As the air flows around the western low and up over the ridge, winds from the SW are keeping the Canadian western smoke away from the lower 48.  However, the opposite is happening over the East.

So until the blocking pattern shifts/changes, the smoke will continue coming.  But models are indicating there will be some upper air changes.  Let's look at the charts for the next 5 days.

The top graphic is from this morning with the eastern upper low way stronger than the one out west.  The next map is valid for Saturday morning showing the eastern low lifting out to the northeast.  However, the next 3 have another low dropping down into the eastern trough.  What that should do is bring some welcomed rains to those eastern Canada fires.  It should also prevent a big upper ridge from forming over us for next week.  Right now, everyone is screaming big (95+) heat wave coming.  I don't see. it as everyday now our high is supposed to be 90.  To reach 95+, we need an upper ridge to form capping/limiting our daily cooling T-Storms.  We'll see.  Of more concerning is what the GFS is doing in the 10-14 day range  Take a look.

The GFS is trying to form a storm over the western Caribbean taking it across the Yucatan and into the central Gulf south of us eventually heading into Texas.  Do I buy that solution/  Nope, as I read Dr. Levi Cowan saying the GFS is notorious at trying to form systems in the Caribbean 10-14 days out.  Most often, it's wrong, but it's something to keep an eye on.

 On the surface map, a weak front is trying to sag down to us with much drier air behind it.  I don't think it'll have enough of upper support to drive it through, but it could get close enough to spark an increase in storms for Saturday & Sunday.

If you are lucky enough to get a cooling storm, it sure does make a difference.

It's 77 in Slidell while Baton Rouge is 93 & MSY 92.  Location makes a big difference.

Unless I'm reading the upper air models wrong, I don't see how we turn very hot & mostly dry next week.  We'll see.  You know we're not getting cooler until October!  Stay tuned!

Usually, but not always, lightning strikes the tallest object.   If it's a tower or tall building, the current is directed away the structure and into the ground.  Sometimes the golf flagstick is the tallest object around, but usually it's trees.  That's why it's important NOT to shelter under a tree.   Years ago, the rule of thumb was once you saw the flash, count the seconds it takes for the thunder sound to reach you ( say 5) and then divide by 5 to get how far away the strike was (1 mile) from you.

As my golfing partners (Marvin Bernstein, Ron Swoboda & Dr. Bill Jones) reached the 16th tee box, the lightning started popping and I knew it was time to get off the course.  We finished 16 and started down 17.  The beauty of modern technology and lightning is you no longer need to count the seconds and divide by 5.  Now it's all on your cell phone IF you activate the lightning feature on the FOX 8 Weather App.  It was telling me 1.8 miles away, 1.1 miles away, 0.3 miles away, yikes let's get off the course guys.  We did and, as the bottom 2 photos above indicate, lightning can kill.  The zoomed frame shows you the people still on the course as lightning struck.  That was in Atlanta back in 2015.  Be smart, get the FOX 8 Weather App, not just for radar or hurricanes, but also for LIGHTNING.

The other big story, especially over the Northeast, is the dense smoke coming down from the Canada wild fires.  Air quality warnings are up for many states.  The bottom view even has some smoke nearing north Louisiana.

The smoke is being brought southward by a persistent upper trough over the Great Lakes into New England.  The pattern has been stalled by a low off the West Coast & a ridge in between.  You can see that reflected in the temperatures at 11 AM

 It's really chilly out west and along the NE coast.  Under the upper ridge, it'll be typical summertime.

We'll continue with daily rain chances, but there are hints next week could see an upper high build across the southern states making for a heat wave.  Joy oh joy!  Stay tuned!  & get that weather app on your phone!

I've drawn the upper air flow on top of the satellite views.  The top shows low pressure off both coast with a strong high centered up over Canada west of Winnipeg.  The next view has a deep low off the East Coast that is driving down some very chilly air over the Northeast.  Normally, that cool air is clear & clear, but not this year as we have numerous wildfires blowing smoke plumes across Indiana, Michigan, Ohio & Pennsylvania.  Boston is 59 with showers...burr!  So where is our Summer Bermuda High?

Note on the surface map, there is no large Bermuda High/Atlantic ridge.  Instead we have a bunch of weak surface features/boundaries.  The above normal activity is bringing cooler relief to many while only a few have 90+ heat.

South Louisiana is seeing more action than north LA.  Locally, you can see who's getting wet as temps have fallen into the 70s. The T-Storms north of Lake P. have prompted warnings so pay attention up north.  One thing I noticed today is the increased in the ESE winds.  The buoy at Shell Beach has winds 15-25 mph!

Until the upper air pattern changes, I don't see any major changes here so expect our daily showers.  Some might say that it's "typical summertime", but now you know better!  Finally...

