The trucking market does not turn on headlines. It turns on supply, demand, and cost.

In this January market update, Shaun O’Malley walks through the data that actually matters, not to predict short-term volatility, but to understand where the North American freight market is structurally headed. The takeaway is not dramatic, but it is important. Capacity remains available, demand is under pressure, and rates continue to lag the real cost of operating a truck. That combination is not sustainable forever.

Watch the full video below for Shaun’s perspective, then read on for the key themes shaping the market as we move into 2026.

Capacity Remains Available, but the Market Is Not Healthy

While FMCSA authority data suggests tightening, those figures can be misleading. A cancelled authority does not always mean a truck or driver has exited the market. Employment data shows trucking jobs back to mid-2021 levels, but that alone does not account for changes in productivity or total miles driven.

What matters most is freight volume. The CASS Freight Index shows shipments declining throughout 2025, with December marking the weakest month since early COVID shutdowns. Despite some moderation in supply, there is still more capacity than freight moving through the system on average.

Rates Lag Behind the Cost of Trucking

The bigger issue is economics. ATRI data puts the average carrier cost at roughly $2.26 per mile, including fuel. For most of 2025, national spot rates were below that level, only rising above cost late in the year.

This gap explains the steady flow of carrier exits, bankruptcies, and consolidations. Financial stress is also showing up in lender data, with impaired trucking loans rising sharply. Trucks may still be on the road, but many carriers are operating under sustained pressure.

Demand Signals Are Mixed and Cautious

On the demand side, consumers remain cautious. Value-focused retailers are outperforming discretionary-focused ones; inflation remains sticky; and consumer confidence continues to slide.

Manufacturing and housing, two key freight drivers, are also uneven. US manufacturing employment and housing starts remain under pressure, while Canada has seen stronger housing activity but similarly weak manufacturing. Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on industrial freight across North America.

What Comes Next?

Supply is sticky, demand is soft, and rates remain below sustainable levels. Historically, that combination does not resolve smoothly.

Freight markets move along a spectrum from commodity to service. In loose conditions, price dominates. During disruptions, service and reliability quickly regain value. Even in an oversupplied market, regional events can tighten capacity and move rates fast.

The pressure is building. The only real question is where the release point will be.

Watch the full video above for Shaun’s perspective. If you have questions about what these trends mean for your network, connect with your Bison account team.

References:
Trucking Payrolls: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES4348400001
Consumer Sentiment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT
Carrier Attrition Article: https://www.truckingdive.com/news/fmcsa-grants-reinstatements-revocations-operating-authority-2025-data/808968/
Walmart Article: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/walmart-earnings-ecommerce-rcna244853

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