Bob Brecks Blog

Nicholas Heading Out Of Louisiana, Rain Threat to Linger...

Sat, 18 Sep 2021 00:42:35 +0200

The weak cloud circulation leftover from Nicholas is lifting across north Louisiana and will drift into Arkansas before dissipating. Unfortunately, there remains a lot of tropical moisture over the northern Gulf and we continue to have an upper trough over eastern Texas.

A lot of drier air has rotated around Nicholas with the heaviest storms NNE of the center and along the LA/MS coasts.

There is the possibility that the band of heavy rains along the coast could move back over us, so NWS is keeping the Flash Flood Watch in effect through Sunday. If we're lucky, that band will stay to our south & east with only the typical pop up storms bubbling up during daytime heating.

In the Tropics, NHC named the 15th storm (Odette) off the East coast. It is heading out to sea and will affect no one. The other disturbance that should become Peter is way out in the Atlantic so we need not talk about where it might go.

Saving the best until last, we still have another 4-5 days of hot & humid weather to endure, but the long awaited REAL cold front is coming on Wednesday sweeping away the humidity and actually making us delightfully cool into next weekend. October is almost here. Stay tuned!

Nicholas Finally Saying Goodbye

Fri, 17 Sep 2021 03:45:28 +0200

I'm running out of things to say about Nicholas, and most of you I'm sure are sick of him too. This will be a brief post since the tropics haven't changed and nothing is really developing. Satellite views show the weak remains of Nicholas around Lake Charles.

Dryer air wrapping around the south side actually brought us some sunny breaks today allowing some spots to get back above 90. Radar views confirm Nicholas is slowly dissipating, however an upper trough over Texas will keep our shower activity above normal into the weekend.

It should be a mostly dry night except along the coast. All is not lost as we look ahead into next week.

As you can see the next four to five days you will be dodging showers, but there is hope by Wednesday a cold front might actually bring us some dryer or cooler air for late next week. Yippee, even before October arrives the good feel air is coming. Stay tuned!

Nicholas Remains a Rain Threat, But Not Life Threatening...

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 16:49:55 +0200

Until we get a weak cool front mid next week, we're stuck dealing with the remains of Nicholas, now just a weak swirl on satellite views and hard to find on radar due to the lack of rain around the center.

The center is somewhere around Lake Charles, but you can't see that on the radar returns. What I'm seeing on satellite is a slow drift to the WEST. My concerns today and tomorrow is that the area of T-Storms down over the Gulf doesn't shift back towards us.

Right now, NWS is placing the threat for heaviest rains (2-4"+) from LA into NW FL. We should see some sunny breaks today, but there will be more tropical downpours, especially south of the city.

You can see that on radar this morning while all of SE LA/MS remains under a Flash Flood Watch. The Tropics remain active as NHC is following multiple areas for development.

The wave in the central Atlantic will be the one to watch for NEXT week. We want a turn to the north so it doesn't head into the Gulf, but it's far too soon to know that. The other system off the East coast will not be our problem.

So keep the rain gear handy and try to cope with repairs during our late Summer heat & humidity. Stay Tuned!

2021 Has Moved into the Top Ten Wettest...Oh Joy!

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 02:36:30 +0200

Yea like someone has to tell us this year has been wet? Today's 3.13" at MSY boosted us into the 10th spot on wettest years...but we still have 3 1/2 months to go!!! We currently are at 76.20", and with only another 3" will leap frog into the top 5. I'm sick of talking about Nicholas but he just won't go away. Today he has hardly moved staying over SW LA. That keeps us on his wet side, although most of the storms have been blown/sheared to the east.

It appears most of tonight will stay dry, but with the center of Nicholas stalled over SW LA. storms could redevelop later tonight offshore and move inland before daybreak.

The top photo showed the sunny breaks from this afternoon with the second placing where what's left of Nicholas is still spinning. Like Harvey in 2017, he stalled, but unlike Harvey, Nicholas never had the well defined structure of a major hurricane so 2 day rain totals have been generally 3-4" with some totals up to 8". The color pic has the boundary just off the mouth of the River that extends down to the SW. That's where we have to watch for redevelopment late tonight & on Thursday. So why is Nicholas stalled?

