Welcome back, Dwight Howard. That’s right, after the Lakers scooped up a former Lakers sharpshooter and another former Lakers 3-and-D wing and champion, Rob Pelinka and crew kept that vibe going by bringing back Dwight as a free agent from the 76ers:

I’m not going to spend a lot of time discussing Dwight’s game as we should all be very familiar with that by now. Last season in Philly backing up Joel Embiid featured pretty much the exact type of play (and to the same level) that Dwight showed for the Lakers in their 2019-20 season that ended with a title. So, expect the same rim running, defensive minded, rebound chasing, lob catching big man who left the Lakers a year ago.

That type of player should be very useful, too. While a big like Gasol — who is still under contract for next season, by the way — offers an element of perimeter spacing and passing, the Lakers sorely missed the physicality, shot blocking, and vertical spacing that a player of Dwight’s type brings. Having him back in the fold, particularly in lineups that feature one of LeBron or Russ as a P&R partner or as the recipient of dump off passes should help offensively and as a defensive anchor to protect the rim and help generate more transition chances.

So, welcome back Dwight. It’s great to have you back in the fold.

The post Lakers to Bring Back Dwight Howard in Free Agency appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

After reportedly agreeing to a free agent contract Trevor Ariza, the Lakers moved fairly quickly to add another former Laker when they agree to terms with shooting guard Wayne Ellington.

If Ariza is the prototypical 3-and-D player, Ellington is much more of a 3-and-more 3’s type of guy. Ellington shot 42.2% on six attempts from behind the arc for the Pistons last season and is a career 38.2% shooter from distance. He’s someone who can get hot from the arc and can hit 3’s in a variety of ways, not just as a standstill guy who will only be able to spot up. Some of you probably remember his early season game vs. the Lakers as an example of how quickly he can get it going and what that looks like:

The thing that stands out to me about those clips is that it features a pet action that will surely come in handy for the Lakers: the guard to big screen that flows into a 3-pointer. In the same way that Ellington set those screens for Blake Griffin and then popped into open space to get off his jumper, I expect him to run similar actions with LeBron and even Westbrook.

That ability to screen and then flare into open space, set your feet, then pivot into squaring your shoulders for shot isn’t easy, but it’s something that Ellington can do pretty well. Add that to the more conventional 3’s he’s sure to get when playing next to any combination of Russ, LeBron, and AD and it’s fair to expect Ellington to feast on some of the highest quality shot attempts he’s had in his career.

Of course, like Ariza, Ellington is only available for for the salary the Lakers will pay him because of the holes and flaws in his game. Ellington is not a good defensive player and will be targeted by teams, particularly in the playoffs. He will compete on that end of the floor, but at only 6’4″ and around 200 pounds, he doesn’t have great size and can be taken advantage of on switches and by bigger wings. Further, against shiftier or explosive ball handlers, he can be beaten at the point of attack in ways that compromise your entire team defense.

He’s also not a ball handler or a shot creator for his teammates, so his offensive utility is pretty much limited to his ability to hit shots. If his shot isn’t falling, he’ll have some gravity to occupy defenders, but, as the saying goes, “it is a make or miss league” and for Ellington to be a positive contributor, he’ll have to hover at around 40% from deep on good volume.

That said, he’s more than capable of doing that. Whether the Lakers will have enough helpful defensive players to hide him or whether he proves more competitive defensively in the right matchups is another story entirely. But, if those things do happen, the Lakers could end up getting tremendous value out of Ellington this season. Time will tell, but I’m fairly excited about getting him in the fold to fill a role as a bench shooter.

The post Lakers to Sign Wayne Ellington in Free Agency appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

After agreeing to a trade for Russell Westbrook on draft day, the Lakers entered free agency with a slew of open roster and rotation spots that needed filling. And while free agency started with a whir that saw the Lakers sitting things out (their limited spending power had a lot to do with it), within a few hours, we got our first piece of news. The Lakers were signing Trevor Ariza, most recently of the Miami Heat:

Lakers fans are, of course, very familiar with Ariza after he won a title with the team over a decade ago when the Kobe/Pau led team beat the Orlando Magic back in 2009. A year later, in a contract spat that saw then GM Mitch Kupchak play hard ball and draw a line in the sand with a starting salary starting at the mid-level exception, Ariza left for the Rockets and the Lakers signed Ron Artest in his spot. Lakers fans have missed Ariza ever since, even while loving the toughness Ron brought in helping the team beat the Celtics for the championship.

Again, though, that was over a decade ago. And, since then, Ariza has played for many a team, essentially touring the league as a 3-and-D wing who was either chasing another chance at a title or collecting a big paycheck (or both). It hasn’t really worked out for our guy, though, with his best shot at another ring falling just short as a member of the Harden/Chris Paul Rockets who couldn’t get past the juggernaut Warriors.

So now, Ariza is back, an older, less athletic, player than the one who flanked Kobe all those years ago. Much more of a combo forward now than a pure SF, Ariza can defend the wing against more perimeter bound SF’s and PF’s, but is no longer the guy you can put on shiftier SG’s or PG’s and ask him to get a stop. He’s more stout and stronger now, but gone is the blazing quickness and ranginess that he leveraged so well the last time he donned a Lakers uni.

With his added strength, he can switch more and can hold up some when taken down into the post, but it’s not something you want him doing a lot nor something you’d consider a true strength of his. You’d much rather have him making his standard rotations and using his combination of length and smarts to stay in front of his man and play fundamental defense with a level of toughness and attention to detail you expect from a veteran player.

On the other side of the ball, Ariza is almost only a spot up option now, and almost totally reliant on the 3-ball as a scorer. Nearly five of his eight field goal attempts for the Heat came from behind the arc and his FT rate was the lowest of his non-Houston years in the NBA. Said another way, Ariza isn’t someone who can fill the lane for you in transition or attack closeouts all that well anymore. He’s mostly just going to take open 3’s, hit them at about a league average rate, and move the ball if he’s not open.

In the big picture, then, this is a perfectly reasonable signing for what is, presumably, a minimum deal. Ariza can be a bench combo forward who can play next to any combination of the Lakers 3-stars and fit in seamlessly. He can defend the wing or stretch forward option that LeBron doesn’t, can play a stretch PF role next to AD when LeBron sits, and can eat on kickout passes or swing-swing 3’s on Russ drives, Bron/AD or Russ/AD P&R’s, or out of Bron/AD post ups.

Do I wish he was a little younger? Yes. Do I wish he had more juice in his legs? Yes. Do I wish he was a more consistent shooter or had even more defensive versatility than he does at this stage of his career? Yes, yes. Thing is, if he was any of those things, he’d likely not be available for the minimum and we’d not be having this conversation in the first place. So, the Lakers got a viable role player who can play a couple of shifts a night or split a rotation spot with another combo forward as the Lakers continue to shop in the free agent bargain bin.

Is bringing back Trevor Ariza some world shattering move? It’s not, no. But as a solid contributor who also offers some nostalgia while being someone who has clear big game experience and success in deep playoff runs, I’ll take it. Welcome back, Trevor. Lakers fans missed you.

The post Lakers to Sign Trevor Ariza in Free Agency appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

Russell Westbrook will join LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the Lakers next season. The 3rd star player the team has coveted since trading for Davis two summers ago is no longer just a hope or a dream, it will be a reality. Westbrook will return to his native Los Angeles from the nation’s capital in exchange for the #22 pick in Thursday’s NBA draft, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, and Montrezl Harrell (who earlier in the day opted-in to his 2021-22 contract, making him trade eligible).

The implications of this move require much examination and scrutiny.Westbrook is not just far from a perfect player, he’s someone whose flaws in both skillset and, at times, approach can be crippling to his own team. Over the last several years his decline as a shooter from the field and the foul line have made him a less efficient scorer who can struggle to create good looks against compacted defenses. Over that same period he’s also dealt with several leg injuries, limiting his effectiveness and availability for long stretches of multiple seasons. He can also be one of the more stubborn players in the league, someone whose confidence (and, at times, arrogance and hubris) gets him into too many “games within the game” that tempt him into his worst tendencies and where his competitiveness clouds his judgment and decision making.

Additionally, and maybe more damaging, his game’s general weaknesses have been further amplified under the more tailored game plans of the playoffs. Russ’ lack of an outside shot and reliance on transition are used against him, most notably by Frank Vogel and the Lakers in their run to the title just a season ago. Vogel deployed AD onto Russ, using his star big man as a heat seeking missile who was free to roam and help off Westbrook and put out fires all over the court. Russ, who had recently returned from a quad injury, was not able to adjust and that was that. The Lakers won the series in 5 games for a lot of reasons, but few were more important than their ability to capitalize on all that Westbrook was not and the things he could not do.

With all that I’ve written above, then, you might find it weird for me to say that I’m excited about this trade. You see, for me, while I think it’s very important to understand what a player is not and what he cannot do, I find it more important and useful to focus on what he is and what he can do. I think that’s particularly true when speaking about a player as talented and as accomplished as Westbrook.

Russ, for all his flaws, remains one of the more dynamic offensive players in the league. His combination of physical tools, forcefulness when leveraging those tools, attack mentality, general relentlessness, skill level as a passer, and his ability to get to and finish at the rim allow him to thrive in the center of the action in any game he plays. Understand, Russ not only led the league in assists, he was 7th in the NBA in rebounds. He averaged a triple-double for the 4th time in 5 seasons and in his final 20 games of the regular season he bumped his averages up to 23.6 points (on 45% shooting), 13.6 rebounds, and 13.9 assists, earning real consideration for the All-NBA team in the process. There’s a credibility that comes from getting shit done that is unquestionable when simply examining his raw production — efficiency be damned.

Let’s zero in the Lakers here, though. Because for all the arguments to be made about what Russ is or isn’t, how much he helps vs. hurts, the success or failures of this deal will be determined by his fit next to LeBron and AD.

On the positive side, Russ’ presence will allow LeBron to carry less of a burden as a primary ball handler and lead initiator offensively. Russ can and will capably organize the team and get them into their sets on that end. He can create shots for LeBron both in 2-man game actions (P&R’s, handoffs, etc) and via drive and kicks where LeBron is stationed weakside in the corner or wing as a spot up guy. Getting someone who can ably make LeBron’s life easier via individual playmaking and shot creation will be welcomed and is something the team wanted (and succeeded with at times) with Dennis. Well, with Russ, I expect to see even more success in this specific aspect of the game.

Second, Russ is still a dynamite transition player and his ability to turn a defensive rebound into an open court chance is rivaled only by Giannis and LeBron in the entire NBA. This point cannot be overstated. The Lakers want to run and they want to create quick and easy shots either in direct transition or via early offense in less scripted offensive possessions. Russ helps this effort tremendously and allows Bron to leverage his own athleticism when filling the lane more often, instead of by always operating in the middle of the break. Russ will also allow AD to run the lane more freely and get out earlier on the break because of (Russ’) defensive rebounding prowess. Getting AD and Bron more transition chances and doing so while they have to perform less of a lift sounds good to me.

