Bob Brecks Blog

Fronts Still Coming Bringing great Fall Weather...

Sun, 27 Sep 2020 22:06:06 GMT

There has been no change in the thinking regarding the coming cold fronts. The first will arrive late on Monday with the second coming late Thursday.

these are not Arctic fronts, but they will be very noticeable. Check the dew point drops behind the front in Oklahoma & Texas. We have one more warm summer-like day on Monday with the rest of the week turning delightful with sunny, pleasantly warm days (70s) and comfy cool nights (50s & 60s).

there could be a few showers with the front, but I'm not expecting any widespread, prolonged heavy rainfall. In fact, it looks like we'll stay dry for the next 7-10 days after tomorrow.

The Tropics remain quiet although there are hints of a southern Gulf disturbance in the second week in October. The California fires are still on going, but not as bad as several weeks ago. I will be fishing tomorrow so I might not post again till Tuesday. Stay tuned!

Fall Feeling Is Coming...

Sat, 26 Sep 2020 19:50:01 GMT

After a long, hot summer, 99% of us look forward to those first Fall fronts that take away the humidity and bring cooler temps. We know that colder air will come later, but these first fronts usually are delightful. I saw some of you new to south LA/M complain about missing the changing of the colors that happens up north. How do you like these pictures?

So you're right, we won't see these colors, but then again, we won't see below zero temps or snow covering the ground for 1-2 months either.

The tropical Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf remain quiet with the only swirl I find is east of the Bahamas & north of Puerto Rico. NHC has not mentioned it as an area to watch. So let's look for our cold front.

Montana has dropped into the 40s & 50s and the timing on that front reaching us is just near dark on Monday. As you can see our dew points have returned to near 70 and we'll have 2 more days of the muggies before the change arrives. There should be a secondary surge of cool air on Thursday, but that 3rd front for next weekend doesn't look likely.

We had some showers around this morning and that cloud cluster has moved NE into MS/AL. Winds are light with seas almost flat so all the earlier high water should have receded. Let's hope that's it for this season. No models have anything coming into the Gulf for the next 10-14 days. Stay tuned!

3 Cold Fronts Coming Next Week...

Fri, 25 Sep 2020 23:51:29 GMT

This weekend will still feel a little summer-like into Monday, but then several waves of cooler air will surge down from the north making the first week of October feel delightful. Below is the upper air map for Tuesday midday showing a sharp dip in the jet stream that creates a deep trough over the east.

The middle chart is the upper air for Friday morning telling me there will be several fronts coming down out of Canada. The air in southern Canada is not too chilly yet, but look farther to the north and it's below freezing. I expect the first front to arrive after dark on Monday with the 2nd re-enforcing front by Friday and another over the weekend. Each one should be a little cooler so that by Friday nights on the North Shore will be in the 50s and also away from Lake P. south. With these fronts coming, you might be singing "turn out the lights, the party's over!". However, several model runs are hinting that there will be some tropical development in the southern Gulf in the 10-14 time frame. Do I expect any more major hurricane threats here? Nope since the water temps have cooled across the northern Gulf from Laura & Sally. Lake Pontchartrain was 85-88 during Laura and now it's in the 75-78 range. I am holding off on calling "The Fat Lady" to sing until I see how really strong these coming fronts turn out to be. In the short term, we have no fronts coming this weekend. Temps are held down due to cloud cover & showers along the east coast & Gulf South, but note how warm it still is at Omaha & Denver. At least our dew points have dropped into the 60s making it feel nice outside.

We have seen some low clouds linger over us at times even through Beta is long gone.

These clouds should gradually dissipate as I don't expect much rainfall until the front arrives Wednesday evening. Most of next week then turns dry & cooler.

Right now the Tropics are asleep and our focus shifts from off of Africa to the Western Caribbean & Gulf. Historically, we can get Hurricanes here into late October (Juan 1985), but after the first 7-10 days of the month, no major hurricane (evacuation required) has crossed the LA. Coastline during modern times. I'm liking our odds that we are done for this season, except for some threat that will be steered well to our south and east as the fronts start coming and get stronger. Stay tuned!

The Tropics have Gone to Sleep...

Thu, 24 Sep 2020 21:03:20 GMT

After 3 weeks of non-stop action, it's so nice not to have to talk about any storms or hurricanes. In fact, let's pick up on where we left off yesterday talking about next week's cold front.