My former co-worker Howard Bernstein (1989-94 at Ch. 8) was storm chasing last week in west Texas.  He and 2 others were rewarded with this tornado sighting.  The tornado was about one mile from them and touched down in an area with no building or people.  As it dissipated, it took on the custom look of a rope.   I'll have more pictures from Howard tomorrow.  Yeah, yeah, I know NHC is following a thing near the Azores.  Let them have their fun!  Stay tuned!

From the remains of Arlene (top view), look out into the Tropical Atlantic & Caribbean,  South of 20 degrees (yellow line), there is very little happening.  North of that are many areas of low pressure, none of which are expected to develop.  The other big issue farther north is huge smoke plumes from wild fires over eastern Canada. (orange arrows)

There are 3 separate smoke plumes moving westward from Buffalo, Detroit to Milwaukee/Chicago.  The cold front diving down from northern Canada should help clean out all the bad air.  

The surface weather pattern has gone boring with the main driver of storms being daytime heating & weak upper lows.  We're June hot, but dew points are not like late July & August.  If you're lucky to get under a shower, you receive some brief cooling.

About the only thing that changes each day will be the location of PM T-Storms.  It will stay hot until October so I promise not to whine every day.  Stay tuned!

Clearly on the visible (daylight) view, Arlene's center is exposed (yellow arrow) with all T-Storms blown off to the northeast.  That is because there is a "hostile environment" across the Gulf with an unusually deep upper trough for early June.

If you look at the temperatures, you can see where the upper troughs are located.  As the Gulf trough shifts farther to the east, stronger NNW upper winds will drive what remains of Arlene farther to the south away from the northern Gulf coast.

There really is not much happening anywhere around us.  Any day we have dew points below 70 is a plus once we enter June.

The North Shore does have more clouds, and that will be where we could see a stray shower.  Rain chances will slowly increase as we head into next week getting back to typical summertime.

On this first day of the 2023 Hurricane Season, there are lots of swirls with clusters of showers from the Carolinas down into the Gulf and farther down across Cuba.  Most of the storms with TD # 2 remain off the Florida coastline and lots of dry air continues to flow around the system.

Almost all computer models take this system to the south & then to the east keeping it away from us.

It is not surprising that the official NHC forecast does the same. It's pretty obvious this system will not be a threat to LA/MS even if it becomes a Tropical Storm.

Tonight at 6:30 pm, the annual FOX 8 Hurricane Special, Weathering The Storm will air.  Chief Meteorologist Bruce Katz will lead the Weather Team in getting us thinking about what's coming down the road.  I'll be watching.  In the short term, look for no major changes for us through the weekend.

Summer heat has moved all the way into new England with cooling relief coming under some storms from the Carolinas towards the Rockies.

There have been a couple of spotty showers around today, but coverage remains well below average/normal.  Note the wave heights east of the mouth of the River!  

We have reached the time of the year where the 7 day becomes less helpful.  It will be hot & humid with daily rain chances, unless we have a tropical threat.  Since nobody puts out a hurricane tracking chart anymore (computers plot track automatically), I've partnered with Working Presses, publisher of Inside Northside magazine to produce a Hurricane Storm Guide that provides information you need to know before, during and after a storm.   

It will be available within the next 2 weeks and I'll let you know how to pick up your copy.  Stay tuned!

On the visible (daylight) view, I find 2 surface low level swirls, one off the Carolina coast 7 the other over the Eastern Gulf.  I've drawn in the upper trough that is producing very strong winds that are preventing T-Storms from developing around the surface center.  In addition, the upper trough is driving down drier air on the western side.

Right now, there are no storms forming around the center.  I've drawn in yellow what I believe might happen with the current center.  It may drift back towards/closer to us tomorrow before turning back to the south and then into Florida.  We could see some increase in showers on Thursday before we dry out again for Friday & Saturday.

This currently is and should continue to be a very lopsided system with us staying on the Drier side.  Florida will be on the wet side.

Showers have again been below normal/average today as our highs flirt with 90.

Rain chances go up a little for Thursday before going down again for this weekend, especially if something does form over the eastern Gulf.  So the question is, will Arlene be named?  Or will this system be like the Memorial Weekend system off the Carolinas last week?  Regardless, it won't give us any impacts aside from some higher tides & coastal wind gusts.  

 A reminder, tomorrow night is the annual FOX 8 Hurricane special.  I suggest you watch it.  Stay tuned!

As Hannah pointed out, the eastern Gulf is the typical location for early season development.

The water vapor loop clearly shows this is an upper air feature and not down at the surface just yet.  Models keep any movement very slow since the low is under an upper high to the north.  IF anything develops, we'll stay on the west (dry) side through this weekend.

