DeFi Rate

Key Takeaways ▸ Kalshi suspended three political candidates for trading on their own elections, framing the activity as insider trading under its CFTC-approved rules. ▸ One of those candidates, Minnesota State Sen. Matt Klein, is also sponsoring legislation to ban prediction markets, adding a layer of political tension to the enforcement action. ▸ The suspensions come...

Key Takeaways ▸ Kalshi and Polymarket priced a lean-Yes, close race, matching the 51.5%–48.6% result. ▸ The new map could swing Virginia from 6–5 to 10–1 Democrat, a key boost for 2026 House control. ▸ Prediction markets effectively priced not just the outcome, but the margin and broader map impact in real time.

The Virginia redistricting referendum this we...

Key Takeaways ▸ Markets see a real flip opportunity in Ohio’s Senate election: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted are pricing as a near toss-up with Democrats slightly favored (~58–59%). ▸ Kalshi flipped from a GOP edge (~76%) to a Democratic lean, signaling changing sentiment ahead of November. ▸ Trading is still relatively light, but this seat could be pivotal for Senate ...

Key Takeaways ▸ Prediction markets let you trade the event itself rather than a proxy, meaning you can be right about an outcome and actually profit, unlike traditional hedges that can fail even when your thesis is correct. ▸ From Citadel Securities eyeing market-making opportunities to block trades in the $20–30M range, prediction markets are quietly shifting from “be...

Key Takeaways ▸ New York Attorney General Letitia James has sued Coinbase Financial Markets and Gemini Titan, alleging their prediction market products amount to illegal gambling under state law. ▸ The lawsuits seek sweeping remedies under Executive Law § 63(12), including injunctions, disgorgement of profits, restitution, and potential liability for individuals tied t...