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Hello and welcome to Episode 22 of Vol Street Journal!
This week’s episode examines the structural shift in volatility as the VIX is once again a teenager and the health of the VIX futures term structure continues to improve. I look at the breakdown of the VIX complex and why the relationship between index volatility and individual stock volatility is at a cros...
Summary: We nailed the market bottom in risk assets two weeks ago. We’ve upped our risk slightly — but the base case hasn’t changed. We’re in a sideways chop-and-vol environment for the next six months or so. Falling TL Score, absent breadth thrusts, poor ...
This week’s episode analyzes why the massive volatility crush following recent de-escalation may be running out of gas and why this matters for equities. I examine the technical state of “undervixing” and why current market structures suggest limited further downside for implied volatility unless individual stock volatility takes a nosedive. I also explore:
The colla...Summary: Trend Fragility triggered a conditional buy signal, falling to 19%. The Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear spread just logged its largest 7-week drop since COVID — a historically reliable contrarian marker. Both suggest a short-to-intermediate bottom is in. Despite this, we never saw true capitulation. And our Liquidity gauge cratered to 0% last week...
Hello, and welcome to Episode 20 of Vol Street Journal!
This week, I look at what might be the first real cracks in the “war trade” regime. Despite the ongoing tension in Iran and a big jump in oil late in the week, the data suggests the market’s structural plumbing is actually beginning to stabilize.
In this episode, I cover: