You can see how the temperatures respond to the upper pattern.  It's chilly in the East and Rockies under the upper lows while it has warmed up under the ridge.

There are no signs of return flow around the surface high yet, but we do have some higher cirrus clouds streaking in from the SW.

Dew points are still in the 40s & 50s making the air feel delightful.  By Wednesday you'll start to feel almost hot as humidity goes up.  NHC is watching 2 areas way out in the Atlantic.

The 2 swirls I see are an upper low NE of the Islands and a disorganized complex of clouds well east of Barbados.  Models try to develop the southern system in the Caribbean, but if anything forms, it will be forced to stay far to the south and into central America.  By then, our next front will be here blocking the disturbance from moving northward.   I think we're done with the hurricane season along the northern Gulf Coast as these cold fronts have brought water temps down from the mid-upper 80s into the lower 70s.  If we do get a late October storm in the Gulf, it's more likely to be turned to our east as the upper flow increases from the west.  For now, enjoy what we have as I'm going fishing the next couple of days.  Stay tuned!

As Ian leaves, there is nothing coming into the Gulf for the next 10-14 days.  There could be another named storm (Julia) way out in the Atlantic, but that will not be our concern.  Models do bring another strong cold front through for NEXT weekend and I'm fairly confident our hurricane season is over here.

The main jet stream is up across the northern states and we'll have to wait a while for another front.

We don't need another front right now since the circulation around Ian continues to bring down cooler, drier air.  It looks like a great weekend here with a slow warming trend into next week.

Enjoy your weekend and try to get outdoors and soak in our great Fall weather.  Stay tuned!

From satellite views, we do not see that donut hole look.  Ian is a far weaker storm, but he still could produce a surge of 4-7'+ east of that center line landfall.   That landfall will happen during the daylight hours on Friday.  I trust local officials have instructed all those at risk in low lying areas to get away from the water.  I'm hearing the death toll in Florida is at least 15.  Heed the warnings Gang!

Speaking of Florida, the videos I;ve seen are tragic.  The causeway to Sanibel & Captiva islands is gone.  It will take months to repair limiting access to the island only by boat.  Look at these pictures.  They remind me of after Ida.

The bottom shows the dangers of staying in a mobile home.   You can't stay when a big one comes.  But there's more...

If the wind didn't get you, a broken gas line will.  No fire fighters available during the height of the storm.  I almost feel a sense of guilt regarding what great weather we have.

With an upper tough over the East, a cool, dry Canadian high has settled over Michigan.  The circulation around Ian interacting with the high has driven the drier air off our coast & all the way into Florida.

That good feel air will help those without power & AC.

We still have brisk north winds, but they will diminish as Ian lifts farther away.  We have a beautiful weekend coming up.  Get out and enjoy it, but let us never forget prayers for our friends in Ian's path.  We were there a year ago.  Stay tuned!

There are many canals connecting home owners to Tampa Bay.  This is Tom's son's (T.Michael) house in the Baycrest area.  Much like the Bay itself, there's not enough water to float a boat.  So why did folks have to evacuate?   Let me try to explain.  If you live near water anywhere along the Gulf coast, NHC has to OVERWARN since the evacuation process is typically days.   Models try to forecast the track 5 days out, but we all know there is still errors in track forecasting.  So let's review the track.

The green line in the top photo is Ian as a Tropical Storm with the orange being a hurricane and the deeper orange being a major hurricane.   Before the storm became major, I grabbed the track prediction issued on September 23(bottom pic).  Wow, 5 days out and NHC hit the bullseye.  However, due to shifting model information, NHC shifted the center line track westward focusing in on the Big Bend area.  Remember, the GFS had Ian hitting Pensacola!   So that was why the warnings were extended all along Florida's west coast.

