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Title: Mainly macro
I have structed this as a two-part post, where the second part is about one of the two winners of this year’s Nobel prize for economics. Both parts are directly connected, but I’ve split them because the second part is more of interest to those who know some economics.
In the weeks surrounding the UK budget you will hear a great deal about the link between the UK budget deficit and interest rates on UK government debt. [1] Most discussion will be predicated on a simple idea: the way to get interest rates on government debt down is to run smaller budget deficits. There is a bit of truth ...
The Prime Minister’s conference speech was a week ago, but there is still plenty of confusion about how it should be interpreted. Indeed that confusion may be partly shared by Burnham himself. Here is what I think it all means.
Don’t shoot the messager
The Treasury Select Committee (TSC) has just
As you are almost certainly aware, the government is having to pay much more in interest on its debt than it used to do. Here is a chart based on the last OBR forecast, and the likelihood is that their next forecast will revise these numbers upwards. An increase worth 2% of GDP may not sound big, but it is nearly as much ...