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In early June, I explained that the stock markets were giving a misleading impression of strength. The rise in U.S. indices was driven by an ever-smaller number of mega-cap tech stocks, while sectors directly linked to the real economy — energy, materials, infrastructure, and mining — continued to be largely neglected. I saw this less as a sign of robust economic growth than as ...

The yield on the 30-year French government bond exceeded 4.7% on July 16, breaking a record that had stood since mid-October 2008 — at the height of the subprime crisis, one month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. On July 22, the 10-year bond reached 4.06%, a level not seen since the end of the Great Financial Crisis. We are certainly facing a new crisis, with the resumpti...

For several trading sessions now, the U.S. bond market has been sending a signal that stands in stark contrast to the prevailing narrative. While the consensus continues to attribute the rise in yields to a U.S. economy that is more resilient than expected, the reality appears far more concerning. It is not growth that is currently driving up sovereign yields, but rather a combi...

This week, we'll look at a couple of pretty straightforward charts of Gold and Silver that represent lines in the sand for the secular bull market. Starting with Gold, we see precisely why it is so difficult to ride a big bull market to its completion. On the one hand, there appears to be a large potential Head & Shoulders topping pattern coming together that some analysts ...

For several weeks now, financial markets have gradually come to believe that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is now a thing of the past. Every reassuring statement from the White House is immediately interpreted as proof that maritime traffic is returning to normal. Algorithms are selling oil, short positions are strengthening, and the consensus now holds that the worst is b...