2017 hits. Yet after waiting until late in 2024 to premiere “A Complete Unknown,” and after buying “The Testament of Ann Lee” from Venice in 2025 and getting nowhere with it, Searchlight is clearly trying to go back to the good old days at Venice in more ways than one this year.

If “Wild Horse Nine” is the new “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” by default that would make “Behemoth!” the next “The Shape of Water.” But there are several ways in which that comparison doesn’t exactly work, even before knowing that “Behemoth!” is premiering in New York and not at Venice like “The Shape of Water” did.

“The Shape of Water” was a monster/romance/fantasy/period movie from Guillermo del Toro, whereas “Behemoth!” is a movie entirely about humans from Tony Gilroy. What’s more, “Behemoth!” is about a human movie composer played by Pedro Pascal, would seem to be a comedy/drama/satire instead of a Cold War monster movie, and doesn’t appear to have any special effects to speak of. In addition, “The Shape of Water” was from director del Toro, who had never before made a Best Picture nominee or been nominated for Best Director, despite “Pan’s Labyrinth” getting six nominations, three wins, and a Best Original Screenplay nomination for del Toro in 2006. By contrast, Gilroy was already a Best Picture and Best Director nominee for “Michael Clayton” back in 2007, although he hasn’t been an Oscar contender since then.

“Behemoth!” has gotten steam as a projected Best Picture nominee since its first teaser came out, and its status as the biggest world premiere at NYFF will drive expectations up that much higher. However, it is not being projected as the kind of movie that can win Best Picture, so it is like early projections for “The Shape of Water” in that way. But even if “Behemoth!” breaks out at NYFF and beyond, it might still be seen as too small-scale to win it all at the Oscars, especially against larger films like “The Odyssey,” “Dune: Part Three,” and “Digger.”

“Wild Horse Nine” also appears to be a modestly budgeted and scaled movie compared to those epics. Yet with its potentially politically charged themes of CIA agents meddling in a foreign country, with McDonagh being considered more overdue for major wins than Gilroy, and with the likes of Malkovich and Buscemi riding major “overdue” narratives of their own, it has made “Wild Horse Nine” seem like the best bet for Searchlight to win Best Picture, while “Behemoth!” is presumed on the bubble just to get nominated. But if festival season turns out far different than expected for both, things might get trickier.

Do both “Wild Horse Nine” and “Behemoth!” have what it takes to each be top 5 contenders, and threats to win Best Picture, like “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” were? Not many thought the latter duo looked like typical Best Picture winners or frontrunners in summer 2017 until they shot out of the gate in Venice, so maybe the perceptions of “Wild Horse Nine” and “Behemoth!” can shoot up in the same way this fall too.

However, the Searchlight that turned “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing...

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