Youth sports expectations need reality—and a bigger “why”

Drawing on NCAA participation data, this column urges parents to face the long odds of playing beyond high school and resist the profit engine and performance pressure of youth sports culture. The goal isn’t to boycott sports, but to approach it as family mission and moral formation with grounded expectations.

Youth sports can be an opportunity for family mission and moral formation—if parents embrace reality.
The data highlights how few athletes move from high school to NCAA, and from NCAA to professional leagues.
Your reason for youth sports should be bigger than scholarships or going pro.

By Tyler McKenzie

As I continue my doctoral research on the intergenerational transmission of faith from parent –to child, I had to investigate youth sports culture. No doubt, if you pastor a bunch of young parents like I do, you know this is a top five pressing issue!

Sorry to disappoint you, but I’m not a separationist when it comes to youth sports. I don’t condone the wilderness route of Qumran or the desert fathers. I’m not the preacher who pounds the pulpit and lays on the guilt, “Boycott travel ball!” “Sundays used to be sacred!” I believe youth sports can be an incredible opportunity for family mission and moral formation. But!!! … this only works if parents step into youth sports culture fully embracing that:

Most of its values are opposed to Christian mission and moral formation.
Their kids are probably not going to play sports collegiately, much less professionally.

If parents don’t embrace these two realities, they will lose themselves (and maybe their kids too) to the profit engine, the performance pressure, and the relentless grind. Our obsession and subsequent destruction in youth sports comes when our expectations are not grounded in reality. So … to the data! Let’s ground ourselves in reality.

Data from the NCAA

The NCAA has continued to update an ongoing study they are conducting called the Probability of Competing Beyond High School. Please click the link to peruse the data yourself! It was updated this March, making their findings incredibly fresh. Their title is their core research question—What is the probability of a high school athlete competing beyond high school?

To figure this out, they analyzed two large research studies to see how many students transitioned from high school sports to NCAA sports and then from NCAA to professional sports. The high school figures were taken from the 2024-25 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations. The college figures were taken from the NCAA 2024-25 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report. Since my Engage column is online, I’m going to throw a screen shot of their data table into the article. It compiles their findings in a very readable format.

Men’s sports

First, let’s look at the jump for young men from high school to college. A few things to notice:

For young men, the lowest advancement percentage from HS to NCAA is wrestling (3.0%) and basketball/volleyball (3.6%).
The highest advancement percentage is lacrosse (14.7%) and ice hockey (14.1%).
Baseball is of interest to me because I played in college. The transition percentage is (8.8%). Of 472,598 HS baseball players, only 41,580 advanced to play in the NCAA.
How about football! It’s of interest to my community. The school system my children are in has one of the best football programs in the state of Kentucky. First, notice that football has the most HS males playing at 1,029,588. Only 83,794 go on to the NCAA (8.1%). Only 3.4% play Division I, 2.1% play Division II, and 2.6% play Division III.

While we are on football, let’s chase it from NCAA to the NFL. Here is another chart.

Out of 83,794 NCAA football players, only 18,621 were NFL draft eligible.
In the 2025 NFL draft, there were 257 draft picks, all of whom were former NCAA athletes. That is a 1.4% advancement rate from NCAA to NFL.
Additionally, 249 of these athletes were Division I FBS and 8 were Division I FCS. There were zero football athletes in Division II or III to advance.
Of these 257 draft picks, the SEC had 79 picks, the Big Ten had 71 picks, the ACC had 42 picks, and the Big 12 had 31 picks. This totals 223 of the 257 picks. Point is, if you hope to go pro in football, you better be a star in a Power Four conference.
Big picture? From 1,029,588 HS football players to 257 kids drafted is a 0.02496 chance to go from high school to the NFL.
That’s roughly 1 in 4000 HS football players. It’s about 100x more likely that your kid gets into Harvard than going from HS to NFL football. They are 40x more likely to have a net worth of $10,000,000+ than going from HS to NFL football. They have about the same chance of winning $50,000 in a state lottery as going from HS to NFL football.

Women’s sports

Next, let’s look at the jump from HS to college for young women.

The lowest advancement percentage from HS to NCAA was volleyball/tennis at (4.0%) and basketball (4.7%).
The highest advancement percentage from HS to NCAA was ice hockey (32.1%) and Lacrosse (14.0%).
Track and Field is of interest to me because all my sisters did it. It was the highest percentage of participants for women at 513,808. Only 33,519 make the jump to the NCAA (6.5%).

Let’s go back to our chart showing advancement percentages from NCAA to professional sports.

Women’s basketball is of interest. Of 16,823 NCAA participants, only 3,738 were draft eligible. Of that group, only 30 were drafted into the WNBA. That is a 0.8% chance to go from NCAA to WNBA.
Big picture? From 356,240 female HS basketball players to 30 drafted. That means there is approximately a 0.008421 chance they will make the jump from HS to WNBA.
That’s about 9 out every 100,000, which is 3x rarer than the HS to NFL jump.
Being struck by lightning at some point in your lifetime is roughly 1 in 15,000, which makes it slightly more likely than making it to the WNBA. Giving birth to quadruplets by natural conception is around 1 in 10,000–15,000, which are very similar odds.

You better have a better why

I hope your kid goes on to play professionally. I hope they are a star! I hope they make millions! I hope they remember this wonderful magazine called Christian Standard when they make their millions. But to conclude, they probably aren’t going pro. They probably aren’t even getting a scholarship. Unless, of course, they play ice hockey. Then … maybe! But pr...

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