Third, and this is most important, I truly believe that Russ’ attack based game and dynamic playmaking ability is going to help optimize AD in ways that serve as an accelerant for his individual production. Russ has never played with a P&R partner as dynamic as Davis and in the lineups where Bron rests, the Lakers should be able to punish bench units by spamming Russ/AD P&R’s that lead to a boatload of shots in the paint. I fully expect Russ/AD to become one of the best P&R tandems in the league, with AD rolling more often for easy baskets and by cleaning up on the offensive glass, but also getting much cleaner jumpers on his pop-outs because of the pressure Russ puts on the rim off the dribble. Related, I also expect this action to be able to create good looks for all the other players on the court, simply because this action can be so dynamic. We don’t yet know who a lot of these players will be, but I can tell you they’re very likely to be open when taking their shots.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not all going to be puppies and rainbows. As I wrote above, Russ’ limitations are real and when those are pushed to the forefront things can and will get dicey. I expect spacing to be an issue that will need to be conquered nightly, possession after possession — especially in lineups where AD is playing next to another big. Russ’ up and down nature defensively will need to shift more towards engaged and active, rather than the watching and resting that has happened too often when he’s carried a much heavier offensive burden. Russ’ off-ball work as a cutter and screener will also need to go up several levels from where it’s been, particularly since his struggles as a shooter are going to lead to defenses ignoring him whenever they can show more attention to Bron and AD. Those guys can reward those efforts, but he needs to help them by being an active teammate when he doesn’t have the ball.

To think any of these changes and shifts to Russ’ game will come easy would be silly. Reality is they may not come at all. And if you’re unwaveringly down on this deal, my hunch is that it’s rooted in that very real possibility. And, if that’s your position, I get it. I really do.

For me, while I’m not ignoring those things and think they will matter, what also matters is the Lakers getting back to the simple formula that powered their run to the title in the 19-20 season and, to a certain extent, just powered the Bucks to their title: being the bigger, more physical team. Russ, for all his flaws, is a move back in that direction and not a subtle one. Because, again, there’s really no player quite like Russ in the entire league and when you add him to LeBron and AD (and how he can elevate AD in particular), the Lakers now have as physically imposing and dominant trio as any you’ll find in the league. And their collective skill level ain’t that bad either, even if there are some deficiencies there to overcome.

Whether it all works out, remains to be seen. But it’s one of the more fascinating talent plays any top level team has made in recent history. And I can’t wait to see how it all goes.

The post Lakers to Acquire Russell Westbrook in Trade with Wizards appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

For various reasons – some very personal, others less so – Pau Gasol has been front and center in my mind for the past couple of years.

The whole thing started almost two years ago, when my wife and I relocated, from New York to Barcelona, Spain. As an L.A. native, I couldn’t help but refer to the move as “the reverse Gasol”.

A pleasant surprise on arrival (that, in hindsight, isn’t surprising at all) was the social value of Lakers fandom. That’s all Pau. Magic and Kobe may have gotten that ball rolling over the years, but it’s the deep, heartfelt love for and pride in Pau (and Marc) that keeps it going. I’m eternally grateful to them for the opportunity to co-opt that while settling in to a new life.

Three months after our arrival, Kobe and Gianna Bryant were among eight casualties in a tragic helicopter crash. That Pau was a really good dude had never been much of a secret. However, the way in which he mourned with a devastated public, while extending every bit of love and support he had to Vanessa and the girls suggested that even his biggest fans had underestimated the measure of the man.

In a year-plus since, following his release from the Spurs, a three-game stint with the Bucks, ankle and foot injuries, and a gameless run in Portland, Pau’s NBA career quietly came to an end. Sadly, COVID protocols deprived him of the opportunity to enjoy a proper Staples Center sendoff. 

On the plus side, he returned to Barcelona, and teamed with fellow ex-NBAers Nikola Miroti? and Nick Calathes, and Rod Higgins’ son, Cory, to lead Barça to 13-3 record, and victory in the Liga ACB Finals over, of course, Real Madrid. The league title, Pau’s third in Spain and Barcelona’s nineteenth, capped off a run in which, despite age (now 40) and having not played meaningful ball for about two years, Pau rivaled the league’s playoff per-minute efficiency records set by early-90s Arvydas Sabonis and Walter Berry, and 2007 Marc Gasol.

So, yeah, I’ve had Pau on the brain.

Given all of that, it’s tough to resist looking forward to the day when #16 is raised to the rafters, and consider Pau’s enduring place among Lakers legends.

A Lineup of Legends

I’m not interested in constructing a straw man here. In fact, I’m fully prepared to be (and hope that I am) wrong. However, I’ve recently gotten a troubling sense that, for some, Pau’s place in Laker history is up for debate, that he’s more Michael Cooper, Robert Horry, A.C. Green or Lamar Odom than James Worthy and Wilt Chamberlain.

You probably thinking it now. Worthy and Wilt? Are you sure??

Discussing Laker legends – even within the hive – can be a fraught exercise. For the most part, though, we can at least agree on some tiers.

Your top three are Magic, Kobe and Jerry West. Icons, statistical marvels and, the Logo’s consulting career aside, Laker lifers, central to the first eleven L.A. titles. Then there’s a trio of legendary bigs: Kareem, Shaq and George Mikan, along with Elgin Baylor. 

By Win Shares, next up are Vern Mikkelsen (83.4) and Worthy (81.2), six- and seven-time (respectively) All-Stars, with multiple All-NBA nods, and (respectively), four and three titles.

I’m hardly breaking new ground here, but it’s always worth taking breath and basking in what a positively astounding top nine that is.

All this, and we’re only just getting to Wilt. As a Laker, The Big Dipper averaged “just” (roughly) 18 and 19, with a 20 PER and tallied nearly 64 Win Shares in 339 regular season games over five seasons. Of course, he teamed up with West and Gail Goodrich to deliver the Lakers’ first Los Angeles title, as part of the then-winningest team in NBA history. In five Game 7s as a Laker – three of them victories – Wilt averaged 23 points (on 63% shooting) and a silly 26.3 rebounds. 

After that, it’s that cavalcade of supporting stars on title teams – Byron Scott, A.C., Odom, Coop, Jamaal Wilkes, Derek Fisher – and Gail Goodrich, a Hall of Famer who spent two prime seasons (and five of his fourteen in the NBA) not with the Lakers.

If I may digress for a moment…

With all due respect to Coop and Robert Horry and their contributions to the greatest eras in Lakers history, that they’re the subjects of chatter about possible Hall of Fame bids, while Byron Scott – he of 65.8 Win Shares (10^th most as a Laker) and three rings – was not only never an All-Star, but is barely mentioned as a vital part of his own era…

If I ever wind up going full Joker, look here for the origin story.

I mean, dude ended his career with just 5 fewer Win Shares than Isiah Thomas, and 2 fewer than Earl Monroe. In ‘87-’88, he – not Magic, not Worthy, not Kareem – was the leading scorer (21.7 per, on 59% True Shooting) for the first repeat title team in 19 years, while averaging 4.1 rebounds and assists each, almost two steals… C’mon!

Sorry, I’m spiraling. Seriously, though, Byron Scott. Okay, let’s right this ship.

And Pau?

Ask most fans where Pau Gasol slots in, and the probable consensus is that he’s somewhere between Wilt and Scott/Goodrich/A.C., probably closer to the latter. This, frankly, is ludicrous.

Maybe it’s the sense that Pau wasn’t actually in Forum Blue and Gold for all that long, despite his playing 103 more games (90 regular season, 13 playoff) as a Laker than Wilt, and (WILDY different eras, I know) ten more than Mikan.

Maybe it’s because, in December 2011, he was actually traded, until “basketball reasons” dictated he wasn’t. Of the top nine guys above, only Shaq and Kareem ever played for an NBA team other than the Lakers. Of those nine, only Shaq didn’t finish his career as a Laker, and his trade was frankly more a salvage operation than an earnest attempt to improve the team. 

Maybe it’s that his professionalism, which compelled him to soldier on – in the wake of the trade that wasn’t, and again while being nudged to the margins during the ill-fated Steve Nash/Dwight Howard experiment – without making a public stink, are somehow seen as weakness.

Maybe it’s that his final postseasons as a Laker consisted of second round defeats to the Mavs and Thunder in which the Lakers lost eight of nine games, and a sweep at the hands of the Spurs, during which Pau averaged just 13 and 9, and made less than 44% of his shots. 

Maybe it’s that his last season in L.A. was the monumentally depressing 2013-14 campaign, in which post-Achilles Kobe suited up just six times before once again getting hurt, and Pau was left to shoulder the offensive burden with Nick Young and Jodie Meeks.

Try to make all of those cases if you’d like. You’re only ever going to wind up missing the mark.

Consider: Seventeen players have racked up at least 50 Win Shares as Lakers (again… DAMN). Twelve have topped Pau’s total of 59.2. Only six, however – Mikan, Shaq, Magic, West, Wilt and Kareem – have bettered his mark of .185 per 48 minutes. The gap between Pau and Elgin Baylor in tenth (with .148) is more than double the one between Pau and Kareem (.203) in sixth, which is itself comparable to the gap Pau and the two dudes behind him on the list: Mikkelsen and, yup, Kobe, both at .170.

In 429 regular season games six-plus seasons as a Laker, Pau averaged 17.7 points, 9.9 boards, 3.5 assists and about a block and a half per game. He racked up three All-Star and All-NBA nods and – hold on to your hats – led the Lakers in Win Shares in each of his first four full seasons in L.A. He finished top-ten leaguewide each time, topping out at second in 2010-11, when his career best mark of 14.7 trailed only LeBron.

Pau’s Lakers PER of 21.4 ranks seventh, behind those of Shaq, Mikan, Magic, Kareem, West, Kobe and Baylor. This, incredibly, is also his seventeen-year career mark, which is tied for 20th all-time among players with 1,000+ games played. 

The numbers are great. The numbers also only tell a partial story. What they omit is the part about how – and I do not say this lightly – Pau Gasol saved the Lakers as we know them. 

El Salvador de España

The Lakers entered the 2007-08 season as 150-to-1 longshots in the West, having spent the preceding summer listening to Kobe demand a trade and tell any outlet that was willing to listen that he’d played his last game as a Laker. Sure, by the time Pau arrived in February 2008, the Lakers were flying high, with a 30-16 record. It was also completely unsustainable.

I love the hell out of that team too – it’s not often Laker fans get a to root for a true “plucky upstart” – but Kobe, Odom, 20-year-old Andrew Bynum and a supporting cast of Fisher, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, Vladimir Radmanovi?, Kwame Brown, Jordan Farmar, Ronny Turiaf and Sasha Vuja?i? was not consistently going to contend. A single better-than-expected campaign was probably not to going to quench Kobe’s competitive thirst, and turning Bynum into 34-year-old Jason Kidd to appease Kobe would have been (one man’s opinion) catastrophic.

What then?

Does Kobe’s stance soften? Does he stick around for some version of the final chapters that make him the most resonant athlete with a single city and fan base in American sports history? Maybe. Of course, in the continued absence of truly meaningful basketball…

Thankfully, we never had to find out.

Pau arrived in L.A. an in-his-prime (he was 27) star, fresh off a six-year stint in Memphis where he provided the Grizzlies’ first taste of anything resembling success. Though he’d been an undisputed primary go-to guy, Pau transitioned, seamlessly, into a completely different, incredibly challenging but equally vital role. 