But what happened once Ian reach the Gulf?  Models started an eastward shift, but the evacuation orders were all ready in place and hundreds of thousands were already on the roads out.  Should NHC cancel the warnings north of Tampa?  Remember, Tampa was once the bullseye.  Can't do, the risk is still there for a track shift/wobble.   By the time Ian's track was locked, it was only a day out.  I thought NHC did a tremendous job with a very difficult moving storm.  This was not just a Hurricane.  This was a MAJOR Hurricane.  Communities have to understand, for every 5 storms you have to evacuate, 4 will end up being for no reason at all.  The UNCERTAINTIES in track forecasting will always mean NHC will over warn on the side of caution.   For nearly 4 decades I educated my viewers on the importance of following the center line track.  IF you can stay on the weaker side and stay outside the EYEWALL, impacts usually are minor.  However, if you are on the right side of the track, that is where impacts will be most severe.  Here's where the worst of the storm hit.

There's Cape Coral again on the right side of the track.  I've seen the drone video of the road to Sanibel Island not there no more.   It may be weeks before access to Sanibel & Captiva are restored.  I'm sure we'll see views looking much like Grand Isla last year after Ida.  The storm may be gone, but the rebuilding/restoring process will take months, perhaps years.

So now Tropical Storm Ian is leaving Florida, but he's not done with destroying as NHC makes him a hurricane again later today.  The latest track takes the center line into Charleston.

That places Savannah on the weaker side with Myrtle Beach on the stronger side.  Charleston is the bullseye with a 4-7' storm surge coming.  Hopefully, the local islands have already been evacuated?  Ian will be more like a very strong winter-like storm as he interacts with a strong high to the north.  He will not be a Hugo (1989), but there will be some impacts.  Pay attention if you live along the Carolina coasts.

Locally, we have no issues.  Winds are coming down. Nights are comfy cool with days warm, but not hot.  next update after 4 PM.  Stay tuned!

Obviously, the cooler & drier air over us and much of the Gulf has been unable to penetrate Ian's circulation.   He had winds to 155 (Cat. 4) at landfall.  Look at these radar views.

According to NHC, landfall was over Cayo Costa island north of Sanibel Island at 2:05 PM CDT.

These pictures show where Cayo Costa is located.  It appears to be a barrier island (arrow middle pic) with no structures.  However, just to the north is Three Sisters Island that has many homes on it.   I trust folks listened and got out of harm's way?

Remember, the surge and worst part of any hurricane is typically to the right of the center line track.  The Tampa Bay area has once again dodged the bullet of a major hurricane.  Sure you're getting the rains & winds, but the winds rotating around Ian are from the NE across Tampa bay blowing the waters out.  The bottom picture was sent to me by my dear friend Tom Boyle taken from Bayshore Boulevard overlooking Tampa Bay.  He said normally the waters are 4 feet deep.  Clearly the bottom is exposed so they missed the big surge.  While much of south Florida is enduring and will continue to suffer for many more hours, Ian's circulation is bringing down cooler and drier air to the northern Gulf coast.

Sooner or later, that air will begin to weaken Ian as it moves up the East coast becoming more like a winter-like Nor'Easter.

I'm impressed to see dew points in the 30s as far south as Pensacola.  That is really dry air.  We should stay this way for the rest of this week.

If you don't mind the brisk winds, this is beautiful October weather in late September.  Things will settle down over the weekend into next week.  Models have no new threats for the next 7-10 days.

Folks far inland over Central Florida will be stunned by how strong Ian's winds are.  Disney World may not open until next week.  Stay tuned!

The top view is from last night when the northern side appeared to be weakening due to wind shear and entrainment of drier air.  How wrong I was old weather breath!  The bottom view is current showing a very symmetrical hurricane with the deepest reds on the east side.  That's where the greatest destruction will occur.  I'll use wording from our local NWS office during Katrina & Ida.  " There will be neighborhoods that will be uninhabitable for weeks, possibly months after the storm".  Those of you who have lived through our storms (Katrina, Laura, Delta, Ida) know it can take YEARS to recover.  Prayers need to go out for areas around Fort Myers as that is the likely landfall of the EYEWALL.  My experience tells me  IF you can stay away from the EYEWALL, you may have damage, but you won't have structures destroyed.

