The new edition of the “Curve” truckload forecast, which was issued this week by Charlotte, N.C.-based full truckload brokerage services provider RXO, highlighted that spot truckload rates increased annually in the fourth quarter, while also growing sequentially, for the first time in four quarters. As for 2026, the report stated spot truckload rates are expected to see both annual and sequential gains, driven by a tightening of carrier capacity in line to shipper demand.

The “Curve” was initially released by Coyote Logistics in 2018, with Coyote subsequently acquired by UPS in August 2015, and then sold to RXO in September 2024. The Curve is a proprietary forecasting model that helps shippers and carriers position themselves for success regardless of market conditions. And it measures three concurrent cycles-seasonal demand, annual procurement and more elusive market capacity–to help supply chain professionals identify recurring patterns that can lead to better informed supply chain and logistics decisions.

The report’s primary observations included:

spot rates rose 5.2% annually in the fourth quarter, topping the 1.8% annual gain seen in the third quarter;
while freight volumes remain somewhat muted, continued attrition in carrier capacity, combined with some late peak season volatility and winter storms, is causing disruption; and
while spot rates have been increasing, carriers still remain under immense cost pressure, and capacity continues to leave the market, creating what RXO called a fragile balance of supply and demand

In an interview with LM, Corey Klujsza, VP of Pricing and Procurement Strategy, at RXO, explained that one of the largest takeaways of the report is that its findings point to a divergence in the marketplace for rate volatility in what is still considered a soft demand environment.

“I think as shippers are going through this and forecasting and budgeting for next year, they most likely—depending on what industry you're in—there isn't really a picture out there right now that says that demand is ready to take off,” he said. “And this is because demand is the catalyst to a change in rate volatility in the market.”

To that end, Klujsza explained that for it can be difficult for a shipper predicting, or forecasting, that 2026 volumes will be close to flat annually, whereas carrier partners are indicating that things, in fact, are quite different than compared to a year ago. Which leads to the question of how do the shipper and carrier work together to make sure things are moving in the right direction.

That is what Klujsza said is they key driver, especially when comparing this cycle to previous ones, like the pandemic, which saw the demand and shift for goods consumption as easily explainable on an annual basis, in terms of why this rate volatility is starting to look different.

“You can even go back to previous cycles for goods consumption changing, or the dynamics of good, goods consumption changing and kind of pinpoint that to say, ‘OK, I've got a catalyst here on why,’” he said. “And I think right now we're kind of still in the middle innings, and you could start to see some restocking. Inventory levels are a little bit lower, you know, they were for 2025. December was a little bit of different behavior for inventory levels. So, you could start to say, ‘is there some restocking that's driving some behavior and is there a little bit of change in consumer behavior?’ and also manufacturing orders a little bit. But I think that's the one kind of key piece here, where there's this disconnect around forecasted volumes and rate volatility overall, which again, gives us a good idea of what we're saying around some structural changes to the supply side.”

Addressing the nearly three-fold sequential jump in spot rates, from 1.8% in the third quarter to 5.2% in the fourth quarter, Klujsza said that it helps to look at some of the collective behavior that happened in 2025, in the form of what he described as capacity-constrained events, given things like typical seasonality and demand surges and also supply shocks such as DOT’s Road Check Week.

Some supply, he said, is going to sit on the sidelines, adding that there were signs of outperformance against the last three years during some constrained events.

“The reality is that we just kind of shot back down to the baseline, and the market recovered very quickly,” he said. “For Peak Season demand, there was not some outperformance that was atypical to the last couple of years. Anytime there is an increase in demand, you get in a capacity-constrained event—and the last 30 days between Thanksgiving and the New Year are what I could consider as a capacity-constrained event. We outperformed quite a bit from a rate volatility standpoint…with a slight surge in demand enough to throw things out of balance. We started to see some different behavior in September, with annual rates starting to tick higher and then again saw outperformance in October and November. But December was the real catalyst for when spot rates kind of surged to get to a 5.2% annual gain.”

In its first quarter forecast, the “Curve” explained that volatility may moderate somewhat later in the quarter, amid a shifting market, adding that it is expected to remain in “inflationary territory,” with the first quarter ending up higher than the fourth quarter.

It also pointed to a continued increase in carrier exits driven by the enforcement of new government rules or an increase in freight demand driving the market higher into inflation [higher rates]—as well as some reasons for optimism such as recent industrial production data and also government stimulus actions.

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