In the short term, several heavy slow moving storms fired off this PM.  Some spots on the West bank received 1-2"+ while most of us stayed dry.

I don't see any major changes coming that would increase our rain chances so gardeners will need to keep watering.  Stay tuned!

f you're lucky enough to get a shower, you get some brief cooling like on the North Shore.  Otherwise, most of us flirt with 90 each day.

It is almost hot, but we're nowhere near the gawd awful heat of July-August (92-95+) and dew points 75-80.

There will be daily rain chances, but with the typical summer rain chances 40-50%, we should see below normal/average chances into the weekend.

Finally, today is Memorial Day, a day where we honor those who served their country to keep us a land of the Free.  it also is the day for the running of the Bolder Boulder race.

IF that happens, we'll be on the "dry side" with lower humidity/dew points making our air feel less hot.  Hannah pointed out last week that in 2022 we broke a streak of 7 straight years where the "A" storm happened before June 1st.  Regardless, this will not be our problem with the heavy rains far to our east.

During the next 2-3 days, those 40-50 dew points (very dry air) will spread farther down to the south making the rest of this week's forecast mostly dry.

In the short term, we do have some heavy boomers around this afternoon with some lightning & thunder.

Had a fabulous fishing trip with Captain Hylton Petit (holding net) & Johnny Lewis.  Johnny caught the biggest red (35+") while mine looks bigger because of the little fella holding it!     Stay tuned!

This morning Zack showed the computer model thinking.

If something does develop, it would drag down drier air/lower humidity over us.

I am watching another upper disturbance over the Rio Grande, but it appears that moisture will stay to our south.  The surface front has made its way off our coast and it is drier and slightly less hot.  The cloud cover should help too.  I'm posting early as I'm going fishing with Captain this afternoon.  Stay tuned!

The bottom satellite view shows my concerns regarding this front as the upper energy over Michigan is pulling to the east while another upper disturbance is moving through Mexico.  That SW upper flow (green arrows) should slow the front to a crawl as it staggers through SE LA/MS.

For sure, there are both temperature and moisture differences either side of the front.  What might happen is an area of low pressure off Florida's east coast next week finally pulls in some drier air?

The top view is today's satellite view that has some clouds with an upper low.  Zack showed the computer model thinking for later next week.

In the short term, we're hot & humid with some showers developing ahead of the front.   The wind shift line appears to have passed McComb.  It should be cooler/less hot the next several days mainly due to increased cloud cover along the dissipating front.  The Weather Channel mentioned an interesting fact this morning.

10 years ago today, an EF-5 tornado roared through Moore, Oklahoma.  Since then, we have not seen another EF-5 tornado, the longest streak in modern history.  Must be our changing climate?  Finally...

It was announced that Ed Muniz has died at the age of 83.  Ed founded the Krewe of Endymion and was very successful radio owner & politician.  I got to know Eddie back in the 80s when he invited me to be the "Endymion Meteorologist".  I would attend the Krewe's get together the Tuesday night before the Saturday parade and deliver the parade weather forecast.   I always (only 3 times did I call for rain) would close my forecast with ..."and no rain!  Hail Endymion!".  Ed loved it and I loved Mr. Ed.  Without Blaine Kern & Ed Muniz, Mardi Gras isn't the same.  But carry on we must.  Hail Endymion!

Stay tuned!

 It has bounced back up from around 6 feet over the weekend and is projected to rise to near 9 feet later this week before cresting and falling again.  Typically in the past couple of years when the Spillway was opened, the River level was 15+ feet.  Not going to happen this year which is good news for folks fishing Lake Pontchartrain.

Our upper air pattern is changing once again as the upper high over the Southeast is pushed to the south by a digging East coast trough.  That will bring sever opportunities to receive needed rainfall.  Let's begin with tomorrow.

The first frontal boundary will increase our clouds and shower chances Wednesday, but it will struggle to get very far past us.

The Saturday front looks stronger and should push down to the coast.  Neither will bring cooler air, but it will be drier (less humid).

We reached 90 degrees for the second straight day, but the clouds & more numerous showers tomorrow should keep us in the 80s.  Have the umbrella ready.  Stay tuned!

As El Nino strengthens off the west coast of South America, we already see increased western winds (shear) streaming across the Caribbean.  Another thing common with last year is several upper lows that tend to hinder any tropical development.   Let's hope this trend can last for most of the 2023 season?

Our other big story is MSY reached 90 for the first time this year.  That is no big deal and compares favorably with past years.

So now, when will the first name storm develop?  IF you believe in computer models, not for the next 10-14 days.  

