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A look at: 1. The performance of the UFC in 2024 (and that of its component parts), 2. Whether it achieved its objectives (of securing ANC votes and not fragmenting the opposition) and, 3. To try and establish some parameters for its prospects in 2026.
Did Unite for Change capture ANC voters in 2024?By: Gareth van O...
Herman Mashaba says he believes ASA will win half the wards in Soweto outright. This analysis is designed to see what that would take in real terms, by isolating those wards that comprise Soweto, and comparing the results there between the 2016 and 2021 local elections, before determining what that all means for ASA’s potential.
Can ASA win h...Election 2026/7 Resource: Heat Map | TSH | FF+ Support
Explanation:
These are a set of what is commonly referred to as “Heat Maps”. The more technical name is Choropleth Maps. They are designed to use a colour scale, to demonstrate the intensity of one particular indicator – in this case: party support p...
This is the second in a two part series. Here I will outline the most plausible scenarios for the DA to obtain 50% in Johannesburg, using the method and tools set out in Part 1.
How many votes the DA needs for 50% in JHB [Part II]By: Gareth van Onselen
This is the first in a two part series, that sets out the methodological ground work for Part II. Here I will establish the numbers and method used to generate plausible 50% scenarios for the DA in Johannesburg. In Part II, I will focus on the outcomes of this process.
How many votes the DA needs for 50% in JHB [Part I] ...