Hey, I understand this is a weather/hurricane blog, but when those in politics absolutely alter the facts, I must call them out.   I feel sorry for those of you whop live in Orleans Parish since there is zero accountability for those in power.   Now back to the weather.

The upper trough is clearly over the Great Lakes and that is bringing arctic air into the lower 48.

Sunshine does make a difference as you can see on the satellite view & 4 pm temperatures.  

Long range models are indicating the cold will only get worse as we get into mid-December.  There will be a brief warm up ahead of the next stronger front for next week, so let me give the Orleans Parish management team a "FIRST ALERT".  There could be strong storms coming for Saturday.

Note the cold coming for next week.  Stay tuned!

Stay connected to friends & family Gang.  Enjoy each moment, each day like it might be your last time together.  Weather-wise, we are going into a much needed dry spell after the 4-7" of rainfall the past 3 days.

the main jet stream has several minor dips farther to our north as the southern jet shifts farther down over the Gulf.  Without any major East coast upper trough, the real cold arctic air stays up over Canada.

With drier air (lower dew points) filtering in, you'll notice a different feel to the air most of this week.

With nothing happening the next few days, time to go fishing with Captain Hylton.  I'll post again late Tuesday.  Stay tuned!   Oh, don't feel sad about our Saints. This is not the kind of team that was robbed (Minnesota, Rams) of getting back to the Super Bowl during Drew Brees prime era.  Want to watch a fun offense?  Watch the 49ers!

 There is still one more upper disturbance back over Oklahoma & Texas, but once the trough gets to our east, we'll see drier air flow in for several days.

A cold front will stagger through overnight, but there is no real cold air behind it.

The core of the cold will stay to our north, but you'll notice a different feel to the air next week as humidity will be lower.  You'll need sweaters & coats again.

Finally, here's some graphics from Hannah Gard's morning programs.  Yesterday's rainfall broke a record at MSY with another 2+" today.  The rains since midnight were heaviest from City Park eastward, especially along the Mississippi Coast.

So, once the current line of storms is by us, much of this afternoon will just be cloudy, muggy with a Spring-like feel and an isolated shower.   Hopefully, by Sunday afternoon we see some peeks of sunshine?  Also, hopefully our Saints will perk up and tame the Lions?  Saints 31 Lions 27.  Who Dat!   Next post tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

I've drawn the upper split over the satellite views and you can see the colder/higher cloud tops (orange & red colors) over the eastern Gulf corresponding to the surface radar returns.  Note how a new area with lightning is forming along he upper Texas coast.  That's our next wave of rain coming later tonight with yet another arriving for later on Saturday.

until that upper trough shifts to the East coast, we're stuck with the SW upper flow that will slow the weak frontal boundary over Texas from blowing across the northern Gulf.

During the day on Sunday, some slightly cooler & drier air will overspread our state making for several nice days heading into next week.

So my concern tonight focuses on where the training of storms sets up.  The NWS rain graphic has the heaviest rainfall totals south of Lake Pontchartrain, while Nicondra showed a heavy rain graphic that put the North Shore with the heaviest.  Perhaps it'll be BOTH sides of Lake P.?!!!

Bottom line, all of us need to pay attention tonight & Saturday IF you plan on traveling around.  This includes the Mississippi Gulf coast.  Let's not be caught with our guard down.  Have your FOX 8 weather app updated and keep the phone nearby in case warnings are necessary.  I'll update again tomorrow morning.  Stay tuned!

Nicondra showed us a graphic at 4 PM that suggests the heavier amounts will be to our west and north of Lake P.  The bottom graphic is the NWS amounts. Below is the satellite view with the low over Texas and the warm front coming out of the Gulf.

So if you're going out this evening, take the rain gear.  The first rain wave races by tonight with the next coming late Friday and another early on Saturday..

The timing may change and Friday will see many dry hours.  Here's the timing from Amber Wheeler.

The rain should move away on Sunday with a dry spell coming for next week.  

No real cold air follows until later next week.

So when you see the FOX 8 First Alert, it is mainly for the POTENTIAL heavy rainfall, not severe storms during the next 2 days.  Stay tuned!

You can see SW Louisiana is in the level 3 risk tomorrow, but SPC lowers that risk over us to level 1 (marginal) for Friday.  There are several limiting factors for development with the biggest being the weakening upper energy coming from the California low.

Yesterday the low was well defined with lots of clouds and showers west of San Francisco.  Today it's west of Los Angeles with fewer clouds and only a couple of showers.  The other critical factor is the lack of low level moisture as dry air lingers along the norther Gulf coast.

I've drawn the frontal boundary over the satellite view showing south Texas is near 70, but dew points only in the 40s & 50s with 30s over us.  Over time, our dew points will rise, but by then the upper energy(western low)  that triggers storms will have raced way to our north.   Bottom line, most of Thursday will be dry here with some moderate to heavy showers Thursday night lingering into Sunday.

