Bob Brecks Blog

Warm Up Before Cold Returns Late Week...

Sun, 05 Feb 2023 23:08:29 +0200

Today's parade weather doesn't get any better as skies are clear, winds are light & temps have warmed to near 70. If only we could bottle this & use it next weekend, but we can't.

The next 3 days will see the warm up continue before another cold front arrives late Wednesday into early Thursday. The cold air will come back in surges with Friday & Saturday being windy & uncomfortably chilly. It starts with a storm over California today.

As the upper disturbance approaches, it'll pull a warm front northward out of the Gulf. A few shower could be with that front. The higer rain chances come Wednesday PM into early Thursday as Zack Fradella showed us this morning.

Looking ahead to next weekend has no rain, but very chilly temperatures with daytime highs in the upper 40s & lower 50s with 30s at night. Burrr! Let me show you why.

These are the upper air charts with the top view showing today's West coast trough over California dropping into New Mexico on Tuesday. The bottom is valid for Wednesday with the center over south Kansas. That low quickly lifts out on Thursday.

The top is valid for Thursday morning with the center in Michigan, but do you see the trough digging behind it? That sharpens the dip (middle) valid on Friday which will drive down the cold air. But it shouldn't last long as the bottom graphic is valid for next Sunday showing an upper ridge moving back over us with warmer air.

The below freezing line has retreated way north with a Spring preview coming this week.

It's time for Bailey's afternoon walk and I'm looking forward to being outside. Again, I'm concerned that the cold coming for Friday & Saturday might have to be revised downward as we get closer to the weekend. Very confident that it will be dry & cold. Stay tuned!

Arctic Blast Leaving NE, Rapid Mid-week Warm Up Here, Colder Next Weekend...

Sun, 05 Feb 2023 01:42:29 +0200

Obviously the big weather story over the nation has been the Arctic Blast in the Northeast. Many cities set new record lows including Boston at 10 below shattering their old record of minus 2. The Polar Vortex that brought down the chill has retreated into Canada and a dramatic warm up is coming. I love looking at satellite views of cold air spilling over the warmer waters.

Surprisingly, the records were set with no snow cover on the ground. Remember, most of January has been very mild over the Northeast with temperatures too warm for snow. But changes are coming.

The upper flow is back to west/southwest cutting off the cold air for now and allowing much warm air to surge northward. Our next storm is bringing rain back to California. That system will approach us late Wednesday and, if computer models are correct, will deepen the upper trough over the East bringing a freeze threat for us NEXT weekend.

The good news is parade weather would be dry for Friday through Sunday. The bad news is highs (at best) would be 50-55 with nights in the 30s. Burrr!

In the short term, a weak upper disturbance is moving to our north with some clouds, but that system will race away leaving more sunshine for Sunday. As winds shift back off the Gulf next week, clouds will return along with warmer temperatures.

I'm concerned the FOX 8 forecast for next weekend is not cold enough IF the computer guidance proves accurate. Finally...

The recent rains & snow melt has sent a rise down the Mississippi River that will approach 10 feet next week. No big deal yet, but if we see future heavy Spring rains up north, we might have to worry about high water in late April to early May that might prompt the Corps to think about opening the Spillway again. Hope not. Stay tuned!

Put Away The Grumpy Pants & Put On A Happy Face...

Sat, 04 Feb 2023 00:51:00 +0200

Dr. Rick Knabb on TWC said this morning, "after many days of no sunshine, I've put away my grumpy pants in exchange for my happy face." Clear skies will do that even if it's rather chilly. If you were dressed for it, for early February, today was almost a 10!

Those northerly winds will keep the South Shore much warmer than the North Shore where near freezing temperatures are possible. We should stay 40+ south of Lake P. except for the West Bank and to our SW towards Houma.

As I mentioned yesterday, the core of the Arctic Blast would be over the Great Lakes & Northeast, where many locations will be below zero.

But the cold won't linger, especially across the South. An upper ridge will replace the eastern trough allowing much warmer air to surge northward again.

As the surface high shifts to the east, winds will return off the Gulf bringing back low clouds along with the milder air.