His circulation has been left behind as you can see on the surface map, the Bermuda high, that steers storms around it, has backed off into the Atlantic while a cold front has become stationary over the Ohio Valley. You can see another front up over Montana and that might get here by Wednesday of next week. Until then, the 7 day is pretty useless as nothing will be changing. Look for above normal clouds, many shower periods with heavy downpours, but some dry hours. No real cool relief until October. Stay Tuned!

Nicholas Is Officially Gone, But His Impacts Still Linger...

Wed, 15 Sep 2021 18:29:16 +0200

I know all of us are depressed by all the clouds and rain from Nicholas, especially after trying to repair/recovery from the fury of Ida. It's not what we needed or wanted, but unfortunately there is no strong cold front in sight to clean out Nicholas' lingering moisture.

Look at the extensive cloud cover along the Gulf coast from Texas to Georgia that is not going anywhere very fast. What we don't want to see is the cluster of storms down in the central Gulf to our south start working back to the north. I don't think that will happen since we have a surge of drier air coming in from the west that has shifted the heavy rain threat to our east.

So if you live from the LA/MS line eastward, the heavy rain threat will continue. based on radar views, very few showers will be around NOLA for this afternoon.

What is left of Nicholas' circulation is a swirl between Lake Charles and Lafayette. He is no longer a wind threat, but his tropical moisture will linger into this weekend. We may have a weak front arrive for mid next week, but it will NOT bring any real cold air.

Mid September is still the heart of the Hurricane Season and NHC is following several areas for potential development. The one coming off of Africa has a high chance (90%) for development.

It is so far away that we will have many days to watch it. The next named storm will be Odette. However, that could come from the disturbance off the east coast.

The good news there is that it will not affect the Gulf. We could be following Odette & Peter during the next several days. I'm ready to call this Hurricane Season quits. ( 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major) Those numbers are the 30 year average for an entire season with 6 weeks before November. We've had enough misery for two years in a row. Mother Nature needs to give us a break and keep the storms elsewhere. Can I have an AMEN! Stay tuned!

Nicholas Drifting Slowly Towards Louisiana...

Wed, 15 Sep 2021 05:02:19 +0200

The center of former Hurricane Nicholas, now weakened to a Tropical Depression, is right over Beaumont/Port Arthur staggering towards the Louisiana border. Most of the heavy rains have "decoupled" (separated) from his center, but there still remains a threat for heavy rains over the eastern side of this system. Satellite views show that "decoupling" tonight.

The only bright (cold) cloud tops are over central Louisiana and southward off our coast. It's the ones over the Gulf we need to watch IF they keep developing and form "training bands" by daybreak tomorrow.

I'm placed where Nicholas is tonight along with the potential bands off our coast. You can see the ill defined center near the Sabine River and I'd like to see that head northward overnight and NOT head eastward as NHC is thinking. The farther away from us, the better.

So assuming the NHC track proves accurate, the heavy rain potential has been extended farther to the east along most of the Gulf coast.

David once again had some excellent graphics depicting the heavy rain threat on Wednesday.

It's difficult to go against so many model forecast, but David did show the dry air spreading in from the west on the water vapor loop.

With so much dry air spreading in, it's hard to understand how we could get such predicted high rain totals. As David just said..."I'm erroring on the side of caution". Hopefully the models are overplaying the heavy rain threat? Stay tuned!

Nicholas Barely A Tropical Storm, Rain Bands Separate From Center...

Wed, 15 Sep 2021 00:01:49 +0200

I remember during my working career it was the slow moving storms that really drained me. The Hurricane threat lasted for days, and with Isaac's stall along the mouth of the River, I actually lost 6 pounds in three days. Physically whipped and emotionally drained, I needed more than a chardonnay or two to recover Nicholas moved inland well before dawn but has only staggered slowly to east of Galveston.

NHC's future track brings Nicholas into western Louisiana at a crawl only reaching Alexandria by Friday. That keeps the heavy rain potential high all along the Gulf coast from LA. to FL.

I'm not sure another 6-10" is realistic since the main rain bands around Nicholas have been blown (decoupled) to the east away from the surface center.

You can see in the bottom photo all the brighter cloud tops way away from the center (arrow) that is still in Texas. Radar confirms a drying trend is coming for most of us that may last for many hours.