Nicondra showed the model timing at 4 PM with the bottom graphic from the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) that has one bullseye over SW Louisiana and along east of Mobile.  My gut tells me we'll see 1-3" of rain spread over 3-4 days with the heaviest being over the North Shore.  So don't let all the hype get to you.  I see no reason to be more anxious just because some rainfall is coming.  We need it.

As the upper low lifts to the north by Saturday, that stubborn SW upper flow will stall the front near us, so don't expect much sunshine as we head through this weekend.  That also means no real cold air will return either.

 

Our next shot at real cold air arrives NEXT Wednesday.  We started below freezing on the North Shore with near freezing away from the Lake south.  Everybody recovered into the 60s this afternoon.

As winds turn back off the Gulf tonight and tomorrow, much milder air will be around in the morning continuing through the weekend.  So expect periods of rain arriving late Thursday lingering off & on into Sunday.  Should be no big deal from what I'm seeing now.  We'll give it another look tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

After a chilly start, warmer air will allow us to soar back into the 60s tomorrow & 70+ for Thursday & Friday into the weekend.  With warmer air comes the potential for stronger storms and heavy rainfall.  Right now, SPC keeps the severe threat west of us on Thursday/Friday with the upper energy pulling away to the north.  Models have be trending downward on the heavy rainfall shifting the heaviest now to the northern Florida coast over the next 5 days.  Ch. 8 has a First Alert for the Thursday through Friday time period as the cold front is likely to stall.

Here's the the reason for why our weather pattern will flip from dry & chilly to warm & wet.  A Pacific storm will bring energy combining with Gulf moisture to give us the potential for 2-3" of rain.

Low dew points (20s & 30s) cover all of the Gulf South and it will take some time for the return flow of moisture to deepen to increase rain chances.  Here's the model timing Nicondra used at noon.

Will that be enough to end our drought?  No, but it will sure put a big dent into it.  Remember, unlike western states that need the winter rains & snows to refill their reservoirs, we have the Mississippi River as our source.  What the winter rains here & farther north do is help out in raising water levels and increasing river flows pushing the salt water wedge back into the Gulf.  The next question might be, will 2023 end up as our driest year ever?  Let's take a look.

Our current year to date rainfall is 30.35" or 8.53" short of the driest ever.  *.53" would make for a wet December, but the bottom graphic shows that wouldn't make the top ten wettest.  My thinking is we'll end up in the top 3 driest, but we have a good shot to be the driest.  Something to watch.

The coldest air so far this Fall has plunged over the Great Lakes and eastern states.  The Great Lakes snow machine is fully turned on.

Tuesday & Wednesday here should be dry with filtered sunshine before storms arrive late Thursday into Friday.  Nicondra gave us the time line at 4 PM.

The front could stall over the northern Gulf lingering the rain chances into Saturday & Sunday.

Temperatures could be near freezing north of the Lake on Wednesday morning, but some clouds will keep any hard freezes away.  Finally...

We've heard a lot about coral reefs this past summer.  Check out the colors in the reefs in my son's (Justin) fish tanks in Oklahoma where he's growing corals for his saltwater colorful (expensive!) fish.  It is a lot of work, but his base degree is in Marine Biology.  Great hobby!  Stay tuned!

After I read him a book on my final night, he said, "Pops, I wish you and BeBe lived closer."  It broke my heart as I knew I had to come home.   Thank goodness we have Portal/FaceTime.

The top satellite view shows the snow on the ground just north of OKC.  The upper pattern has shifted with the trough over the Great Lakes bringing the coldest air of this Fall season into the lower 48.  The core of the cold will stay to our north and east, but parts of the North Shore could approach freezing Tuesday & Wednesday mornings depending on cloud cover.

The lower cloud deck has left us, but some high, thin cirrus will make for filtered sunshine tomorrow. Highs today approached 70, but it'll be back to coats & sweaters for the next 3 days.

While I was on the plane leaving the terminal at OKC, the pilot got on and said we will have a slight delay so the ground crew can de-ice the plane!  I knew I had to come home!  Stay tuned!

The orange circle is where I'm seeing the splitting of the upper winds.   The radar returns are indicating the current storms over Louisiana will stay well north of Lake Pontchartrain and that is where SPC & The Weather Channel's TorCon (Tornado Conditions) index places it.

How ironic it is that today's greatest severe threat is right where November climatology (bottom map) says it should be.  I'm hoping as the upper energy lifts farther to the NE, it'll take the strongest storms away from us.   So what we want to be watching this evening is back to our west.  Will we see a squall line develop?  Not seeing it yet.

So here's the timing from the model Nicondra used at noon.