North winds today have push those low clouds well off our coast and Saturday should be another day of bright sunshine. I did find what appears to be a huge fire over by Lake Charles. Hope it's not a refinery fire?

there are several smaller parades this weekend and the weather will be terrific. Hopefully next weekend will be as nice? It appears our next front comes through late on Thursday. I see no real cold air in sight. Finally...

The early morning visible satellite views (before the snow & ice melted) revealed the extensive areas covered from this week's prolonged ice storm. You cold air geeks are asking "why so close?", Why not us? Nah, no thanks. Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!

Brief Arctic Outbreak Coming To Great Lakes/Northeast, But Not Here...

Fri, 03 Feb 2023 00:46:02 +0200

Most of us never got into the warm air sector today, but we came close. Highs in the mid 60s have fallen down into the low 50s as 70+ temps are just to our south. A modified mass of Arctic air is filtering in behind the front and we're back to sweaters & jackets the next 2 days. But see how temps have modified back in Texas. Almost every place is above freezing & their ice storm is over.

Our cool down is nothing like what's coming to the Great Lakes & New England.

The Polar Vortex will dip over them, but not dive down to us. This will keep the core of the bitter cold well to our north & east. Some parts of the North Shore will be near freezing on Saturday morning, but not south of Lake P. The buckle in the Jet stream over the East is caused by a return of storms to the West Coast.

The good news for us is the Polar Vortex will quickly dip over the Northeast & lift out keeping us protected from any hard freezes.

The top graphic is the upper flow with the Polar Vortex from this morning. The middle is valid for Friday morning with the bottom valid for Saturday morning. Clearly, you can see why this will be a brief blast of Arctic air for the folks up north. It will definitely be a Frigid Friday from D.C. to Philly, NYC to Boston. Many will dip to below zero.

We're watching for the upper trough over Texas to pass by early tomorrow clearing away our clouds and bringing back the sunshine.

Once the rain leaves tonight, the next 7 days will be mostly dry. We begin the weekend chilly, but by Sunday afternoon we flirt with near 70. Perfect parade weather. Stay tuned!

Why So Cold? It's The Snow Cover Stupid...

Thu, 02 Feb 2023 01:15:18 +0200

As computer models predicted, the Arctic front staggered on down off the Louisiana coast making for an ugly overcast & chilly day. Fortunately, the core of the cold has stayed to our west & north, but the real cause of the cold has been an extensive snow cover from the Rockies into the Northeast. (yellow arrows) The north winds coming off that snow pack does not moderate much before it's back under the over-running low clouds across the South. I borrowed the Snow Cover Stupid from James Carville during the Bill Clinton campaign for President (It's the economy, stupid). Deep snow pack can result in extremely cold temperatures.

A sure sign that the daily higher sun angle is beginning to work is both Denver & Omaha hit 40+ in the sunshine. Down under the clouds, most of Texas was in the 30s.

An upper disturbance is lifting out of Mexico triggering widespread precipitation, much of it of the frozen (Snow, Sleet, Freezing rain) variety from Texas into Tennessee. We may see some periods of heavy rain here as this system races by with the highest rain chances after noon through early evening. Bruce showed the time line on his 5 pm broadcast.

If we briefly get into the warm air sector, temps could pop back into the 70s. Behind the front, seasonally colder air will make for a delightful weekend if you're dressed for it. A warm up begins by Sunday afternoon.

Once this next system departs early on Friday, it looks like a long stretch of sunshine is coming for the weekend into next week. Have to get through some PM storms on Thursday. SPC is downplaying any severe threat right now. Stay tuned!

Frontal Boundary Getting Close. Winter North, Spring South

Wed, 01 Feb 2023 03:21:30 +0200

Sorry I'm so late but my eye exam took way longer than expected. Seems I need cataract surgery, which is a sure sign of getting OLD! The Arctic front is struggling to get down through us. All model guidance says it will drift down to the coast making us much colder tomorrow. Today's high was 78 & tomorrow may stay in the 50s...IF the front drifts down to our south. IF it stalls, we could be back into the 70s again.

