The B.C. Conservative Party released a fully costed platform on Sunday afternoon, projecting that under a Tory government, the deficit will fall from $13.7 billion this year to $10.8 billion by 2029, aided by the party’s forecast of spectacular 3.2 per cent economic growth.

This assumes 2.5 per cent growth this year, 2.8 per cent next year, and 3.2 per cent in 2029 — growth levels far beyond most current economic forecasts.

Ross Hickey, an associate professor of economics and management at UBC Okanagan, says this type of growth is unlikely. He gave a “cautiously optimistic” forecast of one per cent GDP growth per year for the next three years.

The Bank of Canada projects national GDP growth at 0.7 per cent this year, 1.8 per cent next year, and 1.8 per cent the year after that.

The Royal Bank of Canada projects B.C.’s economy to grow 0.8 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent next year.

Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson says his party will achieve these higher levels by “supercharging” the economy.

“We are predicting roughly one per cent more optimism in this province than the NDP,” Doerkson said Monday. “And frankly, I think it’s completely achievable.”

But Doerkson fails to explain how some of his promises, such as ending Clean BC or reducing permitting times, will create the growth surge he promises. Hickey says words like “supercharge the economy” don’t say much, either.

“There is a lot of rhetoric about what’s going to happen, that’s going to lead to growth, but it’s not a plan for how we’re going to get more growth,” he said.

This type of growth would make B.C. a leader among advanced economies, which the International Monetary Fund projects will grow 2.1 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent next year, on average.

Hickey says that as an export economy, B.C.’s growth rate depends on the global economy.

“When things are going great for the world economy, B.C. tends to do very well,” he said. “When things are going poorly for the world economy, we tend to have a hard time.”

B.C. NDP candidate Adrian Dix, currently the energy minister and formerly the health minister, challenged the Conservative Party’s math, asserting the full costing plan would result in spending cuts.

“The document is packed with shell games, catastrophic errors, inflated growth projections, and of course, deep health-care cuts hidden in plain sight,” he said.

Other promises

The Conservative Party promises to reduce income taxes by $1,000 per year, cut contribution taxes and charges, drop the PST on some business expenses, and build a new Massey bridge, scrapping the tunnel plans, among other pledges.

Doerkson says unlocking business confidence will pay for this by filling the province’s coffers with new tax revenue.

“I’ve talked to so many industries that are just waiting for a change in government to invest in this province,” he said. “In fact, we sat around a table the other day, and I saw and recognized that there was $1.5 billion sitting at that table from three different possible industries that are ready to commit, but they’re not ready to commit under this government.”

Beyond this remark, which he did not expand on, Doerkson gave few details about how his government would achieve the necessary growth.

The NDP picked apart the plan, arguing in a series of news releases and statements that proposed Conservative tax pledges would reduce revenues by $4.3 billion and extra spending promises would mean surging deficits or budget cuts.

“I looked at Mr. Doerkson in the debate, and I asked him, because the math made no sense, how do you spend $5 billion, create no new revenue and not cut services for people?” NDP Leader David Eby said at a Monday morning rally in Vancouver.

Dix points out that the B.C. Conservative costing includes potential health-care cuts via the contingency fund.

This $5-billion pot of money pays for extra health-care expenses such as unexpected surgeries and caseload pressures, along with wildfire-fighting costs and other emergency spending.

It also pays for wage increases when government workers renegotiate union contracts.

The Conservative platform reduces this (the party calls it a “slush fund”) by $1 billion this year, and another $1 billion next year.

“They’re promising a $2-billion cut to one of the key ways the government funds health-care costs throughout the year and ensures that surgeries continue, clinics are open, and we have the doctors and nurses we need here,” Dix said.

Hickey, the economist from UBC Okanagan, doesn’t think the NDP or the B.C. Green Party’s platform promises are much better. He said it is “hard to compare garbage.”

The Green Party promises a wealth tax, saying it wants to follow on a proposal made in California. Hickey said that will cost more money than it makes, as rich people leave.

And he points out that the NDP hasn’t delivered on many previous promises, such as $10-per-day universal child care, while still driving the deficit to record levels.

Langley Advance Times

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