Despite multiple certification delays, China Airlines and Korean Air have recently ordered the 777-9. Other airlines that have large fleets of high-capacity aircraft (777-300ER or larger) are holding off on ordering the 777X, notably Air France and Korean Air. This blog post explains why some airlines are electing to hold off.

There is more than delivery delays

Launched in 2013, the maiden 777X delivery was scheduled for 2020. The first delivery timeline has now been pushed back to 2027. Knowing that there are already 600 orders for the family and that Boeing will need to ramp up production, any order placed today wouldn’t be delivered until the early 2030s.

It is then understandable for airlines that don’t urgently need highly efficient high-capacity aircraft to hold off. The only major airline with “really old and inefficient” large jets is Lufthansa, which still operates eight 747-400s and six A340-600s.

Most other airlines operate younger (and more efficient, assuming they fit the carrier’s network) 777-300ERs, A380s, and 747-8s. The oldest 777-300ERs were delivered in 2004. Five hundred and ninety-eight out of the 760 in passenger service were delivered in 2010 or later.

The airlines that ordered the 777-9 are those for which the aircraft is usually “core” to the network and profitability. Except for Qantas and Air China, all of the A380 or 747-8 operators have ordered the 777X.

Grouping potential 777X customers by group

Despite operating the third and fourth-largest 777-300ER fleets, Air France and Turkish Airlines have held off on ordering the 777X. For both carriers, adding smaller A350s and Dreamliners (in Turkish Airlines’ case) adds more value to the airlines’ respective networks.

Air France and KLM first need to replace older 777-200ERs and A330ceos, while Turkish Airlines wants to upgauge on key routes and broaden its network. This blog does not expect either carrier to consider ordering the 777X until deliveries have started. One can consider Thai Airways in a similar case, even though the carrier’s financial situation is far more precarious than the other two, and it restarts from a far smaller base.

Those four airlines account for 112 in-service 777-300ERs.

The next batch of carriers is those that are not ordering the type due to significant political influence. The big three Chinese carriers (Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern) have not ordered the A350-1000 or 777-9. Saudia is sticking with Dreamliners for now, as the Saudi Arabian government needs to decide how it wants to split route duties between it and the new Riyadh Air carrier. Riyadh Air has ordered the A350-1000.

The last one in the list is Aeroflot. The Russian flag carrier won’t do anything until the political situation with either the USA or the European Union cools down due to the war in Ukraine. Those five carriers operate a combined 118 777-300ERs and five 747-8s.

The last major group is carriers that operate relatively younger 777-300ERs and that tend to keep their aircraft in service for longer: Air Canada, American, Swiss, and United Airlines. Those carriers are first focusing on replacing smaller twin-aisle aircraft with A350s or Dreamliners. Don’t expect any of those carriers to take delivery of 777Xs until the second half of the 2030s. While Boeing has a shot at winning either of the three North American carriers, this blog believes Swiss will keep its fleet simpler and order the A350-1000 in due time.

Conclusion: Can a stretched A350 sway some airlines?

This blog discussed the prospects of a stretched A350 a few months ago. The variant could win some orders with key customers, but the conditions are not yet suitable for a launch: A350 production needs to ramp up to 12 per month, the Trent XWB 97 needs to improve its durability, and the A350F needs to be certified.

Airlines are now more focused on upgrading their smaller aircraft fleets, which were delayed by the Covid-19 disruptions and production problems at Boeing. It won’t be until the 2030s that airlines will replace their aging large aircraft in earnest. Airbus still has a few years to decide whether launching another A350 stretch makes business sense.

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