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Making smalltalk

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Windmill Capital Investor Letter – February 2026 Edition

February 2026 was a month of intense volatility, where initial gains from the US-India trade deal were erased by a massive 21% YTD slump in the IT sector fueled by “AI panic.” While domestic GDP data surprised on the upside at 7.8% with a new base year, global sentiment was rattled by the outbreak of major combat operations in Iran. Ultimately, the Nifty 50 ended flat as resi...


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The IPO Alpha Illusion: Is India’s $22 Billion Surge Worth the Drawdown?
1. Introduction: The 2025 IPO Gold Rush

The Indian equity market is currently navigating a period of extraordinary exuberance. In 2025, we witnessed what many are calling an “IPO Renaissance,” a fever pitch of activity where over 100 companies tapped the public markets to raise a staggering $22 billion. For the retail investor, the headlines are intoxicati...


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AI Panic vs Enterprise Reality: What’s Really Happening in Indian IT?

Since late January, tech and IT stocks have faced strong selling pressure amid concerns about AI disruption. Software and SaaS companies worldwide were affected as investors grew concerned that advanced AI tools could threaten traditional software revenue streams.

By January 27th, the Nifty IT index had fallen about 20% in the past month. Major IT stocks such as Inf...


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Expert View: Global Tensions, Oil, and the Markets

Let’s face it. Global headlines can make anyone nervous. A war flares up, oil prices spike, a pandemic breaks out, or a big election shakes things up, and suddenly panic takes over your investments. These uncertainties affect stock markets as investors rush to safe havens.

But history shows something important: not all sectors respond the same way to geopolitical sho...


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AI, Exports, Microcaps: Newly Launched Portfolios on smallcase

A lot can change in markets in a matter of weeks. Headlines flip, sectors rotate, and the stocks that worked last quarter can quickly take a backseat.

That’s exactly where model portfolios can help. smallcase has introduced a fresh set of portfolios over the last month. Curated by SEBI-registered investment experts, these newly-launched portfolios span from q...


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