The Arctic air is so massive & dense that it is creating it's own momentum in pushing slowly to the south. The forecast challenge remains the upper SW flow that will eventually get the front moving back to the north as the main upper energy over the Baja finally lifts to the NE.

Most of the country is dealing with late January Winter weather. Overrunning of the frigid surface air is causing lots of icy conditions from Texas up into the Ohio valley.

Travel is a nightmare for many & local officials are asking folks to stay home if possible.

Locally, our issues will be more dense fog tonight with heavy rains possible, mainly north of Lake P. on Thursday PM.

Finally, January was very mild over most of the nation east of the Rockies. We only had a couple of days below average/normal, but when we were warm, we were very warm. January 2023 easily will be in the top five here.

Satellite pictures confirm the warmth farther north as all of the Great Lakes have little ice covering. There is plenty of snow on the ground as you can see the local topography shows up (rivers) on the visible satellite view. Usually when it's very mild/warm, the next month or two go the other way. With Mardi Gras coming, I hope not. Stay tuned!

Feels Like Spring, But Winter Not Far Away...

Tue, 31 Jan 2023 01:02:40 +0200

The coldest air mass since our Christmas freeze is making misery for a good part of the nation. Normally, I'd be worried about that air spreading down to us as we're still in the heart of Winter. But the upper air pattern will not allow that to happen as SW upper winds will continue for another 3 days.

Look at how close we are to the chill. North Louisiana is in the lower 40s while it's 80+ south of Lake Pontchartrain.

In the short term, the next three mornings will be very mild & muggy with dense fog advisories. An ice storm will cripple travel from Texas to the Northeast so expect delays and possible road closures.

The disturbance coming out of California will finally drive a cold front through us late Thursday.

That will bring back sweater & coat weather for Friday & the weekend. Until then, it's foggy & warm.

Finally, all this warm weather has my flowers blooming. Note the Camellia bush behind Bailey.

Even my grapefruit tree is blossoming! Way too soon since we can still get freezes well into late February & early March. Stay tuned!

Yesterday's Rainfall Forecast Nailed it!

Mon, 30 Jan 2023 01:06:34 +0200

The South Shore saw some morning showers, but the bulk of today's rains were over areas west and north of Lake P. That is exactly what the computer forecast predicted yesterday.

You can see on the bottom graphic the numbers NWS predicted. Baton Rouge has received over 4" while McComb is near 1.50+. More rain is coming as a stalled boundary sits just to our north.

It feels Spring-like across the South Shore while the North Shore is in for more heavy rainfall.

The upper disturbance is over east Texas with a large rain shield stretching eastward into Georgia. There is very little snow on the far NW side of this system.

The sprawling Arctic air mass has single digits down into Kansas. The cold air cannot plow down to us since the upper flow remains from the SW. In fact, another upper low is over California and will rotate around the trough and bring us some storms on Thursday turning colder for Friday & Saturday. Until then, our weather will depend on where the frontal boundary sets up. If it would stagger down to our south, we would chill into the 50s. If it stays to our north, we'll be in the 60s & 70s with a daily fog issue.

So again I give you a 7 day forecast that has low confidence due to that uncertainty of the location of the stalled front.

Finally, here's the system over California that could bring us some storms on Thursday.

It's not another Atmospheric River, but it is raining again with snow at the higher elevations. If you're north of Lake P., pay attention this evening for more heavy rainfall. Stay tuned!

Upper Pattern Makes For A Challenging Forecast...

Sun, 29 Jan 2023 01:12:52 +0200

What we haven't heard so far this month id the phrase "January Thaw" , or a period of milder weather following weeks of butter cold. Why not? because January 2023 has been above normal for most of the country. That will change this week as there will be a dip in the jet stream over the western states with a SW flow across most of the southern states. That will mean Arctic air will grip the northern tier of states while the South stays mild. In between, it will be stormy with snow, freezing rain & rain making for a dreary stretch of weather. Might even mean the 1st snows for D.C., Philly & NYC?

The top graphic clearly shows the warmth across the country for January so far with only the west (because of the Atmospheric rivers) cooler than normal. The bottom temp. map has the Arctic cold (single digits or below zero) gripping the northern Rockies & Plains.