Here's the latest from NHC.  The center line track still could wobble a little, and that will make a huge difference regarding impacts.  The worse storm surge will stay well south of Tampa Bay.

the Tampa/St. Pete area will dodge the worse impacts, but you will see hurricane force winds & 10-20 inches of rain.  The bottom graphic is the rainfall totals.  The purple depicts 15-20 inches with the deeper orange being 10-15".  This will be a many day event with hurricane force winds lingering well inland, possibly all the way to Orlando.  Central Florida is effectively closed down.  Those of you keeping in touch with family & friends can expect cell service to go down as towers fail.  We learned you may be able to get text messages to go through long after the audio fails.  Try that.

the front EYEWALL is less than 2-3 hours of reaching the coast.   FYI, Jim Cantore is positioned in Punta Gorda so the videos later today should be dramatic & scary.  Louisiana has been the bullseye for the past several years.  We're glad, yet sad that someone else has to go through these Beasts of Mother nature.

Let's enjoy our great Fall weather that should last into next week.  Once Ian is gone, models are showing nothing developing in Gulf for the next 10-14 days.  that would get us well into October.  keep the fronts coming.  Next update around 4 PM.  Stay tuned!

Dew points are in the 40s across all of the northern Gulf and Tropical systems thrive on moisture, not dry air.   Could this be the signal that Ian has peaked in intensity and will start a weakening process before he reaches the coast?   Let's look at the latest NHC 4 PM advisory.

Well, NHC's discussion indicates the change in satellite presentation is probably the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle and they believe that is temporary.  They keep Ian's current max winds at 120 MPH (Cat. 3), but forecast an increase to 130 + (Cat. 4) before landfall.   One thing to note, the NHC 4 PM centerline track is identical to their 10 AM advisory, meaning that eastward shift has ended.  Remember, the worst impacts will be to the right of forward motion.  This still will be a life changing storm for many with some structures in the EYEWALL uninhabitable for days, possibly weeks or months.  Pay attention to you local officials.  Even areas far inland away from the coast will be without power with flooding rainfall (10-20") possible.   Bottom line, NHC doesn't buy into Ian weakening anytime soon.  I hope they're wrong and we start to see that drier air along with increasing SW upper shear begin a weakening process.

The rest of the Tropics have several swirls, but nothing worth talking about.  There is an upper ridge over the Rockies with a deep trough over the East.  That has the West warm while the Great Lakes and NE are chilly.

Despite all day sunshine, we were 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.  The winds will remain breezy, perhaps even stronger on Wednesday as Ian moves towards Florida.

We are in for a stretch of delightful weather here.  No rain is expected into next week.  Enjoy, but keep Florida in your prayers.  Stay tuned!

Ian has completed his recurve and is now moving due north. A cold front is pushing off our coast and heading towards Ian.   That is our protection as tropical systems do not like cooler & drier air.  A bend towards the NE should begin later today.  So what does that mean?

The latest NHC track has again shifted slightly to the east and, if that trend continues, Tampa will end up on the weaker side of the storm, meaning less storm surge, but that's all.  Unless the eastward trend continues, Tampa will still get into the EYEWALL winds. I grabbed these graphics from Zack Fradella's morning programs on FOX 8.

So the shift to the east means less impacts to St. Pete & Clearwater, but worse impacts to the coast south of Sarasota.  Note the gusts to 120+ at Sarasota & Port Charlotte.  Even Tampa could see gusts top 100+.

So then the main issue with a slow moving hurricane is drenching rainfall for days.  NHC's predicts 15-20"+ (purple shade) with 10-15" amounts around that.  Some model have totals approaching 30+" !   The key will be that center line track.  What if there's a "wobble" back to the west?  How about a wobble to the east.  Either way, this will be a serious impact for many and everyone should be fully prepared to endure many days without power.

The cold front is making us feel delightful.  Look at the cooler air plunging southward.  Birmingham is in the 40s!  More importantly, so are the dew points meaning this is very dry air.  Our hope is the front reaches Ian and begins the weakening process BEFORE it reach landfall.  Right now, NHC believes the turn towards the east brings it to the coast sooner while still a Cat. 3.  Time to open those prayer lines for those in Harm's Way.  I'll update again after 4.  By then we'll have more model runs giving us higher confidence that Ian's greatest impacts will miss Tampa Bay.  Unfortunately, those to the south will be hammered.  Stay tuned!

