Go get ‘em, Hayden.

Looking for Tuesday’s game threads? You have come to the right place.

The Cubs open a three-game series in Anaheim.

Tuesday notes...

• GET THOSE BATS GOING, PLEASE: The Cubs had just four hits Monday night. It was the fifth time in their last 10 games that they had five or fewer. They had made no more than five just six times in their first 49 games. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• STARTING PITCHING: Cubs starters in their last seven games since May 29 have posted a 2.36 ERA (nine earned runs in 34⅓ innings) and allowed 27 hits (.189 opponents BA) with 10 walks and 29 strikeouts, contributing to a 1.078 WHIP.
• LOTS OF GUYS ON BASE: The Cubs’ .328 on-base percentage ranks fifth in the National League, and their 223 walks rank third in the N.L.
• BUT: The North Siders are tied for the second-most left on base in the majors with 436, trailing only the Blue Jays (455).
• A HINT OF HEAT: Ian Happ has reached base in five of eight PA over the last two games (two hits, three walks).

Here are today’s particulars.

Cubs lineup:

Angels lineup:

Also of interest for tonight:

Hayden Wesneski, RHP vs. Tyler Anderson, LHP

Major League Baseball

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Hayden Wesneski has made nine appearances (eight starts) for the Cubs this year. Of those, seven of them can be characterized as “decent to excellent.” In the other two, yikes: 6⅓ innings, 13 hits, 12 earned runs, five walks, 2.842 WHIP, 17.05 ERA, five home runs.

So in the seven better outings: 2.70 ERA, 1.009 WHIP in 36⅔ innings, four home runs.

The talent is there, we saw it last September and in flashes so far this year. He just needs more consistency.

He’s obviously never faced the Angels or anyone on their active roster.

Tyler Anderson parlayed a very good 2022 season with the Dodgers (4.3 bWAR, made the N.L. All-Star team) into a three-year, $39 million deal with the Angels.

Whoops. Something must happen when traveling down the freeway from L.A. to Anaheim, because Anderson’s been pretty bad for the Angels so far this year. The White Sox hit him hard in his last start, May 30 on the South Side, one of four starts this year (out of 10) where he’s allowed at least five runs.

Anderson made two starts vs. the Cubs last year and posted a 3.75 ERA, with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings. A fair number of those Cubs aren’t on the team anymore. Nico Hoerner homered off him at Dodger Stadium July 8, 2022.

Statcast

Statcast

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.Here’s a list of providers currently carrying Marquee. It’s also on MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Angels market territories).

Here is the complete MLB.com Mediacenter for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit the Angels site Crashing The Pearly Gates. If you do go there to interact with Angels fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2023 Game Thread procedure will be like last year’s, similar to what we’ve used for Spring Training.

You’ll find the game preview posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game, including the first pitch thread and the overflow thread, as well as the recap when it’s published. The recap will also live on the front page as a separate post.

You will also be able to find the preview, first pitch thread and the overflow thread in the box marked “Chicago Cubs Game Threads” at the bottom of the front page (you can also find them in this section link). The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

The first pitch thread will post at five minutes before game time, then an overflow thread at 90 minutes after the scheduled game time.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Twenty-eighth in a series. Michael Fulmer was a much-heralded signing, but it hasn’t worked out for him at all. I don’t think he should buy a house in Chicagoland.

Oklahoma City native Michael Joseph Fulmer is a medium-name reliever who had a couple of good years with Detroit as a starter, and still throws pretty hard after having TJS in 2019, but his location isn’t great and he’s having a lousy time of it. 0-4/6.66 ERA/1.562 WHIP ain’t going to make it in MLB for long, not with 13 bases on balls in 24⅓ innings as a companion volume.

He’s really struggled as a Cub and has to be on the bubble. He can’t be optioned to the minors and so he sticks around and even gets into low-leverage situations. The Cubs can afford to eat what remains of his $4 million salary and probably should as soon as they have what they feel is a suitable replacement. Codi Heuer might be that guy. Nick Burdi and Brad Boxberger, also on the IL, are in similar circumstances, occupying spots on the 40-man roster that might be better filled with the likes of Daniel Palencia, Ben Brown, Bailey Horn, or Chris Clarke. Caleb Kilian, Michael Rucker, and Keegan Thompson are all ON the 40 and could well better that production, though Thompson has been struggling in Des Moines as well.

In any event, I don’t see where Fulmer is long for Chicago. I liked the signing but it hasn’t worked out and the sample size is big enough to draw conclusions. Patrick Mooney {$} thought he’d become the new closer.

“They had conversations about (closing), but I kind of inferred it as me having to win a job,” Fulmer said.

That thinking has changed some. And there’s no clear solution at present. The Cubs operate closer-by-committee mostly out of necessity as all of their options have turned bad. Eventually all of those dominoes will start falling, as by now it’s obvious that they are not Great Value, but, at this point, are actually Dollar General.

Fulmer has been especially bad. Opponents are hitting .275/.362/.484 against him for an .846 OPS. That’s definitely not sustainable, and the eye says that those numbers aren’t mistaken. The grand slam he gave up in Los Angeles is probably the most-remembered moment of his Cubs tenure, and the car to the airport is on standby.

The Cubs are in Anaheim for the first time in seven years.

The last time the Cubs played in Anaheim, it was the Opening Series of 2016. The Cubs took two games, 9-0 and 6-1, and you know what happened that year.

As the SB Nation Angels site is no longer being updated, here are some thoughts about the Angels from Jessica DeLine, who runs the Angels site Crashing The Pearly Gates:

The newly retooled Angels have a much different look than the team they put on the field in 2022. The elephant in the room is that Shohei Ohtani wants to win and he’s in the last year of his contract as an Angels. With that in mind, Perry Minasian set out to rebuild the roster. He did just that with varying degrees of success. Tyler Anderson was added to the rotation after coming off a career year with the Dodgers last season. So far he has not nearly lived up to expectations. Carlos Estevez and Matt Moore were also added to the bullpen, both of whom have been lights out – but Moore landed on the IL recently with a Grade 2 oblique strain. Bats were added in the form of Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, Hunter Renfroe, and Brett Phillips. Fan favorite Phillips is now gone and the other three have had varying degrees of success with Urshela leading the way in terms of raw ability to get on base.

Despite the desire to win, the Angels have hovered around .500 for much of the year. Sometimes it’s hard to know who this team is when they go from sweeping the Red Sox to getting swept by the Marlins in back to back series. They hit, then they don’t pitch. They pitch, then they don’t hit. They just haven’t seemed to get firing on all cylinders for any length of time.

Some exciting newcomers have joined the squad since the season began in the form of Zach Neto — the 2022 draftee who has become the Angels’ flashy regular shortstop — and Ben Joyce, who blows 102-103 heat at the best of MLB hitters coming out of the pen. Logan O’Hoppe, the rookie catcher also broke camp with the Angels but had a season-ending injury in April after starting the season on a tear. Oft-injured Anthony Rendon is also on the IL as of this writing.

These teams haven’t played each other since 2019 so this is going to be a fun series to watch.

Fun fact

The Cubs have played only seven previous games on the road against the Angels. They have played fewer at the home of only one current team: the Rays (5).