Above is the upper air chart for Tuesday morning showing a big dip (East Coast Trough) in the steering that will drive a real cold front down into the Gulf. No it won't get you running for the heavy coats, but we might need some sweaters/light jackets by Wednesday morning. The timing has changed slightly with the front now expected to arrive on Tuesday instead of on Wednesday.

So let's start by looking for some cooler air. On the surface map are several fronts, but none are the real deal. What's left of Beta now NW of Birmingham and the weak fronts rotating around it have brought us drier surface air. higher up, the moisture lingers as an extensive cloud deck goes back into Texas.

It may take another day for the clouds to break up, but no rain is expected. The biggest impact now are the falling high water levels as winds and seas have decreased, plus the wind direction shifted to the west pushing water out of the Lake & marshes.

The best news is none of the computer models are finding any tropical development for the next 10-14 days.

That is not surprising since the MJO has jumped into the unfavorable (sinking air) phase over the MDR. We'll need to pay close attention to the western Caribbean & southern Gulf for development closer to home. Once that front pushes into the Gulf late next week, I'll be watching to see if any spin up tries to form. Until then, enjoy the Quiet. Stay tuned!

I'm Beginning to Get Excited About Cooler Air...

Wed, 23 Sep 2020 21:18:53 GMT

As most of you know, I hate cold air. I grew up in NW Indiana (Hammond) & went to Ann Arbor for college. I remember the brutal winters in the late 70s & early 80s with one headline in the Chicago Sun Times blaring...."Minus 82 degree Windchill!". I was born up there and didn't know any better. My parents said cold winters are "normal". But my 1st job took me to Tampa (82 degrees on Christmas Day!) then to Dayton (cold winters there too) before New Orleans called. 42 winters later, NOLA is my home now.

So why am I excited about cold air coming? We all know cold air kills hurricanes. Nuf said! The top graphic is the 500 mb (18,000') flow predicted for NEXT Wednesday. That huge dip in the steering will drag down colder air in Canada into the U.S. and all the way off the Louisiana coast. Hey, it's not January cold, but there are many 30s,40s & 50s. Is it time to place a call to the "Fat Lady"? I might send her a text just to check to see when she's available. October might get off to a chilly start and that would be nice.

But we're not done with the heat & humidity just yet. The remains of Beta have turned our winds back off the Gulf and look at how our dew points have jumped into the 70s. Once the center passed to our east tomorrow, a NW flow will bring in some drier air.

The center of Beta is now accelerating across central Louisiana with the bulk of the rain shield farther to our west and north where a tornado watch is in effect until 10 PM. That severe weather will stay to our NW. Winds are finally shifting from the east to the SE and later tonight to the south. During the day on Thursday winds should become SW and eventually more westerly and that will allow high water levels to fall dramatically.

Our high waters have not been caused by rainfall, but by persistent easterly winds from Beta. that will finally change.

The Tropics are going to sleep for at least a week, perhaps longer. October cold fronts coming mean it's about time to "turn out the lights, the party is over!" Stay tuned!

Beta Entering Western Louisiana.

Wed, 23 Sep 2020 16:53:10 GMT

The leftover circulation of Beta is about to cross the Sabine River and enter western Louisiana. The heaviest rainfall has pulled farther to the north and east where 3-5" amounts are possible from Monroe across MS/AL on over towards Atlanta.

In fact, there are very few showers around the center which you can see as Beaumont's winds are NE while Pt. Arthur has SW winds. There are some squalls rotating onshore over SE LA, but as long as no training of storms occurs, our amounts should stay under an inch.

So once Beta moves out, we start to look to the north for our next cold front. No signs of it coming in the short term, but you can see Canada is getting chilly with many locations below freezing. The blocking high over the east coast will drift offshore allowing Beta's remains to start accelerating.

Since we are still on the wet side of this system, you can see how the 70+ dew points are back. Until Beta passes to our east, wind directions will stay off the Gulf piling water up into our marshes.

The way things are setting up now, this weekend looks to see plenty of sunshine, seasonally warmth temps. and mostly dry weather. I might post later today as several models are hinting of tropical development in the 10-14 day time frame. Stay tuned!

NHC Issues Final Advisory On Beta...