The EYEWALL of Ida was going to miss Metro NOLA, but that last minute wobble brought the heart of the storm into St. Charles & Jefferson.  It made areas west of Morgan City not as hard hit, but it clobbered areas east of the center line track.  I say this to give some of you hope if your city is in Ian's bullseye.  Let go over what we know.  NHC is watching a new area way out in the Atlantic, but it's Ian that is center stage.

Geez, I just heard a national reporter say, "for most, this is not their first hurricane".  True, but for most, this will be their worst hurricane seeing impacts they have never seen before.  He continues to get better organized and should have the classic donut hole look of a major hurricane by tomorrow.

NHC has shifted their latest track slightly to the east bringing the EYEWALL on to Florida's west coast.  Worse yet, models are slowing forward movement meaning folks will be in for many hours of chaos.

IF this track proves reality, the Tampa Bay area will get the worst of the storm.   Storm surge of 6-10' will spill water over the sea wall on Tampa Bay.  Many parts of Pinellas County will be flooded from St. Pete to Clearwater to Dunedin.  Davis Island & inter-bay Tampa will see water where none has been "in our lifetime".   So what could change?  This track has no wobbles, but it might keep shifting eastward in response to a deepening upper trough dragging down a cold front from the north.  IF the track could shift south of Tampa, that would be huge as the worst side of the storm is to the right/east.  Don't think this current center line is the final track.

You can see the colder air plunging down over the Great Lakes.  It's still warm/hot down south, but that will change.  Look at the 30 & 40 dew points coming our way.  As the circulation of Ian begins entraining that drier air, that along with increasing upper wind shear will weaken him.  Which will win out?  Ian moving northward, the cold front moving southward?  It will be interesting to see who "wins".

The current surface map has the front stalled just to our north, but it appears it is just to our south on radar.   McComb's dew point is down to 48!   Now that's good feeling air!

Some big storms have fired off just to our south.  Winds have turned around to the north, but we're not feeling the cooler air yet.

You'll notice the difference when you go out tomorrow morning, especially across the Lake.  Since it will be breezy the next several days, after the sun sets, you may need to pull out the sweaters!  Yippee! Stay tuned!

Unlike yesterday, when the T-Storms were disorganized around Ian, storms on the color IR have clustered around the center.   It doesn't have the classic donut hole shape yet, but he will.  Here's the latest NHC track.

That would bring the eyewall just offshore with the strongest side of the storm impacting all of Florida's west coast.  Storm surge could reach 5-10 feet which would bring water over the seawall in Tampa Bay.   Best case scenarios for Tampa/St. Pete would be for the center to drift farther to the west, or to turn quicker and go inland south.  Of course that would bring other areas south into harm's way.  I mentioned Cedar Key as a possible landfall on a previous post and that still looks like a "good" bet. The main computer models have come into agreement this morning.

The top is the Euro with the bottom the GFS.  The time is Wednesday AM.  They appear to be exactly the same.   This will be Florida's storm as the upper East coast trough will bring down a cold front to protect us from Ian.

look at the dew points in the 40s & 50s coming our way.  That'll bring 50s to the North Shore at night and 60s south.  Dare I say it...SWEATER WEATHER!

The cooler & drier air will be drawn down into Ian weakening the storm once by Tampa.  Unfortunately, it won't get there soon enough for them.   Get the Prayer lines ready.  Many will need them.  Next update after 4 PM.  Stay tuned

The daylight/visible loops clearly show a well defined circulation.  However, the color infrared (IR) view has total chaos/disorder of T-Storms.   I have no clue why he isn't developing, but the longer he struggles, the better.  The bottom past center line track shows the well established move to the NW and that is what NHC believes Ian will continue moving.

If you are following that center line closely, as I've coached you to do for 4 decades, you can see the latest NHC forecast is nudged slightly farther to the EAST, away from us.  Here is the comparison from the 10 AM forecast to the 4 PM.

