Wars fought by powerful states often produce the harshest consequences for those who have the least influence over them. Africa’s experience with the unfolding Iran conflict is a stark reminder of that reality. The continent’s economies, security arrangements, and fragile humanitarian systems are deeply entangled with global energy markets and Middle Eastern geopolitics. As the war escalates, it is ordinary Africans who risk bearing its heaviest burdens, not the political architects of the conflict.

Energy shock that hits the poor first

One of the most immediate effects of the war has been the disruption of global energy supplies. The conflict escalated dramatically after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026, prompting retaliatory actions and effectively shutting down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the world’s most important oil routes. About 20 percent of global oil supply passes through the strait, and its disruption has pushed prices sharply upward.

For African economies, many of which rely heavily on imported fuel, this shock has been severe. Rising oil prices quickly translate into higher transport costs, increased food prices, and broader inflation. Analysts warn that surging energy costs could destabilise currencies and deepen the cost-of-living crisis across multiple African countries.

In Uganda and other East African states, where large segments of the population already struggle to afford basic necessities, fuel price spikes threaten livelihoods and food security. Transport costs affect everything from public taxis to the delivery of farm produce to markets. When fuel becomes more expensive, the entire economy feels the ripple effects. For many households living near or below the poverty line, even small increases in food and transport costs can mean choosing between meals, school fees, or healthcare.

The Red Sea corridor connecting the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean is another crucial flashpoint. Disruptions here could affect trade routes linking Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. In response to the war and related security risks, shipping companies are already considering longer and more expensive routes around southern Africa. While this may reduce immediate security risks for ships, it raises transportation costs worldwide, again feeding into inflation and economic strain for import-dependent countries. For African economies struggling to recover from pandemic shocks and debt crises, this is yet another external blow.

Inflation as a human rights issue

Inflation is often treated as a purely economic phenomenon. However, as explained by the United Nations, it is a profound human rights issue. When the price of fuel rises, the price of food follows. Fertilisers, agricultural transport, and processing all become more expensive. For African countries already facing high levels of food insecurity such as Sudan, Somalia, and parts of the Sahel, this can have devastating consequences.

The war’s economic shock also risks triggering a broader global slowdown. Economists warn that sustained disruptions to energy supply and shipping could push the global economy toward recession, further reducing demand for African exports and shrinking government revenues. Reduced public revenue often leads governments to cut spending on health, education, and social protection, the very services that protect human dignity. The result is a silent erosion of economic and social rights.

Africa under pressure

Beyond economics, the war threatens to deepen insecurity in the already volatile Horn of Africa. The region sits strategically along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which routes are central to global trade and military logistics. Experts warn that the ongoing war could spill into this fragile region through proxy dynamics, maritime insecurity, or geopolitical competition among Middle Eastern powers.

The potential involvement of regional actors and armed groups could inflame existing conflicts in Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. For instance, analysts fear that militant groups or

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