Tue, 22 Sep 2020 21:22:49 GMT

Tropical Depression Beta continues to weaken as its motion to the NE is slowly increasing. Satellite views confirm the weakening trend as there are no more T-Storms rotating around it, plus the storms off the Mouth of the River have also decreased.

Since the center is expected to stay inland as Beta accelerates to the NE, no further strengthening will occur and the rainfall predictions continue the trend of calling for less rain for us.

Now most of SE LA/MS will receive less than an inch as the heavier showers south of our coast are expected to weaken and move to our east. That doesn't mean Tomorrow will be a sunny day. As what's left of Beta travels to our west and north, its circulation will keep the onshore flow that might have some bands of heavy downpours move across us. But I do think we might even see some sunny breaks.

So why has Beta finally started to move? Check out all the pressure falls now happening over south LA/MS. The large high that was waiting for Hurricane Teddy to move by, is now drifting off to the east. That will result in Beta moving across us and into MS & AL and gradually weakening.

Our dew points are rising and you'll notice that tropical feel is back. Don't think summer-like heat is over just because we're now officially in Fall.

Look at the heat into the Dakotas! Until they start to cool down, we're likely to be back into the high 80s for late this week with maybe even hitting 90 again. Ugh! I don't see any real fronts for the next 5-7 days.

Finally, my previous post talked about the MJO. The top graphic shows the current MJO today with the next being valid for next week. The orange to brown areas are sinking air that shifts farther into the Atlantic next week. Look how that has shut down the MDR (Main Development Region) and even over Africa. We will not have to worry about any tropical system coming across the Atlantic into the Caribbean and Gulf. IF we are to have anymore threats this season, it will form in close.

NHC highlights one such area near south Florida along the old frontal boundary brought southward by Teddy. Don't worry as they point out chance are very low (10%). Unless something goofy happens, I probably won't post again until tomorrow. Thanks to all of you who have joined "My Gang". I appreciate all your comments. Stay tuned!

So What Happened to the MJO? After Further Review...

Tue, 22 Sep 2020 17:04:59 GMT

Several of you have asked about what happened to the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) during Sally & Beta? Remember we were supposed to be in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase during Sally. yet she still strengthened. So what's up with that?

These 3 graphics show the MJO today followed by the next 2 weeks. Sally was last week so you'll have to imagine a shift farther to the west of the MJO's bullseye. The top graphic has the center of the sinking air out over the Tropical Atlantic extending westward into the Caribbean. Note the Gulf is barely in that phase so I assume when Sally was over the northern Gulf, the center of the sinking air was too far to the south & east. While there has been lots of activity these past 2 weeks, nothing has happened in the Caribbean & Wilfred quickly died out in the Atlantic. In fact, the tracks of all those storms coming off of Africa have been turning to the north going around the center of sinking air. For the next 2 weeks, that center keeps shifting farther over the MDR (Main Development Region) so I'll be surprised to see any more systems form coming off of Africa. We go into the neutral phase during the next 2 weeks, so if we see any development it will have to be much closer to home (Gulf, Western Caribbean)

Note how the recent tracks have all curved back to the north avoiding the center of sinking air. The season of long track storms coming off of Africa is over for us based on what I'm seeing with the MJO. I am not ready to call in The Fat Lady to sing just yet since I'd like to see several real cold fronts come down here as we get into October. Once beyond the 10th I'll feel more relaxed. Back to our Gulf Storm...

Beta was down graded to a Tropical Depression at 10 AM. The forward motion to the NE has begun, but the pace is only 2 mph. A band of heavy squalls keeps rotating in over Galveston & Houston, but the heavy squalls sitting off our coast appear separated from Beta's circulation. The main factors in Beta's lack of development were upper SW wind shear and cooler and drier air surrounding it.

Note the colder (reds & yellows) cloud tops are along our coast, but most of that rain should stay there for today. I do expect that band will begin moving on shore tonight & Wednesday, but current rain forecasts have most of us seeing less than 2". The big picture remains the same.

Hurricane Teddy's circulation has driven a cold front well down past Florida into Cuba. Not only is this a dry airmass (note all the 40,50 & 60s dew points), but it is a record setting cold airmass. As Teddy finally pulls out and the surface high begins to drift off the East Coast, we should see TD Beta start to pick up forward speed to the NE by tomorrow. That frontal boundary down in the Gulf should start to move back toward Florida and NHC has a slight (10%) chance for development there.

