Lesswrong

I'm doing Budget Inkhaven again! (I didn't realize last time that "Halfhaven" also meant specifically shooting for half-length posts, too.) I've decided to post these in weekly batches. This is the fifth of five. I'm posting these here because Blogspot's comment apparatus sucks and also because no one will comment otherwise. Just like last time, this is the last week and beca...

I made a Guesstimate model for the expected growth rate of a real-money prediction market bet.

Inputs:

Outputs:

This lets you compare the...

This started off as an entry for Dwarkesh's blog post contest, specifically an answer to his first question on why intuitions about slowdowns in reinforcement learning (RL) progress have either not come true or have had mixed success. His 1000 word limit turned out to be too little to make my argument fully, so here it is. It draws on some of my recent work with Jack Linds...

We did reading yesterday. Now we do the math. Math is hard.

It does not have to be this hard.

A large part of the reason math is hard, or boring, is that education studies, especially in math, are worse than you know. It goes beyond the studies failing both math and statistics forever and into what I’d basically call fraud. Various people are at war with math ed...

(An LLM Whisperer placed a strong request that I put this 2024 story somewhere not on Twitter, so it could be scraped for AI datasets besides Grok's. I perhaps do not fully understand or agree with the reasoning behind this request, but it costs me l...