It has hardly rained in Houston all day despite being so close to the center. That drying trend is getting close to NOLA.

Notice what the clouds & all day rains have done to temperatures. It's a rare day in mid September when we stay below 80. Unless some storms form around Nicholas, I'm hoping models are overplaying our rain threat the next couple of days?

There is a cold front to our north, but it has no support to push it much farther to the south. Note the 40 &50s dew points have moved over the northern plains where the air feels great. We're stuck in the muggies for the rest of this week.

Finally, NHC is following two areas that might have tropical potential. Fortunately neither will be our problem.

We'll have many days to follow them. No model is showing a threat in the Caribbean or Gulf during the next 7-10 days. Stay tuned!

Nicholas Has Moved Inland, Now Just A Rainmaker...

Tue, 14 Sep 2021 17:01:00 +0200

Fortunately, the eye of Hurricane Nicholas reached the coast after midnight making it (according to Jim Cantore) the 19th landfalling storm in the last 17 months. Whew, that is an active 1 1/2 years! As he moved inland, his winds have quickly decreased and the main threat for the next several days will be rainfall.

Last night David showed one model that kept the center of Nicholas east of Galveston over water making landfall in Louisiana. But the actual track ended up close to where NHC was predicting, well west of Galveston and just to the east of Houston this morning.

Nicholas did become a hurricane before landfall, but never did it have the rapid intensification like Ida. That's because it often had multiple centers competing against each other. In fact, that's still the case this morning as I placed an L where there is the mid to upper level spin that is pulling away from the low level center east of Houston.

All of the heavy rains/storms have pulled well east of the surface low that appears to be just east of Houston.

Even this morning, it's difficult to see a well defined center on the wind arrows/barbs. I'm guessing it's right over Baytown? Note the strongest winds are south of Lake Charles off the coast. So the main threat for the next 1-2 days will be heavy rainfall over south Louisiana and Mississippi.

NHC is painting a large swath of 6-10" from Lake Charles over NOLA to Gulfport. As long as it's stretched over many hours, it should not create any major flooding issues. Some have said this could be a "Harvey Scenario". Let me explain why that won't happen.

When Harvey reached the coast, he was a classic "doughnut hole" satellite presentation. His eyewall was well defined and took 3 days to finally dissipate leaving rain totals over 60+". Nicholas never did have that eyewall presentation and we have very little rain around his center. If the mid level circulation continues to pull to the east away from Nicholas' surface center, we could see our rain totals less that what is predicted.

The best thing that could happen today and tomorrow is the upper disturbance moving over the Great Lakes picks up Nicholas and pulls it north and east away from us. That is not the current thinking and it's why we'll probably have 2 days of rainy weather before we see a drying trend later this week. This is not what is needed as workers try to restore power and repair homes. Next post after 4 PM. Stay tuned!

Nicholas Reaches Hurricane Force As He Hugs Texas Coast...

Tue, 14 Sep 2021 05:31:44 +0200

Based on Recon data that saw significant pressure drops and buoy reports gusting to 80+ mph, NHC has upgraded Nicholas to this season's Hurricane. Satellite views are not impressive, but there are several bursts of bright (colder) cloud tops around what appear to be multiple centers. Some of those swirls are probably mid level around the storm and it's the Recon data that pinpoints the real center.

The radar presentation remains lop sided with the heaviest to the north and east with very little to the south and west. David has a slew of great graphics on FOX 8 at 9 PM. The ones that are concerning are the model wind gusts that keep the center of Nicholas offshore from the Texas coast making landfall in Louisiana around Lake Charles.

IF that track proves correct, it will bring tropical storm wind gusts into the metro area on Wednesday challenging our power grids once again. OK the new track is in and it is not good for south Louisiana.

NHC continues to insist that the eye of Nicholas will make landfall in Texas, but what if it doesn't like David showed? That would mean stronger wind gusts are coming our way. The other change is NHC almost stalls Nicholas as a depression over SW Louisiana keeping us on the wet side. Here's there newest center line track that stalls/slows down NW of Lafayette.

If David's model is correct and Nicholas stays farther to the east, look for that map of tropical storm force winds to shift towards us tomorrow. They haven't increased their rainfall predictions, but if it slows as they indicate, these totals may be too low.