It's just something to watch, but it won't be our problem. As Beta weakens, our winds and seas are slowly decreasing.

However, our high water levels outside the levees will fall painfully slowly until we can get the wind direction back out of the west. That won't happen until what's left of Beta staggers past us to our north and east late Thursday into Friday. Better, brighter days are coming Gang as this has been a long, dreary stretch of ugly weather. Next update after 4 PM. Oh, did I mention we are now no longer in Summer? Stay tuned!

Beta Barely Tropical Storm, Stalling Inland...

Tue, 22 Sep 2020 13:29:57 GMT

Yesterday I mentioned the radical turn to the NE that most models predicted would be a true test IF that happened. NHC still believes that will happen with only a few small shifts. The center of Beta has moved farther inland overnight resulting in a shift that now keeps the center over land as it moves back to the NE.

It's better for us the farther west & north Beta's center goes, but right now it has come to a halt. So let's go over what I feel has kept most of the rain away from us so far.

We continue to be in lower dew points, but the tropical feel is just hovering along our coast. Hurricane teddy's circulation has forced a cold front way down through Florida and you can see the cold air clouds over the Atlantic and eastern Gulf. Once Teddy head farther to the north, that will allow the blocking high to drift off the east coast resulting in Beta finally making the move to the NE later today and tonight. This surge of dry air around Beta has reduced the rain forecast for us even further. Now most of SE LA/MS is only 1-2".

Some suburbs south of Houston have received over a foot of rain. the question for us is what to do with the glob south of our coast?

We remain under a Flood Watch just because of the slight possibility this could head over us. RIGHT NOW, it is staying offshore.

Winds and seas keep coming down as Beta weakens. Our high water levels will only slowly fall since the winds remain easterly. I'll update again later this afternoon. Stay tuned!

Beta Staggers to Coast...

Tue, 22 Sep 2020 03:34:19 GMT

Almost like watching a repeat of Sally's movement tonight as Beta is now crawling to the NW at 3 mph. For most of us, this is getting real old. there is no change in the NHC thinking or track.

There has been no change in intensity and Beta will likely remain a storm until later tomorrow. So the question remains for us...how much, if any rain will we get as Beta passes to our NW. The model predictions again call for less total rainfall amounts for SE LA & MS., generally 1-2".

As I have mentioned in previous posts, Hurricane Teddy's circulation keeps drawing down drier air down to the Gulf coast. Without the deep tropical moisture around like with Sally, the heavy rain threat has diminished. you can see the cold front has pushed into the Bahamas and through south Florida.

There still is that bright cluster south of our coast, but it is now totally separated from Beta.

There has been a recent burst of storms around the center, but radar has it about to make landfall.

Hopefully the center will move inland and will keep decreasing as that would allow out high water levels to slowly subside.

Seas are lower, but it'll take time for the water to fall. Worse yet, Saints played like our weather...AWFUL! Let's go to sleep and, after further review, look at Beta tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Beta Nearing Coast Making Landfall in Texas...

Mon, 21 Sep 2020 21:30:04 GMT

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Many of you have already contributed and we thank you. We are still short of our fundraising goal and hope some of you can help us get over the top.

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All the children thank you too!

It is difficult to find a well defined center of Beta on Satellite views. In fact, I'm seeing several swirls rotating around the center.

The top pic is the current daylight view with the middle being the water vapor view from noon that showed dry air encircling the storm. the bottom is the current WV view that has even less storm activity around the center. NHC has lowered the max winds down to 45 mph and slightly slowed the forward motion now NW at 5 mph. They still forecast Beta to basically stall once inland and then make the move back to the NE by late Tuesday PM.

The new center line track has been shifted back southward that could bring Beta's center back over the Gulf Tuesday night & Wednesday. However, NHC mentions that the cooler, drier air environment surrounding Beta SHOULD keep it from regaining strength. Radar views have the center 10-15 miles off the coast with much of its circulation already over land.

The dry air wrapping around Beta has taken its toll. The northern feeder band has pulled well to the north with a wide area of dry air diminishing the radar returns. The question for us remains where will the cluster of squalls off the mouth of the River go? Will they move inland over us? maybe, but the drier air coming down from the Northeast has lowered the rain totals.

