There are two clusters of disorganized storms coming off of Africa and NHC has given the farthest westward one INVEST 94 L.  It is at a low latitude and should continue a due west track into next week.

Not all models keep 94 L (Eventually Bonnie) at the low latitude.  The Canadian bring it much farther to the north across Hispaniola and Cuba, potentially heading towards the eastern Gulf.

But that is one model.  The main global models keep it farther to the south.  First the Euro.

It brings soon to be Bonnie over the southern Caribbean into central America never getting into the Gulf.  The GFS is slightly different.

It brings Bonnie into the Yucatan reaching the extreme southern Gulf, but never threatening the northern Gulf.  Curiously, the GFS tries to form a weak low over the western Gulf early next week heading into Houston.   Right now, there is NOTHING to track so let's get back to the heat.

The heat dome is still there, but clusters of storms are getting more numerous.

Sooner or later we will get back to daily storms and then everyone will complain about being too wet.

Suck it up for another day or two gang.  Changes are coming for next week.

next week looks more like basic summertime for us...finally!  Stay tuned!

The bottom graphic is the Euro model's chances for Tropical Storm development in 7-10 days.  Since there is nothing there yet, all we can do is look at models.  First up is the GFS.

It certainly brings some kind of closed low into the Caribbean at day 7 and takes it straight westward into central America.  The Euro does the same, but...

The bottom graphic is the Canadian model that brings whatever might form way farther to the north.  In fact, it brings it over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  That would likely mean re-curvature into the Atlantic and away from us.  But again, there is NOTHING there yet.

The eastern Pacific continues active with a disturbance moving over the southern Caribbean.  An upper low is stalled off the Carolinas.  Otherwise, the main story continues to be our heat.

The Omega block is not as defined and the upper heat dome is shrinking with a cold front bringing folks to our north some relief.  In fact, look how the Northeast is in the 70s.

As the upper cap weakens, more clusters of storms have developed during daytime heating.  Hopefully we'll get under some of those storms as we head into the weekend.

A couple of storms are around, but not enough to offer much cooling.  Note Slidell is 100 again.

As rain chances increase, our daytime highs should be less hot.   That doesn't mean sweater weather.  After all, our daily normal/average high from now until the end of August is 90+.  Just do the common sense precautions if you're working or exercising outdoors.  Stay tuned!

Today's 96 ties the record and is the 18th day above normal/average.  Note the average temperature ((highs/lows divided by 2) so far is 84.8 degrees.   Only one other June has been hotter (2011) and that turned out to be our hottest summer ever.  So what could change all this heat?

The upper pattern is slowly changing.  The omega block is still there ( trough over west and off east coast, ridge between) but the strength of the upper high has weakened.  Note some storms have bubbled up to our north.

No we have no fronts coming, but I do think our daily shower chances will increase as we head towards the weekend.  Chicago was 95+ yesterday, but they're in the mid 80s today behind a cold front.

Some storms have fired off to our north but the coverage is well below average.  In the short term, expect little relief until the upper high weakens further.

The FOX 8 forecast is calling for near 100 for the next 3 days.  Hopefully by Sunday, storm chances increase bringing us some relief from this brutal heat.  Finally

The tropical Atlantic & Caribbean remain quiet while the Eastern Pacific stays active.  Several models are hinting that something might develop near the islands by the end of this month.  For now it looks like we'll get through June with only one named storm.  Stay tuned!

I know watching local weathercast & the networks make it seem this June Heat is the worst it's ever been.  But it is not.

It remains cool over the western states and New England so not everyone is suffering.   If we're going to whine every day about the heat,  we have a lot of whining to do.   My wine is chardonnay so it's a different kind of wine-ing.!

So my advice is simple.  Dress in comfortable clothes and sip some cool drinks inside withair-conditioning.  Life is good.  Stay tuned!

No, that is NOT Sean Payton sitting behind me!  I plotted the upper wind flow over the satellite loop that has a big trough over the western states, a huge ridge over the central plains and another deep trough along the East coast.  In meteorology, we call this an "Omega block" since the flow resembles the Greek letter Omega.   It's called a block since it often doesn't move much and can last for several weeks. blocking the typical west to east flow across the country.

