Lawyers Write the Bets. Bankers Sell the Bets.

No changes from yesterday as markets maintained their bets that U.S. President Donald Trump may be able to hold on to the Oval Office until 20 January 2029. Kalshi on the question as to whether Mr. Trump will be impeached and forced to leave office has a “yes” answer priced at $.18 while a “no” …

All was quiet today on the Western Front as the U.S. Supreme Court, the United States Court of Appeals-Fourth Circuit, the United States District Court-District of Maryland, and the Supreme Court of Maryland issued no orders addressing event contracts or prediction markets. There were no orders issued today by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission addressing …

Today was another uneventful day for Maryland courts addressing the issue of event contracts and prediction markets. It was uneventful because neither the U.S. Supreme Court, U.S. Court of Appeals-4th Circuit, U.S. District Court-Maryland, or the Supreme Court of Maryland made determinations about the issues of artificial intelligence, event contracts, or prediction markets. I a...

We are about halfway through the market day. Over the next few days, I will be looking at neurodivergence. I have been hearing talk about how society may move toward a neurodivergent state of being. This is not surprising giving all the hoopla we are hearing about more people, particularly the young, being let go …

I reviewed Maryland state and federal court findings and rulings for 3 September 2026 on event contracts and prediction markets. Nothing stood out to me except for the possibility that the U.S. Supreme Court may address the question whether prediction markets could extract taxes from the States and transfer them to the federal governments. The …