This week I examine the accelerating downside move in equities as major indices break out of long-standing compression regimes. I focus on the shifting character of the volatility market and why it is no longer responding to “good news” headlines with the same ease as it once did. That’s not all, though. I also discuss:

Summary: Stocks down, bonds down, gold down…plenty of headline risk and no clean setups — best move right now is hold cash and go fishing until the tape gives us something to work with.

We’re getting closer to conditional bottom indicators triggering, but there’s still more work needed. Key word: conditional. The tape and internals still n...

I’m on the road and short on time so no big preamble this week. But, once again, markets threw a lot at us last week so there was plenty to cover:

Two weeks ago, I published “Iran in the Crosshairs: An Intelligence Assessment” — a conversation with Mr. X, a former officer from one of the three-letter intelligence agencies whose focus was Iran. His ...

Summary: The weight of evidence favors more downside near-term. Bulls need to reclaim key levels — they haven’t. MO Liquidity Gauge hit its lowest reading since early ’23 and is trending in the wrong direction — bad omen for forward 3-month equity returns. Sentiment and positioning nowhere near a full washout. Retail buying and margin levels near highs. Not ...