He was the perfect running mate for Kobe: an obscene arsenal of skills with the basketball IQ to match. Also – and this can’t be stressed enough – he had the innate unselfishness and emotional maturity to cede the spotlight, while earning the genuine respect one of the most demanding superstars in history.

Of course, this stuff really only wound up mattering because of the new banners.

The 2007-08 Lakers almost completed their Cinderella run. However, despite unexpectedly winning the Western Conference, the way in which they lost those Finals – a blown 20-point lead in Game 4 at home and total destruction in Game 6 in Boston – and the way in which Pau was overwhelmed by the Celtics’ front line were doubly disheartening.

That summer, smart (moderately intelligent, even) money would have been on Pau wearing the “soft Euro” label, well, forever. However, that narrative didn’t even survive a full lap around the calendar. Pau came back better than ever, improving both his postseason scoring and rebounding, averaging 19 points (on 61% True Shooting), 11 rebounds (3.5 offensive), three assists, two blocks and .222 Win Shares/48 (basically Magic’s career mark) in 46 games over two titles runs.

Most important, though, was that he found the very thing that was lacking in ’08, when it was needed most.

The Biggest Stage

This seems like a decent point to revisit Wilt. That Game 7 stuff above? Well, it, too, only tells a partial story. The two most important Game 7s of Wilt’s Lakers tenure both came in the Finals – in 1969 against Bill Russell’s Celtics, and in 1970 against Willis Reed’s Knicks. Despite making nearly 70% of his shots and grabbing 51 rebounds, Wilt scored 39 total points and was conspicuously upstaged by his counterparts. Twice the Lakers lost. And twice the first L.A. title was deferred.

In 2010, meanwhile, the Lakers, now reigning champs, again met the Celtics in the Finals. The Lakers lost three of the first five, and returned home, looking down the barrel of a second loss in three years to Boston. In Game 6, they got 17 and 13, with nine assists and three blocks from Pau, which, combined with 26 and 11 rebounds from Kobe powered the Lakers to a blowout win, and forced a Game 7.

That decisive game, played on June 17, 2010, belonged to Pau. He played over 42 minutes, scored 19, grabbed 18 rebounds, and was the only Laker starter with a positive +/-. That’s great. What echoes forever, though, is his fourth quarter exorcism of the Celtics front line. In that final period, he scored nine points, grabbed six rebounds (three of them offensive), handed out two assists, denied Paul Pierce at the rim with under two minutes to go, and then muscled in that layup to put the Lakers up six with 90 seconds left.

It’s a perfect moment.
It’s a moment worthy of its author, whose rightful place is among not only the greatest Lakers and greatest big men of all time, but simply the greatest players in the history of the sport.

The post Pau Gasol’s Place in the Rafters appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

Use whatever language you want here — “backs against the wall”, “win or go home”, “do or die game” — they all capture the tenor and meaning of tonight’s game 6 between the Lakers and the Suns. For the first time in the 2 seasons that the Lakers have had LeBron and AD, the Lakers […]

The post Lakers vs. Suns: Game 6 Preview appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

The playoffs, at the most basic level, are about problem solving. How can you decipher and counter what the other team is trying to do faster and more effectively than what they are. The number of problems you can present for the opponent, then, is nearly as key as your response to whatever they’re throwing at you. The more advantages you have the better, and the fewer the other team can muster against you will typically translate to a win (in a game, and a series). It’s what makes this time of the year great. Game plans, adjustments, and counters. Refine, rinse, repeat. Keep the other team guessing, make them flail just one or two extra times and you can win a crucial game. Heading into game 5, the Lakers are certainly in a tricky and difficult spot vs. the Suns, but all is not lost…not by a long shot.

Yes, the Lakers have an uphill climb. They’re on the road in front of a massive and lively Phoenix crowd. Chris Paul looks as healthy as he has since the 2nd quarter of game 1. Meanwhile, the Lakers are unlikely to have Anthony Davis available after a strained groin knocked him out of game 4 right before halftime. The Suns, then, seem to have the lead in problems they can present vs. the ones that the Lakers can offer them. The key for the Lakers, though, is sorting through whether or not they can create a new set of problems without Davis and whether the Suns can be prepared for them.

This is where the adjustments come and, honestly, where the chief problem for the rest of the league over the past 15 years or so must shift to the middle of the frame. Hello, LeBron James.

Optimizing and maximizing LeBron is now the Lakers best option for the foreseeable future of this series. Accomplishing that can go in several different directions, but I do have a few ideas:

• More Bron/Gasol minutes. Drummond has been fine in this series and focusing on him too much is probably folly. That said, the Drummond/Bron minutes can still be clunky in terms of spacing, particularly because it allows Ayton to lurk near the paint and contest Bron’s shots around the rim (or deter them entirely). If Bron is playing more PF (or at least playing with a more perimeter based partner at forward — either Keef or Kuz), playing next to Marc means that Ayton’s positioning on the floor changes. I still think he’ll sag off Marc and look to help more, but the help angles change when you’re a foot outside the low block defending Drummond in the dunker’s spot vs. standing at the nail while Marc camps above the break in 3-point territory. This change can translate to better post up chances for Bron and more driving angles, particularly in the P&R (either with Marc or with one of the guards/wings setting the screen). Again, Marc doesn’t need to start the game for Andre. But Ayton is playing 40 minutes, so using 10-15 (or more) of those when Bron is on the floor to have Marc in the game too feels like a good solution.
• Play even smaller. I understand Lakers are not deepest wing team in the league. And for all the utility I just mentioned for how Marc can and should play next to Bron more, an alternative to that is for Bron to not have another “big” next to him at all. Playing Bron next to, say, Keef in the front court with Wes, Alex, and KCP (assuming he can play) gives Bron even more space to work with and puts the Suns in the position of deciding between playing Ayton at all or simply matching up with what the Lakers have on the court. If the Suns take that bait and determine they cannot have Ayton defend Bron (which, if they choose the opposite, good luck) then the biggest player on the floor is likely going to have to guard the best driver and paint finisher the team has, compromising their rim protection in the process. Bron has had great success playing in these types of lineups historically. And considering they need that level of play from him tonight, I’d give these groupings a try, particularly in the 2nd half.
• Use LeBron as an on-ball screener more. With AD out, the want to have Drummond do even more of the “big man” things might be the first instinct, but I think that burden should fall on LeBron — at least offensively. Put him in more screen actions with Dennis, Caruso, and, if he plays, THT. Force the defense to decide how they’re going to cover Bron in these actions and how much attention they’re going to send his way when he rolls vs. when he pops and how much space that can all create for the ball handler and, in turn, for Bron. Maybe you force a switch, maybe you get a soft hedge that allows the ball handler to get downhill. There’s ways to try to create more advantages for both LeBron and the rest of the team by involving him in actions even when he doesn’t have the ball.

There’s more lineup stuff to explore, of course.

Should Trez play? If you’re looking to replicate some of what AD provides as an interior finisher, it shouldn’t be ruled out entirely despite some of the defensive concerns. Understand, in the two games the Lakers lost the Suns scored 99 and 100 points. Finding more offense is important and Trez can help there — though, again, there’s a balance to be struck and wondering if the Suns might score more than 100 should Trez see real minutes is a valid concern. That said, if the Lakers can surround him with enough defensive talent, Trez’s offense can help, especially in the non-Ayton minutes. I’m doubtful Vogel goes in this direction, but I don’t think it should be off the table either.

What are the right lineup combinations to play around Dennis? Getting more production out of their starting PG is paramount for whatever success this team is going to have. Dennis has been below his regular season level this series and had a dreadful game 4. Getting him more space and finding more opportunities to get to the spots on the floor where he can get his jumpshot off cleanly is important. One thing I’d love to see Dennis do is shoot his floater more and take that elbow jumper with more confidence rather than driving all the way to the rim. He needs to understand that it’s his mid-range shot that will open up his drives more and look to be more assertive with that shot. If Ayton is in a drop and Dennis pulls up (making Ayton contest) it could also open up some offensive rebounding lanes for Drummond on the hard roll. Further, if Dennis can snake the P&R some (just like the Suns guards are going) he may be able to force some switches, which could allow him to drive vs. bigger players — something he’s been good at all season.

There’s many other factors to help the Lakers offensively — Kuz needs to play better, the shooters have to make shots, Drummond needs to have a bounce back game, etc. But the biggest thing the Lakers need to get back to is playing with pace and tempo. They need to run and they need to hunt early offense chances. The Lakers are still a team that, with Bron and Dennis, can play fast and use some of their physical advantages to create shots at the rim while the Suns are retreating. Playing against the Suns set defense is going to make this game a slog and it plays into the best aspects of what the Suns do on that side of the floor. Push the pace every chance you get, even if the Suns are really stressing getting back. Hopefully KCP is back and he’s ready to race the floor. But, even if he’s not, Dennis, Bron, Caruso, and Kuz need to set the tone here. Drummond (and Trez, if he plays) needs to run hard to the front of the rim as well. Good things happen when the Lakers play with pace (as long as they’re not being careless and turning the ball over).

Defensively, the answers are not simple, but the game plan is straight forward enough. The Suns are going to continue to pressure the point of attack with their P&R game and their stagger screen/handoff actions for Booker. The Lakers have the tools to slow this stuff down even without AD. That said, having the tools and executing are two different things. There’s a level of sharpness that will be required without AD out there to erase mistakes or serve as a deterrent. Rotations must be on time and the helping of the helper must be consistent and present all night. I do think the Lakers can start to give different looks in the P&R — particularly when CP3 is handling. Until he proves willing to take (and make) 3’s, I’d go under a screen every now and then to see how he handles it. There’s counters to that the Suns will have ready, but make them think a bit more and use up a bit more clock instead of allowing Paul to simply snake every P&R and get into his fading mid-range jumper against Drummond/Marc in their drop coverage. That’s the shot he wants to take and in game 4 he hurt the Lakers with it.

Also, I’d love to see the Lakers tighten up their defense some vs. Cam Payne. Payne’s tendencies should be well known by now, but the Lakers have not done a good job of slowing him. He loves to drive to his right hand and get all the way to the rim, usually with a reverse layup on the other side of the hoop. I’d love to see the Lakers force him left a bit more because his angles change when going to his dominant hand and his lack of size make it harder for him to finish over the help. So, play up on him a bit more to deter his 3 point shot, but force him to his strong hand and see if he’s able to compensate. Things have come too simple for him and it’s time to try to change that.

The Lakers championship hopes certainly depend on AD being healthy enough to compete long term. And not having him for any single game makes things exponentially harder. But, in any given game, a great LeBron James performance can be the ultimate difference maker between winning and losing. There’d be no better night for one of those performances than in game 5. It won’t be easy and we all know that LeBron isn’t 100% either. But he’s what the Lakers have and that just may be enough.

Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on Spectrum SportsNet and TNT.

The post Lakers vs. Suns: Game 5 Preview appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

By winning game 3, the Lakers took control of their series with the Suns. To maintain that control, however, game 4 will present an even bigger challenge because the level of desperation I anticipate the Suns showing will be like nothing the Lakers have seen since, maybe, their play-in game vs. the Warriors. The Suns know going down 3-1 makes the series, essentially, over. It simply does not get bigger than the difference between going back to their rabid crowd in Phoenix tied vs. being on the verge of elimination.

