INGLEWOOD, CA - DECEMBER 13: Washington Huskies wide receiver Denzel Boston (12) catches the ball for a touchdown during the LA Bowl hosted by Gronk between the Boise State Broncos and the Washington Huskies on December 13, 2025, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This draft is looking like it could be very interesting since there seems to be some belief that the team is not locked into any one position in the first round. For a little while the consensus was the Vikings would take a safety and that it would be Dillon Thieneman which would be an excellent pick. Even Emmanuel McNeil-Warren would not be a bad pick.

yore AI question of the day …

Is taking a safety in the first round of the NFL draft a good value pick? If not, what positions are good values and which ones have the highest success rate in terms of solid play?

Taking a safety in the first round is generally considered poor positional value, particularly in the top 10. However, safeties have one of the highest success rates in the league for first-round picks, making them a “safe” bet to find a starter even if the financial and strategic value is lower than other positions.

Positional Value of Safeties
Cap Efficiency: Drafting a safety in the top 10 often means paying them a salary near the top of the veteran market immediately. In contrast, a first-round quarterback or edge rusher costs significantly less than their veteran counterparts, providing massive “surplus value”.

Inherent Impact: Conventional wisdom holds that safeties are less impactful on winning (lower Wins Above Replacement or WAR) compared to “premium” positions like Quarterback, Offensive Tackle, or Edge Rusher.

Exceptions: “Unicorn” prospects with extreme versatility—players who can play deep zone, blitz, and cover athletic tight ends—are often seen as worth a high pick.
…
Position : Day 1 Hit Rate : Success Definition
Interior Offensive Line (iOL) : ~70-92% : Highest likelihood of signing a second contract or becoming a long-term starter.
Offensive Tackle (OT) : ~73% : High floor; 37% of 50-game starters over the last 20 years were first-rounders.
Safety (S) : ~71.4% : Very low bust rate (~14-18%) compared to other defensive positions.
Linebacker (LB) : ~58-70% : Historically low bust rate; often dependable starters for at least half their careers.
…
High-Value vs. High-Risk Positions
High Value (Premium): Quarterback, Edge Rusher, Offensive Tackle, and Wide Receiver are the highest value due to their impact and veteran cost.

High Risk (High Bust Rate): Wide Receivers and Edge Rushers have some of the lowest hit rates in the first round. WRs, in particular, have been cited with a bust/reach rate as high as 63%.

Running Backs: While they have a high “All-Pro” potential if drafted in the first round (31%), they are often considered the worst value pick due to short career spans and high bust rates.

Considering the Vikings draft needs in 2026, it looks like defensive tackle would not be a good pick at #18. Safety is the most common pick among mock drafts but that is an uncertainty because it is unclear if Brian Flores wants a safety early. Offensive tackle could be a sneaky pick since the team has not reached an extension agreement with Brian O’Neill and may be hesitating to pay him 23-25M per year as he enters his 30’s. His past injury history is a risk. The team does need to get another center but is willing to give Blake Brandel the job in 2026. Plus, there is not a center worth a first round pick (or second round pick for that matter). They could take a tackle like Spender Fano and move him to center or maybe a top guard to move to center. That is a risk with a first round pick. Another receiver is not a bad idea since the team has picked up the fifth year option on Jordan Addison but may not give him a 25-30M extension. A cornerback is nice but the team has Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, and James Pierre as the top 3 corners. It is coming down to edge, tight end (if Kenyon Sadiq is there), or linebacker (CJ Allen at 18 may be early).

What position will and should the team take is the question of this draft?

Minnesota Vikings News and Links

Part 11, S: Why Caleb Downs, a ‘slam dunk,’ is one of the best players in the NFL Draft

DILLON THIENEMAN, Oregon (6-0, 206, 4.37, 1): Asked before the combine if Thieneman could run, one scout replied: “That is really a good question. I didn’t see a speed-deficient guy. I’m just wondering if we’re going to see anything better than 4.55. I’d put him in the 4.6 range but nobody cares – with his production.” Thieneman ran 4.37. “I thought he’d be a second-rounder,” said another scout. “This guy ran himself potentially into the first round. Compared to the other guys who have questions … his question would be pure man-to-man ability. But he can run and he’s smart and he’s tough enough. He’s made a lot of tackles. He produced at Purdue and now he’s done it at Oregon. I think he’s going one.” Started 12 games as a true freshman for the Boilermakers after arriving as a three-star recruit and was named Big Ten freshman of the year. Started 12 times for the anemic program as a sophomore before heading west and becoming a Duck. “First day where you’re picking, take him,” said a third scout. “He’s one of the cleanest prospects. Tackles well. Extremely good athlete. Smart, tough, competitive. You run out of adjectives. He doesn’t have a whole lot of weaknesses.” Went 41 inches in the vertical jump. His 18 reps on the bench press led the position. Arms were 31 3/8. “Poor man’s Harrison Smith,” a fourth scout said. “Just because he’s smart, athletic, tough and around the ball. I’m not sure if he can play man-to-man coverage. He’ll be a short-to-intermediate defender and a good zone defender.” Finished with 306 tackles (10 for loss), eight picks, 14 passes defensed and two forced fumbles. Also returned nine punts for 7.4. “Not a bad tackler,” a fifth scout said. “He’s just not very strong so there’s not a lot of knock-back. It’s more drag down. You know, wrap-drag down. There’s some clips where he gets run over. Everybody, if you stick your head in there enough, you’re going to get run over. He’s not a big, strong, physical safety. He’s more of that athletic (safety) who’s good in coverage and OK in run support. He does (run the show).” Two-time All-Big Ten academic honoree. “He’s like the guy the Bills took two years ago, Cole Bishop, but even Bishop was a little better athlete,” a sixth scout said. “Bishop’s struggled. You don’t see Thieneman flying to the ball. Very limited with his movement and change of direction. Really struggled in coverage. Not much range, no man cover ability. In zones, he can drop to spots. He makes calls. You see him out there yelling at people making calls. Kind of wanders to get there in the run game. Not a starter.” From Westfield, Ind.

Minnesota Vikings 2026 NFL draft picks, biggest needs

Top three needs C, S, WR

Ryan Kelly’s retirement left the Vikings without an obvious replacement at center. Backup Michael Jurgens started three games last season, and the Vikings converted guard/tackle Blake Brandel to start five more, but it’s unclear whether either is a long-term answer.

The Vikings are also considering how to replace veteran safety Harrison Smith, who at age 37 has yet to decide whether he will retire. And though their top two receivers are set with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, they have no proven depth after Jalen Nailor’s departure to the Raiders. Tai Felton, a 2025 third-round draft pick, played only 46 offensive snaps last season.

Are the Vikings One of Two Teams Potentially In the Mix for Kenny Moore?
…

Dailynorsemanrssindex

Message History

Delivery option(s)