There is dry air wrapping around the western and southern sides, but the wet side is producing drenching tropical squalls.

So our main concern will be the heavy rain threat that David showed will be greatest on Wednesday.

You can see the heaviest( 10-20") is to our west, but we have some 8-10" over the eastern end of Lake Pontchartrain. Nicholas will not be Ida, but he will cause us addition troubles on top of what we're dealing with now. Stay tuned!

Nicholas Nearing Hurricane Force & Nearing Upper Texas Coast...

Tue, 14 Sep 2021 00:21:42 +0200

Let me begin by stating that Louisiana does not need to evacuate for a Tropical Storm or weaker Hurricanes except for areas outside Levee protection. Tropical Storm Nicholas will make landfall far enough to our west that even those outside levee protection will be OK. NHC in their discussion continues to mention multiple centers although on radar it appears one center is taking over as he nears the coast.

Some of his circulation is impacting the upper Texas coast and it's a matter of hours before the center makes landfall SW of Galveston (GLS).

Nicholas is a much weaker storm compared to Ida. His main impacts will not be destructive winds, but heavy rainfall. The rainfall totals have been decreased compared to yesterday, but over SE LA/MS, they have increased.

If you look at the upper photo and check the rain scale, you can see the rain forecast is 1-3" along the coastal locations, 4-6" over the South Shore and 6-10" over parts of the North Shore. My feeling is that only happens IF we see "training rain bands" set up around the weakening circulation. The track is pretty set as he reaches the coast. What we don't want, but the models predict, is a slowing down of Nicholas. So why would that happen?

As you can see on the surface map, the high has pushed off the East coast allowing for the current northward motion. But look at the satellite picture. I've circled the disturbance moving along the jet stream across the northern plains. That system doesn't appear likely to pick up Nicholas and take him away from us. Instead he's left behind in weaker steering that will have him linger over Louisiana for several days. That's why the main impacts for us will be the heavy rainfall. If spread out over many days, that would normally not be a problem. But with so many structures in various states of repair, any rain is not welcomed right now.

We do see fewer storms once we get what's left of Nicholas away from us. I do not see our next real cold front coming for the next 7-10 days. Sorry. Stay tuned!

Nicholas Struggling To Find A Center Making Forecasts Difficult...

Mon, 13 Sep 2021 17:17:26 +0200

Tropical Storm Nicholas has a large cloud signature on satellite views, but he doesn't have the classic rotation around a well defined center. In fact, it appears he has multiple centers with the newest one forming to the NE of the latest location.

If the northern L is the new center, that would mean Nicholas is moving faster and NHC now says motion is northward at 12 mph. He is an "east side loaded" storm with very little rain to the west. Radars are seeing most of the action remains offshore.

Due to the increase forward motion, NHC has lowered the total rainfall forecast as they don't expect Nicholas to stall like Harvey did back in 2017.

What you can see is they have shifted the 4-6" area farther to the east over most of SE LA. That is over three days and it's not what we need with all the repair work going on. Here's the newest track from NHC.

Looks similar to last night's with all of south Louisiana staying on the wet side.

The center line track shifted back to west of Houston at 4 AM, but it's shifted back to the east with the latest advisory. Since Nicholas does not have a well defined center, trying to track that center line is pretty useless. Look at what Zack Fradella just showed on FOX 8.

So before you dump on the forecasters, you must understand the uncertainties of Mother Nature. In the words of Tim Floyd..."never ignore the obvious". What appears easy often is not when a storm is not behaving according to the models. What we do know is Nicholas will be a heavy rain maker for us, but not today. The strongest winds will be along the upper Texas coast.

Don't be surprised to see Nicholas briefly reach hurricane force before landfall. What I'm hoping continues is the faster forward motion as that will limit how much rain we get Tuesday thru Thursday. I'll post again after 4 PM. Stay tuned!

Models Do A Flip Flop Back To The East...

Mon, 13 Sep 2021 05:41:07 +0200

Tropical Storm Nicholas has NOT strengthened tonight. In fact, the recon flight had difficulty finding a well defined center. This afternoon, they relocated the center farther to the north. Tonight they relocated the center farther to the south. The result is, Nicholas has been nearly stationary SE of Brownsville, TX.