As noted above, Cubs’ last visit to Anaheim was for two games to open the 2016 season. Their starting batting order in the second game, on April 5, 2016: Fowler CF, Heyward RF, Bryant 3B, Rizzo 1B, Zobrist 2B, Soler DH, Russell SS, Szczur LF, Ross C. Fowler and Rizzo hit 2-run homers; Szczur, a solo shot. Jon Lester (seven innings), Trevor Cahill (two-thirds), Travis Wood (one-third) and Pedro Strop (one inning) combined on a no-walk four-hit shutout. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Tuesday: Hayden Wesneski, RHP (2-2, 4.81 ERA, 1.279 WHIP, 5.65 FIP) vs. Tyler Anderson, LHP (2-1, 5.47 ERA, 1.595 WHIP, 5.35 FIP)

Wednesday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (1-3, 7.05 ERA, 1.514 WHIP, 4.12 FIP) vs. Jaime Barria, RHP (2-2, 1.59 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 3.11 FIP)

Thursday: Drew Smyly, LHP (5-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, 3.80 FIP) vs. Reid Detmers, LHP (0-5, 5.15 ERA, 1.539 WHIP, 3.62 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Tuesday: 8:38 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside Cubs and Angels market territories)

Wednesday: 8:38 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside Cubs and Angels market territories)

Thursday: 8:38 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside Cubs and Angels market territories)

Prediction

The Cubs are 11-7 vs. LH starters this year. The Angels are sending two LH starters against them. Thus, I believe the Cubs can take two of three.

Up next

The Cubs continue their trip up the California coast to San Francisco, where they will face the Giants in a three-game series beginning Friday evening.

The Cubs reliever did it all, helping put his team in a first-place tie.

1963 was a watershed year for the Chicago Cubs. The widely-mocked College of Coaches was quietly ended. Bob Kennedy led the team for the entire year, though his title was still given as “head coach,” and the team got off to a surprisingly good start. A good 16-12 May had them in contention, led by two fine young hitters — Billy Williams and Ron Santo, both having their first big years — and the outstanding pitching of Dick Ellsworth, who had gone 9-20 with a 5.09 ERA in 1962. Entering June 1963, Ellsworth was 6-3 with a 1.28 ERA.

The Cubs went 5-1 to begin June, sweeping a doubleheader from the Giants at Wrigley Field June 5, putting them just a game behind first-place San Francisco going into a Thursday afternoon affair against the visitors from San Francisco June 6.

The game went into extra innings tied 2-2 after Williams hit a two-run homer off Juan Marichal to tie the game with two out in the eighth. The Giants began the top of the 10th with two singles and a sacrifice bunt, putting runners on second and third; Willie Mays was the runner on second. An intentional walk was issued to load the bases, and then Kennedy called on Lindy McDaniel, who had been acquired in one of John Holland’s better deals the previous offseason. The Cubs got McDaniel, Larry Jackson and Jimmie Schaffer from the Cardinals for George Altman, Don Cardwell and Moe Thacker.

From Edward Prell in the Tribune:

In came McDaniel. The record books will say that he made four pitches to retire the side and preserve the 2 to 2 deadlock. But he threw five times. The extra “pitch” was to shortstop Andy Rodgers, who had sneaked behind Mays, the runner on second base, while McDaniel was working on Ed Bailey.

Lindy had fooled Bailey on his dipping fork ball on a first pitch after the emergency call.

Suddenly, he whirled and fired to Rodgers, who put the tag on Willie before the startled Giant could scramble back to the bag, right arm outstretched. Willie said, “O, ----”, and the rest of his words were censored, a most proper deletion.

Now, considering this was written 60 years ago, the last sentence above was pretty scandalous for a major newspaper, even though no profanity was actually published.

Prell continued:

McDaniel struck out Bailey to end the inning. Strike two was a low pitch which ticked Ed’s bat. Then he fanned on another low swooper, bringing on a standing ovation which is becoming standard these days in the old park at Addison and Clark streets.

McDaniel was the first scheduled hitter in the bottom of the 10th. He had thrown just four pitches, so Kennedy decided to leave him in to bat for himself. This was fairly common in that era. McDaniel, entering 1963, was a .179 career hitter with one home run in 234 career at-bats, “not bad for a pitcher.”

Lefthander Billy Pierce had taken over from Marichal to begin the 10th for the Giants. He ran the count to 2-2 on McDaniel. The relief pitcher swung at Pierce’s fifth pitch and sent it into the bleachers in left-center for a walkoff home run and a 3-2 victory, putting the Cubs in a first-place tie with the Giants. It was the first time they’d been in first place that late in a season since 1945. 11,240 was the announced attendance that day, but it probably sounded like many times that number. Sadly, no video survives of McDaniel’s feats.

Walkoff home runs by relief pitchers were exceptionally rare, even that long ago. No one hit another one until Jim Hardin of the Orioles did it May 10, 1969, and the last such walkoff was hit in 1986 by ex-Cub Craig Lefferts for the Giants against the Padres. Just 32 pitchers have ever hit walkoff home runs and only 15 times was that by a relief pitcher (since 1915, per baseball-reference’s database).

The Cubs’ stay in first place was brief — just two days — but they stayed in modest contention until early August, hanging within five or six games before fading and finishing seventh, but with a winning record of 82-80, their first over-.500 season since 1946.

Lindy McDaniel’s big day, helping provide that 3-2 win over the Giants, happened 60 years ago today, Thursday, June 6, 1963.

It’s not as inexpensive to watch a Cubs game as it has been in recent years.

It’s been a while since we’ve looked at attendance and pricing patterns for the Cubs at Wrigley Field, and since they’re in the middle of a long West Coast road trip, I thought this would be a good time to do so.

The Cubs crossed the one million mark in total tickets sold with the last game of the last homestand and now stand at 1,010,252 tickets sold. That ranks eighth in MLB. The per-game average of 32,589 ranks ninth. Longtime readers of this feature will notice that those ranks are a couple of places behind where the Cubs ranked during their contention window in the last decade.

If the Cubs average 32,589 the rest of the year — 50 dates remain — that would equate to 2,639,709 tickets sold. That would be about the same as last year’s 2,616,780 tickets sold, which isn’t going to cut it for this franchise. Now, that average is likely to go up in June, July and August with better weather, but unless this team is contending in September, it could go back down that month, especially since the September home schedule includes games against the Diamondbacks, Pirates and Rockies, not usually among the top draws at Wrigley Field.

As is my custom, I now turn the rest of this post over to BCBer Lifetime Cubs Fan, who has prepared some pricing analysis. The rest of this post is from LCF.

Hello everyone! I am very pleased to serve up another main course of insights and perspectives to the Cubs attendance thus far in 2023 with a side of pricing analysis to assist you with your buying preferences for the remainder of the season (Can you tell I am awaiting for my dinner to be served on my flight from LAX – ORD?)

With the conclusion of the most recent homestand, the Cubs have played 31 homes games (55 total) with an average attendance of 32,585 per game. Comparing that to the first 31 homes games last year (also at 55 total games), where attendance averaged 31,857 per game, that is an increase of 2.3 percent year over year. Since the Cubs kept ticket prices near flat year over year (and likely the STH base was near flat as well), coupled with the team record in 2023 after 55 games (24-31) being close to their record last year after 55 games (23-32), what are elements contributing to the increase in attendance thus far in 2023?

After crunching numbers, my hypothesis for the three primary drivers leading to the increase in attendance are:

• Weather has been much more favorable
• Baseball has become more fun to watch
• No labor dispute in 2023

Let’s first take a look at the weather. For those curious, I have included the average High and Low temperature in Chicago (officially taken at O’Hare) from late March to mid-June. Given Wrigley’s proximity to the lake, the average temperature at Wrigley is likely 3-5 degrees cooler. Note: I am not a meteorologist, but I did live in Lincoln Park for 12 years and can personally attest it is cooler by the lake.