Since the upper high, that kept us dry over the weekend, has weakened, look for daily rain chances enhanced by several weak frontal boundaries for the next couple of days.  Hannah detailed the timing on her 4 PM program.

The stronger "front" arrives late Saturday with the better rain chances ahead of it.  Drier air follows for Sunday & Monday.

We have reached the time of the year where fronts aren't cold anymore.  But we'll take less humid anytime!  Finally...

When smoke shows up on satellite views, you know it's a really big fire.  Look at western Canada, especially western Alberta Province.  Fires don't just happen unless they're caused by lightning.  I make an easy prediction for all of the western states that saw abundant winter rain & snows.  The moisture will produce lush vegetation that will become fuel for wildfires once the dry season sets in.  Geez, I'm a genius!  Stay tuned!

Dorothy died 2 months shy of her 90th birthday.  One of her favorite skills was painting with the ist green house being the home where I was raised on Sheffield Ave. in Hammond, Indiana.  The next is a painting of a fishermen (me!) determined to fish no matter how bad the weather!  The bottom two are not paintings but some kind of knitting.  The house on Butternut is no longer (tear down) and the bottom is a hurricane tracking chart (remember those?!!!)  Yes, Momma may be gone, but she always lives on in my heart.  Some of you still have your Mothers living.  Do you visit enough?  Have you called her only on her birthday or Mother's Day?  Don't wait until she's gone.  Memories are not good enough!

Not much happening around us with all the rain/storms far away.

There are signs an East coast trough will bring a frontal boundary near us increasing our rain chances for Tuesday & Wednesday.

In the short term, Monday will be hot as we keep trying to reach 90.  Today's high was 89.

A couple of storms have fired off in Mississippi & tomorrow could see more, especially across the North Shore.

Again, Happy Mother's Day and try bringing your Momma flowers on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Not because it's her birthday, but because she's still alive and you can tell her you love her!  Stay tuned!

Typically, we don't look east of the islands until later in July.  Most preseason activity forms closer to home & I've drawn in 2 such areas in green.  These appear to be upper air features and NHC has not started talking about them.  Just wanted to get you thinking about what's coming in several weeks.  Fortunately, a strong El Nino has developed & that should limit the number of storms to track in 2023.

 The upper trough remains over the Rockies with chilly air under it.  A weak upper high has kept rain chances low here, but we failed to reach 90 (87) at MSY.

A couple of storms have fired off in the last 2 hours, but they should quickly fizzle as the sun sets.  Little change is expected tomorrow with rain chances increases next week as the high leaves & an East Coast trough develops.

Look for a sunny start on Sunday with highs approaching 90 by 1-2 PM.  Shower chances should be less than 20%.  Happy Mother's Day to all!  Stay tuned!

The current upper pattern has the trough to our west with a weak ridge over the Southeast.  Radar matches the returns with the brightest clouds.  Look how the computer guidance builds the upper high over us.

We should see 3 straight days of 90+ before the high retreats southward ahead of a digging East Coast trough by Tuesday of next week.

With no fronts around us and an upper high building right over us, I just don't see much shower activity to keep us below 90.  

It's still pretty chilly unto the upper lows & trough.  All the severe storms are along the line of sharp dew point spreads. The DP in Wichita is 45 while in Tulsa it's 72!    

All the big storms remained well north of us, but they created an interesting shadow effect with the setting sun (yellow arrows).  I hate talking about the heat already since in won't change much for the next 4 months.  Until the heat index tops 105, I really don't get too concerned.  Gotta water my potted plants almost daily for the next 3 days.  Stay tuned!

You can follow the radar swirl moving along the LA/AK border into Mississippi with a very pronounced bow echo often indicating strong winds.  Under the clouds & rain, temps are in the 70s, while outside the rain areas, it's mid to upper 80s.

The tough that has been over the western states has evolved into several slow moving cut off upper lows. The graphic following the satellite view is this morning's upper air chart followed by the forecast for Saturday & Sunday mornings.  Note now the low over Denver lifts into South Dakota with another forming along the NM/TX border.  By Sunday, that pink reddish area over us is a weak upper high.  IF that proves to be reality, we should see a drier & hotter weekend with few, if any, showers.

Today's surface map has no fronts around us so all the storms to the north are triggered by that disturbance moving into Mississippi.

Under the upper lows, it's quite chilly.  The reason our rain chances won't go to zero this weekend can be found in the bottom dew point graphic.  Deep tropical moisture covers Texas, Louisiana into MS/GA.  Since our highs are now well up into the 80s, it won't take much to bubble up a spotty storm.  But as the upper high builds in this weekend, rain chances go down.  Keep up on the storms to our north for the next several hours.  Stay tuned!