He certainly doesn't look very good except for a recent burst around the so called center. If you have followed pervious posts, you know this afternoon's models shifted farther to the west while tonight's has gone back to the east. Here's the 10 PM NHC forecast track.

The biggest difference is the shift in track after it moves inland on Tuesday. The new tack turns more back into Louisiana bringing the heavy rain threat closer to us...IF that trend continues. Let's look at how the center line track has shifted in the last 3 advisories.

The top map is from 10 AM taking the center over Houston. The middle is from 4 PM shifting west of Houston. Tonight's 10 PM map is on the bottom with the center line back over Houston. What does all that model UNCERTAINTY mean to us? With weaker storms, models preform poorly early on and you must not believe the future path is guaranteed. With a nearly stalled system, that often signals a change in future path. We need to remain focused on Nicholas, not as a major wind threat, but more on a heavy rain threat later this week.

Note the bullseye (15-20"+) is still on Houston, but that could shift into Louisiana IF the track comes closer than predicted. We could have 2-3 days of heavy rainfall so do your best to protect any damaged property from Ida.

My take from tonight is UNCERTAINTY. We'll have several more model runs to see if this eastward trend is locked in. What bothers me is how the models turn the storm back into Louisiana on days 2 & 3.

A slow moving storm across central or north Louisiana keeps us on the WET SIDE. It's not what we need after Ida. Stay tuned!

Nicholas Looking Better Organized, Shifting Farther To West?

Sun, 12 Sep 2021 23:20:02 +0200

I'm watching the start of the Saints game while I await the 4 PM advisory. Here's what I'm seeing so far. There are several areas that have tropical potential, but they are far away so we focus on what's in the Gulf.

It appears to me, especially on the color IR, that Nicholas is getting better organized with T-Storms concentrating around the center. I expect NHC will increase the max. wind speed on this next update.

Some good news is the spaghetti models appear to have shifted farther to the west AWAY from us. That would be really good news if it's correct. Especially since models are saying this will be an extreme rainmaker.

The top view is the Euro rain estimate indicating 1-2 feet or more along the upper Texas coast with the bottom being the GFS which is less aggressive, but still in the 10-15" range. Here it is, the 4 PM advisory from NHC.

On first glance it appears the track is the same from this morning. But let's check the center line track.

The top graphic is from this morning while the bottom is from 4 PM. Clearly there has been a shift WESTWARD by about 20 miles. IF that trend continues, it means the main impacts will stay well to our west.

The main wind impacts are aiming for the upper Texas coast. And that is where the heaviest rainfall is projected.

NHC is not as aggressive as the Euro, but 15-20"+ around Galveston with 10-15"+ around Houston will cause lots of issues. So to recap...Nicholas has NOT increased in max wind speed (40 MPH) and is moving at a good clip (NNW @ 14). His track has shifted slightly to the west and that should mean SE LA/MS will get little impacts except maybe 1-3" of rainfall over several days. Let's see if that trend continues later tonight. Stay tuned & go Saints!

Nicholas Forms In Extreme Southern Gulf...

Sun, 12 Sep 2021 18:21:16 +0200

As mentioned by NHC, satellite views and Recon reports indicates we have the newest (14th) Tropical Storm way down in the Bay of Campeche. It is forecast to move over the warmest waters of the Gulf and could be a hurricane before landfall on Monday or Tuesday.

There are clusters of T=Storms on the colorized IR that indicate Nicholas is still disorganized, but that is expected to change. The NHC's track forecast brings the storm towards the upper Texas or SW LA. coasts by early next week.

So we're back to following that center line track forecast. RIGHT NOW, it is projected to be WEST of Houston and that would keep the winds and heaviest rains away from us IF it proves correct. We don't want to see any eastward trend in later advisories as that would bring increasing threats/impacts to us. Concerning with this track is the slowness of Nicholas as it makes landfall. Look at the small movement from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM on Friday. That would suggest Nicholas will become a super heavy rain threat for some.

The wind threat appears more likely for Texas, but look at the larger heavy threat. Amounts greater than 10-15" extend into SW LA. Any eastward shift in the track will shift that rain threat closer to us. Since this is the first advisory on Nicholas, let's not think/let down our guard regarding the UNCERTAINTY in the track. Better for us would be a westward shift. Of course any eastward shift bring the dangers closer to us. SW LA. hasn't recovered from Laura & Delta and we all know what Ida's impacts did to us. So let's keep an eye on that center line to see if a trend develops.