Next, looking at the MLB box scores, I gathered the temperature and weather conditions at the start of the game for the first 31 home games this year and last year. Though the average temperatures were materially similar (both years averaged about three degrees below the expected normal high temperature expected at O’Hare), the weather conditions were significantly different. See the chart below for more details

In 2023, 18 of the first 31 home games have been sunny/clear (58 percent), compared to seven of the first 31 games last year (23 percent). Many of us know first-hand how much different it is watching a Cubs games in April when the sun is shining vs. sitting in the shade with brisk lake winds chilling your bones. I witnessed from the Bleachers the Cubs defeating the Rangers on April 7 where the game time temperature was just 42 degrees, but with unabated sun. I didn’t wear a jacket the entire game and actually got some color on my face in the process.

Though it is a small sample size, The May 8-10 series against the Cardinals may be an example as to how weather can influence the attendance for a game. All three games were ‘Silver’ tier games, were weeknight games that started at 6:40pm, and all games occurred void of any promotions. Note: The average high temp in Chicago is about 65 degrees from May 8 to 10.

First game was 48 degrees and cloudy – Attendance 30.937

Second game was 59 degrees and partly cloudy – Attendance 32,693

Third game was 65 degrees and clear (the best weather of the three) and attendance was 36,413. I would be curious to hear from those reading this article how much weather plays into ticket buying situations when purchased less than a week before the game date.

The second key factor is baseball in 2023 is much more enjoyable for the fan to watch. I have been to three Cubs’ games this year (two at Wrigley, one at Dodger Stadium, all victories) and they all have been a complete joy to watch, and I feel the word is getting out that baseball is more entertaining. In my opinion, a huge component of this is tied to the improved pace of play.

Take a look at these charts. In 2022, 22 of the first 31 home games were three hours or longer, with the average game time lasting three hours and seven minutes

Comparing that to YTD home games in 2023, there have only been four games of three hours or longer, with the average time of games at Wrigley at two hours, 42 minutes. I was having a conversation with a friend of mine recently, where I indicated my perfect 30 minute window for game length is between 2:30 min and 3:00. Less than 2:30 and I don’t feel I have given myself the proper time to unwind and enjoy the surroundings and the game. More than three hours is simply a drag, even more so for night games where I have to work the following day.

Lastly (and it’s been nearly forgotten), there was a labor dispute in 2022 that likely contributed to some fans not buying tickets to early season games (and when the weather was less that ideal near/on the day of the game, last minute sales were minimal). In April 2022, there were four games with attendance at 26,615 or under. In 2023, there has been just one home game with attendance under 26,615.

Shifting gears as to how games are priced on the secondary market. Below is a chart that depicts the current average price (with fees) of a bleacher ticket by Game Tier on Seatgeek for the remaining 50 home games. As you can see, all tiers are more expensive for the casual fan buying a ticket vs. what a season ticket holder paid. This is a shift compared to previous years where a vast majority of games could be procured on the secondary market for less than what a STH paid. Of course this will shift depending on how the Cubs’ do the remainder of the season, as well as how weather is for each game, but there is a much better balance compared to recent years.

It is one data point, but I also went to the May 6 game against the Marlins, and a few hours before the game (and maybe an hour before the gates opened), the cheapest bleacher seat was $133 ($40.32 for the STH!) so games, at times, can be sold at a significant premium and be profitable. However, if you feel that being a season ticket holder in the Bleachers can be lucrative, check out the chart below which depicts the net amount for the cheapest bleacher ticket on SeatGeek relative to the STH price. I feel the days of making money as a STH have long since passed. Cubs management does a very good job of maximizing revenue.

As always, curious to hear your thoughts!

The Cubs offer little opposition in a 5-0 loss

Sadly the picture sums up most of this Cubs loss. A shot of Ian Happ watch Gary Sanchez’ homer sail over the left field wall. It was amusing seeing Sanchez in series for two different teams so close together. You might recall he had a rough game for the Mets against the Cubs on May 23 in which Joe Girardi was particularly hard on the former Yankee star. He looked the part of major league catcher Monday night, catching a shutout and hitting a two-run homer.

This was Kyle Hendricks’ third start back. Calling his results a mixed bag is probably a bit charitable. I’m mindful that he was a historically slow starter. While I always suspected there was something to do with his stuff struggling in cold weather, perhaps there is just something to getting into a groove. Kyle’s probably earned more runway than three starts and pal David Ross is likely to give it to him.

Hendricks did manage to work through six innings. One homer in 15⅓ innings over three starts isn’t egregious. I’m not ready to condemn him to failure for sure. But we, as a fanbase, gave Jameson Taillon a hard time while he struggled and Hayden Wesneski with much better results than Hendricks has had. So it’s fair to be a bit of a critic of these early starts.

To be fair, there was a play that Patrick Wisdom probably makes more often than not that he didn’t make in the third inning that would have saved a run. Even if he just gets a glove on it and eats it, the runner likely wouldn’t have scored and Hendricks escaped one batter later. If that plays is made, Hendricks scores a minimum qualification quality start. That bar is admittedly set low, but certainly it doesn’t represent a terrible start. Building up to six innings matters.

I’ve made it this far with nary a word about the offense. That’s because there essentially wasn’t one. The Cubs offense managed four hits, two hits and four hits ignoring Sunday’s outburst. The offense looks to be in bad need of some little blue pills that get a lot of advertising during sporting events. The lineup simply isn’t potent.

The Padres did a good job of shutting down Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki and that pretty much stifled the Cubs offense. Seiya did have what was probably the hardest hit ball of the Cubs game, but the Padres defense made a nice play and got the out. Miguel Amaya sent one deep to right to end the game.

So this is where we are. Looking for hard hit balls that were turned into outs as bright spots. The offense was stifled in three of the four games in San Diego. The Padres certainly have some very talented pitchers. But most of them are known much more for things they did in years gone by than anything they’ve done this year.

The Cubs jumped on the one young guy who started but got blown away by the three veteran Padres starters. They were fortunate to win one of the games where the offense was stifled. That’s the tragedy for this team if they don’t turn things around. The trio of Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly have given the Cubs plenty to work with. All of Hayden Wesneski, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks have given the Cubs at least one pretty good start.

When your starting pitching can keep you in three or four games every time through the rotation, you have to hope you can win better than half of your games. Unfortunately, that just hasn’t been the case. This team is still not buried, but they’ve blown a real opportunity to be competitive this year. To this point at least. Tomorrow isn’t set in stone.

The best news by far Monday night was that Cody Bellinger is heading to Arizona to get some work in. Hopefully he is ready to return when the Cubs return home next week. The Cubs have sorely missed that bat and that glove in center. When healthy, he still appears capable of being one of the better center fielders in baseball. Codi Heuer should return any day now. I have to wonder if there is any chance that he returns for Javier Assad who labored through two innings on Monday night and struggled to throw strikes.

The Cody/Codi’s could give a lift to this team. With any luck, Justin Steele is back on the field shortly. That would return the Cubs pretty close to full health. They likely need to make at least a little ground up over the next few weeks to stave off trade talks for yet another year.

Let’s try to find three positives even in defeat.

1. Ian Happ was on base in three of his four plate appearances. The Cubs had only eight baserunners all night, a good chunk of that was Ian. A single and two walks. Ian continues to rank among the top five in all MLB in walks. Even after some rough weeks, his on base percentage remains in the top 20 in all MLB.
2. Nico Hoerner reached twice with a single and a walk.
3. Yan Gomes picked up a hit in two at bats before being lifted from the game.

