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E-piphany

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Title: E-piphany | A Blog About Markets, Mania, and Miscellany

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For a couple of years, I have been relentlessly defending my forward inflation forecasts against a sizeable group of people who looked at various high-frequency rent indicators and concluded that rents were going to be imminently in deflation. (For most of the last year many of those same people thought tariffs would be a large and immediate effect increasing...


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Let’s start this month by remembering the absolute dumpster-fire that was last month’s CPI. The number for November was patently ridiculous on its face, and it took mere minutes to realize that the BLS was showing 2-month changes for what were essentially one-month changes:

“Because what it looks like is that for many series the BLS didn’t calculate a two-month cha...


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In early 2020, global nominal interest rates converged around zero, with the US (at the 10-year maturity point) under 1% and the EU slightly negative. The monetary spigots were on, and central banks coordinated to squirt liquidity everywhere they could. Since that time, as monetary policy has diverged somewhat, nominal interest rates have diverged. Notably, Japanese rates rem...


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What better way to end this crazy year than with an economic data point that we don’t know how to really interpret? Happy New Year!

Recall that, thanks to the government shutdown, the BLS released September CPI (by recalling workers to calculate the number based on data already collected) but didn’t do any of the normal price-collection procedures for the...


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I’ve worked in the inflation field for about a quarter-century (depending on how you want to count it), and I can tell you that if you really want to start a food fight at an investment conference, mention the term ‘hedonic adjustment’ as it relates to the Consumer Price Index. Thanks to substantial counter-programming by people who want you to prefer their ...


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