Of course, timing may change.  but what I'm seeing is the greatest/best chance for severe weather will be between 11 PM & 4 AM.  Since most of us will be sleeping, make sure your FOX 8 Weather App is all set up in case warnings come out.  FOX 8 will stay on the air as long as the danger exists.  

That split today is over Texas & Oklahoma, but will shift into Louisiana tomorrow.  So why do we have no T-Storms breaking out yet?   Blame it on lack of Gulf moisture as seen in the dew points.

But that will be changing as the return flow from the Gulf is rapidly increasing.  You'll notice a different feel to the air on Monday.

This could turn out to be a powerful storm coming out of the Plains heading up the East Coast on Wednesday.  That could really impact travel plans for Thanksgiving for many.  here's the timing for us.

Hannah Gard showed the computer model bringing us strong storms after dark tomorrow.  Most of the activity should be gone before daybreak on Tuesday.  Make sure your FOX 8 Weather App is updated with all alerts on if warnings are issued.  Check with Amber Wheeler tonight at 9 PM for the latest model update. It will turn much colder behind this front. 

The weather question for Thanksgiving is, how far will the front get into the Gulf before stalling?  We could see a cold rain shield spread northward over us making for a cold Turkey day.  Stay tuned!

That severe threat will depend on how close the upper energy comes to us.  

The top graphic is the current upper air flow with the western trough near California, with the bottom valid for Tuesday morning.and the energy centered over Oklahoma.     That's pretty far south and means we need to pay attention late Monday.  Of course that's a ways out and much can change.

The cold air is building over Canada and it'll head southward as the eastern trough develops.  It'll be noticeably colder behind this next front.

Weather is all about timing and right now after midnight on Monday into daybreak on Tuesday appears to be the best chance for strong storms.  We have time to watch it.  Enjoy your Sunday.  Stay tuned!

The top view is the current surface map with the middle being valid for Saturday morning.  Note the absence of any cold air behind this front.  It will bring us drier air and more sunshine that should allow highs this weekend to be in the mid to upper 70s.

The core of the cold air with the first front will be up over the Great Lakes & Northeast.  SPC indicated early this morning that there might be the potential for severe weather on Tuesday with the stronger front.  This afternoon SPC has backed off the severe threat.

However, let's not let our guard down as Tuesday is still 4 days away.  We would like more rain, but we don't want any severe storms.

 The top view was 3 PM yesterday with the bottom being from today.  We have this low level cloud deck that is trapped across much of the South and might linger into parts of Friday.  But we do have weather to talk about as south Florida overnight & this morning was hammered by near hurricane force wind gusts and 6-10" of rain.  Watching The Weather Channel this morning and a fella said "I can't believe it wasn't a Tropical Storm".  On radar, it sure looked like a tropical storm.

There was an obvious circulation (In fact multiple swirls) on radar, but why wasn't it named a Tropical Storm?  1) It was a "cold core" system as an upper trough was approaching from the west.  That same trough brought us welcomed rains, but the surface low with it never developed over the cooler northern Gulf waters.

Another swirl was over Tampa Bay bringing needed rainfall to central & north Florida.  So the impacts were like a tropical system, but it was caused by a cold core upper trough.  That's what happens during the Winter over the Northeast.  Bottom line, impacts are impacts whether cold or warm core.  We do have a disturbance over the much warmer waters of the central Caribbean.that NHC expects to become Vince by tomorrow.  I'm seeing a mid level swirl near Jamaica with a cluster of storms farther to the SW.

Despite the warm waters, upper winds do not appear favorable for much development.  For now, NHC is calling this PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) # 22.  The official track keeps it well east of the U.S. So what's the other big story?  How about a cold Thanksgiving?  there's plenty of cold over Canada.

But the current upper flow will not allow that chill to come southward until next week.  I grabbed the bottom 2 graphics from Zack this morning indicating the western upper trough shifts over to the East coast bringing us a much cooler air mass.  Just watched Nicondra and her newer graphics have the front stalling along our coast, which might keep us with a shower chance on Thanksgiving.

Since most of us will be inside on Thanksgiving, it should be no big deal.

You can kind of see that the heaviest amounts will stay down over the Gulf with most of us seeing 1-2" at best except down along the coasts.  So why won't we see the heavier rains?

The upper support appears to be there with a disturbance over west Texas lifting to the northeast.  There is a frontal boundary draped along the northern Gulf but, as Nicondra showed us at noon, that surface low will remain far offshore keeping the really heavy rains well south.  Here's something else to think about.

Where's the cold air?  The frontal boundary is to our south, but look how it's actually warmer to our north under sunny skies.  We're lacking the temperature contrast to really get a potent system going.  But that's OK since our gentle, steady rainfall will soak into the ground instead of running off.  