Game 59, June 5: Padres 5, Cubs 0 (26-33)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ian Happ (.059). 1-2, 2BB
• Hero: Nico Hoerner (.032). 1-3, BB
• Sidekick: Yan Gomes (.029). 1-2

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Kyle Hendricks (-.225). 6IP, 24 batters faced, 6H, 4R, 4K (L 0-2)
• Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.097). 0-4, 2K
• Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.081). 0-4, 2K

WPA Play of the Game: It was scoreless and there was a runner on first with one out when Gary Sanchez launched one deep to left for a home run. That gave the Padres all of the runs they needed. (.193)

*Cubs Play of the Game: Yan Gomes led off the second inning with a single while the game was still scoreless. (.038)

Yesterday’s Winner: Marcus Stroman (Superhero is 41-17)

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings:

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Marcus Stroman +19
• Dansby Swanson +11.5
• Justin Steele +10
• Adbert Alzolay +9
• Mark Leiter Jr. +7.5
• Nico Hoerner -7.5
• Michael Fulmer -8
• Jameson Taillon -10
• Patrick Wisdom -11
• Trey Mancini -15

Up Next: The Cubs move up the state a bit and end up in Anaheim to face the Angels. The Angels had Monday night off and find themselves at 31-30 and hanging out in the fringes of American League playoff contenders.

Hayden Wesneski (2-2, 4.81, 43 IP) slides into Justin Steele’s spot in the rotation for at least one turn. He threw pretty well in relief of the injured Steele last time out, allowing one run over 3⅔ innings. When he left that game, the runner was on first with two outs and more times than not, that runner doesn’t end up scoring. Hayden has flashed some signs of the pitcher everyone believes he can be. But his last start with the big club was on May 13 when he was tagged for seven runs in five innings.

The Angels will start 33-year-old lefty Tyler Anderson. Notwithstanding Monday’s clunker, the Cubs have been pretty good against lefthanded starters. Anderson is just 2-1 over 10 starts. He’s thrown 52⅔ innings with a 5.47 ERA. His last start was on May 30 when he allowed six runs in four innings on the south side versus the White Sox. Over his last seven starts, he’s trended up a bit, with a 4.97 ERA in 38 innings. But obviously, this year hasn’t been great for him. After spending the bulk of his career in the National League, the majority of Cubs hitters are familiar with hitting against him.

This game featured some of the worst calls ever, courtesy plate umpire Phil Cuzzi.

This recap of the Cubs’ 5-0 loss to the Padres Monday in San Diego is going to be a bit different than many others you read here.

First, because the Cubs had only four hits — all singles — and the all-righthanded lineup against Blake Snell looked about as impotent as the mostly-lefthanded lineup did Saturday vs. Yu Darvish.

But mainly, this game recap is going to be different because of plate umpire Phil Cuzzi.

CB Bucknor, Laz Diaz and Angel Hernandez are the umpire names we often bring up when talking about, well, umpires who aren’t very good. But Cuzzi has to be added to that group, and not just because of this game — Cuzzi has been a bad umpire for many, many years, as noted in this article from The Comeback.

Now, let me make this clear: The Cubs didn’t lose this game because of Phil Cuzzi. On the other hand, he sure didn’t help them, especially in the first two innings. Dansby Swanson got called out on strikes on... seriously, that’s not a strike:

Seiya Suzuki got called out on strikes on... well, that’s closer, but at least one of those pitches is not a strike.

The Cubs had two baserunners in the first inning. Nico Hoerner led off with a walk and Ian Happ singled after the Swanson “strikeout.” If more of those pitches are called correctly, maybe the Cubs score a run or two; they certainly had Blake Snell on the ropes, as he threw a bunch of pitches that weren’t strikes that got called strikes.

Top of the second, same thing — Miguel Amaya got called out on strikes on a pitch that was absolutely, positively ball four:

Rick Sutcliffe got all up in arms about these calls, and he’s right:

David Ross finally had had enough over this ball two call on Gary Sanchez, and got tossed [VIDEO].

You can hear Rick Sutcliffe’s righteous anger over those calls on the video clip, and he was right. The ump scorecard won’t be out until later this morning, but I imagine it’ll show at least a +1 and maybe even +2 for the Padres for potential runs. This had to be one of the worst-called games in many, many years.

The challenge system for balls and strikes is now being tested in Triple-A. If we had that system in effect in MLB this year, several of Cuzzi’s calls in the first two innings — both the ones that favored Snell and went against Hendricks — would likely have been overturned. Would it have made a difference in the game? Maybe not, but let’s get the calls right. I am hoping the challenge system will be in effect in MLB next year. Here’s another visual depiction of how bad Cuzzi’s strike zone was:

Honestly, I thought Hendricks threw pretty well. Six hits and four runs in six innings isn’t awful, and he didn’t walk anyone. He made one mistake, and Sanchez smacked it for a two-run homer, and the game was effectively over at that point.

Here’s a breakdown of Hendricks’ outing [VIDEO].

Here’s the only real complaint department call from this game, beyond the awful umpiring: While Ross put together that all-righthanded lineup against Snell, he apparently didn’t take into account Snell’s reverse splits this year. Including Monday’s game, LHB have an .885 OPS against Snell this year, and RHB are at just .687.

So the Cubs split the four-game series in San Diego, which I think was what many of us (including me) had thought would be a good result, and completed their season series against San Diego by winning four of seven. Honestly, the best thing about this game was that it ran just 2:29, meaning it ended about 10:40 Central time, not an unreasonable ending time for a West Coast night game.

Now they head up the California coast to Anaheim, where they will take on the Angels in a three-game series beginning tonight. Hayden Wesneski, filling in for Justin Steele while Steele is on the IL, will get the start for the Cubs. Tyler Anderson will start for the Angels. Game time is 8:38 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network (and MLB Network outside the Cubs and Angels market territories).

#Cubs, #MLB, and #MiLB news you can use, four days a week. The Cubs again failed to score. The rebuild is going as slow as expressway overhaul and has as many holes as a North Side backstreet.

Welcome to today’s episode of Cub Tracks news and notes™, a greatest-hits collection of Chicago-style beat writers and bloggers, ground from #Cubs, #MiLB, and #MLB baseball, overheated, steeped in writers’ tears, and then cold-brewed overnight for maximum flavor.

The Cubs brought their meatloaf into the last game of the series, hoping for some dessert in the form of a third win, against lefty Blake Snell. They put the big-bat RH lineup on the field to support the Professor in his second start back from the IL, with Christopher Morel in CF and Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya switching roles to put the rookie behind the plate. Snell has looked better lately, but he’s still a shell of what he once was. Or so the papers say, but the games are not played on paper.

Snell turned in a vintage performance. Hendricks did not. Phil Cuzzi didn’t help matters. But it isn’t like Kyle had any run support. The series ended in a tie.

* means autoplay on, or annoying ads, or both (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled sarcasm font in the comments.

• Michael Cerami (Bleacher Nation*): David Ross just got ejected for sticking up for Kyle Hendricks. “... Phil Cuzzi made some of the worst strike calls I have EVER seen in a game...” Andy Martinez has more.
• Logan Muller (670theScore*): Jon Heyman believes Cubs would ‘get a lot’ if they traded Marcus Stroman: ‘He’s been one of the best pitchers’ in MLB’. “I’m not wishing they become a seller. If they do, they would get a lot for him. He’s been great.” Evan Altman writes that Stroman is in the Cy talk.