Clouds are streaming in from the Pacific in an upper SW flow, but this upper disturbance is minor compared to the last two.

The forecasting challenge becomes, "where will the front stall?" Based on the continuing upper flow from the SW, my gut says to our north along a Lake Charles, McComb, Montgomery line.

That is based on the rainfall potential forecast. However, we (both sides of Lake P.) are in a level 2 flood risk.

Look at the surge of low level moisture (60+ dew points) coming in from the SW. Satellite views already show sea fog off our coast (yellow arrows).

NWS isn't talking about dense fog later tonight as brisk SE winds should keep the clouds up off the ground. That will change later in the week where daily dense fog will be an issue. In the short term, Hannah laid out the time line for Sunday's showers.

There coulld be a few morning showers, but the bulk of the rain will come in the late afternoon through evening time frames with the North Shore having the greater chances for heavier rainfall.

View this seven day forecast with a great degree of uncertainty based on the placement of the surface front. IF it sinks to our south, highs might be stuck in the 50s (40s North Shore). Or, it stays north and we are back to 70+ if we see any sunshine. The one certainty is we will have no freeze threat this next week. Finally,

Keep up on the heavy rain threat on Sunday PM into Sunday night, especially over the North Shore. I hate these stalling fronts as they often mean 'training' of radar echoes with storms moving along the same track over and over. Stay tuned!

Goodbye Sunshine, Hello Clouds Before Sunday Soaker...

Sat, 28 Jan 2023 01:18:19 +0200

What a wonderful way to end the work week with plenty of sunshine, low humidity, little wind & comfy cool temps. But that will quickly change tomorrow as south winds bring back the clouds & muggies with periods of heavy rain possible on Sunday.

Clouds will overspread us after midnight and Saturday will see way more clouds with only some sunny breaks. The upper disturbance west of the Baja will approach on Sunday and that will be the trigger for widespread rainfall across all of south LA/MS.

The main storm track remains over the northern states with another surge of Arctic air moving towards the Great Lakes. The super cold air will not drop down to us. In fact, we warm up ahead of the late Sunday cold front.

The bottom graphic still shows dew points very low even down in south Texas. That will rapidly change tomorrow and by the afternoon you'll notice a different feel to the air.

Bruce Katz laid out the time line for when the rain will arrive on Sunday. The morning hours look mainly dry while the afternoon & evening look wet.

Speaking of Brucie...

The little fella ventured over to Drago's (great gumbo!) to have lunch with Bruce and congratulate his promotion to Chief Meteorologist. What most of you might not know about Bruce is that he really is a very nice guy. I'll be with him again this summer as the FOX 8 hurricane consultant assisting if the big one comes again. FOX 8 continues to be Your Weather Authority. Stay tuned!

Cold (Not Frigid) Air Sinks Down Into The Gulf...

Fri, 27 Jan 2023 01:03:24 +0200

If you are dressed for it, today was a beautiful day with clear skies and low humidity. The cold front that blew through here on Tuesday has plunged all the way down to the Yucatan. The cold air clouds made for an impressive satellite view as return flow is setting up over the western Gulf.

With clear skies and light winds, widespread frost is possible Friday morning on both sides of Lake P. with the North Shore near freezing. I'm keeping my plants in my He-Shed another night.

The difference in this cold air mass compared to our December freeze is the source region (Canada) is much milder. In fact, western Canada is above freezing compared to the 30-40 below back in December. The super cold is confined to eastern Canada and it would take a "Polar Vortex" sinking over the Great Lakes for that cold to come south.

I don't see that happening during the next 10-14 days. There is a "clipper" diving out of Canada that will bringing snow and more cold air to the Great Lakes, but it will not affect us. Our next rain threat comes in the southern Jet Stream from the Pacific.

Tomorrow might be slightly warmer (58-62) but still below our long term average (63) The different feel will return on Saturday into Sunday with Sunday being rather soggy. I don't see a severe threat like last Tuesday, but we could see 1-2' of rain.

