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Experienced investors know that it is a fool’s errand to bet on trend reversals in the short run. Even the academically identified short-term reversal effect has stopped working twenty years ago. But href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...
Today, the UK government will present its budget for the coming fiscal year, while the Office for Budget Responsibility will present its ‘scoring’ of the government spending plans. I am writing this while we are still in rumour land, but when you read this, much of what will be announced today will likely have been leaked in The Times of London over the weekend. And predictab...
It’s been a while since my last piece for Reuters due to me travelling on business, etc. But here is my latest piece where I stick my head out and ‘predict’ the Fed will cut interest rates far more than markets expect. the result: A sugar rush economy in 2026.
Fed may generate sugar rush in 2026LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve’s stance has...
Professional reports from equity analysts are a curious thing. On the one hand, they are very structured to ensure compliance and a fair and non-misleading representation of facts and forecasts. On the other hand, every equity analyst I know does things a little bit differently. Thanks to large language models, we can now examine in granular detail what analysts pay attention...
In October 2023, the EU introduced its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It requires EU companies that import high-carbon products like aluminium or cement from outside the EU to measure the emissions caused by these products abroad. Similarly, non-EU countries that export to the EU have to document the emissions of their products. Starting in 2026, the EU will then ...