Rotating around the upper high are several T-Storm complexes that often are called "ring of fire".  The modern language calls them "ridge riders".   If we can get the upper high to shift slightly westward, perhaps we can get one of these clusters to come drench & cool us?  Of course the media is over-hyping this current heat wave.  It's hot for sure, but we're heading into late June and it's SUPPOSED  to be hot.

Bruce had a graphic that showed how warm this June has been.

Only 2 days have been below normal/average with the next 3 days flirting with record heat.

The big surface high over the east is pumping the hot, humid air up to the Canadian border.  Note Minneapolis is 95 with a 70 dew point, almost just like us!   We have seen a few brief storms around today and that has helped cool down some folks.

If you're looking for some relief at this time of the year, you need to do what I did...get on a plane and head to where it's cooler.  the 7 day offers little encouragement, in fact pushing 100 later this week.

Finally, the Tropics remain quiet in our part of the world.  The Atlantic is quiet which is typical for June.  The Pacific has been more active, but the last 2 storms have stayed away from the Mexican coast.

Computer models are keeping the Atlantic & Caribbean quiet into early July.   I still think the total number of storms this year will be closer to normal/average (14) than the 18-22 most hurricane experts are calling for.  The longer we go without any named storms the better.  Glad to be back and hope you stay tuned!

The dark red "blob" around Blas indicates organization that is not apparent with the Caribbean disturbance.

Even if something were to develop, a large upper heat dome would turn it westward and not northward.

It's hotter up north than down south as Detroit is 96.  The upper trough over the Rockies is keeping the West chilly.

We are slightly above average/normal here, but look at Green Bay.  They are just as hot & humid, BUT they are nor acclimated to the heat.  Relief is coming for them, but not us.

If you want relief from our heat, you'll have to go out west or up to the northeast.  Besides a stray storm locally, the main story will be the mid to upper 90 degree heat.

I will be leaving for Boston tomorrow to attend the U.S. Open Golf tourney.  My brother-in-law & his wife are members of the Country Club at Brookline and they have invited us to be their guests.  So if you're watching the golf on TV, look for the "little fella".   It will be difficult for me to post during this time so I might not update until next Monday.  I will have my notebook just in case anything might develop.   Happy Father's day !

 Typically, when the eastern Pacific is active, the Caribbean & Atlantic is not.  But the area down over the extreme southern Caribbean does appear to have a surface spin to it.

Since T-Storms are limited around it, this disturbance (93L) will only slowly develop.  Hurricane models bring it across the Yucatan and keep it over the extreme southern Gulf.   It cannot come our way as a large blocking upper high will force it to go west into Mexico.

The current heat wave has extended up into Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Midway airport in Chicago reach 100 for the first time in 10 years.  The upper high will be forced back to the west as the deep upper low over Montana moves to the East coast

Note the cluster of storms over Georgia.  That system will head our way increasing rain chance for Thursday and Friday.  The 70+ dew points have reach into Wisconsin and Michigan making them feel what we feel for 4+ months.

Satellite views show few showers with the main rain pushing into Alabama and north Florida this afternoon.  Look to those storms to head our way late tomorrow, but especially on Thursday.

Spotty showers are our only relief from the sizzling summer heat from now until late September.  Finally,

The large fire north of Flagstaff has decrease while 2 new fires have erupted in New Mexico.   There was a sad story that one of the western fires was started by a Louisiana man who tried to light a camp fire with toilet paper.  A Darwin award winner for sure!  Stay tuned!

Right now the disturbed weather over the Caribbean is just an open wave in the Easterlies.   Even if it does developed, it will not be our problem as we have a strong Atlantic ridge at the surface and a blocking upper high that will force the system westward into the Yucatan and southern Gulf. There is an upper low over Mexico that will drift to the west.

In the short term, the upper high will keep rain chances BELOW NORMAL for the next 2-3 days.

The real heat is under the upper high.  With the Bermuda high pumping south winds off the Gulf, 70+ dew points have surged into Chicago & South Dakota.    They feel as miserable as us!

Satellite & radar views show how limited shower coverage is with none on the North Shore.  Without the rain, it's June hot and don't expect much relief until rain chances go back up towards the end of the week.