Earlier it was going west of Valdosta, but now they shifted it farther to the east.  My gut tells me this eastward trend will continue placing all of Florida's west coast under the gun.  IF landfall ends up near Cedar Key, that places the eyewall over St. Pete/Clearwater/Tampa Bay.  Could that still change?  Absolutely, but much like Ida last year, a shift in the track of 20-30 miles means huge differences in impacts.  Politicians tell you, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.   We'll know more by midday tomorrow, but I'll be asking for the prayer lines to be open for our friends along Florida's West coast.   If you're inland, the main concerns will be 12-18" of rainfall so don't think you won't have impacts.

A cold front is still coming to protect us.  We have one more day of 90+ degree heat, but the rest of next week looks great.  Note how the dew points even ahead of the front have dropped into the 60s.

We could see a few showers ahead of the front tomorrow, but the rest of the week looks dry.

I trust all of us are done with the 90s until next summer?   Finally...

Last night was special for me as I was able to share dinner at Keith Young's Streak House in Madisonville.  I call it the Ch. 8 "Dream Team" from the '90s of Ron Swoboda, Margaret Dubuisson, the little fella & John Snell.  What a fun night of memories.  Perhaps it'll bring a smile to you remembering the "good old days"!  I won't update again until tomorrow, unless there is a change to Ian's track.  Stay tuned!

Tropical Storm Ian is getting better organized on satellite view, but he is NOT intensifying yet.  Notice how his past track motion shifted over night, going from WSW to W and now to the NW.  That is great news for Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama.  The spaghetti models haven't continued the westward shift, and in fact have clustered on the Great Bend of North Florida.

The 2 main global models remain far apart on where landfall will occur and this will require NHC to over warn coastal locations.  Here's why.  We start with the European.

The Euro model has been consistent on taking Ian into/near Tampa/St. Pete.  If it proves correct, this will be a big blow for Florida's west coast.  I advised my friends in Tampa (Tom & Susan) yesterday to get to Costco & stock up.;  You still have time to do that.  However, look at the middle & bottom graphic.  That is the GFS solution that has it well offshore from Tampa on Wednesday and not making landfall until Friday east of Apalachicola. yesterday is had landfall at Pensacola.  OK, IF the GFS proves correct, the Tampa Bay region would miss the eyewall and the worst of the storm surge.  But gee, that's a close call.  Predictably, NHC has chosen to split the difference.  

The center line track takes it into an area of the coast that has far fewer people & property at risk.  That is the good news.  The bad news is wherever landfall is, the impacts will be severe.

So far, Ian is still struggling to get stronger as you can see the lack of organization on the color IR view.

All signs point for that to change and here's why.

The top 2 graphics are the ocean heat content showing the deepest, warmest waters.  The arrow points to Ian's location which is about to reach the warmest waters.  Without the upper shear from Fiona around anymore,  most hurricane models call for rapid intensification beginning this afternoon.  NHC is calling for a CAT. 4 (130+) west of Tampa weakening as the storm goes farther to the north.  By then, upper shear from an East coast trough, plus drier air from a cold front will impact Ian.

Zack showed that this morning and you can see the front taking shape to our north.  That front is our friend and will keep us protected from Ian.   I'll update again after 4 PM.  Time to focus on the Saints on FOX 8.  Who Dat!  Saints 27 Tampa 17.  Stay tuned!

The satellite structure is looking more organized and it's only a matter of time before Ian becomes a major hurricane.  Spaghetti models continue with the westward shift and so does NHC.

NHC has shifted their track farther westward and, if correct, would follow yesterday's GFS solution instead of the Euro.  Let's keep watching to see if that westward trend continues later today.

For now, Ian is still in the formative stage, but it clearly is getting better organized.  Models are more accurate with well developed storms and Ian is expected to become that later today and tonight.  This still looks like Florida's storm with their west coast getting the brunt of the impacts.  If this westward trend continues, Disney World will have a couple of wet days, but the worst part of the storm should be towards Tampa/St. Pete.  Next update around 4 PM.  Stay tuned!

