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My original major in undergrad was music. I knew just enough about writing songs on guitar to understand artists, and just enough about marketing and business to understand record labels. I sought to make a career at the intersection.
Writing music had always tantalized me.
Everything a song could need sat right there on the fretboard: every possible note...
Summary: The weight of the evidence says the pain trade remains higher, but there are growing cracks and mounting evidence (RoC in yields, diverging internals, weakening breadth) suggesting we will likely see a small 3-5% correction first.
FOMC this week with market pricing in 90% odds of a 25bps hike. At this point, it’d be bearish for the market ...
Welcome to Episode 39 of Vol Street Journal™!
My first full week back from vacation did not disappoint. Rates are on the move and equity vol attempted to breakout, yet bears still have their work cut out for them.
In this week’s episode, I evaluate deteriorating signals from both market models alongside an attempt by VIX to move from a compression regime ...
Summary: The weight of the evidence still says the pain trade remains higher. But we’re still in in a period of weak seasonality and have some big data prints this week which could move things, in one direction or another. Breadth continues to weaken and SPX 6-month realized correlation is at a level hit only twice in the last 25 years. Implied and realized ...
This week I evaluate whether the broad-based compression across equity and volatility markets has pushed realized and implied volatility to unsustainable levels. I also review recovering market health models, a noteworthy shift in the dynamic between single-stock volatility and implied correlation, the Treasury market’s response following Jackson Hole, and a divergence in co...