It doesn't mean this storm is a dud as it's far from being over.  However, the brunt of the heavy snows will stay well inland along the East coast with mainly rain for the big cities of the Northeast.

As the southern storm heads up to the NE, our weather for the next 2-3 days should be near perfect for January with plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures.

But we are not done with the cold as the current East Coast upper trough is expected to deepen later this week bringing down even colder air out of Canada.   Note how after our brief warm up, the last part of the week turns really cold again.

The reason highs stay in the 40s is because models indicate over running behind the front with a cold rain here on Saturday with some snow not too far to our north.   But we first focus on the short term.

High pressure at the surface will move over us allowing winds to subside.  Normally with clear skies and light winds, we would expect a rapid temperature drop.  But the real dry air (low dew points) in Texas has not moved over us.  So I expect lots of frost tomorrow morning, but most of us should remain above freezing as NWS indicates.

The South Shore broke out into sunshine this afternoon allowing temps to get near 50.  However, north of Lake P., clouds hung tough and temps stayed in the low-mid 40s.

With winds expected to stay out of the NW, expect little lake effect on the South Shore.  Monday looks sunny with a warmer PM.  Stay tuned!

The bitter cold (30-35 below) is still up over northern Canada, but there has been a gush of milder Pacific air cutting off the main source making it not as cold over the lower 48.   

It doesn't mean there won't be a southern snow storm, but it appears the heaviest amounts will be farther north and east.  

Note how small the area (Lt. Blue) of snow is compared to the rain (Green).  Temperatures are Memphis & Nashville are still 43 indicating the difficulty of the cold air moving southward.  Note Houston & San Antonio are 50 back in the sunshine and that's where we should be tomorrow.  NWS is not expecting any freezing temps tonight.

Our coldest morning will be on Monday with a light freeze on the North Shore.  There will be a rapid warm up before our next front plows through late Wednesday.  

Most of the rains are to our east and winds are switching to the WNW behind the front.  We'll quickly fall into the 40s after dark with mid to upper 30s by daybreak.  Strong winds will make it feel in the 20s so you'll need the heavy coats for one day.  I'll probably bring my plants back outside by midday on Monday.  Stay tuned!  Since our Saints are done, I'm rooting for Cincinnati & Joe Burrow to make it to the Super Bowl.  

The surface map shows the extent of the snow from South Dakota into Illinois.  As Arctic air pours southward into the low, the rains over Kansas & Missouri will changeover to snow that will move into northern Mississippi & Alabama by Sunday.

These are the upper level wind graphics with the top one from this afternoon, the last two valid for Sunday morning.   The is a minor shift to the center of the low on Sunday and that increases chances for some snow flakes mainly over the North Shore .  I grabbed these views from Bruce Katz's 4 pm. broadcast.

Our highest rain chances will come after the noon hour with the cold front plowing through around 4-5 PM.  Note the model has the slight possibility for some flakes after midnight on Saturday into early Sunday morning.  The measurable snow on the ground should stay north of Jackson.

We will be in the warm air sector(70s) for much of Saturday, but the lack of low level Gulf moisture should limit the potential for any strong storms.  The bottom graphic has the SPC's severe risk outlook that has a small area in Florida under level one risk.

You can see the clouds coming down from the NW and we will not see much sunshine for the next few days.  My thinking hasn't changed with morning lows on Monday being 24-28 for the North Shore and 30-35 south.  Saturday morning I'll get the tropical plants in my yard into my He-Shed, but this doesn't look like a hard freeze event since the upper low quickly lifts out to the NE keeping the core of the cold away from us.

Finally, I end on a happy note.  while walking Bailey this afternoon, I captured this picture of my neighbor's (Bernard) tree.  Who said we don't see colors in the South?  Stay tuned!

We have seen a several of weak lows (clippers) dive out of Canada following the modest trough over the East Coast.  But that trough is expected to deepen as a strong disturbance over Seattle rotates down the trough.

