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Website title: CXO Advisory - Stock Market Research and Investing Strategies

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The possibility that a bond issuer may default drives the credit risk premium, the average difference in return between such a bond and a U.S. Treasury security with matched duration. The possibility that interest rates may vary drives the term premium, the average difference in return between long-duration and short-duration bonds. How have these two......

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Do forecasts of U.S. deficits and debt portend doom? In their November 2025 paper entitled “Then and Now: A Look Back and Ahead at the Federal Budget”, Alan Auerbach and William Gale estimate future U.S federal deficits and debt. They consider three views of deficits and associated debt (see the chart below): Unified deficit... Keep...

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How many stocks truly drive U.S. wealth creation? In his March 2026 paper entitled “One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets”, Hendrik Bessembinder computes investment outcomes for the full lifetime of each publicly listed U.S. common stock over the last 100 years in two ways: Buy-and-Hold – compounded percentage return with dividends reinvested.... Keep...

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Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 4/6/26 through 4/10/26. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list.......

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...data from the past 41 years indicate little or no contemporaneous relationship between the equity market and the residential real estate market. There may be a weak, inverse, multi-year relationship between home appreciation and stock returns.

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