Because of the upper zonal (west to east) flow over us, a frontal boundary may stall along the northern Gulf keeping the weather unsettled. Finally...

You don't have to drive too far to the north to see snow on the ground. Satellite views revealed a snow stripe across Oklahoma into Arkansas. I know, for you snow geeks that's like close but no cigar! Don't give up hope. Winter is not over yet. Stay tuned!

Front Gone As Arctic Air Sinks Southward...

Thu, 26 Jan 2023 00:27:22 +0200

Last night's stormy weather has moved to the East coast & way down into the Gulf (yellow arrows). The upper low has pulled up over lake Erie allowing some Arctic air to creep back into the lower 48.

teens have plunged down to Omaha and for the first time in many weeks, we'll see below zero temps. cover the northern Plains. The freeze line will dip down to the North Shore and I have brought some of my tropical plants and hanging baskets back into my He-Shed for the next 2 nights. What is bringing the cold southward?

The "atmospheric river" that has drenched the West coast for weeks has shifted northward as a big upper ridge forms over the West. That has brought sunshine back to the West coast, but it buckled the jet stream over the eastern states. That is allowing the super cold (35-45 below) air to flow into the U.S.

Unlike the December freeze here, there is no "Polar Vortex" dropping over the Great Lakes, but rather a broad upper trough. Because of that, I expect only a light freeze on the North Shore while we stay above freezing south of Lake P.

There is a low cloud deck to our NW, but that should be gone tomorrow as the upper storm exits. Note most of Texas is in the 40s & 50s so don't expect a warm up until the weekend.

We'll be dry for the next three days before unsettled weather returns on Sunday. Next week looks to be much warmer once again, but that could set the stage for another round of severe storms. Far to early to know if that will happen. Finally...

The top view is the snow cover across the Cascades & Sierra Nevada mountains extending into Nevada & Utah. All of the white is snow on the ground. This is all much needed moisture. The middle picture is today's warmest temperatures across Florida. If you hate the cold, head to the Sunshine State! The bottom pic / graphic is the SPC's storm reports from yesterday. Fortunately for us, the only long track tornado was over upper Texas into SW LA. We had some smaller tornadoes in LA & NW Florida with straight line wind damage, but the really bad storms never developed. This is, after all, our typical secondary severe weather season.. Stay tuned!

Possible Severe Storms Coming 9-12 PM...

Wed, 25 Jan 2023 01:08:37 +0200

There has been no change in the thinking regarding the POTENTIAL for severe storms tonight, We have a potent upper over north Texas with a surface low near Beaumont. Extending to the east is a warm frontal boundary that has struggled to get northward today. Only in the past hour have we jumped into the 60s.

There is a line of strong storms now entering western Louisiana with a history of producing tornadoes & wind damage in eastern Texas.

We have seen winds gusting to 40+ at MSY and we are under a High Wind Warning for this evening.

Models show the highest winds coming with the front so we need to pay attention between 8-11 PM

What's causing all this bad weather? There is a potent upper low NW of Dallas with a strong sub-tropical jet stream along the northern Gulf. Where these two flow split (Green circle), there is upper divergence that causes enhanced surface lifting. In addition, we have contrasting air masses with warm air to the south and cold air to the north.

This is a fast moving system and will be well east of us by daybreak. Much colder air follows with sunshine for the rest of this week. Another system arrives for this weekend.

Finally, where it was cold enough north of Dallas, there was snow!

It melted on the streets of Edmond, OK, but my Grandson (Ethan) seemed to enjoy being out in it. To be a kid again! Stay alert this evening and stay tuned!

Severe Threat Not Coming Until After Dark...

Tue, 24 Jan 2023 19:13:09 +0200

There has been no change in the SPC's thinking regarding the severe weather potential for today & tonight. The upper low back over the Rockies is pushing eastward with a surface low developing west of Houston. A warm front is lifting out of the Gulf and that is where the danger will be...in the warm air sector.

Our severe threat won't arrive until well after dark, but before midnight. SPC is keeping us in the level 3 (Enhanced) risk which is very high for us. Usually that bullseye stays well to our north, but the air to our north is too cold. You have to be in the warm air sector as typically cold air doesn't allow for big T-Storm development.