TD 10 is struggling to get better organized due to the strong NE shear created by the outflow from major Hurricane Fiona.  Currently the center is exposed, but that should change as we head into the weekend when Fiona will be gone and shear weakens.   Yesterday there was a large spread in the model solutions since the starting point was unknown.  Not so today.

The spaghetti models are clustered across central and south Florida with the Euro (middle pic) just west of Fort Myers next Wednesday morning.  The GFS (bottom pic) is farther to the west at the same time heading the system into the Big Bend area of north Florida.  Certainly, it appears this is a Florida storm.  Here's the latest NHC track.

It looks like NHC has split the difference between the GFS & the Euro, but they definitely shifted the center line track farther to the west.  Take a look at the 10 AM advisory compared to the 4 PM.

The top pic is from 10 AM with the center making landfall over Captiva island west of Ft. Myers.  The bottom is shifted 25-30 miles farther to the west now aiming for Sarasota.    What I will be looking for  is, will this westward trend continue?  I'd rather TD 10 (soon to be Ian) stay out of the Gulf and go east of Florida.  Could that still happen?  Yes, if we see a rapid intensification tomorrow as a stronger storm will turn to the right quicker.  So if you have reservations for Disney World next week, don't cancel just yet.  If your flight is not until Sunday, wait one more day to allow future model runs to confirm this Florida storm hit.  If you're going to the beaches this weekend, you look OK since the storm won't come until later next week.  But play attention as any storm that enters the Gulf bears close watching.

In case you're wondering why TD 10 won't become Hermine, look where NHC just named a new Tropical Storm!  Not worth mentioning.  Back over the U.S., the cool down is coming next week as the circulation around Ian will help drag down the colder air.  it's really starting to get chilly over Canada.

We did have a weak front push through over night with lower dew points making today feel a little better.  We still topped 90, but the breeze didn't make it feel as hot as yesterday.  Look at next week.

Wow!  Dare I say sweater weather at night on the North Shore?!!!   Whatever it takes to push the hurricanes away.  Come on October.  Stay tuned!

IF you believe in model runs, despite not having a starting point, most are turning 98 L to the east towards Florida.   That would be great for Louisiana.  However, there is a huge different in solutions between the Euro & the GFS.  Let's begin with the Euro.

The top frame is valid for Monday morning with the next Tuesday afternoon clearly bringing the system into south Florida.   But now look at the GFS.

Whoa, what a difference!  The top graphic is valid for Monday morning with the next for Tuesday afternoon.  While the Euro has the system making landfall in south Florida, the GFS is way farther to the west north of the Yucatan.   Take is NOT good for us as it means this storm will come a lots closer.  In fact, the next 2 images clearly show a strengthening hurricane over the loop current NEXT Wednesday making landfall early Friday near Pensacola. We would be on the west/weaker side of the storm, but that's way too close for comfort.  So what should we watch for and hope for?

Tonight & tomorrow, we want T-Storms to start developing around the center.  Why?  because a stronger storm/hurricane will turn to the north following the weakness of the upper trough along the East coast.  A weaker system will continue to go farther to the west, and the farther to the west before making the turn puts us in greater danger.  Zack Fradella had excellent graphics on his morning programs.

The Xs are the possible locations NEXT Wednesday.  If the 2 eastern most Xs are correct, it's Florida's storm.. However, if the location north of the Yucatan proves correct (GFS solution), then we will have some impacts late next week.  A cold front should push through us Sunday night and tropical systems don't like cold air.   So for now we watch & wait.  Perhaps you can stock up on some supplies this weekend, but we have many days to get ready IF we need to get ready.  

I'm encouraged to see such cold air push down into the lower 48.  The heat dome is being squashed down and we should enjoy noticeably cooler air for next week.

We might have tied the record high of 96, but the cooler air arrives for Monday-Wednesday of next week.  Not sure if it will be strong enough to block 98-L from us, but I think it might be enough to deflect it farther to our east.   Those of you with travel plans to Florida, keep up with the weather as travel plans may need to be changed.  Stay tuned!