I've drawn the main upper flow on the satellite views with storms lined up off the West Coast our into the Pacific. The southern jet stream remains fairly inactive, which is typical of a La Nina year.  The bottom picture has a modest upper trough over the Great Lakes.  But look what the models are forecasting.

They take that modest trough and sharpen it in the middle graphic valid for Sunday Morning, cut off over Norther AL/GA/TN.   That should trigger a surface low down over Georgia with snow & cold air pouring around the backside.   NWS has mentioned that some flurries could make it as far south across parts the the North Shore, but no accumulation is expected.   Our real concern will be how cold will it get here on Monday morning?  Righ now I'm thinking 25-30 on the North Shore with 30-35 south.  We still have time to watch and fine tune that forecast, but it still looks like Saturday (in the warm air) will be the day to prepare your yard for the coming cold.

Across the nation, not much is happening yet, but that will change as we head into this weekend.  Our dew points are quiet low (dry air), but with clear skies and light winds, some frost could form especially away from Lake P.

After a mostly cloudy Wednesday, Thursday & Friday will see abundant sunshine.  Note the coming cold blast will not hang around very long.  A warm up begins on Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of another cold blast coming for late next week.  January is often an exciting time of the year weather-wise for south LA/MS and this weekend will live up to that past history.   Stay Tuned!

There is currently a "modest" trough over the east with a "modest" ridge over the Rockies.  The eastern trough has ended the December warmth bringing back more typical January weather so far.   But look at the upper air forecast for the next week to 10 days.

The top graphic is from this morning followed by the forecast valid for Thursday morning, followed by valid for Sunday morning. Note how the trough sharps slightly on Thursday resulting in colder air returning to the Great Lakes & NE.  Then on Sunday there is a strong upper disturbance that triggers a surface low over southern Georgia.  This (if it proves to be reality) will produce measurable snow from north Mississippi, Alabama & Georgia to significant snows 8-12"+ across Tennessee & Kentucky eastward.  It could go up the East coast as a Nor'Easter?  But there's more as Lee Zurik says...

 Early next week, the trough is predicted to deepen (top graphic valid next Tuesday) and that will drag down the super cold (35-40 below zero) into the lower 48.  IF the upper trough is that deep, it is likely to drag down the freezing air to the Gulf Coast for early next week.  We have several days to watch this scenario and I will put out the alert so you have time to winterize your house & yard.  This weekend might be a good time to do such chores.

A cold surface high is extends from the Northeast down into the Gulf with the core of the core staying well to our north.  There is a weak upper disturbance producing clouds and some cold rain over Texas. 

I don't expect much, if any rain reaching the ground here since our dew points are so low (dry air).

If the clouds don't break until late in the day on Wednesday, highs could struggle to get out of the 40s like the 48 at San Antonio.

Clouds will decrease overnight, but once to our east, sunshine returns, along with warmer temps for Thursday & Friday into early Saturday.  Then the bottom drops out and it could be even colder than what's predicted for Monday & Tuesday.  Should be an interesting 7-10 days.  Stay tuned!

 

These pictures were taken around noon when their temperature was 22.  Gotta love the views topography creates.   Can't do that here where it's all flat land until you get north of Lake P.   So what is going on?

An upper trough has developed over the Great Lakes & East coast bringing down the bitter cold from Canada.  Since that trough hasn't kept digging southward, the core of the brutal air will stay to our north and east.

There is another cold front coming south, but all it will do for us is keep to temperatures below normal for the next 2-3 days.  Note how dry (low dewpoints) the air around us is.

Lots of sunshine spread in behind last night's front, but it won't last.   A weak disturbance is streaking across west Texas and will make for some hazy sunshine on Tuesday.  As the clouds arrive later tonight, they should keep lows from getting down to freezing except way north of the Lake.  

Frankly, if you're dressed for the chill, it feels refreshing outside and that feeling will hang around until the weekend.  Our next front will move through late Saturday bring some showers and more cold air for next week.  Finally, some satellite views...