Buras has soared to 70+ as the warm air surges northward. Some showers developed ahead of that front as it lifts farther to the north. Here's the timing on a squall line/intense storms for later this evening.

So the bottom line is we are fine until after dark. Need to go to the store, doctor appointment, early dinner? No problem, just remember to get home before 8 PM and know what room is your SAFE ROOM in case warnings are issued on your FOX 8 weather app.

It appears the main threat tonight will be high winds with gusts to 60+. Those strong winds off the Gulf are resulting in higher tides with some coastal flooding. Zack on his morning programs showed the computer timing of the highest winds tonight.

So as you can see, our highest wind threat begins around 8 PM to our west, between 9-11 PM over the North Shore & Metro ending 11PM to 1 AM along the MS coast and lower Plaquemines.

So the time line gives us plenty of opportunity to secure our homes & yards. I'm going to place all my hanging baskets on the ground until the danger passes. Just in, at 11 AM SPC issued the first Tornado Watch for the upper Texas coast & SW LA. That is where the danger is now. Our danger is many hours away and I'll have my usual late PM update after 4 PM. Stay tuned!

Severe Weather Potential Coming Late Tuesday...

Tue, 24 Jan 2023 00:13:56 +0200

After some sunshine Sunday afternoon & all day today, you just know it can't last. Those of you who have followed me for decades know I HATE to cry Wolf every time we have the POTENTIAL for severe weather. However, SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has us in a level 3 (Enhanced) risk for Tuesday PM into early Wednesday. I trust these guys/ladies as past history tells us they more often nail the danger several days in advance. Let's review the set up.

The "Atmospheric Rivers" that have drenched the West Coast for weeks, has been turned off as an upper ridge forms off the West Coast. The new storm track drops out of Canada down to the Rio Grande and then heads towards the Northeast, The severe potential develops where there is a "split" in the upper winds/jet streams between the northern & southern flows. That split enhances lift.

Right now, that split is over the Rockies (green circle) triggering more snow for them. Since the upper low over Arizona is much farther south than the low last week, the split in the jet streams is more likely to be closer to us.

As that disturbance taps into low level moisture (green outline), there should be widespread showers & storms develop Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. The exact location of that upper split will determine who will get the worst, most severe weather. Make sure your FOX 8 Weather App is updated with the alerts turned on. Here's the timing.

IF the models are correct, most of Tuesday during the day will be dry with increasing rain chances after 3 PM. Right now, it appears the greatest danger for strong storms comes after dark and before midnight. Remember, the driver of storms during the Winter (when the sun angle is low) is not daytime heating, but the upper splitting of the jet streams.

As Hannah showed at noon on FOX 8, there will be some strong winds gusts to 50+ and that could cause power outages. The heaviest rains are predicted to be over areas to our west, but that could change. We need to stay alert beginning after 3 PM tomorrow.

In the short term, let's enjoy the quiet as the surface high is drifting towards the eastern states. We'll see way more clouds tomorrow along with higher temps & humidity.

One factor limiting the heavy rain & severe threats could be low dew points/dry air. That will change during the day on Tuesday as winds return off the Gulf.

It will be colder behind the front, but it's not an Arctic Blast. So let's recap.

The latest model run tells us the severe Potential will be with the line of storms arriving between 10 PM and passing after midnight. Most of daylight Tuesday will be fine. Stay tuned!

Soggy Saturday Should Flip To Sunday PM Sunshine...

Sun, 22 Jan 2023 00:44:23 +0200

In the good book (Bible) it says..."and let there be light..." The Creator knew the importance of sunlight not just for plants, but for us humans. Today was day 2 without sunshine and I felt it. No energy, no motivation just Mr. Sluggish. Hopefully that should change by Sunday afternoon as low pressure over the Plains races into the Great Lakes. The main rainfall today has been to our north, but we'll get in on more showers after dark.