You can see the areas highlighted with Tropical storm Gaston churning the shipping lanes of the north Atlantic, a small swill in the central south Atlantic, Major Hurricane Fiona leaving the Bahamas & a disorganized cluster of storms along the coast of South America, not to mention an area still on the western African coast.  let's focus on the system heading into the Caribbean.

Satellite views sure look innocent enough, so why is everyone getting over hyped about this disturbance?   In the words of James Carville, it's the models stupid!

We begin with the European which develops a low on Sunday south of Cuba, brings it across Cuba by Tuesday and into Florida's west coast NEXT Thursday.  IF this solution proves reality, we would see little to no impacts.  However, the GFS is not as encouraging.

The GFS is much slower & way farther to the west (closer to us) than the Euro.  What is concerning is the GFS pretty much sits Invest 98 L (Hermine) down over the Gulf (right over the loop current) for several days.   This solution would be terrible for the Florida Panhandle where the brunt of the storm's impacts hit.  We would be on the weak side, but it's too close for comfort.  Remember, there is NOTHING to track yet.   These are only model solutions 7-8 days out. Zack Fradella had these good graphics on his morning program.

The upper heat dome over us now will not be there next week.  In fact, an upper trough will bring down a front for Monday & Tuesday.  But Invest 98 L (Hermine) is still down in the Caribbean then.

So than cooler airmass will block/protect us early next week.  But after that, the upper trough leaves, the surface high shifts off the East coast allowing an avenue for whatever forms to head northward.  It's way too soon to know if that means we're in the clear and the storm stays east, or if we need to worry .  I'll let you know by Friday, if this is our storm or someone else's.  More model runs will likely flip-flop future tracks, but RIGHT NOW, we have nothing to track.  A Recon plane is scheduled to investigate this evening.

The main tropical story is major Hurricane Fiona, now a Cat. 4 leaving the Bahamas.  She will brush by Bermuda tomorrow and head towards Newfoundland well off the East coast.  She has that classic donut hole look of a major hurricane.

Back over the U.S., the southern heat dome lingers, but the cold air is coming with 50s & 60 dropping over the central Plains.  Note, we still have triple digit heat across Oklahoma , Arkansas into Tennessee.

There is a sharp temperature cooldown behind this next front.  It will finally put an end to the heat dome with much cooler air pushing to the Gulf Coast late Sunday.

With no rain around today, we are near a record high.  But relief is coming for next week.

Let's hope that front will block any system in the Gulf from coming our way, or delay it down over the Gulf until the next upper trough steers it to our east late next week.   Folks having plans for Disney World or the Florida beaches should not cancel yet.  Nobody is sure where whatever might form will go.   IF it stays weak , it could go into the Yucatan and not get into the Gulf. Or it might not ever organize because of the interaction with South America. IF it gets real organized and strong, it could be picked up and end up east of Florida.   So we watch for now.  Stay tuned!

Invest 98 L is at a much lower latitude and its nearness to the coast of South America should limit development in the short term.

The yellow arrow is Barbados and most of the storms are already along the coast and disorganized compare to Fiona in the bottom pic. Just me, but the clouds & storms appear to be heading onto South America.   So let's go through what the main models are doing with 98 L.  We begin with the GFS model.

It beings with what looks like a hurricane entering the Gulf NEXT Wednesday heading towards the Florida Panhandle & inland by late Friday east of Apalachicola.  The Euro is similar but farther to the east.

The Euro takes it NW of Tampa inland around Cedar Key.  If either solution proves valid, we would see no major impacts.  However, before you relax and not worry, these solutions are 7-10 days out, a time frame models are often NOT accurate.  For instance, here's the Canadian model that takes 98 L on a far southern route.

Could that happen?  Sure, especially if a cold front brings down a large blocking high forcing the system to stay south.  Bottom Line, it's way too early to know.  David said it best last night..." we are in the watch phase now, not the worry phase".    Plenty of days to follow whatever forms.

Hurricane Fiona has increased to a Cat. 3 with winds of 115 mph.  She's expected to reach Cat. 4 later tonight and will brush by Bermuda on Thursday.  Her structure is that classic donut look.  