On the top pic, the yellow line points out the snow cover from Colorado to the Great Lakes.  The next view is showing the Great Lakes "snow machine" created as Arctic air flows over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes.  And the last two show how in only once week, the Bay of Green Bay went from no ice to almost totally frozen over.  More bitter cold is coming, so until the Lakes are frozen over, Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it...well you know the song.  Stay tuned!

The top graphic is the current Sunday SPC severe weather outlook with the middle graphic explaining the risk.  The bottom pic is the recent Tornado Watch for SE Texas.   What has happened is there has been a surge of moisture and warmth coming out of the Gulf around the backside of a cold high pressure system.

I've put arrows on the satellite view that shows the T-Storms casting shadows indicating the taller tops. Radar views have captured the explosive growth in the storms with numerous tornado warnings issued.  Houston's dew point has shot up to 70 as they are in the warm air sector.  My concern for Sunday is we will also get into the warm air sector with highs around 80 ahead of our next strong cold front.  Based on what has developed to our west this afternoon, we should pay attention to the weather tomorrow as our severe risk could increase.

As the surface high along the East coast shifts out to sea, another cold blast is moving southward out of Canada that will take us from shorts on Sunday back to Winter weather gear for most of next week.

In the short term, tonight will be breezy & very mild with lows in the 60s (above our normal highs).  Sunday will be stormy at times with many sunny breaks and dry hours.  The greatest threat for strong storms comes later in the day.

Finally, the long range models are hinting that we'll have several opportunities for freezes (even on the South Shore) later this month.   I'm saddened because I know what that means to my many plants.

The colors of my hanging bougainvillea's remain brilliant with my top hat begonias and Crown of Thorns looking great.  My variegated ginger plants are nearing the top of my 6 foot fence.  Alas, that's the cycle of the seasons.   I'll do my hack and whack after the freezes and then watch Mother Nature heal with the warmer weather of Spring.

And for you cold air & snow geeks, I didn't forget you.  Look at these satellite views of the cold air pouring  over the Gulf stream off the East coast behind yesterday's snowstorm.  The tighter pics reveal the snow on the ground with northern Virginia (including D.C. ) covered with white while southern VA. getting all rain.  I love how the topography shows up.  Look at the finger lakes popping in New York.  Do ya miss it?  Hey, if we can get into the deep cold later this month, and a low develops down over the Gulf, who knows...it could happen here!!!   Yea, and the Saints will win the Super Bowl!   Saints 31 Falcons 17.  Who Dat!  Stay tuned!

Today was a chilly day as we only reached 52 (normal/average high 62) after a morning low of 42 at MSY.   Our next front arrives late Sunday when we could see some heavier Showers with a rumble of thunder.   Right now, SPC is giving us a low risk for a strong storm.  The top graphic is valid for Sunday.

Satellite views find a large cloud shield returning northward on the back side of a cold surface high.

The coldest air is over the Great Lakes & Northeast while Denver is warmer than us this afternoon.

Another fast moving "clipper" is diving across the northern Plains with more snow and cold.  That will drag more cold air southward for us for the first part of next week.  Right now, it doesn't appear we'll need to worry about a freeze south of Lake P., but there's plenty of cold over Canada.

Finally, several days ago the Mississippi River at the Carrollton gage fell to 3.50 feet.  Recent rains & snow up north have a huge surge coming down river.  Note the current reading is approaching 5 feet and is forecasted to reach 9.5 feet in another 10 days.  This will cause no problems for most of us, but river pilots will have to pay attention , as they always do, to a faster current later next week.  Also, thanks to all of you who pointed out that many of those caught in the recent snowstorms up north HAD to go to work or school .  Many families live paycheck to paycheck and can't afford to lose that money.   I understand that.  My point was for those who choose to be out there when they didn't HAVE to be out there.  Love your comments Gang.  Stay involved and stay tuned!