Whether he ends up with some hardware or not, Stroman is showing that he can be more valuable to the Cubs as a long-term member of the organization rather than as a trade chip. Assuming, that is, the front office is indeed serious about trying to be competitive in the immediate future. It’s not like anyone in the Central is trying to run away with the division, so we’re not talking about much of an overhaul here. — Evan Altman.

• Tony Gill (NBC Sports Chicago*): Cubs have a BIG decision to make with Marcus Stroman [PODCAST}.
• Matthew Postins (Fan Nation*): Is Chicago Cubs Starter Taillon poised for turnaround? “Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy believes so...”
• Maddie Lee (Chicago Sun-Times*): Triple-A Iowa holds interesting options for Cubs’ bullpen depth. “Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy discussed the progress of several pitchers in Iowa, including Keegan Thompson.”
• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com*): Ben Brown’s path to Majors might be in bullpen. “It’s a good way to give them a Major League feel, get them competing,” Tommy Hottovy said. Matthew Postins has more of this. Aldo Soto also has some Brown.
• Andy Martinez (Marquee Sports Network*): A pair of Cubs could be nearing a return. “The Cubs are hopeful they’ll have a boost to their lineup soon.”
• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider*): This lefty-heavy Cubs lineup business should probably stop now. “Shouldn’t a designated hitter actually, you know, hit?”
• Matt Trueblood (North Side Baseball*): Miguel Amaya and the near future of the Cubs roster. “... the team is back to carrying 14 position players and just 12 pitchers, and it raises urgent questions about the roster status of a couple of position players.” Jordan Bastian says Amaya is flourishing.
• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): How Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson brings ‘captain qualities’ every day. “... Swanson has made a conscious effort to engage teammates, share his experiences and understand the organization’s long-term vision.”
• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): What’s next for Cubs and Cody Bellinger with trade deadline and free agency on deck? “For us, it’s about a combination of what we do (and what they do),” Scott Boras said.
• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com*): Christopher Morel breaks in a new glove, looks for his bat of old. “There is no grand experiment in the works to convert Morel into a first baseman — Chicago just wanted to get a look at him at the position.” Maddie Lee has more of this with a twist.
• Ron Berler (Medium.com*): Reach out to people now, before it’s too late. “How do you thank someone who has passed?”

Food for Thought:

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the opinions of writers whose work is linked to in this series of articles. Thanks for reading!

The late-night/early-morning spot for Cubs fans asks you what’s next for Marcus Stroman.

Welcome back to BCB After Dark: the late-night hangout for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. There’s no cover charge tonight, so come and join us. We still have a few tables available. If you have anything you want checked, let us do that for you now. Bring your own beverage.

BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.

I have family obligations on most Monday evenings, so I missed most of tonight’s Cubs’ loss to the Padres, 5-0. I did catch some of it on the radio and I saw the final inning after I got home. From what I caught on the radio and from what people were saying in social media, it looks like I missed quite the ump show. As well as another completely unimpressive display by the Cubs offense. At least it sounded like Kyle Hendricks pitched well except for the second inning.

Last week I asked the big question: Is it time to fire Cubs manager David Ross? It seems like the majority of you still have faith in Rossy, since 62 percent of you said “no.” Many of the people who voted “no,” however, mentioned in the comments that they might be willing to fire him at the end of the season.

Here’s the part where I talk about jazz and and movies. You’re free to skip ahead to the baseball question at the end. You won’t hurt my feelings.

Some of you are going to love tonight’s jazz selection and others of you are going to shudder in horror. Either way is fine with me. But I’ve mentioned before that there are few things that 21st Century jazz artists love more than covering Radiohead, so tonight we’ve got another Radiohead cover. This is Argentinian vocalist Karen Souza doing a lounge/bossa nova version of “Creep.” This appears to be from 2011.

I’m working on an essay about the 1951 science fiction classic The Thing From Another World, directed by Christian Nyby. Or maybe directed by Howard Hawks. There’s some controversy about that credit, which I’ll get into on Wednesday night/Thursday morning when I write the film.

For now, I’ll say that The Thing From Another World gets overshadowed by director John Carpenter’s 1982 remake The Thing. But The Thing From Another World is worth looking at in its own right. They’re very different films, to the point where it’s more accurate to say that the 1982 film is more of an homage to the 1951 movie than a remake.

Along with The Day the Earth Stood Still, also from 1951, The Thing From Another World kicked off the fifties science fiction craze that generally did big box office numbers with minimal budgets. The science fiction of the fifties still has a lot of fans today. This retro-futurism was explored in the recent Apple TV series Hello Tomorrow, proving the look of this era of science fiction endures. (If you haven’t seen that series, don’t bother. It looks terrific—the 2020s creating the look of what the 1950s thought the 2020s would look like—but the actual series is kind of a dull slog. But if you really like the look like I do, I suppose you can check out an episode or two and see if you can stick with it.)

It’s easy to believe that every science fiction film of the 1950s was about the Cold War. I don’t think that’s quite true. I don’t think there’s anything particularly “Cold War” about Fantastic Planet, for example. But most of them do deal with either an external threat (meaning the Soviet Union), an internal threat (the Red Scare) or world where science has went too far—or the atomic bomb. The Thing From Another World deals with both the external threat and a scientist who has gone too far, providing an internal threat. So all three dominant themes in one.

Fifties science fiction sometimes gets a bad reputation for the hokey special effects and the even hokier dialog. The budgets were often small and thus, the actors in them tended to be second-rate. The Day the Earth Stood Still and Fantastic Planet were certainly exceptions to this. The Blob also starred a pre-famous Steve McQueen, so sometimes they got lucky in that sense. The “Thing” in The Thing From Outer Space was played by a pre-Gunsmoke James Arness, although it’s not a part that requires a lot of talent. A flame-proof suit, perhaps, but not a lot lessons with Lee Strasberg.

But a lot of people find the low-budget nature and most of these films to be a feature, not a bug. Their very campiness makes them endearing in ways that today’s blockbusters simply can’t recreate. And when they try, they invariably fail badly. You can’t try to be so bad that you’re good. It just has to come naturally.

I’m going to throw it out for you to recommend any fifties science fiction films. Or if you just want to talk about the era and the genre, tell us what you like or don’t like about it.

Welcome back to everyone who skips the tunes and movies.

Tonight I’m going to ask you about the reigning National League Player of the Week, Marcus Stroman. If you’re a Cub fan, you probably know that, so far, Stroman is having the best season of his career. He’s leading the NL in innings pitched and WHIP (among qualified pitchers) and he leads MLB in bWAR for pitchers. He’s certainly an early candidate for the Cy Young Award.

If you’re a regular reader around here, however, you also know that Stroman signed a two-year deal that runs out at the end of this season. Yes, there is a player option, but Stroman would be foolish to exercise it with how well he’s been pitching. So he’s eligible to be a free agent at the end of this season.

Stroman has made it clear that he loves pitching for the Cubs and the fans have taken to him in a way that they have few others who have played for losing teams. The 32-year-old right-hander has said that he wants to sign an extension with the Cubs to stay in Chicago long-term. Reportedly, the Cubs have at least held “preliminary” extension talks with Stroman, but we all know how difficult it is to get one of those done during the season.

On top of that, if the Cubs are not in the playoff hunt, Stroman is the type of player that would fetch a king’s ransom at the trade deadline. Pitchers who are in the Cy Young Award conversation rarely become available mid-season. It should also be mentioned that Stroman is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having gotten (and accepted) one from the Mets after the 2020 season.

So tonight’s question is “Where go Stro?” Do you think the Cubs will sign him to a long-term deal? Will they trade him at the deadline? Or will he finish the year out here and leave as a free agent?

