Macro Ops: Unparalleled Investing Research

Summary: A likely ceasefire (for real this time) is juicing risk assets. Short-term indicators point to the path of least resistance being higher — for now. But intermediate and longer-term signals are flashing elevated fragility and a high probability of a cyclical top within the next 12 months. Warsh’s first FOMC this week should give us a read on how will...

This week’s episode explores the evolution of the volatility market throughout the equity drawdown between June 5th and June 10th. It evaluates the role the VIX futures curve played in absorbing the sell-off and stabilizing the broader market, which set the stage for the late-week recovery. Topics discussed:

Summary: Big momentum/megacap flush. If you need a cause, point to the strong jobs report and the subsequent yield spike through a key technical level. But that’s like asking which grain of sand started the avalanche. The instability had been building for weeks — BofA sell signal, crowded momo chasing — and Friday was the release valve. The more interesting ...

This week’s episode analyzes the significant shifts in the volatility market following Friday’s widespread equity sell-off, tracking how a multi-week compression regime ended in a rapid volatility expansion. I break down what I saw early in Thursday and Friday’s sessions that spoke to two very different situations and what this may mean heading into Monday.

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Summary: Momentum continues to favor trend continuation in the major indices. The intermediate-term BofA Bull/Bear indicator has an active sell signal, but our shorter-term Trend Fragility measure sits at 69% — neutral, and consistent with at least several more weeks of upside runway. The Trifecta Lens Score has recovered from last week’s -3 reading to -2, a...