So we have another 24 hours+ of rainfall to go, IF you believe in the computer model.  Bottom line, this system may not be a "drought buster", but it will cut into the short term dryness.  It's just what our lawns & gardens needed. There will be some impacts for communities along the coast & outside the levee protection system.

The strong easterly winds will bring some higher tides and minor flooding so pay attention.

Once this surface low pulls away & sunshine returns, our temperatures rebound back to 70+.  I don't see any strong cold front coming before Thanksgiving.  Finally...

NHC, based on computer models, keep calling for a named storm later this week and head towards Jamaica, eastern Cuba & Hispaniola.  They're trying to get two more storms since that will complete the list of names for Hurricane season 2023.  Stay tuned!

There is currently a stalled surface front over the western & northern Gulf.  A strong upper disturbance in Mexico is lifting towards the northeast triggering a wide area of moderate to heavy rains.  That will move across Louisiana & Mississippi Monday & Tuesday with totals of 2-4" of much needed rainfall.

There is no really cold air except up in Canada, so once this low passes and the sun returns later this week, temperatures will bounce back to 70+. 

Hannah Gard showed us this morning that the Gulf low will be a slow mover with showers lingering into Wednesday.

So look for the next 2-3 days to be breezy, cool with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.  Those strong easterly winds will result in some coastal flooding during the high tide cycle.  finally...

NHC isn't giving up on one more named storm somewhere down over the central Caribbean.  Nothing is there yet and that idea is based on computer model forecasts.  Regardless, it will not be a problem for the U.S. as strong WSW upper winds will carry it off to the NE.  Try not to let the Saints get you down as the weather will be enough to give us that sad feeling.  Stay tuned!

So let the rains begin and, if you believe in the models, we're going to see the most rainfall in over six months.

It won't be all at once with some coming this weekend, and as Amber Wheeler showed us at 4 PM, the heaviest will be with a Gulf low next Monday & Tuesday.  That's when our highest rain chances arrive.

When is the last time you've seen 100% chance for rain?  The next 7 days look cooler, but not cold as the main jet stream stays to our north and we remain under a Southwest (wet) upper flow.

The forecasting challenge will be the timing of the rain surges.  One is coming this evening.

That system should pull away during the morning hours on Saturday so much of the day should be dry into Sunday.  The real heavy rains hold off until Monday & Tuesday.  NHC is still trying to get in one more named storm for next week.  Water temperatures over the northern Gulf have cooled into the 70s and that SW upper flow will keep anything away from us.

Satellite views have nothing there yet, but computer models (especially the GFS) is forming a hurricane heading towards eastern Cuba.

The top graphic is valid for NEXT Friday with the bottom next Sunday.  Note how whatever forms (Vince?) goes to the Northeast away from the Southeast U.S. Coasts.  Finally...

Today is the Marine Corps 248th Birthday. Semper Fi!  Saturday is the official Veterans Day that our nation designates to say THANK YOU to all who keep us safe.  I salute all Veterans for your service.  Stay tuned!

Clouds have increased and widespread showers are breaking out along and ahead of a slow moving cold front.  That front will stall just to our south this weekend giving us the potential for 2-3" of rain during the next 7 days.

The main jet stream is over the northern tier of states, but the southern stream (sub-tropical jet) has become active as expected during an El Nino Winter.  You can clearly see the 20-30 degree temperature contrast either side of the cold front.  Of special; note is the near 70 dew points surging over Texas & western Louisiana.  With deeper low level moisture colliding with the shallow colder air, conditions are se up for several days of over running rainfall.

Much of the extended period will depend on whether a surface low develops early next and brings the heavier rainfall over us as Amber Wheeler showed at 4 PM.

The European is indicating as much as 4-5" of rain over the next 7 days.  That might be too aggressive.  I'd be happy if we get 1-2" with another round coming Thanksgiving week.  Whatever, the next week will not see much sun and noticeably cooler temperatures.  After all, we're in Fall.  Stay tuned!

The city smog of the 70s was widespread versus this morning's narrow band coming from that stubborn marsh fire.(top view)  The wider view confirms how patchy the fog was and that's what makes it so dangerous.  The bottom view captures the many fires burning from Mississippi into Georgia all because of the lack of rainfall.

I wish I could say changes are coming, but not in the short term.   The bottom radar view has very little rain falling anywhere across the country.  The next 2-3 days will stay warm and dry before a weak front gets close on Friday.

The European model is bullish on the front stalling off our coast and weak disturbances riding along that boundary.  Note the heavy rainfall (4-7") over south Texas with 1-2" amount for south Louisiana during the next 7 days.  that won't happen before Friday.

What the 7 day does show is a cool down from the 80s to the 60s, which is more typical of early November.  But the main forecast concern is more morning fog with the potential for deadly super fog near that marsh fire in New Orleans East.  Stay safe, slow down & stay tuned!