If you think Stroman reaches free agency and then signs a new deal with the Cubs, that counts as “Signing an extension with the Cubs,” in case you were wondering.

Thank you to everyone who stopped by this evening and especially thank you to everyone who commented. Or even voted. Please get home safely. If you need us to call you a ride, let us know. If you checked anything, let us get that for you. Tip your waitstaff. And come back tomorrow for more BCB After Dark.

——

Go get ‘em, Kyle.

Monday’s game threads? All right here.

The Cubs go for the series win.

Monday notes...

• WINNING IN SAN DIEGO: This is the seventh time that the Cubs have won two of three to start a four-game series at San Diego. They went 3-3 in the finales of the previous six series.

Their last Game 4 win was in 2010, after they had won the first 2 and lost the third. They had done the same in 1969, in the first such series. In 2005, the Cubs won, lost and won in the first 3, as they have currently, then won again. In 1996 and 2014, they went WLWL. They went LWWL in 1976. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

• DOUBLING THEIR PLEASURE: The Cubs have turned 58 double plays so far this year, third in MLB behind the Rockies and Orioles, and have had 13 in their last 16 games since May 20.
• MORE IN THE FIELD: Dansby Swanson has gone 40 consecutive games at shortstop since April 20 without committing an error (144 total chances).
• HE’S HOT: Julian Merryweather, last nine outings since May 16: 0.96 ERA, 1.57 FIP, 14 strikeouts in 9⅓ innings.

And in case you were wondering:

Here are today’s particulars.

Cubs lineup:

Padres lineup:

Kyle Hendricks, RHP vs. Blake Snell, LHP

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Hendricks improved over his first start with his outing against the Rays last Tuesday. He’s still a work in progress.

The last time he pitched in San Diego, May 9, 2022, he came within one out of a complete-game shutout, but was lifted after 116 pitches. Some say that game might have been the source of Hendricks’ shoulder issues that forced him to miss nearly a year. Before that one, Kyle hadn’t thrown that many pitches in a game since 2016.

But anyway, here he is, and more shutout ball vs. the Padres would be nice.

Blake Snell was getting hit hard by just about everyone this year. After allowing six runs in four innings to the Red Sox May 19, he had a 5.40 ERA.

But his last two starts, vs. the Nats and Marlins, have been better.

It’s a small sample size, but Snell has been much worse at Petco (5.68 ERA in five starts) than on the road (3.52 ERA in six starts). Might be just noise, as he was pretty much even home/road last year.

Yan Gomes (5-for-13, two doubles, a home run) and Trey Mancini (4-for-11, a home run) have hit him well in the past.

Statcast

Statcast

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.Here’s a list of providers currently carrying Marquee. It’s also on MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Padres market territories).

Here is the complete MLB.com Mediacenter for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Padres site Gaslamp Ball. If you do go there to interact with Padres fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2023 Game Thread procedure will be like last year’s, similar to what we’ve used for Spring Training.

You’ll find the game preview posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game, including the first pitch thread and the overflow thread, as well as the recap when it’s published. The recap will also live on the front page as a separate post.

You will also be able to find the preview, first pitch thread and the overflow thread in the box marked “Chicago Cubs Game Threads” at the bottom of the front page (you can also find them in this section link). The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

The first pitch thread will post at five minutes before game time, then an overflow thread at 90 minutes after the scheduled game time.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Suzuki is making better swing decisions and getting better results

The Cubs got off to a hot start offensively this season, however, over the last 30 days they’ve cooled off considerably. In March and April, they were among the hottest hitting teams in the National League by wRC+, wOBA, OPS, or whatever metric you wanted to evaluate. However, that was not true in May. In March and April the Cubs had a wRC+ of 118. wRC+ is a league and park adjusted metric that tells you how much better a team or hitter is at driving in runs than the average of 100, so the March/April Cubs were 18 percent better at driving in runs than the rest of the league. In May, the team’s wRC+ dropped down to 92, eight percent lower than the rest of the league.

That goes a long way to explaining why the team has struggled to get back to .500 over the last month. But it hasn’t all been struggles in May. At least one key player on the Cubs has been much better as the season went on, and if the Cubs are going to climb back into the playoff picture the Cubs are going to need Seiya Suzuki to continue along the path he’s been on in May. Today I want to take a look at what Seiya has been doing differently this month to see if it’s sustainable.

Seiya Suzuki started off slow this season, but over the last 30 days he’s been one of the top 20 hitters in the National League by wRC+, with a 146 during that time. May Suzuki has been 46 percent better than the league average hitter at driving in runs during that time period. Let’s take a look at his splits by month below:

A couple of things jump out of this table right away: Seiya is walking a lot more in May than he did in March or April. Interestingly, he’s not striking out more or less, but he does seem to be generating better results on the balls he’s hitting. There are some elements of this that seem process driven to me, and some that seem to be more rooted in luck, so let’s take a look at both.

I expected to look at Seiya’s hard hit percentage and find that he’s hitting the ball harder in May than he was in March and April. He is not. Early in the season he had a hard hit rate of 48.8 percent, in May that is actually down to 37.9 percent. So I decided to look at a metric that could capture the quality of at bats Seiya is having and his process. I played around with the 15-game rolling graphs on FanGraphs with wOBA and was impressed with the inverse correlation between Suzuki’s wOBA and his z-Swing percentage:

FanGraphs

First some definitions, wOBA is weighted on-base average, and it’s basically a fancy on-base percentage that gives you more credit for extra base hits than for singles and walks. z-Swing is a metric that tells us how frequently a hitter is swinging at pitches in the strike zone. Curiously, Seiya’s wOBA is inversely related to his in-zone swing decisions. In other words, he gets better results when he’s swinging at fewer pitches in the zone. That’s not to say he’s getting better results on pitches outside the zone (o-Swing) — his wOBA is inversely correlated to that as well:

FanGraphs

To my eye, these results indicate Seiya’s results are more about selectivity. When he’s seeing the ball better, he’s making better swing decisions on pitches in the zone. He’s not just swinging at everything in the zone, he’s making decisions about which pitches to swing at and doing damage on those pitches. Interestingly, at least for now, that selectivity is translating into forcing pitchers to throw him pitches he can do the most damage on, as well. You can see that in both the pitches Suzuki is seeing this season and the results he has on them at Baseball Savant:

Baseball Savant

You can look at his results on pitch type by month at Baseball Savant as well. I’ve simplified that table a bit so you can see Seiya’s results on fastball, breaking and offspeed pitches in April when he was struggling and in May when he was raking below:

It does appear that Suzuki has really dialed in his approach at the plate as the season has gone on. While his .393 BABIP in May suggests that some of this is luck on balls in play in addition to more selective swing decisions, one of the most impressive things I see in the data so far is that Suzuki in these numbers is that he’s making very good contact on every type of pitch right now. Being able to recognize the those pitches and wait on the ones he can do the most damage on suggests he’s creating some of that luck on his own. The Cubs will need him to continue to create that luck if they are going to get their offense back on track in June.

The Cubs righthander made two outstanding starts this past week.

Cubs righthander Marcus Stroman was named National League Player of the Week by Major League Baseball Monday afternoon. He’s the first Cub to win this award since Patrick Wisdom, two years ago for the week ending June 6, 2021.

The 32-year-old right-hander won each of his two starts last week without allowing an earned run. Over 15 innings, including a complete-game shutout, he allowed just five hits and four walks with 14 strikeouts.