From the Lakers side, there are now several things that they can build on to make their grip on this series even tighter. Offensively, they have found that there’s some key actions that domino in their favor:

1. In game 2, the Lakers opened the 2nd half by running side P&R’s between Bron and AD that the Suns were switching, putting Crowder on Bron and Bridges on AD. AD attacked Bridges aggressively on back to back possessions, causing a double team that led to a LeBron 3 and a spin + drive for a basket and a foul by Davis for a quick 6-0 run. In game 3, when the Lakers went to this same action, the Suns determined they could not switch anymore and Crowder was forced to hedge out on Bron in order to deter drives. In the 2nd half of game 3, whenever Crowder hedged, Bron went downhill and attacked the paint, creating several easy shots in the process…
2. The Lakers weren’t just going to settle on running this action without even more adjustments, though. When Bron started to drive, they also started to relocate Drummond from one dunker’s spot from the other in the middle of the action. This accomplishes two things. First, it occupies Ayton and forces him to be ahead of the play and pre-read whether he can help or of he has to stay with Drummond. If Ayton is late in making this decision, Bron will finish without a good contest. If Ayton does help, Bron can still dump off to Drummond or he can spray the ball out to a shooter. In the 2nd half of game 3, the Suns never did find a good way to really slow this action down with Ayton as the helper. So….
3. Game 3 saw Ayton defend AD more often even when there was another big on the floor. In most instances this was when Gasol was on the floor, with the thinking being that a smaller player could stick the more perimeter based Gasol while Ayton patrolled the paint while also having him (and his size/quickness) defend AD. This sounds good on paper, but what ended up happening was Davis still running P&R’s and Ayton forced into hedging out on aggressive drives and still trying to get back to AD as he rolled hard. Further, the Lakers also pulled Ayton away from the rim and went to their elbow series where AD was in the corner, Marc was at the elbow, and Dennis (or Caruso) brings the ball up. The action then has the ball entered to Marc and then Dennis (or Caruso) going to the corner to screen Ayton. The Lakers spammed this action on back to back possessions and AD got two paint shots to fall, one over Booker and one over Ayton.

So, to summarize, because AD has been aggressive going to the paint on offense, the Suns are hesitant to switch any Bron/AD P&R when AD is being defended by a PF. Which leads to Ayton defending AD more, but that also means that Ayton is going to be even less of a factor in help situations because he’s defending the Lakers leading scorer this series. This, in turn, means that LeBron can take an even more aggressive approach as a driver, because the main impediment to slowing down his drives (Ayton helping in the paint) is not as forceful with that help.

The Suns, then, have a problem and I’m very interested in seeing how they try solve it. Ayton cannot play 48 minutes, but even if he could, the question of who he defends and for how long is staring them right in the face. As long as AD stays assertive and doesn’t settle for his jumper too often and LeBron is aggressive as a driver, the Lakers offense has fundamental actions it can go to in order to generate good looks. Now, if the Lakers shooters could simply start to hit a league average percentage of their open 3’s, they could be cooking with fire. If that happens this game, watch out. KCP’s health will matter here and if he’s limited or does not play, that can throw a monkey wrench in things. That said, Wes, Kuz, AC, and Dennis will continue to get open looks and they need to start to fall. Hopefully it’s in game 4.

On the other end of the floor, the Lakers need to continue to refine their Booker based attack and keep adding wrinkles that can also help slow down Ayton. If the team can continue to find ways to involve AD as a helper down on Ayton and rotate to the Suns shooters, that will help. But the nature of this is hard an is reliant on the Suns not getting so hot from outside that it blows up the plan. But, my sense is that the Lakers will live with a certain amount of Suns made 3’s as long as they’re doing their job on Booker and not letting him walk into mid-range jumpers. As noted above, KCP will be important here and if he’s not able to play (or shows signs of not being healthy) things get harder. Wes is not quick enough to stay with Booker and Dennis is a bit too small. My guess is that if KCP isn’t able to play as well as he has been defensively, it will be Caruso who takes up more of the slack. We’ll see.

The wildcard here continues to be Chris Paul’s health. If, after two more days off, he’s a bit healthier, his mid-range shooting and general playmaking can be a big boost to the Suns. He can organize them better than Booker or Payne and help them flow into their actions with better timing and tempo. If he’s not healthy, though, the Suns become more reliant on their other guards and that’s not a recipe for long term success over the course of a full game. Again, we’ll see how this plays out, but, besides the Lakers shooting drastically improving, it’s probably the biggest variable left that could turn a game in one direction or the other.

As I’ve been saying all series, the most important thing to me is how hard the Lakers play and what their focus level is. Again, the Suns are going to come out desperate to win this game. Expect their best effort of the series. The Lakers need to match that energy and, when the moment comes, turn it up even more to take control and sow those seeds of doubt to make the Suns question if they’re able to win at all. The 3rd quarter of game 3 is instructive here. If the Lakers can get out in transition/early offense, attack the rim with both Bron and AD, and just hit a couple of open 3’s, the floodgates can open — particularly with the Lakers playing at home.

This is the time to really take control of this series. The core of this team knows what it takes — it’s the same thing they saw in the early rounds of the playoffs last year. They just have to go and do it. It won’t be easy, but winning in the playoffs never is.

Where you can watch: 12:30pm start time on ABC.

The post Lakers vs. Suns: Game 4 Preview appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

After winning game 2 to bring the series even at one game a piece, the Lakers enter tonight’s game against the Suns with momentum that they cannot take for granted. Returning home is great and welcomed. The team, however, cannot rest on the fact that playing in front of their own fans will provide them the energy they need to win, rather they must bring that energy themselves and bring the crowd along with them.

There’s really no other thing I want from this team tonight besides the same focus and urgency they carried into Tuesday’s game carry over to tonight’s. Make no mistake, that will be harder. Unlike last year’s team, this team’s urgency is more fluid and not as pressing from possession to possession. Whether it be the duality of the halves of their play-in win over the Warriors or the difference between what transpired in game 1 vs. game 2 of this series, it’s clear that this team will, as is the wont of many teams vying to repeat as champions, conjure the intensity to really win a game when it’s most needed and not as their default position. That said, we know this team has it in them. I want to see it tonight.

From a strategy standpoint, I do expect the Suns to do some things differently. And I think that starts defensively with Anthony Davis. It remains to be seen if they stick with their normal matchups by defending AD with Crowder to start, but it will not surprise me if Ayton is the primary defender more frequently. Ayton’s combination of size, strength, and quick (enough) feet are simply the better option for AD specifically. Of course, that could come with real tradeoffs — unleashing Drummond even more on the offensive glass, involving Crowder in even more ball screens where he has to hedge on LeBron, potential foul trouble for Ayton — but if AD gets going early, a change may be needed.

Another option would be sending more double teams at Davis and turning him into a passer. Over the last two seasons, AD’s success vs. double teams has been hit or miss, but it’s almost always lowered his shot volume and tamed down his assertiveness as a scorer. If the Suns do double, I hope AD makes the right reads as a passer, but I also hope to see some of the adjustments he made in last year’s playoffs where he turns and faces more and then uses escape dribbles to force the double team out further if they’re going to stay with him or force them retreat back into rotation while AD still has the ball and can then attack with the defense scrambling behind him. If AD can generate good shots for teammates and himself even when the Suns double, the Lakers offense will open up even more.

And speaking of offense, the Lakers need to start to shoot better — particularly their role players. KCP and Kuz have been especially silent this series and that needs to change. Game two saw LeBron and AD close the game on a flurry, but it was Dennis and Drummond whose play as support guys who really lifted the team in the early and middle parts of the game to give the Lakers the lead they carried into the 4th quarter. It would be great if the Lakers perimeter shooters could provide that lift this game by knocking down some of the open 3’s the Suns are allowing by packing the paint so much.

This all brings me back to LeBron. A major talking point this series has been his lack of drives to the rim in the halfcourt. Bron’s been good on offense, but mostly as a jumpshooter and passer and not as the downhill force who is finishing at the rim through, over, and around defenders. I’m not sure if this is a health issue or that the Suns defensive approach of packing the paint is simply influencing his decision making. But, I’d love to see Bron get a few baskets on drives this game, simply to offer more variety in his offensive attack (to say nothing of the benefits it can lead to for the bigs via dump-offs and ORebs or the perimeter guys spotting up for jumpers).

Defensively, the Lakers need to continue to decipher the Suns P&R attack and find better ways to both slow down the Suns guards while still recovering to Ayton on the roll to ensure he’s not getting so many easy baskets. This is a complex job to accomplish when playing this action without any weakside help creeping in, so I’m wondering if Vogel is going to show more a willingness to let his wings pinch in or if he’s just going to ask the point of attack guys to be better. If it were me, I’d show more help with AD when he’s in the game at PF and then trust him and the rest of the perimeter guys to recover to contest shots, but I’m not sure if Vogel will see it the same way. Whatever the strategy, though, being better defensively 10-feet and in is a priority.

The wild card for this game is Chris Paul’s health and how much he’s able to provide as a scorer and shot creator. And, in turn, if he’s still limited with his shoulder injury, how much he plays at all. If Paul is closer to his normal self, he can turn the game. If he’s not, though, the Lakers need to have a more specific gameplan for how to deal with Cameron Payne, whose quickness and scoring mentality has provided a real boost for the Suns. The Lakers need to be better at the point of attack vs. Payne in general, but their help also needs to be more alert and responsive to his drives. Turn him into a passer on the move more often and see if he has the playmaking chops to make some of the skip and kickout reads the Lakers are asking Booker and CP3 to make.

When a series is tied 1-1, the winner of game 3 becomes the heavy favorite to win the series. The Lakers now have home court advantage and a win tonight puts the Suns in the position of having to win 3 of the next 4 games to advance. So, while every playoff game is important, this one is especially so. Winning will come down to a lot of things, but it will start with effort and focus. If the Lakers can have both in abundance from the opening whistle, they’ll give themselves a good chance tonight.

Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on Spectrum SportsNet and TNT.

The post Lakers vs. Suns: Game 3 Preview appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

As the lower seed in this playoff series, the main goal is to get a split in the first two games. Sure, you want to win every game you’re in, but getting that split means you flip home court advantage and, even if only slightly, take control of the series. The Lakers, then, should be looking at this game vs. the Suns like “this is the one we really want”. Getting it won’t be easy, of course, but the playoffs are never easy.

Game one was, in many ways, an abomination from the Lakers. That might seem harsh, but in rewatching the game, the mistakes were too frequent and the effort level was too sparse. Those things go hand in hand, of course, and the result was a spiral against them and for the Suns. The fact that the Suns only scored 99 points and the final margin was as close as it was belies what actually happened on the court. The Lakers can be so much better. And while the Suns can too, there’s some areas where they really were at (or near) peak capacity.

In looking forward to tonight’s game, then, we need to start on both ends of that spectrum. For the Lakers, Anthony Davis needs to be better. His effort level and general engagement was too low, his imprint on the game almost entirely absent. His defense was a step behind and his offensive approach was too “let the game come to me”. His approach needs to change and the Lakers need to help him do it.