The other pics are courtesy of The Weather Channel showing another massive 75 car/truck pileup.  What don't people understand in this day of modern social media?  A Winter Storm Warning was in effect BEFORE the snow arrived, yet people were on the roads placing themselves in harm's way.  Don't blame government (DOT) for not clearing the roads.  Take some personal responsibility and use common sense.  Geez, no wonder forecasters get frustrated knowing you've made a great prediction but the results are often tragic.   

Note the lack of traffic on Jim Cantore's live shot from Nashville where they had 6=7".  This is not rocket science folks.  Heed the warnings from NWS whether it's Winter Storms or severe weather (tornadoes).

We almost made 80 again out ahead of the cold front.  It came through around 3 pm with a thin band of showers.   The cool down will be fast, but will not last.

The reason for that is the main storm track plows into the West Coast and streaks SE across the country.  The bitter cold (15-20 below zero) air stays over the Great Lakes and NE while we get passing glances of the Chill.  Until we see a bigger dip in the trough over the East, we will not have to deal with freezing temps. south of Lake P.    But hold the phone Clarence.  Look at these upper air maps.

The top one was from this morning showing a minor dip coming across Wisconsin & Iowa.  That is what's triggering today's snowstorm.  But look at hold much deeper and well defined that trough gets 2 weeks from now (Polar Vortex?).  IF that proves to be reality, then we'll need to be ready for some real potential pipe busting cold.   Plenty of time to watch it.

In the short term, the cold front blasts through tonight requiring sweaters and jackets on Friday.  By the core of the cold quickly retreats for Saturday and Sunday allowing us to soar back into the 70s.

That warm up will be brief as another cold front arrives late Sunday chilling us down for the first part of next week.  December may have been warm and boring, but January is proving to be a refreshingly different month.  I'm enjoying having lots to talk about.  Stay tuned!

This pattern brings us some cold air, but the coldest of the cold remains up in Canada and over the northern states.   IF a big dip in the jet stream develops over the eastern states, we would see those frigid temps visit the Gulf South.

Our next front will arrive midday on Thursday with highs soaring into the 70s before quickly falling into the upper 40s by dark.  Don't leave home without a coat.

Despite very little sunshine, temps have approached 70.  Over night lows will stay in the 60s tonight as southerly winds are back for awhile.  Strong north winds return by Thursday PM.

The seven day clearly has a roller coaster ride from the 70s to the 50s back to the 70s, back to the 50s.  Yikes!   Get use to it Gang.  It's called WINTER!  Stay tuned!

I grabbed these graphics from Bruce Katz's weather program.  Note the North Shore and away from the Lake south will likely see freezing temps. I am not protecting any of my plants except for the ones (hanging baskets) I took in yesterday.

The cold front has just about cleared the Gulf all the way down to the Yucatan.  You can see the extensive cloud cover that has developed over the Gulf.

With the center of the surface high moving right over us, winds will decrease allowing for temperatures to approach the dew points , which are in the 20s north and 30s south.

As the surface high shifts farther to our east, you can see the warm up coming on the backside (western) of it.  Note,  even the Rockies have moderated from the super cold (below zero) air of the past few days. 

There's still plenty of cold up in Alaska (45-50 below) and in Canada (20-30+ below).  Another front comes late Thursday with yet another coming early next week.

Finally, some snow pics from up north.  It's always nice to see the snow on the ground after the clouds have cleared.

one band streaks out of Colorado to the Great Lakes with the southern band from norther Alabama to the NE.  The bottom 2 views are of the ICE FREE Great Lakes that clearly show how December was not very cold.  Even Green Bay is ice free!  Will the next 2-3 months change that?  Stay tuned!

This will not be a night to let the water running, except far North Shore.  The usual "Lake effect" will not be as pronounced since the winds will be 20-30+ from the NW.  Wind chills will make it feel like the 20s everywhere so heavy coats are required if going outside.  The reason for this airmass being so cold can be seen in the satellite views that reveal an extensive snow cover from the Rockies to the Great Lakes.