The top view shows an upper low heading towards Florida that models try to develop into the Carolinas. Not our problem as we will focus on Nicholas. Low level gulf moisture (dew points 70+) have returned and radar is indicating lots of rain spreading northward ahead of Nicholas. If you going out this afternoon, take your raingear. I'll post during the Saint's game on FOX 8 after the 4 PM update. Stay tuned! and Who Dat! Saints 34 Pack 31 !!!

Increasing Chances For West Gulf Disturbance...

Sat, 11 Sep 2021 23:34:51 +0200

Earlier today, NHC labeled an area over the Yucatan as Invest 94 L and that started computer model runs based on a guesstimate center. Satellite views are hinting of a broad circulation and I'm seeing at least three small swirls that I drew in with an L.

Since we don't have a real center to follow yet, let's not assume the early model projections that take the bulk of the heavy rains to our west. That would be nice, but any shift to the east brings us into a heavy rain threat for many days just as recovery/repairing continues in Louisiana.

Whatever forms (TD or TS), it'll bring lots of rain with it. RIGHT NOW, the heaviest (10-15"+) area is from Lafayette to west of Houston, but that will probably change. For us the best scenario is the Euro that brings a closed low west of Houston by early on Tuesday.

The GFS (bottom graphic) brings the cventer right over Houston. The farther west it goes the better for us. We should know more by this time tomorrow. But that's not all that's going on in the Tropics.

There are several swirls out in the Atlantic that could become named storms. But those are way far away so let's focus closer.

NHC is highlighting ar area east of Florida for possible development later next week. If that happens, it should head towards the Carolinas. Back home, we are saying goodbye to the good feel air.

With the surface high now to our NE, the Gulf moisture is returning. Dew points in the 50s are now back into the 60s with the 70s coming for most of this week. There is a front bringing some cooler air into the northern Rockies, but I don't see any fronts coming for this week.

You can see some showers south of our coast with lots of smoke just to our north. That smoke is causing hazy sunshine for a good part of the nation. We're still almost hot, but the main change coming is we're going back to daily showers.

This will hinder recovery efforts and church tomorrow should include prayers for those displaced and those involved in the efforts to get them home. We hope everyone stays safe. Stay tuned!

Another Gulf Disturbance Coming?

Sat, 11 Sep 2021 16:25:24 +0200

As many of you know, NHC has increased the possibility for tropical development in the western Gulf from 70% to 80%, meaning it's gonna happen. They are basing that on computer model runs that have been consistently showing development. Let me point out, there is NOTHING there yet. Here's what we do know.

Louisiana is enjoying the dry, slightly cooler air north of a dissipating frontal boundary in the Gulf, (top photo) There is a large upper high over Oklahoma that will move to our north and east during the next 3 days. I've placed an L where I think there's a small swirl over the Yucatan this morning. NHC has designated this Invest 94 L allowing for some early model runs.

RIGHT NOW, the models suggest the target for heaviest rains will be the upper Texas and SW LA coastal locations with the potential for 10-15"+ rainfall amounts. Obviously, we don't want that to come here. These are the over night model runs.

The top is the Euro that is more bullish on forming a Tropical Storm moving inland near Corpus late Monday into Tuesday. The bottom graphic is the total rainfall with the bullseye heading towards Galveston/Houston. That would be better for us. However,

The GFS model is way less aggressive at developing a storm, keeping 94 L an open wave but spreading more of the heavier rainfall farther east into Louisiana. Which will be correct? Maybe neither and 94 L heads into Mexico south of Brownsville. Until a real center is located, it's way too early to speculate. Whatever does happen, it's clear our rain chances will return by late Sunday into next week. Repairmen need many more days/weeks of dry weather, but that's not going to happen. Finally,

I've shown you pictures of the large tree next to my He=Shed that Ida crashed down on my back fence. I'm happy to report that Clarence, my crown of thorns, was battered but not killed by the storm.

These are before (top) and after views. Note the top photo has the height way above the mid window line (5+;). I had to cut off the top portions as Clarence had become top heavy and Ida just bent over the higher parts. Doesn't look pretty yet, but give the old guy some time and he'll be blooming again by October. I'll post again this afternoon. Stay tuned!

