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Title of Econbrowser: "Econbrowser | Analysis of current economic conditions and policy"

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Canada: Imminnent Recession?

The second release of Q1 GDP pushed growth to a very slight negative number (-0.1% annualized). Lots of skeptical commentary regarding an imminent recession call based on this number, from professional economists (


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Where to Find Business Cycle Chronologies for Countries

Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021). This list seems relevant as


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Peak in Personal Income ex-Transfers: September 2025 or January 2026?

The latest release shifted the peak in real personal income excluding current transfers — a key indicator followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee — from January 2026 to September 2025, and changed the q/q annualized growth rate through March from -0.7% to -1.3%.


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Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index

Philadelphia Fed national index, plus consensus on May ADP employment:

Figure 1: Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (...


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Eight Measures of the US Price Level

Headline CPI has risen the least since 2025M01:

Figure 1: Headline CPI (bold black), chained CPI, n.s.a. (green), CPI for wage earners and clerical workers (red), CPI-ex shelter (orange), PCE deflator (purp...


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