What is concerning is she's developing over moderately warm waters compared to what's in the Caribbean & Gulf.   The bottom graphic is the Ocean heat content that has very warm water to great depths.  98 L (future Hermine) will travel over those hot waters.  Plenty of time to follow it.

The Gulf is staying quiet and that heat dome is still locked in place for th rest of this week.  Some drier air/lower dew points have rotated around the high.  Dry air heats up quicker as you see triple digit heat at Memphis.

There is cooler air moving into the northern Rockies and it hopefully will reach us before any tropical threat gets close.  A weak front will push through on Friday lowering humidity, but the real front arrives on Tuesday.

In the short term, we gonna fry!   No rain, few clouds equal temps way above normal (87) as we'll threaten records the next 2 days.   Astronomical Fall officially arrives on Thursday at 8:03 PM.

the western states are getting relief from a leftover tropical system and an upper low off the California coast.   It's not a lot of relief, but it's helping dampen down the wild fires.  Our relief is coming next week.  Stay tuned!

For the latest NHC track, click on the storm tracking button on my web page.  The rest of the Tropics look fairly tame. but there's much to watch.

There is a long trough with several lows stretching from the Gulf across the Carolinas & into the Atlantic.  Clearly, Hurricane Fiona stands out.   However, there is something behind Fiona.

It's a tropical wave east of Barbados and looks innocent enough right now.  However, both the GFS & Euro develop it once it reaches the Caribbean making it our next named storm (Gaston).

These graphics are from the GFS model and shows Fiona leaving this Friday in the top view.  The middle has Gaston south of Cuba NEXT Tuesday with the bottom into the Gulf on Friday Sept. 30th.  From there the GFS brings Gaston northward toward Lake Charles.

The bottom view is the Euro which takes it towards the Florida beaches.  We all know these models have done this before several times this summer and northing ever formed.   I don't get concerned about model "predictions/guesses" in the 10-14 day time frame.  Let's pay attention to that wave and hope it follows the pattern so far this summer of not developing.

That heat dome keeps us safe from tropical activity right now, but it is not likely to be there in 2 weeks. I'd much rather see an East coast Upper trough develop bringing down cold fronts that would block the storms from coming our way.  Not seeing that yet.

So in the absence of cold fronts, the heat is on this last week of Summer.  The Fall equinox arrives Thursday at 8:03 PM.  it certainly won't feel like it.  In fact, I grabbed the bottom graphics from Hannah Gard's noon program on FOX 8.  It may not be record heat, but we're gonna get very close.

We do have a couple of stray showers around, but most of us will stay dry.  That pattern continues until Friday when a weak front will arrive with slightly drier/less humid air.  No signs of a real cold front yet.  Stay tuned!

The top picture is the radar view with the next two being satellite views.  Clearly Fiona has become much better organized since yesterday.   NHC believes she will keep intensifying to a Cat. 3 before she threatens Bermuda later this week.

There are several other swirls out in the Atlantic, but none appear to be developing.  Closer in, the Caribbean is quiet.

There is nothing over the Gulf either, but look at the swirl inland of north central Florida.  No model does anything with this feature and NHC doesn't seem concerned.

So we start looking to the north for our next cold front.  They are 2 with the stroonger just coming into the Dakotas & Montana.  As Fiona recurves up the East coast, her circulation will help drag that front down to us by Friday & next weekend.  Until then, it's all about summer-like heat.

Parts of Kansas are near 100 degrees and we should be in the low to mid 90s until Friday.

We have seen a couple of showers bubble up during daytime heating today, but as an upper heat dome builds over us this week, rain chances will be near zero.  Models continue to show no tropical development in the Gulf for the next 7-10 days.  Finally...

There is obvious joy in Tampa Bay after the Saint's give away.  But much of the West Coast is happy as welcomed rains have arrived to help them battle & control all their fires.  Somehow, that doesn't make me feel better after watching 5 (That's FIVE!!!) turnovers.  Hey, it's just a game.  Looking at the videos coming out of Puerto Rico makes me realize what really is important.  Get those prayer lines going Gang.  Stay tuned!