Now the rain prediction is for 1-2" over SE LA/MS with the 3-5" totals remaining off shore.

Our brisk east winds continue to pile water into the marshes resulting in widespread flooding outside the levee protection system. Conditions will slowly improve as the winds from Beta diminish, but it won't be until the weekend before water levels get back to normal.

I've mentioned in previous posts Hurricane Teddy moving up the east coast would stall a large area of high pressure centered over Maine. Dew points in the 40s have plunged down into Georgia with 60s into central Florida and all along the northern Gulf. That's a vast different atmosphere than for Sally last week and will be why Beta's rain totals will be much lower.

Finally, do you care that NHC is watching an area over south Florida for development? I didn't think so. Next update tonight around 10 PM. I just would like to see the sun again! Stay tuned!

Beta , A Real Test of the Models...

Mon, 21 Sep 2020 16:13:07 GMT

We all know the past 2 storms have been "strange" and not typical well behaved Tropical systems. I'm sometimes at a lost as to why NHC sticks to their guidance, except I know they basically are married to going with models. The 10 AM Recon information has increased Beta's forward speed to 7 mph meaning it will reach the coast later this afternoon. The new NHC track though changes nothing as they stall the storm for tonight and Tuesday just inland before moving the center line out to the NE on Wednesday.

This will be a true test to the accuracy of the models as you can see almost all stall it and then radically change direction to the NE. Here's my take on what we should be looking for. IF this increase in forward motion continues through landfall, then I believe the center of Beta could move farther inland and get its circulation away from the Gulf. That would be what we want as once over land, wind speeds will decrease (already down to barely 50 mph) and perhaps the rainfall potential will decrease too.

IF the rainfall forecast proves correct (I don't think it will), areas just to the west of NOLA could receive 5-10" during the next 5-7 days with the city proper 3-5". Let me go over the meteorology I see as to why I feel that is too high.

The top pic shows the Water Vapor having drier air wrapping all around Beta separating it from the storms off our coast. The question then is, will the band of moisture off our coast hang together and move inland over us?

That could happen, but I go back to all the drier air that has been brought down from the north enhanced by the circulation around Hurricane Teddy moving up the East coast.

Dew points in the 40s are almost down to northern Florida and I believe this cooler and drier airmass will keep any rainfall we do receive from becoming excessive. Our main issue is all the high water being forced into SE LA. by the interaction of Beta with the strong surface high.

You can see winds are 15-25 with gust to near 40, but also see that none of the pressure reports have the barometer falling indicating the high is holding while Beta drifts farther away. The wind direction is more easterly now and that has tides & seas way up with flooding outside the levees.

Our high water won't come down until Beta gets inland and the winds die down. that is not likely to happen before Wednesday at the soonest.

So let's pay attention to see if that faster motion continues and the rand band off our coast remains offshore. Oh, NHC is still watching something over Florida. This warm loving fella can't wait for the October cold air! Next update after 4 PM. Stay tuned!

Beta is Creeping to West & is Creepy...

Mon, 21 Sep 2020 03:28:20 GMT

I know many of you have expressed frustration regarding the tracking of both Sally & Beta as their slow movement was erratic and unpredictable. Look at the Satellite views of Beta tonight.

The top pic was from midday when Beta had a burst of storms around the center while the bottom is near current. There has been a total collapse in all T-Storms around the center so obviously you knew NHC would not strengthen it on their 10 PM advisory. Forward motion remains WNW at 6 mph which is slow but still way faster than Sally's 2-3 mph. There latest track is unchanged taking beta inland near Victoria, almost stalling before moving slowly to the NE.

Normally, that would not be good for us as that center line track keeps us on the wet side. However, the environment around Beta is far different than when Sally was here. A cold front has pushed well down into the Gulf bringing a huge slug of cooler and drier air.

Look at those dew points in the 40s & 50s to our north. In addition, surface pressures are RISING all around us. look at the hourly report showing northing but Rs next to the pressure.

That tells me the surface high continues to build in. I mentioned this in previous posts about how Hurricane Teddy's movement up off the East coast would block the high from moving into the Atlantic. In fact, his circulation would bring the center of the high into the Carolinas.