He cannot go the first 5 minutes without getting a meaningful offensive touch and when he does get the ball, he needs to attack early in his move and not let the defense crowd him or dictate how the possession plays out. No more multiple jab steps that burn the clock before just firing up a long 2, no more half hearted back-downs into deep turnaround jumpers. If he turns and faces, rip through to his strong hand for his floating hook. When they try to take that away, drop step baseline and initiate contact to draw fouls and/or finish through defenders. When he’s in a pure post up situation, he needs to do his work early by holding his ground to get deeper position, shoulder his defender to knock him off his base, and then turn over either shoulder to get his shot off. He needs to run the floor harder and do so for dunks and deep post seals. He needs to play….like Anthony Davis.

The same is true for LeBron, honestly. I know the questions about his health are lurking out there. I’m sure he’s not 100% healthy. But LeBron took 13 shots in game 1, didn’t look to push the pace at all, and was mostly content to linger around the perimeter as a jump shooter and a passer. When he did post up, it was mostly to pass and not to score or draw a foul. Game 1’s are typically “feel out” games for LeBron, I know. But it’s go time for him now and the adjustments he make should, first and foremost, center around his want to attack. I’d love to see this be a night where he gets to the FT line nine or 10 times. I want to see him hunt early offense chances by pushing the ball off rebounds and filling the outside lane for outlets when someone else gets the ball.

As for the rest of the team offensively, guys need to make shots. The Suns are going to crowd the paint and even if LeBron and AD are more assertive and are able to beat the help, they’re still going to make the correct reads and kick the ball out directly to shooters or into positions where the swing-swing will lead to an open shot. The guys need to hit those. KCP, Wes, and Kuz are the primary guys here. But Dennis and, yes, I believe, Marc Gasol will also get these chances.

They need to shoot with confidence, but more importantly, they need to shoot with accuracy. Schematically, the coaches also need to drill some off ball movement in order to help make those shots even more open. Do more weak side exchanges and wing to wing screens to get the defense moving. The bigs should be setting more pin and flare screens to create more space for guys to get those shots off more cleanly and to generate better passing angles that lead to those shots in the first place. When the top side guard cuts and doesn’t get the ball, he should look to pick off an opposing player before relocating to the vacant spot on the wing. There’s more the Lakers can be doing from an X’s and O’s perspective to help their perimeter players (and their post up guys who have to make those reads) get into a comfort zone.

Defensively, there are adjustments to be made, too. The Suns had their way in several offensive sets, but none more so than the double/stagger screen action they ran to get Devin Booker catches at the top of the floor. The Lakers bigs were hedging high on Book as he came off those picks for the handoff and he was making the right read to the diving big or simply dragging out his dribble to walk into open jumpers. The Lakers were also playing the Suns P&R 2-on-2, but had their big men hedging in a way where they weren’t always able to recover to the rolling big men, effectively leading to switches where CP3 and Booker were walking into pull up jumpers and leaving the guard who got screened (KCP, Dennis, Caruso) to fend off the rolling big at the front of the rim. This led to open shots and/or easy putbacks and lobs for the big (mostly Ayton) to clean up.

I understand the Lakers don’t want to help off the Suns shooters and that Phoenix spaces the floor so well, that when you do help the recovery distance is too great to get up a good contest. But the rotations need to be sharper and the pressure at the point of attack needs to be better and more active. The Lakers strengths on defense revolve around size and activity. Those traits were too absent in game 1, even if they held the Suns to 99 points. The Lakers need to speed up the Suns decision making while also shrinking the passing windows. Turn up the pressure and force more thinking about who is open and where the opening is. Even if this doesn’t lead to outright mistakes, it can gum up the Suns offense in ways that force them deeper into the shot clock and to play possessions on the Lakers terms.

As far as the rotation goes, I hope to see a couple of changes. First, I want Gasol to play. He doesn’t need to start, but I think Drummond’s 1st shift should be shorter and that he should go out of the game with the first wave of subs. In game 1, that was when LeBron went out at around the 6 minute mark. If things go that way again, I’d bring in Kuz (or Wes) for Bron and Gasol for Drummond. I’d then let Marc finish the 1st quarter and then come in with Trez to start the 2nd quarter against the Suns’ back up bigs (either Saric or Kaminsky) and let him play with Bron, Caruso, Kuz, and either THT or Wes.

I think this approach can help everyone better play to their strengths by letting Drummond and Trez play with LeBron — who can help them get easier baskets in the P&R and with his passing in general — and pair AD more with Marc and other playmakers (Dennis, Caruso, maybe THT) who can open up the floor for him with some better spacing and more downhill players who will pressure the rim and force help where AD can go to the offensive glass more. These lineups aren’t perfect and the team will likely be sacrificing some defense vs. a sharp Suns offensive team, but in the end I’m hopeful that better offensive performance will allow the team to get into a good rhythm defensively while also letting them get set more often because the Suns are taking the ball out of the hoop more.

Lastly, so much of the Suns success in game 1 came down to the types of plays that are mostly made off effort and commitment. Phoenix did well seeking out transition chances for easier baskets and really winning the rebounding battle. The transition stuff comes down to the Lakers committing to getting back in transition, something that is even more important if they’re going to go to the offensive glass. The Suns clearly believe they can run on this team and the Lakers need to get that out of their heads by doing the work to stop it. As for the rebounding, some of this can be resolved by handling the Suns screen actions better as I laid out above. But some of it will also come down the guards not leaking out and the Lakers bigs playing with more effort when going to the glass. They need to box out and pursue the ball. Once you have it, then you can run. But you cannot get out in transition without the ball first.

Make no mistake, this game may not be a must win, but the Lakers chances in this series go up drastically with a win tonight. To get there, their Bron and AD must assert themselves as the best two best players on the court. In game 1, that was far from the case as Booker’s scoring and CP3’s floor generalship won the day. We can talk all we want about the role players — from Dennis (who needs to play better) to Kuz (who went scoreless in game 1 and was mostly just a guy out there) to Drummond and on down the line — but, as has been the case since the start of last season, this team will go where Bron and AD take them. Tonight, then, they must lead the way.

Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on Spectrum SportsNet and TNT.

The post Lakers vs. Suns: Game 2 Preview appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

The overarching themes heading into this series are pretty clear. The Lakers strengths are in their front court, while the Suns are in their backcourt. The main question, then, is which team is more equipped to slow down the other team’s best players. On paper, it looks like the answer to that question is the Lakers. The game is not played on paper, however, and game 1 will be a test of how effective the Lakers can be at getting Chris Paul and Devin Booker to play below their normal standards.

Defensively, Dennis, KCP, Caruso, and Wes will have a heavy lift, with KCP in particular in store for a long night of chasing Booker around screens and holding up in isolation. If he can do so effectively, the Lakers bigs should be able to offer enough help in order to really make Booker’s life hard. However, if KCP struggles or ends up in foul trouble, the Lakers job gets a lot harder and things can open up considerably for Phoenix’s offense as a whole.

As for defending CP3, I expect Dennis to compete hard and for Caruso to serve as a capable backup. However, Wes Matthews might serve as another viable option for short stretches. When the Lakers beat the Suns a couple of weeks ago, Wes had some encouraging late game possessions on Paul, using his size and strength to battle him for positioning and doing a decent enough job of keeping him for getting to his spots. If Dennis’ minutes don’t mirror Paul’s entirely and/or if the Suns run their two point guard lineup with Payne and Paul playing together, we might find Caruso defending Payne and Wes sliding over to defend Paul. Just something to watch out for.

On the other end of the floor, I’m very interested in seeing how healthy LeBron looks early this series and that begins with this game. The extra days off should help. However, if he’s a bit slowed down or not as explosive, the matchup with Bridges gets a bit trickier. Bridges isn’t the bulkiest guy and isn’t known for his strength, but he has good feet, quickness, and incredible length. If Bron’s not able to elevate in the post or create separation off the dribble, Bridges’ length can cause him some issues and make his life harder as a scorer. Of course, Bron can counter with his passing out of the P&R and from the post, but the Lakers will need his points, too, so here’s to him finding his rhythm early — particularly on his jumper.

Of course, this game (and, really, this series) may very well come down to how well Anthony Davis plays and whether he can assert his will offensively. In the last matchup between these teams, AD was outright dominant and he carried the team to victory. If he can summon even close to that level of performance, the Lakers will be well positioned to win the game. Remember, the Suns really don’t have a viable defender for AD when he has his full offensive arsenal going. He’s too big for Crowder and Saric, too quick for Kaminsky, and too rangy for Ayton. If AD can knock down his jumper, the rest of his game will open up and the Suns will really struggle with him.

Lastly, remember this game is in Phoenix. While this is the first playoff game for many of the Suns’ younger players, expect them to have a good comfort level playing at home. That comfort can translate to more made shots and better energy, particularly at the beginning of the game. The Lakers will need to weather the storm and not get too frustrated if the Suns are able to jump out early. Just stay poised, keep plugging away, and stay within striking distance. The Lakers are good enough, particularly on defense, to string together some stops and then turn those misses into early offense opportunities. Do that enough and the game can turn in your favor.

Where you can watch: 12:30pm start time on ABC.

The post Lakers vs. Suns: Game 1 Preview appeared first on Forum Blue And Gold.

The long, winding road of the regular season is over. The Lakers finally clinched their playoff spot, needing a LeBron James 34-footer with the shot clock nearly expired to dispatch of the Warriors in the play-in game. Their reward is the 7th seed and a date with the Phoenix Suns and their dynamic backcourt of Chris Paul and Devin Booker.

There’s things that do not work in the Lakers favor here that we should get out of the way now. First, they do not have home court advantage (and won’t for the rest of the playoffs, however far they advance). The Suns are a very good home team (27-9 in the regular season) and will have a rabid crowd in their first return to the post season in nearly a decade. Second, the Suns ranked 6th in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency for the season, an elite profile and one that typically translates to being a real title contender.

The Suns, then, are an excellent team. Full stop. It’s fine to think the Lakers will win this series — after all, when healthy, they’re an excellent team too. But, the Suns deserve a massive amount of respect and, in some ways, should incite real worry (and if not that far, an appropriate fear).

That begins offensively. As noted above, the Suns finished 6th on offense during the regular season, but since April 1st they actually boast the #1 rated O at 119.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s an absolutely scary number and one that cannot be dismissed, even against the Lakers and their #1 rated defense. The Suns offense isn’t super complicated, but their formula is tried and true. They almost always play with no fewer than 4 floor spacers on the floor and sometimes play 5. They have really good spacing principles and have enough versatility with their screeners to have them roll for either direct baskets on the dive or to establish deep post position.

This alone would be enough to be a very good offense, but the specific players who fill the roles are what really make it hum. We all know how good Chris Paul is, but it’s worth repeating here. He’s a wonderful shooter, particularly from the mid-range. He’s a pick and roll master and is still good enough against switches to get to his spots around the elbow area to get his jumper off cleanly. Paul’s ability to still manufacture good shots for himself and teammates out of the action translates to easy shots for Ayton on the roll, and open 3’s for his shooters when they collapse to protect the paint. And when nothing develops, he’s patient and smart enough to back things back out and go at it again until something does.

And then, of course, there’s Devin Booker. There’s few shot makers in the league better than Booker. It’s not that he’s the best shooter, but he’s someone who can get to his spots and has enough size and strength to simply elevate and get his shot up and over the top of most defenders. He’s also very good at moving off the ball, getting into screen actions of all varieties in order to get a clean catch with enough of an advantage to flow into spots where he can simply shoot or use his dribble to attack the rim and finish there. He can make shots from anywhere on the floor and that scoring versatility makes it nearly impossible to play him in anyway but straight up, making his specific attack even that much more potent.