Finally, I've mentioned how I liked to pick out features on satellite pics.   Back in Marine Corps boot camp in 1970, I learned about "June Gloom".  It happened when the marine layer (clouds/cool temps) swept inland over night and then lingered much of the day until the sunshine burnt off/evaporated the clouds.  52 years later, it's still happening.

The top view is 10 AM with the bottom from 3 PM.  Now look at a huge fire in Arizona north of Flagstaff.

The smoke plume drifts all the way into Colorado.  Speaking of drifting, look at the Saharan dust pouring across the Atlantic.

And you thought nothing is going on!  Stay tuned!

Yesterday I circled two areas that had flared up, the NE Gulf and the extreme southern  Caribbean.  The

Gulf disturbance isn't doing much nor is the Caribbean.  However models (especially the GFS as usual) develop a storm off the Yucatan.  NHC has hatched in that area, but only give it a low (20%) chance to happen.  Again, any development is for next weekend way down by the Yucatan.

In the short term, we still have an upper heat ridge centered to our west that will slowly drift near us for the next 2-3 days.

The Weather Channel & the networks are way overhyping this heat dome.  Sure it's hot and some cities are breaking records, but it's June and phoenix, las Vegas and west Texas are always hot in June.  What we're not seeing today is clusters of T-Storms rotating around the upper high from the NW.

Earlier showers have fizzled, but the lingering cloud cover have made many less hot.

It appears our rain chances will stay well below normal until later in the week.  The usual common sense heat precautions should be followed.  Stay tuned!

Using the looping feature, you can clearly see the upper high to our west centered over Oklahoma with clusters of storms rotating around it (ring of fire).  Now look what's under the upper high.  Temps 100+.

Add in dew points into the mid to upper 70s and that's a real weather story.  But very few story tell anymore.  Let's just show the models.  If you don't show me what is happening now, how can I be sure the model initializes correctly?   Nah. just show me the models.  Sad.

We do have some storms around this afternoon giving cooling relief to some while others are baking.  As that upper high drifts to the east the next several days, look for our rain chances to go to near zero while our temperatures climb to the mid to upper 90s.

In the "good old days" before technology/computers/models, forecasters used knowledge + experience (gut feelings) to earn your trust.   Now it's all about what do the models say?  Stay tuned!

We had several bullseys for heavy rainfall on both sides of the Lake.  I had 4.91" at my house close to Bonnabel & I-10.  "But there's more" as Lee Zurik would say.

We could easily see another 1-2" on top of what we had this morning.  SPC has most of south LA/MS under a severe T-Storm Watch until 8-9 PM.

the upper high remains just to our west and these upper disturbances are rotating around the "ring of fire".  We have several weak frontal boundaries that are enhancing the rain coverage.  The real heat is staying back over Texas where Houston touched 100 earlier today.  We are in the rain cooled air thank you.  It felt good!

As the upper high builds back over us, rain chances will decrease as temperatures increase into next week.   Models are hinting at a tropical/easterly wave moving over us by Thursday increasing our rain chances again.

The Eastern Pacific could see some tropical development, but models and NHC are keeping the Caribbean & Gulf quiet for the next 7-10 days.  Enjoy your weekend and stay alert for more storms tonight.

Today's 60% rain chance is over the North Shore for now, but it could spread over the South Shore later.  Tomorrow's models are even more bullish on PM storms.  I captured these graphics from David's 4 PM program.

The middle picture is the SPC's severe risk which places us in the level 2 (slight) severe risk on Friday.

The upper ridge over the Rockies will spread over us by Sunday cutting off the PM Storms and allowing us to approach record highs next week.

Those spending their 1st summer in SE LA/MS are probably complaining about the heat.  Us "old-timers" need to remind them WAIT TILL AUGUST!   We have at least 3 more months of this stuff folks.  Let's remember to stay hydrated & wear hats & sunscreen if spending time outdoors. Yea I saw the GFS continues to develop a storm in the Gulf in the 8-10 day time frame.  It's done that before and nothing happened.   Focus on those storms pounding the North Shore & Mississippi coast.  Stay tuned!

