The summer freight-market spike is beginning to lose momentum, but that should not be mistaken for a return to last year’s conditions. Shipment volumes softened again in July, while truckload rates remained well above both prior-year and normal seasonal levels.

The disconnect between demand and pricing continues to define the market. There is not substantially more freight moving through the system. Instead, there are fewer trucks available to move it, and a greater share of freight is falling out of contract routing guides and reaching the spot market.

As the market moves into early fall, shippers should expect greater stability than they experienced around the Fourth of July. However, the margin for absorbing disruption remains thin, and several seasonal, economic and cross-border risks could quickly tighten conditions again.

Higher Rates Are Not Coming From Higher Demand

Freight shipment volumes declined 4.8% year over year in July and fell 2.2% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Accepted truckload volumes also tracked approximately 2% to 4% below 2025 levels through much of August.

Imports increased 4.5% from June, but year-to-date volume remained 0.9% below last year. Some import activity arrived earlier than usual as businesses moved shipments ahead of potential tariff changes. As that pull-forward activity fades, import-related truckload demand could remain softer through the remainder of the year.

At the same time, dry van load posts were up 27.2% year over year in mid-August, while available truck posts were down 26.4%. That does not indicate a broad freight-demand boom. July spot load postings actually declined 20% from June as the summer surge passed, although they remained nearly 30% above last year.

The increase in spot activity is primarily a change in how freight is being covered. As older contract pricing and routing guides struggle to keep pace with the market, more shipments are moving beyond primary carriers and into backup strategies, mini-bids and the spot market.

Dry Van and Reefer Rates Are Cooling, Not Normalizing

Dry van spot linehaul averaged $2.25 per mile in mid-August, excluding fuel. That was down slightly from the prior week but remained 38.4% above the same period last year and 25.8% above the nine-year seasonal average.

Monthly data tells a similar story. Dry van linehaul declined from July’s peak, but it remained approximately 37% higher year over year. The market appears to be past its largest summer increases, yet rates are settling into a range that is fundamentally higher than the one shippers experienced in 2025.

Refrigerated freight is easing more gradually. Reefer spot linehaul averaged $2.63 per mile in mid-August, 33.7% above last year and 25.4% above the nine-year seasonal average. The reefer load-to-truck ratio remained elevated at 18.62, compared with 10.34 one year ago, while available reefer truck posts were down 30.5% year over year.

Southeast produce pressure is fading, but refrigerated conditions will remain highly regional. Harvest activity in the Upper Midwest is already creating localized tightness, while the Pacific Northwest is entering a period of increasing seasonal demand. Rates in those markets may strengthen through the fall harvest and into Thanksgiving even as national averages continue to ease.

Contract Pricing and Routing Guides Are Catching Up

Broader truckload linehaul pricing increased 2.3% from June and 8.6% year over year in July. Because this measure includes both spot and contract rates, the entire increase should not be interpreted as a contract-only move. However, the direction is consistent with growing pressure on contract pricing.

Shippers are increasingly adjusting contracts and conducting mini-bids to secure reliable service and reduce exposure to spot-market volatility. Contract rates typically respond more slowly than spot pricing, but the summer surge is now influencing negotiations and routing-guide changes.

Those adjustments are beginning to improve routing-guide performance. North American route-guide depth improved from 1.45 in June to 1.41 in July. Long-haul performance also improved, but shipments longer than 600 miles remained significantly more challenged than they were a year ago.

Route-guide failures have fallen from their Fourth of July peak, and overall tender rejections have settled near 13.5%. The market is more manageable than it was during early July, but shippers still have fewer reliable backup options, particularly on longer-haul freight.

Capacity Remains the Structural Constraint

Stronger pricing has not produced a meaningful capacity expansion. Class 8 tractor orders fell to approximately 12,000 units in July, down from 18,444 in June. The prime-age tractor population was unchanged month over month and down 1.8% year over year.

The average tractor age remains at 6.3 years, its highest level in more than a decade. As a result, carriers must direct a large share of equipment investment toward replacing aging tractors before they can add meaningful net capacity.

Employment is telling the same story. Trucking added only 100 jobs in July. Carriers are using the improved rate environment to stabilize their businesses, retain drivers, replace equipment and absorb higher operating costs rather than aggressively expanding their fleets.

This is why the current recovery differs from a typical demand-led cycle. The market is tightening because supply has contracted. With less excess capacity available, even modest disruptions can produce an outsized effect on rates and service.

Manufacturing Provides Support, but Growth Is Concentrated

Manufacturing continues to provide a floor for freight demand. The manufacturing index increased to 55.6 in July, marking a seventh consecutive month of expansion, while new orders reached 56.7.

For-hire trucking ton-miles also improved in June, increasing 0.6% from May and 1.3% year over year. This represented the strongest level since the third quarter of 2022.

However, the recovery is not broad-based. Much of the growth is concentrated in the infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence and data centers, including electrical equipment, machinery and related wholesale activity. Sectors connected to housing and discretionary consumer spending remain considerably weaker.

Manufacturing is supporting freight volumes, but it is not yet strong enough across the wider economy to create a broad demand recovery.

Fuel and Tariffs Add New Cost and Volume Risk

Diesel prices were hovering around $5.60 per gallon in late August. U.S. inventories remained approximately 10% below last year despite refineries operating near 97% utilization. Strong distillate exports have limited the normal seasonal inventory build, making meaningful near-term fuel relief less likely.

The increase in diesel from July to August added an estimated 6.8 cents per mile to the inferred fuel surcharge. This is an important distinction for transportation budgets: linehaul pricing can decline while all-in costs remain elevated because a larger portion of the total rate is being consumed by fuel.

The Canada-U.S. tariff dispute adds another layer of uncertainty. The United States imposed 50% tariffs on C$27.6 billion of Canadian goods beginning August 22. Canada will respond with tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on an equivalent value of U.S. goods beginning September 8.

For cross-border transportation, the risk exists in both directions. Canadian buyers may delay purchases or shift toward domestic and alternative foreign suppliers, reducing northbound U.S. export volumes. U.S. tariffs may also reduce southbound demand for affected Canadian goods. In the short term, businesses may adjust shipment timing around implementation dates. Over time, sourcing changes could alter cross-border volumes, commodity mix and lane balance.

Outlook: Stable Until Disrupted

The base case for early fall is that spot rates continue to settle but remain significantly above 2025 levels. Contract pricing should stay firm as agreements and routing guides gradually catch up to the higher spot environment.

That relative stability should not be confused with resilience. Hurricanes, Brake Safety Week, fall harvests, holiday demand and continued capacity enforcement could tighten the market quickly. On the demand side, labor-market weakness, higher interest rates, persistent inflation, fading import pull-forward activity and tariff-driven cross-border declines remain important risks.

Shippers should revisit lanes priced using spring data, particularly long-haul and refrigerated freight. Fuel and linehaul should be evaluated separately so the true drivers of transportation cost remain clear. Intermodal should also be considered on eligible lanes where service requirements allow it and elevated truckload pricing creates a meaningful savings opportunity.

The summer spike is easing, but the structural supply problem has not been resolved. The market may look stable under normal conditions, yet it has less capacity available to absorb disruption. Planning for that fragility will be essential through the remainder of 2026.

Bison Transport

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