Add in the aforementioned Ayton — who can pick and pop, pick and roll, or create his own shot out of the mid and low post, Mikail Bridges (a really good corner 3 point shooter who has enough off the dribble ability to attack a closeout and hit the mid-range jumper), Cam Johnson (stretch 4), Saric, Crowder, Cam Payne, and Kaminsky, and the Suns are deep with quality role players who can all hit shots and keep the ball moving enough to keep the defense off balance. Again, there’s a reason this team is so good on offense.

The Lakers, however, are equipped to deal with a lot of what the Suns do well offensively, so long as they’re disciplined and focused. The Lakers group of guards are about as good a group as you can have to slow the Suns backcourt. KCP is a great lock and trail defender who can chase Booker all over the floor. Dennis is good at navigating screens, particularly at the point of attack, while his quickness allows him to recover and his length allows him to contest shots fairly well. Caruso is, well, simply one of the best defensive guards in the league. Great on the ball and instinctive and smart off it. And Wes Matthews is strong and aggressive at the point of attack, while offering relentless work as a chaser off the ball. These four players, will be tasked with hounding Paul and Booker at all times and, honestly, I trust them to do a good enough job here to give the Suns some issues.

Where the Lakers can effectively win the series, however, is in the defense of their front court guys. Anthony Davis is the best defensive big in the league at the point of attack — either in the P&R or on switches. Drummond, too, can be effective when showing high and then recovering to the paint to still help at the rim. Add in LeBron, who can be devastating in any defensive situation, and Kuz who is another rangy forward who can contain on the ball while being very good at rotating to shooters off it, and the Lakers project to have enough on that end of the floor to make the Suns life harder. Not stop them outright, but force a few more misses, a few more turnovers, and more possessions that go deeper into the clock than they’d like.

Where things get trickier for the Suns is on the other end of the court. Just as the Suns offense took off in the final two months of the season, their defense started to show some cracks. Phoenix ranked 23rd in Defensive Rating since April 1st, offering less resistance at the rim and, overall, just not being as sharp as they need to be. And where things can get even harder for the Suns is in the fact that they simply do not have a lot of viable size behind Ayton, which could translate to a lot of interior success from LeBron, AD, Dennis, Trez, Drummond, and even Kuzma.

Whenever Ayton goes out of the game, one has to wonder how the Suns are going to protect the paint. Is Kaminsky or Saric going to slow down Bron on drives? AD in the post or when diving in the P&R? Dennis in isolation or when turning the corner in the P&R. They’ll surely try to pack the paint to dissuade drives and dives from the outset, but the Lakers have proven persistent in working their actions and being aggressive towards the basket is a fundamental principle of their offensive attack. The Suns will surely scheme and try to junk things up to keep the Lakers off balance (maybe run some zone, maybe trap the post or the ball handler in P&R’s), but the playoffs are when counters to these actions can be better deployed with opponent specific gameplans that reflect seeing the same team night after night.

And, in the end, that’s where the Lakers can really have a big advantage. Yes, Chris Paul is a genius and Monty Williams is an excellent coach, but under Vogel and with LeBron, the Lakers are likely to have an edge (even if only slightly) in areas that involve preparation. And when you add an advantage in talent (particularly at the top with Bron/AD), it’s very possible that slight edge can translate to real advantages night to night.

Of course, no one should say the Suns are destined to fail here. But, they have some fundamental issues to overcome here. Namely, their lack of frontcourt size and versatility is the exact type of issue you do not want to have against a team that employs LeBron and Davis. Those guys, in the playoffs, simply raise their games to levels that are hard to match unless you have similarly talented players. Sure, on any given night, things can go your way. But over the course of a couple of weeks, can you do that 4 times and win? You shouldn’t bet against a team as good as the Suns to figure it out, it’s just that the climb is very steep. You need a certain amount of belief, fortitude, and experience.

That last point shouldn’t go undiscussed either. The Suns are not a very experienced playoff team. Paul, of course, has gone through the fire over and over again. But for the rest of this roster, this will be their first taste of what it means to play at this level. Will they need time to adjust? Will they make one or two more defensive mistakes than they normally would under regular circumstances? Miss one or two more shots they’d typically knock down? Play a half second behind than is required in the post season? These things can be the difference between winning and losing. And when each game has as much value as they do in a series, that can be all that matters.

Again, I don’t want to oversell the Lakers advantages while underselling the issues the Suns can impart going the other way. There’s a reason they’re the #2 seed in the conference and have the statistical profile they do. That said, if the Lakers can stay healthy, they looks poised to offer some problems that are difficult to overcome considering the makeup of the Suns roster. There may not be a matchup in the conference that projects to give Phoenix the types of problems the Lakers do, both in terms of attacking their defense and in having the types of defensive players who can give their offense problems.

It doesn’t mean things will go that way, of course. It’s why we play the games. To see if the way things look on paper actually go that way on the court. The Suns have enough talent and play with enough poise that dismissing them would be foolish. But, in a series vs. the defending champs who look to be like they could be hitting their stride…this isn’t your normal 2/7 matchup.

In the end, I do expect a good series. The Suns will not lie down, they will not quit. I expect close games and some stressful moments. But that’s why I love the playoffs. We’re about to see two really good teams try to get to 4 wins before the other side can. And I expect it to bring out the best in both sides. I cannot wait until Sunday.

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I’m getting right to it today. The Lakers play the Warriors for the right to pass “go” collect their $200, and go right into a playoff matchup with the Suns. The loser will get the winner of Spurs/Grizzlies in a single elimination game whose lose begins their off-season immediately after. The stakes for the Lakers and Warriors tonight, then, is fairly high. As my guy Pete Zayas said on a recent pod, it’s like a playoff game where both teams are up 3-2. Yes, you get another chance if you lose, but better to close things out now rather than get into a winner takes all scenario.

The X’s and O’s of this game are very interesting and both teams should come in with a healthy amount of appropriate fear. For the Lakers, their fear resides in Steph Curry and his ability to score from, well, everywhere. His shooting ability sits at the top of the marquee, but that ability to score from 40 feet from the basket only amplifies his shiftiness and craft to get all the way to the rim and score around/underneath/over the top of big men. His great shooting also translates to mid-range success, so there’s no good answer of “let him shoot from here and everything will be okay”.

For the Lakers, then, I expect their gameplan to mirror what they do with Damian Lillard. That is, play aggressively at the point of attack to dissuade 3-point attempts, funnel to the paint, and then rotate aggressively and early to challenge shots in the restricted area with size and length. This, on its own, is challenging enough. Steph understands teams don’t want him to shoot threes and he still finds a way to take more than 10 of them a game. He knows that possessions don’t end after he passes, and instead is a master of passing to set up his next shot by then relocating and masterfully using jukes, feints, hand fighting, and off-ball screens to find the crease he needs to get of shots. He also knows that a live dribble is his best friend, so he’s more than happy to back dribble away from pressure, draw you out, then pass, then relocate for a jumper via a back cut or by running into a handoff from the guy he just passed to.

And he does all this relentlessly. Never stopping, never coming up for air, never relaxing. He makes you keep up, forcing you to stay physically and mentally sharp for every second he’s on the floor. If you mess up, there he is, open and taking the jumper your whole gameplan says you do not want him taking. To this point, then, the biggest thing the Lakers can be with Steph is engaged and smart. Do not foul, do not take false steps, do not fall asleep after he passes, and be aware in on and off ball screen situations to ensure you’re up at a high enough level to not give him clean looks on the catch or when he’s handling the ball himself in the P&R.

This, then, is a team wide responsibility. We can talk Dennis and KCP and Caruso, all of whom offer good ability to navigate screens and enough physical tools (size, quickness, good hands) to be in good position, but as much responsibility as they’ll have it is the Lakers bigs who need to be just as smart. Staying within proper contest distance while also not ignoring your own man who is screening (or a part of a screen action) requires a lot of smarts and mental engagement. The Warriors will use Steph to screen, will use handoff and off ball actions, only to have the non-Steph player in the equation flash or slip into open space for a layup. So, AD, Drummond, and/or Marc/Trez will need to be at the top their respective games defensively to not get caught in bad positions, basically, ever.

In terms of the other Warriors, Draymond is the other key guy. He’s the prime decision maker and the best partner Steph has to help generate these looks. The Lakers must also stay attached to Draymond and, when helping off him, rotate to him early to force him to get rid of the ball quickly or force a reset of the action rather than get downhill and play with a man advantage. Turn him into a player who must look for his own offense more often than he wants or force him to move the ball onto players who are not as used to being decision makers within the Warriors motion sets.

The other player who needs to be accounted for is Wiggins. We can all make jokes about Wiggins, but he’s a good NBA player who, when slotted appropriately, can play to his strengths as a wide open jump shooter and a downhill player who can score at the basket. The Lakers must force him into more possessions where he has to create his own shots and, hopefully, put him into positions where those shots are long jumpers rather than attempts at the rim. Make Wiggins play as a top option rather than a complementary one and see if he’s able to hurt you all game.

Of course, the aforementioned idea of appropriate fear goes both ways. And while Vogel has probably not slept much this week in trying to figure out ways to slow down Steph, the same is true for Kerr when he’s trying to figure out ways to slow down LeBron and AD, while also neutralizing the rest of the Lakers size advantages.

I won’t get too much into the individual strengths of Bron and AD. We know what those are and how deadly they can be as individual threats. We also know that Draymond and Wiggins will have their hands full and without Oubre as a supplementary wing defender, the task of slowing down Bron becomes more difficult when you get down to defenders like Bazemore and Toscano-Anderson. AD will likely see his minutes mirrored by Draymond, but I’d imagine Looney will also get some chances there too.

My focus, then, isn’t so much on what Bron and AD can do, but rather the approach they take to get to their spots and the tempo the team plays with when trying to get them there. How much will AD and Bron post up? How much P&R will the team run? How much will they push the pace? How much zone will the Warriors play? How often will they double? The answers to these questions will determine the shape the Lakers offense takes and how much they have to rely on the likes of Drummond and/or Trez as secondary interior scorers and offensive rebounders and KCP, Wes, Dennis, Caruso, Kuz, and THT as shooters. Of course, if any of those role players have a big night, the Lakers chances of winning go way up, but how much they’re forced into action vs. how much the Lakers set them up for the action can have a big impact on their success.

Speaking of the role players, there’s two guys who I’m most interested in watching tonight: Dennis and Drummond. For Dennis, he has plenty of playoff experience and has enough scoring capability to really impact this game. If he finds himself on switches vs. Looney, I expect him to attack the rim and hunt layups or kickout/dump-off passes to teammates when the help comes. I also expect him to run a fair amount of P&R with whatever big is on the floor with him and continue to be aggressive in getting into the paint. What I’m less sure about are all the other possessions where he needs to get the team into the right sets and how comfortable he is shooting (and making) his outside shot when he’s help off of. If Dennis can have an efficient scoring night, that, right there, can be the difference in this game being close to it not being close at all.