I've hatched in the clouds with the rest of the white being snow on the ground.  It's easy to tell up over Iowa as the rivers pop out.

This is a true Arctic outbreak with temps in central Alaska 40-50+ below zero.  It won't linger as the core of this blast will quickly retreat by Tuesday PM.

It also is a very dry airmass as you can see dew points in the teens to our west.  If you're dressed for it, the next 2 days will feel great, typical January Winter weather.

With the upper trough moving and not digging, the cloud cover will quickly leave us before daybreak making for sunny skies for Monday and Tuesday.  A warming trend begins Tuesday afternoon and continues into Thursday before our next cold blast arrives.

We actually should welcome these minor freezes as they will help control our bug population, but more importantly, cool down the Gulf waters.  Just as long as a "Polar Vortex" doesn't develop and bring us temps in the teens & 20s.  Always need to pay attention when Super Cold (40-50 below) air forms up north.  Hopefully our Saints will somehow pull out a win despite missing so many O linemen.  Stay tuned!

The reason the cold is finally coming is the West coast upper trough has moved into the Rockies and will head to the East coast pulling the Artic chill with it.

Note the zero line is down to near Omaha as this is the coldest airmass of this Winter season.   There remains a severe threat along the boundary between the warm and cold, but the highest threat is well north of us.  

North Louisiana is under a tornado watch, but most of the energy is already north and east of them.  A few showers have developed around us, but no severe storms are expected.

The daylight hours on Sunday will see highs 30-35 degrees colder than today's lower 80s.  The strong north winds will add to the bite making being outside uncomfortable without the heavy weather gear.  Finally...

For all you cold weather geeks who love the white stuff, there is nothing prettier than freshly fallen snow.  These pictures are from around my son's (Rob) house in Longmont, where 3-5 inches fell overnight.   It looks pretty...unless you have to drive in it.  #1) you have to clear the driveway, #2 then you have to clear the windshield & windows before #3) you drive on snow/ice covered slippery streets.  I did it in my "youth", but the little fella has no desire to try it again in the "Winter of my life!".   Be satisfied with the chill for the next 3 days.  We don't need the white stuff.  Stay tuned!.

If you zoom in, you can see nothing is left but chimneys.  Also note that the few trees remained standing and green.  This was a grass fire, not a forest fire.    I've set up a 4 hour sequence of satellite views that captured the explosive growth of the smoke plume.  The top view starts around noon with the next 3 being one hour apart.  Note the shadow casted on the northern side of the plume.

The cause of the fire apparently was sparks from power lines downed by 100+ mph winds. Yikes.

These are current views from my son's (Rob) house in Longmont.  If only the snow could have come yesterday before the fires.  Since they have not had any rain or snow for weeks, the grasses were brown & dry, perfect fuel.

The long stalled upper trough off the West coast is on the move bringing down a new surge of Arctic air.   That airmass will plow into unseasonably warm and humid air over the SE creating the potential for a severe weather outbreak on New Year's Day.   SPC has highlighted the area most likely to see bad storms.

The timing for us brings the highest rain chance after 3 pm and before midnight with the cold air pouring in before Sunday daybreak.  

We easily shattered another record today.  My backyard temperature gage recorded almost 85  on this last day of the year.  That's way too warm and has my grapefruit tree sprouting new leaves.  I think most of us will welcome the cooldown coming.  Seeing that the core of the cold will stay to our north, I am not doing anything yet in my yard.  We'll have another day to see if any protection is needed on the South Shore.  Those of you who live north of Lake P. can expect a freeze for Monday morning.  Finally,

It's another sad way to end 2021.  Betty White passed away at age 99, 17 days shy of reaching 100.   What a classy, funny lady she was.   She was great on  the Mary Tyler Moore sitcom, but I laughed the hardest on Golden Girls when she acted naïve to Blanche's sexy lady role.  Sad that she's gone, but happy I was able to enjoy her long career.  Update on the coming cold tomorrow PM.  Stay tuned!

