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The very strong El Nino appears to have hit its peak earlier than predicted a few months ago, suggesting a substantial weakening later this autumn and winter.
Let's begin by looking at the sea surface temperature differences from normal (called anomalies) for two critically important areas in the central tropical Pacific: the Nino 3.4 and 4 areas (see map...
The media recently reported on oceanic Kelvin waves and their connection to El Nino. See samples below.
Some of the information is correct; some is problematic or exaggerated (samples below).
Normally, temperature decreases with height, and for good reason.
The sun's rays warm the surface more than the atmosphere above; thus, air temperature tends to decline with elevation.
But sometimes the opposite occurs: temperatures are cool near the surface, and warm air is found aloft.
Since this is the opposite of the normal situation, we call it...
We are about to descend a meteorological cliff, with little hope of return.
A transition to far cooler and wetter conditions, with no chance of reversal.
Even worse... this transition is perfectly normal for this time of the year.
Most of the region saw its first frost today.
And it offers a lot to learn from.