As for Drummond, this will be his biggest test as a member of the Lakers. He’ll be targeted defensively and will need to make plays offensively on the backboards and as a finisher when the opportunities are there. He’s talented enough on both ends of the floor to be a positive contributor. But the stakes of this game are fairly high and he’s not a guy who has played in a lot of high stakes games. If he’s up to the challenge, his size will make a huge difference. If he’s not up to it, Marc and/or Trez become more vital.

If there’s a few other keys for me, they’re FT’s, rebounding, and turnovers. The Warriors can be foul prone and if Draymond and/or Looney get into trouble, the Warriors will have a steeper hill to climb. As for rebounding, the biggest question of the game is whether the Warriors can effectively gang rebound and keep the Lakers bigs off the offensive backboards. If they can’t, the Lakers will win the possession game and the battle in the paint, which is difficult to overcome even with good outside shooting. Turnovers can be a problem for both teams and should be at the top of list of concerns for both sides. If the Lakers are careless with the ball, the Warriors not only get more possessions, but can go on scoring runs that, for a drought-prone Lakers team, can be problematic. If the Warriors don’t take care of the ball, the Lakers will run for easy baskets. And, if they’re also already doing damage on the O-glass, is just another way to win the possession game.

In the end, the Lakers have enough size and talent to win this game going away. Bron’s health will be a big key in this, but if he’s ready to go and is able to get downhill on drives and force double teams when he’s posting up, the Lakers will generate the types of looks that can give them major advantages in shot quality over the course of a full game. Add AD into this mix, and with the Lakers combination of size and athleticism on the frontline, they project to give the Warriors real problems. Of course, Steph Curry can be the ultimate matchup shifter. His combination of individual scoring and the amount of attention he draws — which opens up teammates for easier shots — can get his team rolling quickly.

So, an appropriate fear is needed. But, the Lakers must also know that playing their best means they win this game. Now, it’s just a matter of doing it. I cannot wait to see of they’re capable.

Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on ESPN.

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As you can tell from the title of this post, I’m not really thinking about the Lakers game vs. the Pelicans tonight. Yes, that’s an important game and one the Lakers need to win if they have any hope of climbing up to the 6th seed and avoiding the play-in game vs. the Warriors (who clinched the 8th spot with a win over the Grizzlies earlier on Sunday). But, the game that also matters for the Lakers hopes is tonight’s matchup between the Nuggets and the Blazers. If the Nuggets somehow win that game, they’ll clinch the 3rd seed for themselves and, if the Lakers also beat the Pelicans, Denver will knock the Blazers down to 7th and a date with the Warriors.

It’s not yet known how the Nuggets will play this game. Will they rest players? Will their top guys (Jokic, Porter Jr., Gordon) get a shift or two and then sit out the rest? Will they go all out and try to win? I’m skeptical of the latter, honestly. The Nuggets can still get to the 3rd seed if the Clippers somehow out-tank the Thunder, but if the Blazers win, the Nuggets can guarantee that even if they do finish 3rd, the Lakers will not finish 6th and end up meeting them in the 1st round. No team is exempt from wanting to manipulate the standings when it comes to who they’d rather face in the playoffs, so I wouldn’t blame the Nuggets for doing just that. After all, would you rather face a full Lakers team (even if they’re not 100% healthy) or the Blazers?

I know what my choice would be if I were the Nuggets. So, we’ll see how that plays out.

As for the Lakers matchup with the Pelicans, New Orleans is basically holding out all of their top players. Zion is already out with a broken finger, but the Pelicans have gone the extra step of sitting out Ingram, Lonzo, and Steven Adams too. It’s not yet clear if LeBron will play tonight, but assuming he gets some run on the 2nd night of a back to back, the Lakers will be (deservedly) heavily favored to win. I don’t like to count my chickens before they’re hatched, but I would like to assume the Lakers come in with a certain amount of focus and motivation to get this win. And, if they do that, they should be fine.

Which brings me back to the Blazers vs. the Nuggets. That is the game that Lakers fans will have a real interest in tonight. Because how that game plays out will be just as, if not more, meaningful as what the Lakers do in their own game. Buckle up everyone, it should be one interesting night.

Where you can watch: 6:00pm start time on Spectrum SportsNet and NBA TV.

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So, if there was one major thing to look forward to when the Lakers and Pacers matchup, it was would Dennis and LeBron return to the lineup. Well, we have our answer:

With both Bron and Dennis back, the Lakers are basically back to full strength. Alex Caruso is also probably available to play, but may still be held out as he deals with foot soreness. Otherwise, the Lakers are starting to get their guys back and these games can be meaningful from the standpoint of getting them all some run and some familiarity with each other. Beyond that, though, I have a confession…

…I’m going to be honest, the particulars of today’s matchup between the Lakers and the Pacers aren’t really on the front of my mind. Indy, after looking like a potential top 5 seed early in the year is no longer that. They’re dealing with injuries, (reportedly) have issues with their head coach, and are now mostly looking more towards next season whether they make the playoffs or not. The Lakers, meanwhile, are still trying to leapfrog the Blazers and get to the 6th seed (and out of the play-in game) and a potential matchup with the Nuggets or the Clippers in the 1st round.

So, while how these teams matchup on the court will determine the results which will impact the standings, my mind is fast forwarding to the standings implications up front. For one, because the Pacers don’t particularly interest me and, two, because the standings stuff is, truly, captivating. If the Lakers win today, the games on Sunday become so important for seeding purposes that monitoring the scoreboard of all these games will be a full time job. The most likely scenario is still that the Lakers end up 7th, the Blazers 6th, and the Mavs 5th. But there’s still a chance the Lakers move up and there’s a chance that the Clippers fall to 4th, maneuvering their way into a matchup with the Mavs in the process.

There’s so much intrigue in the results right now, that I’m honestly not even caring about the process. This is so unlike me, but I’m just being honest. I’m truly just wanting to see how it all plays out and not quite as worried about how we get there.

Before I droll on any longer, then, I’m just going to say, enjoy today’s game. If the Lakers win, they live to fight another day for the 6th seed (and a week off to rest and practice and prepare for the playoffs). If they lose, they’ll know they’ll be 7th and will either play the Warriors or the Grizzlies early next week for a chance to clinch a spot in the playoffs. We’ll have more on all this later.

Where you can watch: 10:00am start time on Spectrum SportsNet.

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The Lakers had a thrilling win last night, beating the Knicks in overtime on a game winning THT 3-pointer on their final offensive possession and then getting a great defensive stop on the Knicks final chance. The Lakers needed a last second put-back from Wes Matthews to even force OT, and this after nearly 48 minutes of a back and forth, old-school 90’s style of a game that featured hard nosed defense and, particularly in the 2nd half, some spotty shotmaking. That said, the Lakers don’t have much time to celebrate that win with the Rockets coming into town tonight.

First things first, however, is the Lakers will raise their banner tonight. More than anything else, this will give them a moment to remember what they accomplished and let fans cheer them on. This should give them an initial boost and, hopefully, also focus them on the goal they’re seeking out this year.

That said, the other reality will set in pretty quick. Neither LeBron nor AD will play in tonight’s game. It was thought Bron would come back from his recent ankle soreness to give it a go tonight, but Saturday vs. the Pacers is looking more likely now. As for AD, he finished the game after dealing with a “tight” groin that was clearly bothering him and it turns out that less than a day later he/the team/the doctors think it best to give him some rest rather than play. I agree with this line of thinking, particularly when you consider his recent minutes load. Alex Caruso is listed as questionable, but after leaving the Knicks game with continued soreness in his foot, he may also be out.

Of course, the Rockets injury report is even more drastic than the Lakers. The Rockets will be without so many players, it’s almost comical, but of the names many casual fans would recognize, both Christian Wood and and Danuel House are questionable. Otherwise, for the clearly tanking Rockets, many of their better players have been ruled out and it’s time to get extended looks at some end of the roster guys as they look forward to next season.

This game, then, is a tricky one to actually evaluate. The Lakers are down their best players, just played last night, and may again be down to one capable ball handler. They still have more talent than the Rockets, but the general skill set of the remaining group is short in a really important area. They’re playing a Rockets team, however, that is so short on talent that the competitive nature of the team will be tested. It’s just hard to get up for such a depleted team, even on a night the team will have fans celebrating the raising of banner #17. On the other hand, teams love to beat the Lakers and I would imagine as much as the Rockets tank is surging, they’d still make a quick detour off their downward trajectory to mess up the Lakers chances of getting out of the play-in game and spoiling their celebration.

With the roster the Lakers do have, however, there’s three players who I think will need to have big nights in order to get this win. First is THT. I don’t think this requires much explaining; he’s the team’s best wing shot creator and him being able to score and facilitate for teammates is big key. The 2nd is Kyle Kuzma. Kuz’s game vs. the Knicks was a bit obscured by THT’s late 3 and Wes’ tip-in, but Kuz’s 18 point first half kept the team in it and a repeat performance on the scoreboard would be really helpful. The final guy is Trez. Harrell’s role has been vastly reduced with Marc re-emerging as a rotation piece, but with AD out the Lakers will need Trez’s interior scoring and general enthusiasm for putting the ball in the basket. They will also need his energy on the 2nd night of a back to back.

Of course there’s other players who matter here — Drummond could be very important and will need to do more with AD out, KCP’s shooting and transition attacking can make a big difference, and Wes continuing to defend and shoot well can also be big. But if Kuz/THT/Trez have big nights, I feel pretty comfortable with how this game will go. Let’s go get it and hopefully see close to a full roster back this weekend.

Where you can watch: 7:30pm start time on Spectrum SportsNet.

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I’ll be honest, I’m not quite sure what to write about this game. The Lakers play the Knicks in an important game for both teams. The Lakers are still trying to get into the 6th seed and, even though they’ll need the Blazers help, can put themselves in position to get there by winning their final 4 games. The Knicks, meanwhile, are currently 4th in the East, but the Heat and Hawks are hard-charging and if NY wants to stay where they are they need to keep winning. The stakes, then, are pretty high for both teams and I expect the effort from everyone to reflect that.

That said, the Lakers are still in a bit of a rough spot. It was thought LeBron could return this game, but ESPN is reporting he’ll wait one more day, returning on Wednesday night instead. This makes sense considering he was unlikely to play in a back to back anyway, so why jump into the lineup only to then miss a game the next night. With Bron still out and Dennis still not out of health and safety protocols, the Lakers are still looking at Alex Caruso and THT as their main ball handlers and Anthony Davis as the primary fulcrum of the team’s entire offensive attack. This has gone well enough the last few games (wins vs. the Nuggets and Suns, a strong performance vs. the Blazers in a loss), but it’s still a heavy lift for all involved.

Versus a very good Knicks defense, one has to wonder to what degree this will continue tonight. AD should be able to do well vs. any and every defender Thibs throws at him, but both AC and THT will need to be sharp and disciplined, things that bring some, but not all, of the time (particularly THT). So, can the Lakers generate good shots on most of their possessions? Can they avoid turning the ball over? Can they hit 3’s when AD gets doubled or swarmed? The answer to these questions very well could determine the game.

On the other end of the floor, I’m very interested in how the Randle vs. AD matchup goes. Randle has a strong case to make an All-NBA team this year and has become a supreme shotmaker on jumpshots from all over the floor. He’s hitting pull up mid-range J’s and step back 3’s and fading baseline shots that, honestly, are so developed you wonder where it all came from.If AD can shut off Randle’s faucet, the Knicks will have issues scoring. And if Caruso or THT or KCP or whatever other guard Vogel throws on him can slow down Derrick Rose, the Knicks struggles to score will only be exacerbated.