As the upper low lifts to the NE, we'll see a dry spell Sunday afternoon into Tuesday before another upper disturbance approaches. Too soon to know if that system will bring us a severe threat Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

The top view is the satellite view with the upper flow, the middle being this afternoon's position of that low with the bottom valid for Tuesday morning. Note the Tuesday low is farther to the south.

All in all, for late January the weather is pretty timid. There is no Arctic air in the lower 48 and the snowstorm over the Plains is not "historical". It's just basic January for most of the country.

We may see a bounce in the temps ahead of next Tuesday's disturbance, otherwise sweaters and jackets will be needed next week. Finally,,,

The air up in northern Canada is seasonally cold (25-35 below). Models do indicate a Polar Vortex will drop down into the Great Lakes The following Tuesday, 10 days from now. IF the Vortex keeps diving southward, we need to pay attention during the first week in February. However, right now the model is retreating the Vortex back to the NE and NOT down to the East coast. Snow geeks, don't give up hope yet as that's 10 days out and lots could change. Stay tuned!

A Stretch Of The Uglies Coming...

Sat, 21 Jan 2023 01:01:23 +0200

One thing that hasn't happened for most of this Winter is a period (many days) of cloudy, cold & wet weather. We did have the 4 days of freezing back around Christmas, but that's about it. The next 4-6 days will change that as several upper disturbances will keep us in clouds with cold temperatures (40s & 50s) and some rain opportunities.

It appears the North Shore will have more rain than south of Lake P. This is all part of a upper pattern shift that could bring down some Arctic air for NEXT weekend.

The change has already happened along the West coast as a ridge has developed turning off for now the Atmospheric rivers than have drenched them for 3 weeks. The upper trough has moved over the Rockies and that means we need to pay attention to see if a trough develops over the eastern states.

Right now the super cold (30-40 below) air is trapped over northern Canada, but look at the upper pattern predicted for next weekend.

The top graphic is for tomorrow morning with the next valid one week later. Wow, not exactly a polar vortex, but certainly a pattern that brings the frigid air over the Great Lakes. If it's a little deeper, we could see another freeze threat here?

in the short term, the upper disturbance coming out of the Rockies will trigger our rain chances here on Saturday with a break coming for Sunday PM into Monday. Another upper disturbance will approach on Tuesday and it could bring us a severe weather threat if we get into the warm air sector.

Tuesday will be the only day above normal as we definitely are trending towards a colder overall pattern. You cold air geeks need to hope the Arctic Blast pushes into the Gulf next weekend and then a Gulf low develops throwing moisture back over us.

Could we make a snowman like my Grandson (Ethan) did 2 years ago in Oklahoma? Nah, but...

Do you remember Jan. 17, 2018? That's the last time Bailey was able to play in the snow. Keep the faith Gang, Winter is far from over. Stay tuned!

As Good As It Gets For January...

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 01:00:25 +0200

There was a cute movie back in 1997 starring jack Nicholson & Helen Hunt called As Good As It Gets. It was funny, but no Academy Award winner unlike today's weather. After last night's front cleaned out the humidity, lots of sunshine and warm temperatures made today a winner, especially for mid January.

It won't last as more upper disturbances will trigger rounds of rain every 2-3 days along with colder temperatures.

No super cold Arctic air is around, but say goodbye to the 75-80 degree Spring preview for much of this month.

The deep low up near Green Bay doesn't have much cold air with it, consequently the precipitation is falling mainly as rain. Friday may start out with some filtered sunshine, but clouds will be on the increase with a cold rain breaking out after dark.

One low will streak by late Saturday into Sunday with a stronger one arriving on Tuesday. IF we get into the warm air sector, we may have to be on the watch for severe weather. Finally, here's some stuff you won't see on our local channels.

What the heck are those streaks down over the Gulf sthte LA/MS coast? My guess those are airplane contrails (condensation Trails). Notice we don't have any around us as the drier air has moved in.

And what about those Atmospheric Rivers out west? California is getting a break right now, but more rain could be coming. I'll be watching to see if the storms over the Pacific curve northward towards Alaska. That would buckle the Jet Stream and bring Arctic air back our way by the end of next week. However, signs right now indicate the lows will keep moving into the West coast bringing them rain and spreading milder Pacific air over most of the nation. Regardless, look at the drought monitor for the past 3 weeks.