Rotating around that upper ridge (ring of fire) will be clusters of T-storms that might get down to us later this week.  Without the daily storms, expects highs to be 90+.  That's a far cry from 1980 (second hottest summer) when we already were in the middle 90s.

So rather than whining about the heat, let's focus on how lush our gardens look from the 14+ hours of daylight.  Yea we have to water more often, but we all know the rains will come.

There is a cluster of storms passing to our north today with another round coming out of the Rockies.  The really extreme heat is confined to areas from Phoenix to El Paso to Corpus.  It certainly is not record heat.

We should be mostly dry again tomorrow with an increase in storms late Thursday PM through Saturday as a backdoor" front tries to reach us.  That doesn't look likely and the upper high builds back over us for next week pushing us to near record highs.  Since the weather has turned boring, (no tropical activity in the next 7-10 days), I'm going fishing with Captain Hylton.  Will post late Thursday.  Stay tuned & stay cool!

The extreme heat is confined to west & south Texas, but we'll creep into the low to mid 90s for the next 2-3 days.   Later this week we should see a ring of fire pattern develop around the ridge with some storms "backdooring" into us from the NE by Friday.

Satellite views show the clear skies to our west with the clouds & storms to our north and east.  Note the dew points are 70+ around us indicating plenty of low level moisture that could produce a pop up daytime heating storm.  

All the action today is well to our east and should be that way again Tuesday & Wednesday.

Rain chances do increase over the weekend, but that just means we're back to basic summertime. Finally,

The plume of Saharan dust is evident all the way into the Caribbean.  That will keep the Tropical Atlantic quiet which, historically doesn't get active until mid July.  IF we see any development in the next 10-14 days, it will be closer in.  The GFS is at it again forming a storm over the eastern Gulf at 14 days.  It's done that before.  Stay tuned!

So what's next?  I remember the Notre Dame fight song.  Use that melody with these lyrics.

Cheer Cheer for Saharan dust add in some wind shear, hurricane season a bust!  Well I know it's early, but look at the dust coming.

That dust layer will cap any tropical activity coming from the Atlantic so any threat will have to be in close during the next 2-3 weeks.  Models are not seeing much so I'm hoping we might get through June with just one named storm.

We have the typical June set up with a steamy South and several frontal boundaries across the North.  The real 100+ heat is confined to western & south Texas.

With daytime heating, slow moving storms drenched some areas with even some small hail reported in Jefferson Parish.

MSY recorded an inch of rain and you can see how the clouds and showers cooled off some folks.

The only relief from the heat this week will be a stray, spotty T-Storm.  get use to it.  We have a long way until August!  Stay tuned!

So even if Alex is named, the 1st named storm will have had only minor (mainly flooding) impacts on the U.S.  There is nothing out there that we will follow for the next 7-10 days.  But the GFS is up to its old bias at 14 days bringing a storm into the southern Gulf.  

We have seen this before with nothing forming so I'm not getting nervous at all.

The radar view at 10 pm has much of the rain shield already pulling to the east of Florida.  Let's hope most of the predicted storms (20+) this season struggle like PTC # 1.

Otherwise, our weather is Summer in the South, hot & humid with spotty storms.  Enjoy your weekend and, yes, I enjoyed Top Gun, Maverick.   Great scenery, thrilling and then there's 59 year old Tom Cruise who looks great.  The Lady Gaga song at the end was perfect.  Stay tuned!

The only difference I see today is the NHC's center line track forecast has shifted farther to the south meaning less impacts for central Florida.  You can see how disorganized PTC 1 is.

I tried to indicate where the center might be (arrow/hand) on the color & radar views.   It's obvious upper wind shear continues to make this a lop sided system.  It will be a heavy rain event for Cuba & south Florida, but they have been alerted and should be ready for some street flooding.  I'll update later this evening.  Stay tuned and rock 'em Maverick!

It's not a sure thing that Alex will be named as stron upper wind shear continues.  This has blown the heaviest storms well east of the surface low with a mid level spin near the brightest (reds) colors.

David had an excellent detailed rain potential graphic on his 4 PM program showing a narrow band of 12" amounts.  Compare that to the more general NHC graphic calling for 6-10 ".