Despite being very dry for the past 3 months, we will still finish the year as the second wettest ever.

All of today's big storms have moved into Georgia leaving us dry with many sunny breaks that resulted in us breaking the record high of 81.  Tomorrow & Saturday will flirt with more record warmth before the pattern changes early on Sunday.  We'll go from Spring warmth to heavy coat weather in a matter of hours.

We still have the main storm track/upper trough along the West coast that has brought rain and snow to many locations.  As the upper trough finally kicks out and heads to the East coast, the cold will follow.  Sunday's highs will be before dawn (in the 60s) will dive into the 40s for most of the day with strong north winds. Freezing temps. will cover the North Shore on Monday and Tuesday, but the South Shore should stay in the mid to upper 30s.

SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is already sending out the alerts for several weather potential ahead of the cold front.   The top graphic is valid for Friday with the next for Saturday.  It appears our most likely time for any strong storms will be after dark on Saturday into early on Sunday.

We still have 2 more very warm days and I'll discuss  tomorrow what I will do in my yard ahead of the approaching chill.  It appears the core of the real cold will stay to our north and we'll see a quick warm up midweek.

Finally, as that strong disturbance over California kicks out to the east, it's creating very strong (100 mph+) down slope winds in Colorado.   A fire started and spread like crazy forcing evacuations orders for 2 cities. (Louisville, Superior).  If you can see a fire on satellite views, you know it's a big one.  The next 2-3 days will see some wild weather as the clash between warm & cold is enhanced by that strong western disturbance.  What a way to start the New Year!  Stay tuned!

I've drawn the West Coast trough that has been in place for weeks with several lows bringing much needed moisture to California.  Look at the below freezing temps to the coast at Seattle and Portland with most of California in the 40s!

The upper ridge over the SE has blocked most of the cold air from us, but that's about to change.

The top graphic is today's upper flow with the next being valid for Sunday morning.. Note the dip over the Southeast that will bring the chill.  However, that dip won't dig and will quickly lift out allowing a rapid warm up by mid next week.

So in the short term, the cold air stays to our north as the current upper energy triggers some strong storms north of us.

As the next upper disturbance approaches late Friday, there could be another round of severe storms as SPC indicates for Friday.

With brisk south winds over night, temperatures will be around 70, well above the average/normal low of 47.   But the cold will arrive before sunrise on Sunday with full Winter weather gear needed for three days.   Models are hinting an even stronger cold blast coming for late next weekend.   Bottom line, January will be much colder that December, and for many that will be OK.  Stay tuned!

I grabbed the top graphic from Bruce that shows we will be flirting with record highs for another 4 day, but then the bottom drops out with highs next week struggling to get out of the 40s and freezing temps coming to the North Shore.  So what's changing?

Finally the upper pattern will be shifting with the western trough redeveloping over the East & Great Lakes.   That will tap the super cold (35-40 below zero) air over Alaska & Canada and bring into into the lower 48.

You can see how much of the nation had a cloud cover today with lots of snow from Minnesota to New England.  You can see the sharp temperature contrast behind the front with many locations below zero across the northern Plains..

With such clashes of air masses (Note the 70 dew point at Jackson), we will have the slight potential for severe weather on Wednesday.

We have several bands of showers with some thunder rumbling by tonight.  The higher chances for strong storms will be with the cold front Saturday evening.  So even though I like this warm early Winter weather, for the greater good, I'll be happy to see the big chill and it gives us the opportunity to weather sweaters and heavy coats again.   Finally...

 I love fishing with Captain Hylton as we usually catch some fish.  But in addition, I really enjoy the sunsets & sun rises.  The top pictures are the old fort at Shell Beach with the bottom being todays sunrise.  It's Mother Nature at her finest.  Stay tuned!