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The term “off base” is defined as “not being in agreement with what is true” (Merriam-Webster.com). For farm policy, the term may conjure the base acre design for farm program…
Revision to Illinois crop budgets show improved return prospects due to slight increases in projected prices and significant federal support from the Farmer Bridge Assistance and ARC/PLC programs. Due to the bridge program payments, return projections for 2025 are now slightly above break-even levels in northern and central Illinois but remain negative in southern Illinois. Upda...
The ratio of US cropland price to cropland cash rent has nearly doubled since 1998, from 20 to 36. Empirical analysis so far has not identified any statistically significant explanatory factor, so this article’s purpose is to call attention to this dramatic change. Given land’s large share of US farm assets (roughly 80%), it is important that identification of the factors underl...
This article presents a model to forecast net return at harvest for the nine field crops that USDA ERS computes an economic cost of production. The model includes last year’s percent net return at harvest, last year’s average return to storing US corn and soybeans, and the ratio of beginning world stocks to last year’s use of the nine crops. These variables forecast a percent ne...
The USDA recently announced payment rates for row crops eligible for the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Acres planted to corn ($44.36 per acre), soybeans ($30.88), wheat ($39.35), and 16 other eligible commodities should expect to receive FBA payments by the end of February. The average 1,500 acre grain farm in Illinois, with acres planted to corn and soybeans on owned and ca...