Stroman threw his second career complete-game shutout over the Tampa Bay Rays at Wrigley Field last Monday, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning and holding the Rays to one hit and one walk with eight strikeouts in his 105-pitch outing, the first complete game for a Cubs starter since Alec Mills’ no-hitter September 13, 2020 at Milwaukee.

The Stro Show followed that up with six strong innings on Sunday afternoon at San Diego, limiting the Padres to one unearned run on four hits with three walks and six strikeouts in a 7-1 win.

Dating back to August 30, 2022, the 2017 Gold Glove Award winner has allowed no more than two runs in 16 of his 20 starts, posting 2.31 ERA (31 earned runs in 121 innings), which is the lowest ERA in MLB during that span and his 11 quality starts are the most in the Majors this season.

Congratulations to the Stro Show on this honor! Now get him extended, Jed.

Marcus Stroman just keeps on rolling.

Since the last edition of Three up, three down, the Cubs are 3-2. That’s good, and with a timely hit or two they might be 4-1.

So are things looking up or down? You make the call!

Three up

Marcus Stroman is likely headed to the All-Star Game

Stroman was the lead in this feature last week and his Sunday outing in San Diego, where he threw six innings and allowed just one unearned run keeps his good season rolling. Over Stroman’s last four starts: 0.93 ERA, 0.690 WHIP, just one home run allowed in 29 innings. During that span Stroman’s season ERA has dropped by nearly a full run, from 3.24 to 2.39.

I just love the little dance he does after this strikeout of Juan Soto on Sunday [VIDEO].

Here’s what he said about that:

Miguel Amaya could be in the big leagues to stay

Amaya was recalled Friday when Justin Steele was placed on the injured list, and broke out in a big way Sunday, hitting his first MLB home run and going 3-for-3, reaching base in all four plate appearances.

Here’s another look at that home run, along with the data [VIDEO].

The ball was retrieved for Amaya:

“While I was running the bases, seeing everybody cheering the home run, my mind went to my parents probably jumping at home,” Amaya said. “It’s something that I’m going to remember the rest of my life.”

Amaya’s home run ball was found in the bullpen and returned to him. He plans to send it to his parents in Panama.

It’s only 21 MLB plate appearances for Amaya, but .375/.450/.563 is still pretty impressive. Unless the Cubs really feel like they’re getting value out of Tucker Barnhart’s defense (and I don’t believe they are — the team is 6-17 in games started by Barnhart), they should just release Barnhart and split catching time between Amaya and Yan Gomes.

Julian Merryweather probably deserves some more high-leverage innings

Merryweather had an awful first outing this year, allowing five runs in two-thirds of an inning to the Brewers April 2. As you might recall, I was very critical of him then.

In 23 appearances since that game, Merryweather has a 2.31 ERA and 1.243 WHIP, with 31 strikeouts in 23⅓ innings. His FIP is good, too, at 2.77 in that span.

The walk rate is still a bit high at 3.8 per nine innings for the season, but you can’t argue with the K rate, 11.6 per nine innings. With the bullpen still in a bit of flux, perhaps trying Merryweather in a more prominent setup role could be useful.

Honorable mention to Jameson Taillon, who had a very good start against the Padres Saturday. Hopefully that continues next time out, which should be Thursday in Anaheim.

Three down

Time to go, Tucker Barnhart

I mentioned Barnhart above, but he’s just been terrible offensively — a .429 season OPS and since his last hit, he’s gone 0-for-17 with seven strikeouts. The Cubs are 6-17 in games he’s started (thus, 20-15 in games started by other catchers). He’s not throwing out baserunners, just five in 22 attempts. I’m sure he’s a good teammate, but he just can’t play anymore.

Barnhart is under contract through 2024. He’s got a $3.25 million player option which he’d obviously exercise. It’s not that much money, the Cubs should just eat it and release him.

Miles Mastrobuoni is just not working out

Since the last update in this series, Mastrobuoni has started three games and gone 1-for-10 with three strikeouts. His OPS is just slightly higher than Barnhart’s at .467.

Jed Hoyer needs to take him off this roster so David Ross isn’t tempted to play him again just because he bats lefthanded.

Edwin Rios: Same

Some people say: “But Rios has power!”

It should be noted that Rios’ best power seasons were his first two with the Dodgers. In 2019-20 he batted .260/.338/.634 (32-for-123) with eight doubles, a triple and 12 home runs. That’s good!

Since then in the big leagues? .164/.258/.339 (27-for-165) with two doubles and nine home runs. Just one of those home runs has come in 28 at-bats with the Cubs.

Again, David Ross keeps playing him — occasionally — because he stands in the lefthanded batter’s box with a bat. He cannot hit. He’s struck out 16 times in those 28 at-bats. Please, Jed, let Rios go so that Ross can’t put him in the lineup.

Marcus Stroman was excellent again in this 7-1 win.

At this point, you can almost feel the two halves of the Cubs multi-personality team dueling for control. It’s like one of those 80’s cartoons where there was the angel over one shoulder and the devil over the other. On Saturday evening in San Diego, the Cubs were a team that featured basically no offense. On Sunday afternoon in Chicago, their pitching staff stifled the Padres en route to a fourth win in six games.

I mentioned it after the Saturday game. The Cubs have won one game in the last month where they allowed more than two runs and two in the last two months. If the other team gets three, the Cubs are in a lot of trouble. But, when their pitchers do hold the other team to two or fewer, the offense is on the spot. They’ve only lost one game in the last month where they allowed two runs or less and still lost.

Of course, most of the time any team, good or bad, wins when they allow two or fewer. The striking thing is how consistent the two halves are. When the pitching is on, the hitting comes through enough to win. When the pitching is off, the hitting isn’t bailing them out by winning a high scoring team.

The thing is, Cubs starting pitchers look pretty up to the task of having that bar down there at two runs or less. They had one terrible road trip in mid-May, but otherwise they’ve been pretty good. If the bullpen would snap into line, maybe this team could win enough of these low scoring games to hang around in the playoff chase. In an inept NL Central, hanging around looks like it could be enough. The Brewers look like the only team that can sustain any high level of play and even with them, it disappears for stretches of time.

The thing is, the Cubs wins aren’t in fact all low scoring. That’s the oddity about not grabbing a few high scoring wins. They do score a fair number of runs, but their results are stratified and they seem to score in bunches. Is there some bad sequencing there? Without doing any difficult math, the Cubs are averaging right around 4.5 runs per game. Intuitively, they should jump up and win some 4-3 and 5-4 games. Maybe even sweat out a 6-5 once in a long while. This team has scored 10 or more runs eight times already this year. Basically a little over every seven games they are doing so. So they should jump up and win a high scorer eventually.

We’ve listened to the experts tell us for a long time that they can’t statistically find long term evidence of clutch. All of the players bristle around that as they will all tell you they had that one teammate who always came through in the moment. And none of them will do more than whisper about the guy who shrunk from the moment. So here’s the deal on that. Either there is some strange sequencing of results or we are accepting a narrative that Cubs hitters perform better when they are getting a strong start.

That was certainly the case on Sunday. A team that had managed four and two hits in the first two games of the series busted out with 11 hits and three homers. Even with three double plays against them, they still put seven on the board. Notwithstanding occasional terrible lineup choices, this offense is capable of scoring in bunches. These starters, particularly when Justin Steele is healthy, are capable of making life very difficult for opposing teams.

No matter how many ways I’ve sliced the numbers, I’m left with a Cubs team that should be better than its results to date. The bullpen is the clear exception to that argument. They have got to find some dependency. Even if they can’t display the kind of bullpen mastery the best teams do, they have to at least emerge with three dependable guys who can pitch the last three innings to nail down a win.