Oh What A Feeling...But It Won't Last...

Fri, 10 Sep 2021 23:39:10 +0200

Going outside this morning, I couldn't help but remember the Irene Cara hit song from back in the 70s. And that feeling will be back again later today as the sun sets and especially tomorrow morning at daybreak. However that feeling won't last as the low level moisture returns on Sunday and next week could turn rainy. But let's enjoy this brief Fall preview.

Oh it's still almost hot here, but look at those dew points in the 50s! Unfortunately, you can see the clouds are not too far off our coast and it won't take much to get them back northward.

Look at the smoke on the satellite view in the top photo. The western fires are still roaring waiting for the rainy season to begin, which is many weeks away unless you're in Oregon or Washington. One would think based on the Climate hysteria from the news media, that this MUST be the worst fire season ever? Hardly...

I read the current acreage burned (not included on graph) is 86% of the average year going back into the the 1920s. Look how many more acres were burned back in the 20s & 30s. What has changed during those past 90 years? People invaded the West and began building their homes deeper and deeper into the forest. But you never hear that. Or how about more violent tornadoes because of global warming?

Nope, the trend is downward. I realize the graph only goes to 2018, but the past couple of seasons have continued the trend of fewer violent (EF3+) tornadoes. Well then, certainly the past 4 seasons of major hurricanes has to be because of Climate Change?...at least that's what the politicians & media are pushing. Before 2017, the U.S went almost 12 years (a record) of no landfalling major Hurricanes. The past 4 years does NOT say it's climate change as hurricane frequency and landfall location are cyclical.

Am I missing something? Do you see a rising trend? I do see a rising trend in the number of named storms during the past 20-30 years. What could be causing that? Must be global warming?

Not according to a NOAA report that indicates it's VERY LIKELY technological change is the reason. (Better satellites, better Recon instrumentation) Well look what Ida just did to us and NYC. One would think that has never happened before? Wrong.

Back in 1955, Hurricanes Connie & Diane brought "record rainfall" to the Northeast killing even more than Ida.

And what about Camille in 1969. Sure she pounded the LA/MS Gulf coasts, but look at the stripe of 20"+ rainfall across PA. into NYC. Clearly the data shows the 30s, 40s & 50s had way more stronger (Cat.3+) storms than now. What was causing that? I just want you to think Gang. Or how about what just happened in the Western Pacific.

The Western Pacific (WestPac) is the most active tropical basin on our Planet. However, it just went 47 days (the whole month of August!!!) without any named storm. I thought we were supposed to see more frequent and intense storms? Hey, climate change is clearly happening (always has) and man is contributing to an extend just because we have so many more people on Earth. However, our current warming CYCLE will not go one forever IF the past history (geology) can be believed. Right now, there are many climate modelers (brilliant minds) that believe that will happen and I agree we should try to mitigate man's impact. However, we must not reduce the standard of living for that to happen.

We have to talk about the Tropics where I see several swirls out in the Atlantic. NHC is only talking about the system coming off of Africa while ignoring the circulation in the middle of the Atlantic. Closer to home...

NHC has raised the area over the southern Gulf to High (70%) for development. Watching TWC point out the UPPER low in the Gulf, what I see is a low level swirl south of central America. Personally, I think that will be the system to develop. With the upper low over the Gulf, that is a hostile environment with lots of wind shear RIGHT NOW.

Both "reliable" models show not much development by Monday. The top graphic is the GFS that brings a glob of moisture into SW LA. with a small swirl by Brownsville. The bottom two are the Euro that takes the moisture more into Texas (Houston). obviously, Louisiana doesn't want any rain right now. With the MJO going into phase 4 (unfavorable-sinking air), I'm hoping the models are correct on little development. Regardless, even a strong tropical wave can bring heavy rains. Let's just hope most of the rains stay to our west next week. Stay tuned!

Conflicting Information Regarding The Tropics...

Thu, 09 Sep 2021 23:15:27 +0200

Now that Larry will turn away from the U.S and the short lived Mindy is gone, wouldn't it be nice if the Tropics took a rest for several weeks right during the, historically, peak activity of the hurricane season? Well, that's what the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is telling me as it's heading into the unfavorable (sinking air) phase. That is NOT the thinking of NHC.