What I believe that will do is push Beta farther to the west into Texas and maybe even dissipate her to a weak low by Wednesday. NHC is not calling for that as they are following the computer models. Look what the dry air is doing to the rain that has tried to move northward along our coast.

While most of the squalls around Beta have diminished, so has the area to our south off the mouth of the river.

In fact, the brightest cluster of storms is over Florida with a weak area of low pressure. NHC gives that disturbance a ZERO chance to develop.

Finally, all the guidance still calls for the POTENTIAL for heavy rainfall during the next 3-5 day all along the northern Gulf coast. My gut tells me that is not likely IF surface high pressure continues to build in from the NE. Oh we could see some rainfall IF Beta makes the move back to the NE later this week. I just think the cooler & drier air will take its toll on this tropical system. Our main issues tonight are the gusty winds driving high water into areas outside the Levee protection system. Could Beta have another burst of storms around it tonight? Sure, but I'm thinking the squalls/storms off our coast will stay there, at least for the next 2 days. We'll give it another look tomorrow morning. Stay tuned!

Why All The Winds here?

Sun, 20 Sep 2020 21:36:49 GMT

The 4 PM NHC update is in and it keeps T.S. Beta moving slowly to the WNW at 6 mph AWAY from us moving inland north of Corpus late Monday into Tuesday.

It becomes a depression on Wednesday as it turns back to the NE and begins a faster forward motion for Thursday & Friday. So one of my friends living on the 9th floor downtown asked me why so windy if the storm is not coming here?

Our current wind speeds on the South Shore down to the coast are 20-30 with gusts to 40+. Tides have risen as the direction shifted more easterly and there is widespread high water outside the levee protection system. I've mentioned before what is happening here is more like a winter like situation where cold air from the north is moving over the water Gulf waters. The physics of that set up means the air over the Gulf rises with the colder air accelerating along the coasts rushing in to rep[lace the rising air.

60s & 70s from us back into Florida are diving down into the Gulf. Look at how low the dew points are to our NE. All of this cooler and drier air should mean our rain fall totals will not be as heavy as earlier projected.

The top graphic is from this morning while the bottom is just issued. Clearly the earlier 15-20+" totals are now 10-15" at worst and could even drop further as more dry air is drawn into the center. Satellite views have shown that happening this afternoon.

There was a burst of storms fire off midday with even the hints of an eye trying to pop out. But look at the last color pic that has that burst fading. We still have 2 separate rain areas on radar and the one to our SE is not rotating back around to Beta.

My hope is that when Beta does make the move back to the NE, that area over the Gulf will have weakened as more cooler and drier air moves in. But there's a wild card.

NHC still give a weak swirl a slight chance to develop. Radar returns have increased this afternoon. What might that do to the storms to our SE? Hey, at this stage, I don't know. It's more wait and see. Next update around 10 PM. Stay tuned!

2020 Strange Hurricane Season Continues...

Sun, 20 Sep 2020 16:26:20 GMT

Before I get into my thoughts on this strange season, let's go over what most of you already know. Beta remains a Tropical Storm and it has begun the westward drift that will slowly take it to the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi late Monday into Tuesday.

This aims the wind and surge impacts on Texas along with the heaviest rain threat. However, as I pointed out on past posts, we (Louisiana & Mississippi) will stay on the "wet side" of this system and we need to be aware that keeps the POTENTIAL of heavy, flooding rains here too.

granted, the rains totals for the next 7 days have been reduced from yesterday (probably due to the cooler and drier air around it), there still are 10-15"+ amounts possible. Satellite views show a cluster of storms are around the center of Beta with a dry slot rotating around the south & eastern side up towards us. However, do you see that bright band of squalls far removed from Beta just off the mouth of the River extending down into the Gulf? That is our concern IF it holds together since, when Beta makes the turn back to the NE late Monday & Tuesday, that band will move northward on to land. Our local NWS office indicated that band could create a "training effect" resulting in some flash flooding under the band. It's something to keep an eye on. Now on to this strange season that has seen a record number of storms with 4 already having Louisiana impacts. What else might surprise us?

Well, NHC now is watching a well defined low level swirl that is over central Florida moving to the WEST towards the Gulf. They give it a very low (10%) chance to develop, but in this year, anything can and will happen! What impact would this be to Beta if any? I haven't a clue. What I still do see is Hurricane Teddy being our friend and "Beta Blocking" the storm away from us in the short term.