California no longer has any reds (Extreme) and that's if no more rain falls. However, that's the short term drought. Most reservoirs are no where full and could use more rain. We don't need the rain here, but more is coming. Boo

In fact, no area east of the Mississippi River has any reds. It's the central Plains that needs the moisture. Stay tuned!

Noticeably Colder & Rainy Weekend Coming...

Thu, 19 Jan 2023 01:18:33 +0200

This morning's low of 66 was 4 degrees above our long term average/normal afternoon high. To say we have been too warm for January is obvious, but that's about to change. The upper air pattern will become very progressive/fast across the nation with each upper disturbance moving at a lower latitude/more southerly with time. It won't bring us snow like in Colorado today, but we'll have an ugly, rainy & cold period for many days.

The top picture is my son's (Rob) house in Longmont before the snow yesterday. The next was this morning after 6-8"+ of the white stuff. Looks nice, except he has to shovel out the drive to get to work.

The top two graphics are where the upper low is today. Look how the models keep those lows coming. The top graphic is valid for Saturday morning with the middle valid for Tuesday. With a front stalled along the northern Gulf coast, those disturbances will trigger a cold overrunning rain shield for us.

The bottom graphic is valid for 10 days from now showing a deep "Polar Vortex" dropping down from Canada. If that proves reality and continues to deepen along the East Coast, we'll have to worry about another hard freeze coming the first week in February. We have many days to watch the situation evolve.

In the short term, a cold front will bring some showers after midnight, but there is very little cold air right behind it. The severe threat appears to be staying well north of us as the SPC's Tornado Watches indicate.

You will notice a different feel to the air tomorrow as dew points fall from the 60s into the 20s & 30s.

As you can see, the highest rain chances occur after midnight and are gone by daybreak.

As Hannah Gard showed on her noon program, we'll have several rain opportunities coming into next week. The difference will be the much colder temperatures.

So all you cold air geeks, get those sweaters & heavy coats ready as our Spring preview is ending. No snow yet, but if the model is correct on that Polar Vortex, who knows for later this month! Stay tuned!

Hard To Believe It's January As Record Warmth Returns...

Wed, 18 Jan 2023 00:49:18 +0200

Saw on TWC that New York City has gone 313 days since the last time it snowed. That places them in the top ten regarding snowless days with the longest stretch being 332 days back in 2020. They have been getting precipitation, but it has all fallen as rain as temperatures have been too warm. Locally, since our bout with the Arctic Blast back in December, we've been mostly above normal/average. Today soared past the previous record of 79.

Since tomorrow's record is 80, we have the opportunity to make it back to back record breakers. What's the reason for the warmth? Basically it's the lack of an East Coast upper trough.

For most of this Winter, the upper trough has been over the West coast & Rockies as "atmospheric rivers (9)" have battered California bringing much needed rain & snows to the western states. That will change a little later this week, but I don't see any real Arctic chill coming for the rest of this month.

It is seasonally cold across the northern tier of states with the exception being the South and into the Northeast.

We have one more day of near record warmth before a cool down arrives on Thursday. Note the dew points has surged into the 60s telling me deeper low level Gulf moisture will increase the sea fog chances and give parts of Louisiana a slight threat for severe storms Wednesday night after midnight.

The cold front will clear us for Thursday but the clouds and rain move back for the weekend along with colder air. You'll need sweaters and jackets/coats again.

Finally, while I was out fishing yesterday, NHC identified an area of low pressure off the East coast as Invest 90 L. It appeared to have T-Storms rotating around a well defined low level circulation. Why was it not given a name? Don't know.

Now compare that to the bottom satellite view of Tropical Storm Colin last summer. At the time I called it a wasted name, which is was as it quickly dissipated over the Carolinas. Look at those photos. Which one looks more like a tropical system? Go figure. Oh, after catching our limits 2 straight days 2 weeks ago. Captain Hylton and I went back to the same spot and we caught 4 fish. Go figure that too. Stay tuned!