They are highlighting 2 areas for development, one off Africa and the other in the Caribbean. Let's begin in the Atlantic.

I've circled two areas of spin out in the Atlantic. The westward one NHC doesn't seem concerned about while the other moving off of Africa will turn to the north and not be an issue here.

The area NHC thinks might develop is just a tropical wave right now. However, models seem to be following something by early next week. The middle view is the Euro that has a closed circulation just north of Corpus Christi. The bottom is the GFS that isn't as bullish but bring rain into Texas and SW LA. I hope the MJO doesn't allow anything to develop for several weeks. Hard to expect at this time of the year.

In our favor is our first real Fall front that is bringing much drier air down to the Gulf South. This airmass should push well offshore and block any Gulf moisture through Saturday. Early next week we'll see our shower chances return.

With dew points dropping into the 50s, you'll notice a different feel in the air tomorrow morning. Daytime highs will still be almost hot, but the humidity will be lower.

Watch the northerly winds increase as the sun goes down. As the cooler air moves over Lake Pontchartrain, it will accelerate to the 15-20 mph range. Oh what a feeling in the morning!!!

Finally, now that skies have cleared, we can see the affect of Ida on Lake Pontchartrain. Look how muddy the Lake is (arrow). It should slowly clear as we have 3 dry days coming. Oh, almost forgot.

Since we've been focused on Ida, I haven't mentioned the western fires. They're still there as the smoke plume spills across the Rockies into the Plains. Stay tuned!

Tropical Depression # 13 Forms in NE Gulf, Might Become Mindy? And It is!

Wed, 08 Sep 2021 23:09:52 +0200

As I mentioned in my special morning blog post, a swirl off the mouth of the River has become better organized and buoy reports on its eastern side are now gusting to near Tropical Storm force. The only question now remaining for TD 13, is there enough time left over water (6-8 hours) for it to be named Tropical Storm Mindy. I hope not as that would trigger the hurricane deductible on most homeowners policies.

I've circled the larger UPPER low over the south central Gulf with the smaller surface low SW of Panama City. You can clearly see the circulation on radar that keeps getting better defined as it approaches the coast. Most of the heaviest rainfall will be from Destin eastward. This will be a short lived storm as NHC indicates. Well, well, NHC takes Invest 91L right to Tropical Storm Mindy. It is NOT our problem.

What is more exciting for us is the first real Fall cold front will sweep through during the day on Thursday. Dew points will dip into the 40s & 50s resulting in cooler over night temps north of Lake P. Since the Lake water temp is in the high 80s, the cooling will not be as exciting south of the Lake.

With such lower dew points coming. I'm thinking widespread 50s will be the case on the North Shore for Friday & Saturday. FOX 8 is more conservative.

Locally, 80% of us have been dry as a few showers bubbled up.

With so many repairing structures, stringing lines for power, this front is just what we need. We'll have many days of sunny & dry weather and not so hot. Finally,

Hurricane Larry has weakened to a Cat. 2 and will stay well east of Bermuda & the U.S. The bottom photo is from 51 years ago this month, when 22 year old Bob Zabrecky (my birth name) accepted his medal for expert rifleman at Marine base Camp Pendleton. Out of a platoon of 65 guys, only one made expert and that was the little Fella! Semper Fi Gang! Stay tuned!

Is Depression Forming SE Of Mouth Of River?

Wed, 08 Sep 2021 15:57:13 +0200

This is just a heads up to pay attention, especially if you have plans to go to the beaches next 2 days, that a tropical depression maybe forming SE of the mouth of the Mississippi. Satellite and radar views are indicating a swirl.

The Gulf remains in a hostile environment for development as I've drawn in (yellow) the upper low that is creating lots of wind shear. The surface (Red) low is already east of the mouth so most of the rains will stay away from us and head to the beaches.

NHC has increased their chances for development to 50%, but they must not be concerned since no Recon flight is scheduled. Radar clearly shows the mass of rain going east of Mobile Bay. As this weak feature goes by, the circulation on the backside from the north will bring in much drier air for tomorrow. Fortunately we need not worry about Invest 91 L even if it becomes a TD. Will post later today. Stay tuned!