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Title: LARS P. SYLL | Non-ergodic, realist and relevant economics
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The future is inherently uncertain, particularly when it comes to forecasting and implementing economic policy. No amount of statistical analysis, econometrics, decision theory or game theory can fully overcome this fundamental reality. According to Keynes, we live in a world permeated by unmeasurable uncertainty — not quantifiable stochastic risk — which often forces us to [...
Ed Leamer transformed economists’ understanding of empirical evidence with his landmark 1988 paper, Let’s Take the Con Out of Econometrics. In it, he challenged the profession’s fixation on ‘statistical significance’, describing much empirical research as “measuring with a rubber ruler.” Leamer’s central claim was that complex econometric models depend heavily on hid...
Central banks wield near-unlimited power over monetary policy, a policy which largely governs inflation, employment, and economic stability. This power ought to be subject to greater democratic oversight to ensure it aligns with the interests of us, the citizens. Over time, central banks have developed a sort of ‘policy bias’ where inflation control is prioritised […]
