With the war in Iran starting on February 28th, container shipping to the Middle East came to a near standstill within just a few days. According to Linerlytica, approximately 132 container ships carrying around 450,000 TEUs are currently trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz. This represents roughly 1.4% of the global container fleet. While this percentage may initially appear small, the consequences are far broader, particularly if the conflict continues for weeks, or potentially months.

Several structural pressure points quickly emerge from this disruption:

1. Network disruption beyond the headline number

The 1.4% of immobilized capacity is part of vessel loops totaling roughly 3.4 million TEU, meaning the operational disturbance affects nearly 10% of the global fleet through broken service strings and disrupted rotations.

2. A region that acts as a major global relay hub

The Persian Gulf region handles approximately 650,000 TEU of weekly container traffic. Ports such as Jebel Ali – handling close to 300,000 TEU per week – serve as critical hubs linking Asia, Europe, the Indian Subcontinent, and Africa. When these nodes stall, the ripple effect spreads quickly across multiple trade lanes.

3. Cargo displacement and equipment imbalance

With regional operations largely halted, cargo already en route must either remain on vessels waiting offshore or be discharged at alternative ports. Containers discharged outside their intended markets create equipment dislocation, leaving empty containers in the wrong regions and driving repositioning costs and operational inefficiencies.

4. Pressure on already constrained global hubs

A large share of Middle East cargo is routed through major transshipment centers such as Singapore, Shanghai, Antwerp, and Tangier Med. Many of these terminals are already operating at 85–90% yard utilization, leaving minimal flexibility to absorb sudden cargo diversions. When utilization reaches these levels, even modest disruptions can quickly translate into berth delays, yard congestion, and cascading schedule slippage.

5. Possible rerouting away from the Red Sea corridor

Some carriers had cautiously resumed limited Suez / Red Sea transits in recent months. The renewed instability will likely force vessels back onto Cape of Good Hope routings, adding significant sailing time and absorbing additional vessel capacity.

6. Implications for U.S. government cargo flows

For U.S. exporters, Maersk’s MECL service, which connects the United States with Tangier Med and the Middle East, operates key U.S.-flag vessels. These ships are often used for government-related cargo, and it would not be surprising to see higher U.S. government volumes allocated to these services during the crisis.

What should shippers expect?

In many ways, this disruption resembles the patterns the industry has experienced repeatedly since the Covid era.

Shippers should anticipate port omissions, declining schedule reliability, cargo rollovers, and mounting congestion. Delays will not remain confined to the Middle East; the knock-on effects will likely spread to ports that initially appear unaffected as vessel schedules fall out of sync.

Freight markets will also react accordingly. The duration of the disruption will largely determine the magnitude of rate movements. While trade lanes such as U.S.–Latin America or U.S.–Asia via Panama may see limited direct exposure, most other global trades are likely to feel the pressure.

Several early developments are already visible:

1. Immediate rate escalation in the Middle East trade

Freight levels to the region have already climbed from roughly $1,000 to around $3,000 per container, while carriers have begun introducing contingency charges. For example, MSC has announced an “end-of-voyage” diversion policy with an $800 surcharge per container.

2. Rising bunker costs

With the Strait of Hormuz handling roughly 20% of global oil shipments, any prolonged disruption could push energy prices higher, translating into increased bunker surcharges across shipping markets.

3. Congestion-driven cost escalation

As delays accumulate across multiple trades, operating costs for carriers will rise. Early signals already suggest rate increases for U.S.–Europe and Mediterranean trades beginning April 1st, with potential adjustments ranging from 25% to as much as 75%, depending on how long the conflict persists.

4. Longer sailing routes tightening effective capacity

If vessels are forced to bypass Suez and sail via the Cape of Good Hope, the additional transit time effectively absorbs global vessel capacity, tightening supply and supporting higher freight levels.

The key variable: duration

Ultimately, the most critical factor will be how long the disruption lasts.

According to the U.S. administration, operations could continue for at least another three to four weeks, while some analysts believe the conflict could extend for several months. Even a one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be sufficient to significantly amplify the effects described above, including fuel price pressure, escalating congestion, capacity dislocation, and higher transport costs.

At the same time, such a timeframe remains too short for carriers to implement structural changes to their global service networks. Instead, the industry is likely to face a period of operational turbulence where vessels, cargo, and equipment struggle to regain equilibrium.

If the disruption persists, global supply chains may soon find themselves navigating another perfect storm – one capable of reshaping freight markets and trade flows across much of the world.

The post The War in the Middle East: Expected Short-Term and Long-Term Effects on Container Shipping appeared first on More Than Shipping.

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