I believe that at some point this offense is going to hit their way to some wins. If the pitching staff can be the kind of strong staff that is suggested by the quality of this starting rotation, then this team can still make a run.

It isn’t how you start, it’s how you finish. So here I am, a person who only thought they’d win 75 games, and as someone who has been as frustrated as anyone in the early going, suggesting it isn’t over yet. The NL Central should have run off and left this team in the dirt while it was trying to find its identity. But no one in the division is really capable of that.

The fun thing about this Cub team is that other than Marcus Stroman, you have a hard time identifying any key player this team would reasonably trade away and take the legs out from under this team. Remember that this is a team that traded four relievers at the deadline last year and played significantly better afterward. Their relievers had been their strength, but then the rotation emerged down the stretch and when asked to cover less innings, some relievers without long pedigrees stepped up and did what needed to be done.

After Stroman, is Yan Gomes the next most productive player on an expiring contract? The kind of player that could be traded? This team is just not going to be a massive seller. Of course, someone might offer a king’s ransom for Stroman. That’s going to be tempting. But there are going to be people in the Cubs front office who thinks that it’s possible that this team could get hot and make the playoffs. This team didn’t grab Dansby Swanson to be good three years from now.

Dream a little dream. But first? First they have to survive this west coast trip. They sure are off to a good start. Let’s find three positives from this performance.

1. If I’m going to write close to 1,000 words about this team following the lead of its pitching staff, then I’ve got to recognize the guy who goes out and gets the job done. Marcus Stroman won his fourth straight start. My preseason pick for best Cubs starter threw six innings allowing four hits, three walks and one unearned run. That’ll play.
2. Miguel Amaya had the best day of his young career. Three hits, one of them his first major league homer and he was even hit by a pitch. Small sample size numbers are so much fun. as he crosses 20 major league plate appearances, he now has a line of .375/.450/.563 (wRC+ 176). Those numbers are absurd, particularly for a player with almost no experience at Triple-A. Fully healthy, he appears to be forcing his way into the roster conversation at the major league level. Even if you feel you must keep the offensively lost Tucker Barnhart on the team, get rid of one of the bats like Edwin Rios, who doesn’t get into games very often. At least with catchers, there is a natural opportunity to get them into the game.
3. Yan Gomes’ season is no small sample size. With 126 PA, he has a line of .271/.294/.458. He’s only really had one year in his career where he had a decent walk rate. So the on base is never going to be much (this is almost exactly on his career average). 2018 was the last time he got significant playing time with a slugging percentage around the .450 mark. At 35 years old, this is a bit of a surprising development.

Game 58, June 4: Cubs 7, at Padres 1 (26-32)

Fangraphs

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Marcus Stroman (.114). 6IP, 26 batters, 4H, 3BB, 1R (0ER), 6K (6-4)
• Hero: Yan Gomes (.104). 2-4, HR, RBI, 2R
• Sidekick: Ian Happ (.092). 1-3, BB

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.044). 0-4, K, DP
• Goat: Patrick Wisdom (-.037). 1-4, 3K
• Kid: Mike Tauchman (.000). 0-1, K

WPA Play of the Game: With one out and a runner on second in the top of the first inning, Ian Happ singled, giving the Cubs their first run. He moved to second on an error on the play. (.103)

*Padres Play of the Game: The six highest WPA events were all in the Cubs favor. That left the Padres top moment one that came in the very first inning as well. Ryan Weathers struck out Dansby Swanson one batter in front of Happ’s RBI-single. (.042)

Yesterday’s Winner: Dansby Swanson (Superhero is 40-17)

Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings:

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Marcus Stroman +19
• Dansby Swanson +12.5
• Justin Steele +10
• Adbert Alzolay +9
• Mark Leiter Jr. +7.5
• Michael Fulmer -8
• Nico Hoerner -9.5
• Jameson Taillon -10
• Patrick Wisdom -11
• Trey Mancini -15

Up Next: With two wins in the bank, the Cubs can do no worse than a split with the Padres. Based off of winning two of three wins in Chicago, the season series is locked. So the only question here is win the series outright or settle for a split.

Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 3.86) will make his third start for the Cubs in his return from injury. The last time was starting to look quite a bit more like vintage Kyle. Against a potent Rays team, he allowed one run on six hits and three walks over five innings. He’s not going to be able to survive with that much traffic. The good news so far is that he has kept the ball in the park. In recent years, that was increasingly a bugaboo.

The Padres feature 30-year-old lefty Blake Snell (1-6, 4.50, 56 IP). Snell hasn’t been terrible, for the most part. He did get rocked around on May 19 at home against the Red Sox. But in the two starts since, both on the road, he allowed one run over 11 innings in two no decisions. He has started against the Cubs this year and he was the losing pitcher in that one. But again, not too badly. Two runs on four hits in five innings. His problem was five walks and only throwing 58 of 105 pitches for strikes. With Sunday’s win, the Cubs are 11-6 against left-handed starters. They’ll look to make it two in two days.

How do you make a memorable (but wholesome) broadcast gaffe?

Happy Monday, friends. I hope your weekend was wonderful, I hope you remembered to wear sunscreen outside and that the mosquitos were at a minimum wherever you were. And most of all I hope you enjoyed spending some time watching baseball.

We are fast approaching the All-Star Break (excuse me, how is it June already?), and my annual tradition of complaining about the ASG being blacked out to Canadian MLB TV subscribers is already ready to go. (Also, the fan vote is active if you want to send some Cubs to the game.)

The Cubs obviously had a pretty good weekend, but they weren’t alone. Liam Hendriks had a win on a pretty meaningful day; the Yankees made some incredible plays; and one Red Sox announcer realized he should probably turn off Siri on his phone when the Rays are in town.

All that and more int today’s links, so let’s jump into it!

• Alex Eisert assesses how more and more often batters are losing out in a long at-bat.
• Liam Hendriks collected his first win back and it couldn’t have happened on a more perfect day, as he finished off the Tigers in the ninth inning on National Cancer Survivors Day. Story by Scott Merkin.
• Aaron Judge shared his thoughts on that viral “Arson Judge” trade rumor over the winter. Story by Wilton Jackson.
• Alden Gonzalez looks at why the Dodgers are just so darned good this year.
• It’s rare for me to say Rob Manfred did something right, but Matt Snyder looks at how the pitch count is shortening games and bringing more fans to the park.
• Former Giants manager Roger Craig has passed.

• Jay Jaffe looks at how well Francisco Alvarez is doing working with Mets pitchers.
• Bryan Hoch shares how the Yankees used small ball to win their weekend series.
• Tom Verducci gets into the historical significance of Aaron Boone’s many many ejections.
• Seems like players are getting benched more often this season for lacking hustle. Marcell Ozuna was pulled from a game for his lackluster play this weekend. (ESPN)
• A Red Sox announcer set off his Apple Assistant during a game by announcing Rays’ player Jose Siri. Story by Theo DeRosa.
• Jayson Stark offers the five wildest stats of the 2023 season so far. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Dang, now that’s a catch.

• Cole Jacobson offers five high-drama series to pay attention to this week.
• Josh Lester’s first MLB hit came in clutch for the Orioles. Story by Ben Ross.
• Jon Singleton is back in the majors for the first time since 2015. Story by Wilton Jackson.
• Mandy Bell shares a must-read ode to Sarah Langs.
• Zachary Petit looks at some genuinely incredible Japanese baseball uniforms that must be seen to be believed.
• Now here’s one you don’t see every day.

And tomorrow will be a better day than today, Buster. Make it so.