The excellent Steven Blitz at TSLombard. My own view is that the Fed has done enough. All it needs to do now is let the credit crunch take its toll before any major rescue. The decision to hike 25BP or not on Wednesday is not an easy one, and the flow of events suggests not

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Australia faces the prospect of wall-to-wall Labor governments across the mainland, with the Perrottet Coalition Government falling further behind in late polling from Roy Morgan Research. While both parties are neck-and-neck on primary vote (34% each): The ALP is polling at 53.5% (up 1% point since late February) on a two-party preferred basis, ahead of

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Either Albo’s cowards either have no idea what they are doing or they are liars: Defence Minister Richard Marles says Australia’s fleet of nuclear-powered submarines will help deter a foreign adversary from launching a shipping blockade which could cut off the country’s trading routes from the rest of the world. What balderdash. How will eight

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The 2023 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey has been released and, once again, it ranks Australia as having one of the most expensive housing markets in the world. This year’s report assesses 94 major markets (metropolitan areas) in eight nations for the third quarter of 2022. The nations assessed are: Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Ireland,

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By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA: Key Points: The March RBA Board Minutes contain little new information for market participants –the April Board meeting is ‘live’ and members will consider the case to leave policy on hold. Recent communication from the RBA strongly hints that the Boardwould like to pause in their

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Late last year, Labor backbencher Julian Hill warned that Australia’s international education system had become a “ponzi scheme” because it was enticing non-genuine students with easy work rights and permanent residency. “Uncapped work rights is being misused by agents in many parts of the world who are flogging our precious student visa as some kind

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This is not yet threatening in the sense of triggering out-of-cycle mortgage rate move changes. We’d need to see levels nearer 100bps. But it is on the move: That said, it does come at a bad time as banks refi the TFF freebie in markets: JPM has more on the state of hybrids which is

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Financial conditions have tightened meaningfully, although Pavlov’s stocks are trying to undo it again: US regional banks are very big in CRE and their delta is huge: Capex is sliding alarmingly:   Manufacturing is getting worse: Services are the last man standing: But an SME credit crunch should take care of that: Looks like a

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As we know, Australia’s population grew by nearly 500,000 in 2022 (a record high) on the back of nearly 400,000 net overseas migration (also a record high): Monthly visa data to February also shows that net temporary visa arrivals (excluding visitors) has soared driven by record international student arrivals: This record immigration (population growth) has

The post Lying Albo rubber stamps “5.4 million temporary and migration visas” appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Pantheon with the note. Global economy slip, sliding away. Korean working-day exports plunged 23.4% y/y in the first 20 days of March, worsening from a 15.6% drop in the full month of February. This is a sign of continued weakness in global demand, as banking crises add to market worries.  March is likely to be

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Michael Hartnett at BofA with his latest fundie survey. In short, another frustrating bear market rally on deck. Bottom line: investor sentiment close to levels of pessimism seen at lows of past 20 years; positioning/policy panic says SPX3.8k floor holds, fade rally run to>4.1-4.2k. FMS on Macro: net 51% expect weaker global growth; while 84%

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DXY was soft last night and EUR firm: AUD fell: Gold sagged and oil popped: Dirt too: But miners fell: EM stocks firmed: With junk: As Treasuries were murdered and the curve killed: Stocks look like they want to break out: As KRE finally caught a bid: Deutsche discusses why DXY (and AUD) are behaving

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February’s Statement of Monetary Policy included the below chart plotting the rise in mortgage rates across key developed nations since central banks began lifting interest rates: As you can see, before March’s 0.25% rate hike, Australian mortgage holders had experienced nearly 200 basis points of tightening, which is more than other English-speaking nations. This is

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Global Macro / Markets / Investing: FDIC on High Alert: The Largest Outflows of Deposits in US History. Fed’ QT Backfires, Creating A Liquidity Crisis. – The Macrolist Amazon to lay off 9,000 more workers after earlier cuts – CNBC Amazon deepens tech-sector gloom with another 9,000 layoffs – Reuters Credit Suisse bondholders in uproar

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  AUD/USD   EUR/USD   USD/JPY   DXY Gold BTC   ASX 200   FTSE 100              

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The Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting on March 7 highlight that unlike recent meetings when several policy options were considered the March meeting only considered the case for 25 basis point increase – the resulting decision. However the Minutes note that “Members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the following

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The Australian Institute with some funny analysis of the “gas shortage”. Once again the gas industry is crying wolf and telling us we need more gas to prevent shortages. But if you read beyond the scare quotes today’s report from Australia’s Energy Market Operator report shows we already have more than enough gas. The latest

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The 10 consecutive interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are a double-edged sword for first home buyers. On the one hand, borrowing capacity has shrunk by around one-third, which has made it far more difficult for first home buyers to purchase a home. On the other, the circa 9% decline in

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The federal government will seek to negotiate a deal with Senate crossbenchers to secure the passage of its bill to establish the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF). The government requires the support of the Greens and at least two crossbenchers to pass the bill, given that the Coalition intends to vote against it.

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But, but, but they are safe they said. The yield is fantastic they said. They’ll never be converted they said. Mwahaha. Charlie McEliggott at Nomura The complete write-down of Credit Suisse AT1’s / CoCo’s in light of the “restructuring” into UBS was the real plot-twist yesterday, particularly as equity holders actually received a small compensation,

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