In saying that, though, the biggest thing about this game will be “who plays harder?” When these teams played in New York, the answer was very clearly the Knicks. And they won. The demeanor of this Lakers team has changed since then, though, so I’m encouraged heading into tonight. The stakes and stage of the season have clearly awoken something in AD and the rest of the team is following suit. And if the shots fall, the Lakers could be well positioned to keep some of this momentum going. We’ll see.

Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on Spectrum SportsNet and TNT.

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When the Lakers visit Portland to play the Trailblazers Friday night, the stakes are about as high as they can get for a regular season game. Playoff seeding is not only at stake, but the prospects of having to participate in the play-in game is also on the line, with the 7th seeded Blazers looking to leapfrog the Lakers and earn the tiebreaker all in one night. That last part is important because, a loss basically puts Portland 2-games up on the Lakers with only 5 left to play. Not insurmountable odds, but close to it.

As has been true of late, the circumstances do not favor the Lakers, either. All of Bron, Dennis, and THT remain out. Alex Caruso, the last remaining primary ball handler, is listed as questionable with a foot contusion. The game is on the 2nd night of a back to back and on the road, too. Meanwhile, Portland is mostly healthy (Norm Powell, who missed their last game, is probable and only Zach Collins remains out), is motivated to move up in the standings, and would love nothing else than to put the team that bounced them from the playoffs last year into an even worse spot than they already are.

The good news is that Anthony Davis is probable to play with the back spasms that kept him out of the Clippers game after his 1st quarter shift. So, while AD is still a bit banged up, he should be fresh and have the requisite energy to go out there and play a style similar to his performance against the Nuggets earlier this week. Of course, AD has to show he’s committed to doing that, but he has no real excuses (unless his back starts to lock up on him again, then all bets are off).

Considering all the above, I see this game going one of two ways.

First, Alex Caruso is able to play, AD brings the competitive fire and the team plays hard enough on defense to keep the game close. If Kuz scores well, KCP and Wes hit shots, and Drummond makes an impact on the glass, the Lakers could even win in this scenario. They have some good defensive ingredients to matchup with the Blazers and a smallish front-line that AD can go to work against in post up situations. The game going this way is the most favorable of outcomes and requires the Lakers to play one of their best games of the year in one of their most important ones. That’s…a lot.

The second is that Alex doesn’t play (or is limited) and the subsequent lack of ball handing and back court defensive deficiencies sink this team. If AD doesn’t play well in this scenario, the game would be a blowout. I could get into some of the other details here, but I won’t bore you. Dame is a killer, CJ is great, Powell can really score, and it won’t matter if the Blazers’ front court isn’t is major threat (outside of Melo), they’ll have enough to win. This scenario seems much more likely and, honestly, I think that is pretty clear.

Don’t get me wrong, I think the Lakers can compete, or even win this game. I really do. But it’s going to take an incredible effort and there’s little this team has shown me, basically all season, for me to believe that is coming when LeBron isn’t playing and with as much uncertainty with their shot creation. AD could make that statement look dumb by the end of the night, and I’D INVITE THAT — PLEASE SHOW ME. Otherwise, though, I’m just chalking this up to the Lakers are in too rough a shape, don’t have the horses, and it feels like it’s seeping into their heads now in (potentially) feeling bad for themselves. I don’t necessarily blame them, either. It’s been a hard stretch and at some point, you just get overwhelmed.

That said, I just hope to see some fight tonight. There’s a lot on the line and I’d love to see the team’s spirit and general approach reflect that.

Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on Spectrum SportsNet and ESPN.

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The Lakers got a great and much needed win vs. the Nuggets on Monday, but their overall circumstances still leave them in a rough spot. LeBron James remains out with his sore ankle, Dennis Schröder is out due to COVID protocols, and THT dealing with a calf strain that leaves him questionable for tonight’s matchup with the Clippers. Meanwhile, the race for seeding (and to stay out of the play-in game as a 7th seed or lower) remains as tight as ever, with the Lakers and Mavs currently tied (but the Lakers in the 6th seed due to the tiebreaker) and both only a half game up on the 7th seeded Blazers who have found their stride again.

If THT doesn’t play, the Lakers will be down 3 ball handlers, leaving them with only Alex Caruso as a lead guard type and a bunch of forwards/big men who would need to pick up the slack. At this point, with how the Lakers have handled injuries, I’d assume THT sits, so I think we need to prepare ourselves for a game where AD does a lot of ball handling and where Marc Gasol ends up getting more minutes simply as a way for the team to have another strong decision maker on the floor. What this would mean for Harrell would remain to be seen, but I have a hard time seeing Vogel playing Marc/Trez together, but we’ll see if any of my assumptions (including Marc playing at all) are correct.

In saying that, my mindset going into this game is similar to what I had on Monday before the Denver game: I do not expect the Lakers to win. The Clippers have been dealing with their own health issues, but of their main rotation players, only Serge Ibaka is ruled out tonight. So, expect a nearly full squad clippers group ready to come in and get a win as they ramp up for the playoffs. The Lakers are going to be in survival mode and, with some desperation, that could be meaningful. But, in the big picture, this is still a talent league and the Lakers are down a lot of that.

That said, the big thing I’m looking for this game is for Anthony Davis to bring a similar level of effort and determination as he did on Monday. AD played his best game since returning from injury vs. the Nuggets and carrying that forward, even in these far from ideal circumstances, is a key goal for this game. No, the Lakers aren’t likely to win, but they can play hard and start their own process of preparation for the post season (whatever form that takes). So, play hard, play smart, and continue to work on the things the team will need to do well in the playoffs.

That starts on defense. AD is sure to get a myriad of different assignments this game, from Kawhi to Marcus Morris to Zubac to even Paul George (mostly on switches here, but even as a primary assignment now and then). I’m hoping to see a continuation of improved timing, instincts, and intensity from AD in whatever matchup he has, moving more towards the destructive defense player he’s been over the course of his career. I also want to see how KCP holds up on George, if Wes can hold his own on possessions vs. Kawhi, and how much Drummond can be impactful in the P&R when Zubac is in the game — can Drummond keep him from getting downhill cleanly; can he battle him for deep position; can he keep him off the offensive glass? I also want to see the Lakers defend the arc, getting into rotations quickly and showing good discipline when chasing shooters off the line.

Offensively, I don’t expect much. The Lakers are down too many shot creators and I expect the Clippers to throw the kitchen sink at AD whenever he has the ball. That will include hard doubles, shading extra defenders into his driving and passing lanes, and generally showing him multiple defenders whenever he’s in an attack position. The Lakers can counter this with good weakside screens and smart ball movement, but that will only go so far. It would be really helpful if they could knock down some outside shots, too, but that’s still so much of a question night to night that it’s hard to rely on that.

Where I think the Lakers could do some damage offensive is in the paint, if they’re able to get the ball into their bigs consistently. Zubac will offer good resistance when he’s in the game, but he won’t play 48 minutes. The Lakers must use their size and their athleticism to their advantage, both in the post, but also on the offensive glass and in transition. It won’t be pretty trying to ram the ball into the restricted area, but slowing the game down and, potentially drawing some fouls that get them to the FT line either on shooting attempts or via the penalty, could help balance the scales some.

In saying all that, my expectations are fairly low for this one. The Lakers are severely outmanned and the Clippers also seem to have that extra motivation when playing this team. So, if the Lakers can just go out there and compete hard, I’ll live with the results.

Where you can watch: 7:00pm start time on TNT.

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“We back.”

As streamers fall to the court in the aftermath of the Lakers snapping their 3 game losing streak by getting a win vs. a red hot Nuggets team, these are the words Anthony Davis says to KCP as they bring their heads together on the sideline. It’s a message to a teammate, but, I’d imagine, also one to himself. It’s both words meant to reassure at a time where the team desperately needs it and ones that reflect a certain confidence, or even arrogance by refocusing this team’s goals — and his role in achieving them — back into the center of the frame.

Davis, after several games of not looking like himself, finally broke out of his funk and reminded everyone of how special he can be on both ends of the floor when he’s engaged and feeling healthy. In the final minute of a game the Nuggets threatened to win after being down double digits, Davis hit a big basket in the paint to put his team up four and then, on the Nuggets final offensive possession, he closed out from the paint to the 3-point line to block a shot that would have brought Denver within a single point, ultimately recovering the loose ball and dribbling out the clock to seal the win.

AD finished the night with 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocked shots. He moved well, played with good activity level, regained his some of his previously absent defensive timing, and (as the cameras showed us) played through some general tightness in his calf to play his best game since returning from injury. AD wasn’t quite back to full form, but it’s as close as he’s been since his 9-week layoff and, if we’re being honest, a level he’s only really hit a handful of times in this wackily compressed bloodsport kumite of an NBA campaign.

Whether AD’s proclamation to his teammate is accurate or not remains to be seen, but I am encouraged. Davis has always been a player who knows what going up a level entails. He’s not been to the playoffs many times in his career, but in every postseason he’s participated he has elevated his game to be a better player than he was during the regular season — which, considering his stature in this league, is a real achievement. Lakers fans saw this firsthand with last season’s ridiculous 1st Team All-NBA and All-Defense regular season that he somehow managed to top with a complete demolition of opponents during the team’s push to winning the title.

Coming off the level he’d shown since his return, what the Nuggets game also did was remind us of what is possible. Make no mistake, the Lakers were in a bad place. Forget the standings and the potential of participating in the play-in game, this team no longer resembled the group that was favored to win the title just 5 months ago. They didn’t look it on the court in their play, but also they did not look like it mentally. There was no urgency, no sense of togetherness. They were disparate pieces trying to summon something that just kept eluding them. Like a car with a bad starter, the ignition only clicked and never turned over to get the engine revving.

Anthony Davis, even at the level he showed vs. the Nuggets (to say nothing of the one we know he can reach based on last season’s run) can change that. He is the algorithm that unlocks the code for accessing the best these Lakers can offer. Make no mistake, LeBron James is the team’s best player and, if not the best player in the game, in the conversation for that. But, in the construction of this team, his greatness is the Lakers floor; he gets you to a baseline of competence and gives you a path towards competing at the highest level.

Alternatively, Anthony Davis’ greatness is the team’s ceiling; he is the player who, when paired with LeBron, gives you the path towards dominating any and all comers. Davis is the cheat code who makes your small-ball lineup too small and your big lineups to slow. He is the one who defends other team’s bigs as a primary assignment, switches onto their smalls in a pinch, and can be deployed onto their power wings in order to give everyone else a more advantageous matchup or to put them into more ideal help situations. His versatility, on both sides of the ball, at his size makes other teams adjust to him — usually unsuccessfully..

The version of Davis we saw vs. the Nuggets, then, is somewhat of a proof of life. It’s affirmation that the thing it was fair to wonder was still there actually is. The next step is accessing that game after game, but I’ll take what we got on Monday night and let it wash over me for a bit longer. The Lakers play again on Thursday, but in the mean time, I’ll feel a bit better because the player I was waiting to return not only told us, but showed us on Monday that he’s back.

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