The large surface high remains centered over the Northeast and normally would pull off into the Atlantic. But both the GFS (American) model and the Euro. bring Teddy very close to the east coast off of Cape Cod by Tuesday morning. Notice how his circulation brings down the center of high pressure into the Carolinas forcing Beta to keep moving to the west. The questions after that are these. 1) What will be left of Beta drawing in the cooler and drier air into it? 2) If Beta retains its tropical core and begins an accelerated motion to the NE, will that bring the flooding rain band currently over the Gulf across us? 3) How much of the cooler and dry air reaches us? So many uncertainties to deal with. let's first look at the cooler and drier air.

Dew points (top graphic) have dipped into the 40s !!! as close as Birmingham and Atlanta and will that dryness continue to press our way? Also, the airmass all across the Gulf coast from Texas to northern Florida is much cooler than last week when Sally was around. You have to go south of Tampa & Orlando to get back into a summer like airmass. My hope is the cooler & drier air win out, weaken Beta into a remnant low over east Texas, cutoff the current heavy rain band in the east central Gulf and eliminate the earlier heavy rain threat from a slow moving storm. Possible? Sure. Likely? Probably not.

So let's look at this band of squalls over the Gulf far removed from Beta's center. We obviously have two separate entities as some dry air has wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of Beta. Will the band to our SE try to wrap back around Beta later today? That would bring the rain shield back over us later this afternoon. We don't want that to happen. I'll be watching closely to see if that occurs. Locally, we are dealing with some brisk, gusty winds that have shifted from yesterday's NE direction to ENE. That has started to increase seas (4-5" yesterday to 8-10" now) and tides with high water again outside the levee system.

We are not likely to see much improvement to these winds and high water for most of this coming week. If there is any benefit to Beta, it's the cloud cover and rainfall (1.45" at my house) that kept yesterday & today's highs below 80. It's almost "chilly in Gentilly!" Next update coming around 4 PM. Stay tuned!

Beta Being Blasted...

Sun, 20 Sep 2020 03:25:24 GMT

What the heck is going on? Satellite and radar loops are showing Beta is a system that is being attacked by Dry air and upper shear that has certainly weakened its appearance tonight.

Once we lose the daylight pictures, it's very hard to spot a surface center. However, let me try.

The top pic shows where I think the center is (arrow), but look at the lack of the bright colors/colder cloud tops. The water vapor shows extremely dry air west of beta and some SW shear over us. Radar returns have diminished dramatically during the past several hours and surface pressure are RISING!

NHC is still keeping the max winds at 60 mph, but that's only over a small area. They agree it has weakened and that is reflected in their intensity forecast that does not make this a hurricane. Here's the 10 pm updated track.

Even though Beta's current motion is NNE at 2 mph, all guidance indicates it must turn to the west. Plus look at the intensity guidance that really weakens it to a weak Tropical Storm or even a Depression as it nears the Texas Coast. So what will make Beta go west. As I explained on an earlier post, Hurricane Teddy could be a main reason as he moves up the east coast blocking the exit of a large, cold surface high over the northeast. Take a look at what is now and what the GFS model predicts for next Tuesday.

Since our surface pressures are going up, that tells me Beta can't push out the building high and must move to the west. More importantly, look at the drier dew points that are being drawn into Beta.

This system could just weaken down to a weak area of low pressure during the next 2 days. regardless, the impacts here and over in Texas will be the heavy rain potential.

Most of the 10-15" amounts are still focused on the upper Texas coast and along the LA. coast from Pt. Fourchon westward. One thing that is happening locally is our seas are increasing as the surface wind direction shifts from the NE around to more easterly. Look for tides to remain above normal for the next several days.

Our gusty winds are more the result of the interaction between Beta and the large surface high over the Northeast. I know many of you have mentioned that the models have been worthless during Sally & now with Beta. Just remember with Sally, we did NOT have the amount of cooler and dry air surrounding her. The environment around Beta is far more hostile. Even IF the models are totally wrong and Beta continues coming our way, it is not much of a storm. Tropical systems thrive with a warm, moist environment around them, but that is not the case tonight. I'll probably not post again until after the 10 AM advisory tomorrow, unless something strange happens overnight. Stay tuned!