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Heisenberg Report title: Heisenberg Report

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It’s inflation week in the US, where the BLS is expected to tell American households that consumer prices as measured by the broad, all-items gauge fell slightly in June from the prior month. Consensus expects a marginal MoM decline for headline CPI, primarily attributable to relief on the energy gauge,

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The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Again. A month on from Donald Trump’s declaration that the waterway was fully open to commercial vessels (“Let the oil flow!“), traffic was all but halted. Although some tankers continued to brave transit over the weekend along a route hugging the Omani coast, they

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Here’s your regular reminder: We’re not in Kansas anymore. Once every two or three months, I revisit the narrative that says The Great Moderation’s over, the post-World War II global order’s dead and that there’s no way back. Unfortunately, I see little in the way of evidence to suggest that

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It hasn’t always been a smooth ride. In places, this particular rollercoaster was downright harrowing. But if all’s well that ends well, I suppose we should thank Donald Trump. I’m sure he’d agree. Without even asking what we’re thanking him for. If 2026’s gains hold for US equities, Trump will

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This week began with Donald Trump ringing the opening bells of both the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. Sort of. Flanked by small children, some of whom were visibly confused, Trump rang a golden replica chime placed atop the Resolute Desk. A group of adults assembled to indulge

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